The key price thread

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

I'm sorry but Backpack.tf brought the majority of this economic shit on theirselves, why should anyone help them sort out the key problem? In my opinion, this thread is nonetheless pointless.

Not as pointless as this post.

[♠Derpeh♤]

I'm sorry but Backpack.tf brought the majority of this economic shit on theirselves, why should anyone help them sort out the key problem? In my opinion, this thread is nonetheless pointless.

 

 

Since when has the economy gone to shit? If anything the economy is better than ever, keys are steadily going up via paypal which indicates that the economy is doing great.

 

If you're talking about the price of keys in terms of refine here is a lesson

1) metal is free keys cost money i.e. we have a fixed currency and metal is the variable

2) It used to be 2.33ref doe!, well back then a majority of keys were carded keys (stolen via credit cards) and keys back then were ~1-1.25 usd paypal. Valve brought out the bann hammer so no more keys from shifty places. How does it make sense that people would buy keys for 2.5usd and then sell them for 1usd unless they obtained them via illegal means?

3) metal is useless, give me one decent reason to use metal besides buying keys and using it to craft low crafts once in a while.

4) why do you expect to get free money by playing a free game?

[Smegkopf]

As someone who isn't that in the tf2 economy but is affected by it, why doesnt backpack.tf use its economical clout to give keys and buds a fixed price? Since they're the main currency used, it seems silly to let them be in such flux, especially with the prices being as they are? I mean, prices dont have to even go down per se, just a fixed price for the two main currency items used seems fair. Why doesnt that happen?

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

As someone who isn't that in the tf2 economy but is affected by it, why doesnt backpack.tf use its economical clout to give keys and buds a fixed price? Since they're the main currency used, it seems silly to let them be in such flux, especially with the prices being as they are? I mean, prices dont have to even go down per se, just a fixed price for the two main currency items used seems fair. Why doesnt that happen?

Because setting a fixed price would be market manipulation?

People are continually willing to pay whatever sellers ask; so long as thats true then key/bud prices will NOT be fixed.

[buddhapest]

Derpeh, so tired of repeating this but....

 

metal is not free

 

please please please read: http://one-crate-per-week.tumblr.com/post/49723737022/week-11

and http://one-crate-per-week.tumblr.com/post/50283088022/week-12

 

also, Smegkopf.  please read this entire thread before responding...

[Riksdagen]

Keys can be stable with 13-14 refined. A range like 13-13.11 etc will only increase it.

[0bsidianFire]

^^ Oh god, those read like the biggest Author Tract of all time. I'd also kinda like to know why they never brought up how Valve getting rid of the carded keys really changed how the key/metal relationship worked. Not to mention, who argues that we're all a bunch of idiots who are trying to make virtual profits while they're spending keys on unboxing to get an unusuall?

 

As for the metal "disapearing" thing. No duh, people use it for crafting. There's this thing called "craft numbers" that some of us want to get that can net tones of profit, and the only way to get them is to craft. (You should see what trade.tf does to keep track of this.) That said, the same people who use metal for crafting (not craft number items) probably aren't the ones contributing metal to the economy either (or other items). And while crafting is fun, there are so many things that can't be gotten by crafting. Stranges, killstreak kits, strange parts, paint, etc. You can only get those with pure. While I don't have a problem with crafting (I might try it myself someday), there's a lot of other things I want that can't be gotten by doing it. It makes no sense to craft until I've gotten the many other things I want.

 

Nevermind that stats.tf is probably not the most accurate place to get your info. If it doesn't know where all the metal is, it can't give an acurate reading of how much metal there is. There also can only be more metal then stats.tf reports there is so the increase of metal into the economy is more then likely greater then reported.

 

The entire point of saying that "metal is unlimited" is to say that the rate of introduction of metal in the economy will never be negative. The rate that keys are introduced into the economy can most definetly be negative.

[Fruit]

Keys can be stable with 13-14 refined. A range like 13-13.11 etc will only increase it.

I don't think it can be stable at 13-14. I'd say 20-25.

[CocoaNut]

AwesomeMcCoolName, on 10 Dec 2014 - 4:55 PM, said:

Because setting a fixed price would be market manipulation?

People are continually willing to pay whatever sellers ask; so long as thats true then key/bud prices will NOT be fixed.

 

Didn't backpack.tf try that already anyway and it didn't work?

 

 

I don't think it can be stable at 13-14. I'd say 20-25.

 

Oh, I hope not. Keys at 10 ref was annoying enough to try to change/deal with trades that aren't full keys.

 

This is why I support ToD tickets as a form of currency. Keys at 20 ref would make ToD tickets 8 or so. Which would make buying or selling things at 16 ref just... so much easier.

[buddhapest]

keys stable?

 

[Bleeblob]

Just hope valve makes another bread-box-type item and starts a hat-destroying-hype again. Hat numbers are still down because of that update. 

[cares]

Ref to key prices have a very realistic limit, that being the chance of making profit by crafting hats.

 

Assuming you buy craft hats at 1.22, 1 craft is 2.44 ref. According to backpack.tf's pricesheet you currently have a 81.49% (p = 480/589) chance to make a loss. The amount of crafts you can do per key is c = floor(k / 2.44). If k = 14, that'd be 5 crafts. Of course if you were to craft more keys worth of ref, you'd get the odd extra craft here and there, depending on ref to key prices.

 

The fun starts when we combine these values using a power: c ^ p. floor(14 / 2.44) ^ 480/589 = ~0.35. That means the other ~64% will be either you breaking even or making a profit. As k (ref to key) increases, so will the chance to make a profit. Although you say, might get 4 bad crafts in a row, usually the 5th will pay for the other 4 + a little bit of profit.

 

Bread Boxes simply postponed the event. Four things can happen now, maybe just one, or multiple in any order:

- People don't notice this and continue buying very expensive keys

- Hats become overly expensive

- Massive supply of higher tier hats drives down the price.

- Ref to key goes down.

 

Edit: Fixed logic.

[{Wrath} MoonzWolf]

Earlier this year key prices were 8 Ref, and now they're hastily rising up to 15 Ref, or further seeing how greedy people are.

I loathe inflation and the way people are saying it's a good thing, but at this point I give up. Since a key is now worth 126 weapons, and you can get pretty much whatever you want with just two or three keys (IF you don't care for unusuals or overly expensive things in the game.)

So at this point i'm just gonna buy some keys (From the market, of course. No need to throw more keys into the game.), sit back, and wait and watch the price of them go up. As soon as the price starts to drop I'll sell my keys for Ref, and wait until we hit a 'recession' of sorts. 

And that's how you get rich fast, kids. (Figuratively speaking. It's just a game.)

Because right now I'm quite literally scraping at the bottom of the barrel just to get stranges, let alone anything else. It took me months to scrounge together enough metal to get a Strange scattergun, and I think it's sad that no one notices how big of a gap there is between being able to buy keys, and not being able to.

 

[Tats]

As people follow Backpack prices and always sell a bit higher their keys, if you fix the price at 13.66 ref, people will stick at 14 ref. There is no big difference between the two by the way (1 rec). Keys are one of the TF2 main currencies and should remain steady unless there is a substantial increase and then, needs to be updated. As you get more and more refined for a key, it means a refined metal is each time, losing its value and affects all the TF2 economy. Backpack is the price-maker for many people and should remain a reference, and shouldn't nourish a constant and artificial price increase.

 

People that always upvote price increases are the people that blame the other people of price manipulation, just look for the error.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Earlier this year key prices were 8 Ref, and now they're hastily rising up to 15 Ref, or further seeing how greedy people are.

I loathe inflation and the way people are saying it's a good thing, but at this point I give up. Since a key is now worth 126 weapons, and you can get pretty much whatever you want with just two or three keys (IF you don't care for unusuals or overly expensive things in the game.)

So at this point i'm just gonna buy some keys (From the market, of course. No need to throw more keys into the game.), sit back, and wait and watch the price of them go up. As soon as the price starts to drop I'll sell my keys for Ref, and wait until we hit a 'recession' of sorts. 

And that's how you get rich fast, kids. (Figuratively speaking. It's just a game.)

Because right now I'm quite literally scraping at the bottom of the barrel just to get stranges, let alone anything else. It took me months to scrounge together enough metal to get a Strange scattergun, and I think it's sad that no one notices how big of a gap there is between being able to buy keys, and not being able to.

So you're complaining that you can just get things for free basically? Last time I checked, in the real world you actually have to work if you want to wear clothing, it isn't just given to you (obviously I'm excluding charities/other organizations that help the needy as they are something else entirely).

 

As people follow Backpack prices and always sell a bit higher their keys, if you fix the price at 13.66 ref, people will stick at 14 ref. There is no big difference between the two by the way (1 rec). Keys are one of the TF2 main currencies and should remain steady unless there is a substantial increase and then, needs to be updated. As you get more and more refined for a key, it means a refined metal is each time, losing its value and affects all the TF2 economy. Backpack is the price-maker for many people and should remain a reference, and shouldn't nourish a constant and artificial price increase.

 

People that always upvote price increases are the people that blame the other people of price manipulation, just look for the error.

If that was the case, then how come keys suddenly stopped increasing and the started to drop....and then started increasing again? If what you're saying is true, then keys should NEVER have started decreasing in the first place, and once they had they should NEVER had started to increase again. 

[cares]

As people follow Backpack prices and always sell a bit higher their keys, if you fix the price at 13.66 ref, people will stick at 14 ref. There is no big difference between the two by the way (1 rec). Keys are one of the TF2 main currencies and should remain steady unless there is a substantial increase and then, needs to be updated. As you get more and more refined for a key, it means a refined metal is each time, losing its value and affects all the TF2 economy. Backpack is the price-maker for many people and should remain a reference, and shouldn't nourish a constant and artificial price increase.

 

People that always upvote price increases are the people that blame the other people of price manipulation, just look for the error.

 

Backpack.tf is not the market. Learn to understand the difference. If backpack.tf were to accept a suggestion changing the price of keys to 2.33, the site would simply lose credibility and people will move on to somewhere else.

[DyRusky]

AwesomeMcCoolName, on 14 Dec 2014 - 1:52 PM, said:

So you're complaining that you can just get things for free basically? Last time I checked, in the real world you actually have to work if you want to wear clothing, it isn't just given to you (obviously I'm excluding charities/other organizations that help the needy as they are something else entirely).

 

If that was the case, then how come keys suddenly stopped increasing and the started to drop....and then started increasing again? If what you're saying is true, then keys should NEVER have started decreasing in the first place, and once they had they should NEVER had started to increase again. 

Can we not bring up real world economics in a video game discussion?

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Can we not bring up real world economics in a video game discussion?

Why not? Why should a virtual economy perform any differently? 

 

Virtual or not, economics is economics.

[Gren]

Can we not bring up real world economics in a video game discussion?

 

Supply and demand have the same impact on pricing in this economy than any other.  The only difference in the Tf2 economy is a lack of regulation (through laws, governing bodies, lobies, etc.) as compared to real life economies.  

[cares]

Supply and demand have the same impact on pricing in this economy than any other.  The only difference in the Tf2 economy is a lack of regulation (through laws, governing bodies, lobies, etc.) as compared to real life economies.  

 

Valve is the governing body, with communities like SR and OP playing vigilante.

[Gren]

It took me months to scrounge together enough metal to get a Strange scattergun, and I think it's sad that no one notices how big of a gap there is between being able to buy keys, and not being able to.

 

No, what's sad is that there are all these people who expect to make real $$ from a game that Valve distributes at no charge.  So you can download this amazing game for free and never spend a dollar and theoretically still become the best player in TF2 because - unlike other games - high value items don't actually make you a better player.  But you guys are complaining that your free weapon drops that you get from just playing the game and presumably enjoying it won't buy you keys anymore.  

 

What else is sad is that kids today apparently can't even scrounge together 20 dollars by mowing lawns, shoveling drive ways, whatever it is you gotta do.  So go out, make some money, and then put that money into this economy by buying stuff of the market,  Maybe hard to believe, but that's how most of us do it.  

[Gren]

Valve is the governing body, with communities like SR and OP playing vigilante.

 

Yes Cares, I know that.  But I'd hope you acknowledge that SR, OP and even Valve do not exercise even a fraction of the control that for example the US legal system does on the US economy.  

[ScrapTF Bat-Country]

I dont give a flying fuck about key price in refined, since I'm not dependant on that anymore...

 

but I'm asking you: Where is all the refined coming from to cause this exponential increase in price?

 

Idling farms were an argument a long time ago, Valve made it practically impossible to idle in a cost-efficient way, since multiple Accounts on the same IP registered by the Game Coordinator just cause you to get no drops at all. Not even mentioning all the other nuisances they added which even makes getting drops during a normal game a pain in the ass.

 

Also, I dont see an exponential increase in active players on TF2. In fact the game is already a dead cash cow that is being milked dry by valve with putting the least necessary efforts into it (see: last update).

 

So I'm asking you: Is the recent increase in price still based on fundamental facts or is it just a mass-psychological effect (compare to panic buying goods)?

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

I dont give a flying fuck about key price in refined, since I'm not dependant on that anymore...

 

but I'm asking you: Where is all the refined coming from to cause this exponential increase in price?

 

Idling farms were an argument a long time ago, Valve made it practically impossible to idle in a cost-efficient way, since multiple Accounts on the same IP registered by the Game Coordinator just cause you to get no drops at all. Not even mentioning all the other nuisances they added which even makes getting drops during a normal game a pain in the ass.

 

So I'm asking you: Is the recent increase in price still based on fundamental facts or is it just a mass-psychological effect (compare to panic buying goods)?

Its not just an increase in Refined, its a lack of purpose. Ref can be used to craft hats and as a currency. Thats it. As time goes on the hats become more and more common, and unlike stranges, the ability to craft a hat never expires like how crates stop being dropped. That combined with the fact that keys are inherently tied to a fixed dollar amount drives the price of ref down as time goes on as it serves less and less of a purpose. 

 

And then there is the secondary issue that caused keys to rise -- speculation about the key supply dropping when the SCM was first launched was what originally helped drive up prices, and the speculation has just continued to this day -- "Oh well, if I don't buy those keys now, they'll just be more expensive tomorrow....so I might as well buy them now." 

[Vitoooo]

I like how people strolling in here and be like: "Duh, backpack.tf maed da econemeh ded, me mad and sad. haf 2 hate dem.", while it's not backpack.tf's fault. It's because of the numbers of people buying and selling the keys over the average price.

 

I don't know why, but I almost feel like being in a community, where 60% of all the people start going to attack bp.tf, instead of taking a moment to think. Really damn sad and dumb. I don't hate backpack.tf, I hate the traders. They destroy the economy themselves, by making tons of money with each key and then, they start coming to the next key suggestion and complain about it. Annoying and stupid on a new level. I wanna see, how long it takes to crack the 20 or 25 refined line. I bet it just takes another year, because the traders are greedy as hell.

 

All I have to say: Don't hate the backpack.tf suggestions, hate the people, that made the suggestion possible (People that clarify themselves as sellers and buyers.)