The key price thread

[Sparkle Tea Time]

It's pretty disappointing seeing Key prices go higher and higher.

 

There is no mistake, traders killed Refined, I am really glad I bought a lot of CS:GO Skins for Refined metal for security.

[❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤]

Its possible, by creating something that makes refined more desireable again. Of course, this will only be a temporary effect. See: Bread Boxes craftable with 4 refined.

next bread boxes will need 20 ref to craft that miht limit the ref supply a bit.

[Chbzsk]

I think it's stuck at 17 for now

[Fenrir]

I think it's stuck at 17 for now

 

No -- buttholes on outpost will drive the price up some more

 

Anyways, i think Valve should make a premium only blueprint that has refined actually doing something.

[TFD Roberto del Fuego]

I've been a small part of the trading community for a while, and I've been around since the key prices were at the level 2.55.  So I'd like to give a few of my thoughts on whats been going on with the prices of ref to keys, keys to buds, and all of that to $$$.

 

First refined.  While it took me a while, I soon realized that once the key price had rose to 5 ref, double it once was, ref was soon becoming a worthless commodity.  Nobody crafted hats.  Nobody used any metal for crafting AT ALL.  Refined was simply being used to swap for keys, and the more ref there was, the more value it lost.  The Bread Boxes helped for a while, but once they became uncraftable, the vicious cycle continued.  The Steam market certainly didn't help, just adding as a way for those who never bought keys to just sell TF2 items they never wanted and get keys easier.  But it never killed ref alone, it was the market, the growing amount of metal, the fact that refined is near useless, all these factors played into killing ref.  We don't need something like the bread boxes, those were only a temporary fix.  Unless Valve decides to create a new blueprint that does anything, ANYTHING at all worthwhile, and uses ref, theres nothing stopping keys from reaching 20, 25, 30, maybe even 50 refined.  I dread the day that comes.  But for now, theres nothing the community can do but hope.

 

Next buds.  Honestly, i never understood why these were such a commodity. Yes, its an all class limited misc. But so is the bills, and maxes, and so many other event hats.  Why specifically buds?  Anyway, the price of buds is pretty much dependent on whether people are buying bunches of Unusuals.  So....why just make it its own currency?  Why constantly try to value buds, with a currency who's value keeps increasing?   

 

Finally, all the tf2 currencies to money.   ....dont.  Just....just don't.  I know people want to spend less money on keys, but guess what?  Now its at a point where to do that, you have to get one from the market or mann co store.  Why give keys a monetary price when IT ALREADY HAS A MONETARY PRICE?!?!   Nobodys gonna spend money on refined metal, so why give a price to that? Making items worth both metal, keys, AND money makes the system all that more complicated.  Dollar prices should only matter for items that are easy to buy with dollars, AKA items sellable on the Steam Market.  I would say that nobodys stupid to pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for TF2 items....but I've been proven wrong already many times.  

 

Is the market going to crash any time soon?  No. But with whats been going on, at somepoint in the future, refined metal will be literally  WORTHLESS.  It at that point that i think the crash will happen, when metal becomes so common and so unwanted that nobody will even want to bother key/ref swapping.  Once that happens, the majority of items traded will instantly become worthless too, as they were also measured in metal.  

 

In the end, none of this matters.  TF2, any way you look at it, is a game.  A game about 9 hired gunmen fighting their way in the badlands of New Mexico, and the shenanigans that ensue.  The market has never truly effected how enjoyable the game is.  It never will.  There are tons of people who never trade, just playing and enjoying the items they get by drop.  When I unbox my first unusual, I'll probably join those people.  Until then,  I have to deal with the inevitability that one sorry, but also glorious day, the Team Fortress 2 economy will crash and burn.  

 

You can find me watching it get there.  With a huge grin on my face as it does.

[buddhapest]

I stopped reading economic expert Roberto's response after

 

> Nobody crafted hats

[Sparkle Tea Time]

The real problem is that certain moderators in backpack.tf recently were voting the increase of earbuds and sadly that went down even harsher than before.

 

Seriously where is the discipline?

 

Also the proofs in suggestions are just links to bots or people who flip keys for "profit" which causes them to rise for no reason, creating an endless increase in which no one really wanted.

 

I mean the problem is there, people who flip for profit are ruining the economy significantly. They are not the only cause for it, but it's a major issue and they should be voided in key suggestions.

[cares]

The real problem is that certain moderators in backpack.tf recently were voting the increase of earbuds and sadly that went down even harsher than before.

 

Seriously where is the discipline?

 

Also the proofs in suggestions are just links to bots or people who flip keys for "profit" which causes them to rise for no reason, creating an endless increase in which no one really wanted.

 

I mean the problem is there, people who flip for profit are ruining the economy significantly. They are not the only cause for it, but it's a major issue and they should be voided in key suggestions.

 

That was the state of the market at that time. Said moderator even provided additional proof in their own comment. The market crashed the day after and said moderator accepted a suggestion decreasing the price of earbuds back to where they were. If you take note of the timestamps, the suggestion with more proof was in fact accepted faster than the one with almost none. Both had a pretty poor upvote:downvote ratio (even the suggestion with good proof had less than 60%).

[♥Prof. Sugarcube♥]

The real problem is that certain moderators in backpack.tf recently were voting the increase of earbuds and sadly that went down even harsher than before.

 

Seriously where is the discipline?

 

Also the proofs in suggestions are just links to bots or people who flip keys for "profit" which causes them to rise for no reason, creating an endless increase in which no one really wanted.

 

I mean the problem is there, people who flip for profit are ruining the economy significantly. They are not the only cause for it, but it's a major issue and they should be voided in key suggestions.

 

Don't blame other people if you have no recollection of what they DO.

[Heated Bread]

Don't blame other people if you have no recollection of what they DO.

 

Every angry mob needs a villain to be against.  Doesn't matter how retarded the mob is or how wrong they are.  Pitchforks and torches will come out anyway.

[Miyoyo]

Here is an actual suggestion:

 

Put a REAL character limit on the suggestions and make a bot that scans the proofs, if not then deny the posting

 

 

This will avoid people shitposting :

"HHAY LUK TEH KAIEYS AR TOO ECKSPENSIEV GIT BAK TO 2.33 RAF"

or

"AT DIS SPADE TEH KAIEYS WIL BEH 325025784376390643^10*525932752753 IN A WEK PLS MEK FASTER"

[CocoaNut]

Miyoyo, on 31 Dec 2014 - 10:08 AM, said:

Here is an actual suggestion:

 

Put a REAL character limit on the suggestions and make a bot that scans the proofs, if not then deny the posting

 

 

This will avoid people shitposting :

"HHAY LUK TEH KAIEYS AR TOO ECKSPENSIEV GIT BAK TO 2.33 RAF"

or

"AT DIS SPADE TEH KAIEYS WIL BEH 325025784376390643^10*525932752753 IN A WEK PLS MEK FASTER"

 

I really think that a better alternative would just be to deny people who have too little rep from posting a suggestion.

[CocoaNut]

OH MY GOD KEYS ARE GOING DOWN!

 

...

 

EVERYBODY PANIC!

[Sparkle Tea Time]

OH MY GOD KEYS ARE GOING DOWN!

 

...

 

EVERYBODY PANIC!

 

Keys are going down because people bought them for Christmas, it was predictable.

 

 

The only thing is that refined will not increase, as this will stop very soon and keys rise back up.

[CocoaNut]

Sparkle Tea Time, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:01 AM, said:Sparkle Tea Time, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:01 AM, said:

Keys are going down because people bought them for Christmas, it was predictable.

 

 

The only thing is that refined will not increase, as this will stop very soon and keys rise back up.

 

Yeah, it was a joke... A reference, actually

 

But I don't buy that explanation. Keys were going up too fast for too long (relative to ref) for the market to sustain it. A crash was inevitable, Christmas keys or no.

[cares]

Keys are going down because people bought them for Christmas, it was predictable.

 

 

The only thing is that refined will not increase, as this will stop very soon and keys rise back up.

 

This. Sell your keys now and you'll regret it.

[CocoaNut]

cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:17 AM, said:cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:17 AM, said:cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:17 AM, said:cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:17 AM, said:cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:17 AM, said:

This. Sell your keys now and you'll regret it.

 

Keys won't get stuck at 10 or even 15 refined. I don't think any reasonable person that knows anything about the TF2 economy would argue that. Holding onto keys will always result in you losing less ref when you sell them later.

 

But I'd classify a trader that held onto a key for a month just to make sure that s/he didn't lose 3 ref on the deal as a pretty big idiot, since you can make a lot more using that ref to buy and sell in that time.

 

I'd also say that you're a fool if you think that market panic isn't going to drive the price down to 12 ref at best. I'd say 10-11 is actually conservative. As mentioned before, though, the market will correct for the selling panic as it did for the purchasing panic (which was a major factor in the inflation, relative to ref).

 

When it comes to key prices, I just don't care. I don't really care about saving up my currencies to trade between them at the best rates simply because it's far more efficient to just use the currencies to trade items of value and exchange them only when I'm running low on a particular currency. I sold two keys this morning not because of market panic, but because I'm running low on ref and could spare a couple of keys to get me more ref. I don't mind taking the hit because I'll come out with a larger profit in the end than if I would have waited for keys to go back up again.

 

tl;dr Key prices aren't going to immediately stop dropping. We still have a few ref to go, but traders (other than key traders) should focus on actual trading, not optimizing their key purchases and sales based on market prices.

[cares]

Keys won't get stuck at 10 or even 15 refined. I don't think any reasonable person that knows anything about the TF2 economy would argue that. Holding onto keys will always result in you losing less ref when you sell them later.

 

But I'd classify a trader that held onto a key for a month just to make sure that s/he didn't lose 3 ref on the deal as a pretty big idiot, since you can make a lot more using that ref to buy and sell in that time.

 

I'd also say that you're a fool if you think that market panic isn't going to drive the price down to 12 ref at best. I'd say 10-11 is actually conservative. As mentioned before, though, the market will correct for the selling panic as it did for the purchasing panic (which was a major factor in the inflation, relative to ref).

 

When it comes to key prices, I just don't care. I don't really care about saving up my currencies to trade between them at the best rates simply because it's far more efficient to just use the currencies to trade items of value and exchange them only when I'm running low on a particular currency. I sold two keys this morning not because of market panic, but because I'm running low on ref and could spare a couple of keys to get me more ref. I don't mind taking the hit because I'll come out with a larger profit in the end than if I would have waited for keys to go back up again.

 

tl;dr Key prices aren't going to immediately stop dropping. We still have a few ref to go, but traders (other than key traders) should focus on actual trading, not optimizing their key purchases and sales based on market prices.

 

That's nice, calling me an idiot.

 

Keys are still the universal currency with a set value, $2.49 (less paypal). Unless you're doing low tier trading you will have to deal with keys. I have 140 ref stockpiled, I'm not worried. Selling keys right now for ref won't help me whatsoever. On the other hand, people like you sell all your keys, then state "the economy is dying" when it goes back up and you can't get a single one for what you think it a reasonable price.

[CocoaNut]

cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:39 AM, said:

That's nice, calling me an idiot.

 

Keys are still the universal currency with a set value, $2.49 (less paypal). Unless you're doing low tier trading you will have to deal with keys. I have 140 ref stockpiled, I'm not worried. Selling keys right now for ref won't help me whatsoever. On the other hand, people like you sell all your keys, then state "the economy is dying" when it goes back up and you can't get a single one for what you think it a reasonable price.

 

Yes, because I totally didn't say the exact fucking opposite in my post.

 

Great reading skills. 10/10.

[cares]

 

Yes, because I totally didn't say the exact fucking opposite in my post.

 

Great reading skills. 10/10.

 

Keys won't get stuck at 10 or even 15 refined. I don't think any reasonable person that knows anything about the TF2 economy would argue that. Holding onto keys will always result in you losing less ref when you sell them later.

 

But I'd classify a trader that held onto a key for a month just to make sure that s/he didn't lose 3 ref on the deal as a pretty big idiot, since you can make a lot more using that ref to buy and sell in that time.

 

I'd also say that you're a fool if you think that market panic isn't going to drive the price down to 12 ref at best. I'd say 10-11 is actually conservative. As mentioned before, though, the market will correct for the selling panic as it did for the purchasing panic (which was a major factor in the inflation, relative to ref).

 

When it comes to key prices, I just don't care. I don't really care about saving up my currencies to trade between them at the best rates simply because it's far more efficient to just use the currencies to trade items of value and exchange them only when I'm running low on a particular currency. I sold two keys this morning not because of market panic, but because I'm running low on ref and could spare a couple of keys to get me more ref. I don't mind taking the hit because I'll come out with a larger profit in the end than if I would have waited for keys to go back up again.

 

tl;dr Key prices aren't going to immediately stop dropping. We still have a few ref to go, but traders (other than key traders) should focus on actual trading, not optimizing their key purchases and sales based on market prices.

 

Stop shitposting on a serious thread please.

[CocoaNut]

cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 09:00 AM, said:cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 09:00 AM, said:cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 09:00 AM, said:cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 09:00 AM, said:

 

 

 

 

Stop shitposting on a serious thread please.

 

 

CocoaNut, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:32 AM, said:CocoaNut, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:32 AM, said:CocoaNut, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:32 AM, said:

Keys won't get stuck at 10 or even 15 refined. I don't think any reasonable person that knows anything about the TF2 economy would argue that. Holding onto keys will always result in you losing less ref when you sell them later.

 

But I'd classify a trader that held onto a key for a month just to make sure that s/he didn't lose 3 ref on the deal as a pretty big idiot, since you can make a lot more using that ref to buy and sell in that time.

 

I'd also say that you're a fool if you think that market panic isn't going to drive the price down to 12 ref at best. I'd say 10-11 is actually conservative. As mentioned before, though, the market will correct for the selling panic as it did for the purchasing panic (which was a major factor in the inflation, relative to ref).

 

When it comes to key prices, I just don't care. I don't really care about saving up my currencies to trade between them at the best rates simply because it's far more efficient to just use the currencies to trade items of value and exchange them only when I'm running low on a particular currency. I sold two keys this morning not because of market panic, but because I'm running low on ref and could spare a couple of keys to get me more ref. I don't mind taking the hit because I'll come out with a larger profit in the end than if I would have waited for keys to go back up again.

 

tl;dr Key prices aren't going to immediately stop dropping. We still have a few ref to go, but traders (other than key traders) should focus on actual trading, not optimizing their key purchases and sales based on market prices.

 

Great reading skills. 10/10.

 

Edit: Oh, right.

 

cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:39 AM, said:cares, on 03 Jan 2015 - 08:39 AM, said:

That's nice, calling me an idiot.

 

Well, if the glove fits, and I think I just proved that it does...

[Neobenedict]

HAHAHA

 

In your FACE everybody

[Skylineee]

There are sellers for 9 ref.

hallelujah

[Jomarcenter]

I think we will going to see price drop at the end of each sales.

Since people will buy wallet money during sales plus with the trade cool off time... let's just say This will happened every time.

But with the current situation on hand we might see much lower drop as panic started to happened even more as trade is broken unless if an admin lock up the classify for keys.

 

But backpack.tf is just a guide just like this post always said (http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/3489-tf2-trading-etiquette/) but always ignored by the majority of users. I could price Keys as how high or low it will if I want to. So people should realized that it just a guide just like the stockmarket exchange information that you always see on the lower portion of your news channel it just an update to the trends not a price book.

 

Like for example the End of the Line Community Crate #87 I have a lot in my backpack and I am not seeing anyone selling them.

So I can price it at a key and maybe some will see it and buy it for a key. Or I can selling it for a ref and people will buy it because I am the only one who is selling it.

 

Update: look like were seeing price sabotage as one of the seller NOP have set his inventory to private and ignore every friend request.

 

Update2: I could consider the fact as more user are trading are the cause why the trade is a bit glitchy today.

[OverduePixels]

Looks like it went from 17 to 14 and then as low as 10.00 ref for about few hours and now back to 13.00 ref and counting.

 

Accepted suggestion at 14.00 ref.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54a7c4b6b88d88841a8b4b45