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The key price thread


base64

  

181 members have voted

  1. 1. Should Keys Go Up Or Down? Would They Help The Economy If They Are Higher?

    • Up / Yes
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    • Down / No
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Quite the opposite for that to work, if ref goes down in price (so it increases in quantity, which it does every Thursday), keys go up in ref. Keys are closer to $1.80-1.85 really and ref is more like $0.09 atm.

 

I encourage you to read this - http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/blog/121/entry-301-explaining-the-rise-of-keys-in-refined-and-the-drop-of-refined-in-usd/

Thats what I had meant when I had stated they have an inverse of eachothers price change.

 

That link was very good. You had stated how the increase in items and base currency (refined metal) means that the value is droping; therfore we need more of the base currency to buy items. The only issue is that this rule would have to apply to ALL items in order to apply to keys. You are describing inflation, as the increase in currency (refined) the value of it drops. But this isnt happening anywhere else except keys. Thats why I mentioned changing the key (our 2nd form of currency has a huge affect on our base currency the refined.

 

To sum it up, I agree with the idea of the refined increasing to purchase keys IF it had the appropiate impact. Do you understand what I am trying to get at?

 

example:

 

2011 keys (2.5 ref) --> 2015 keys (19 ref)

 

then means

 

2011 refined ($1.00) --> 2015 refined ($0.10)

 

now that the base currency has droped 1000%

 

2011 hats (1.33 ref) ---->2015 hats (13.33)     

 

So why hasn't the final step happened? because people could craft hats for 3 ref, and as much as I could ever agree with you that this is inflation it isnt, its prices created by the quality of sales.

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Thats what I had meant when I had stated they have an inverse of eachothers price change.

 

That link was very good. You had stated how the increase in items and base currency (refined metal) means that the value is droping; therfore we need more of the base currency to buy items. The only issue is that this rule would have to apply to ALL items in order to apply to keys. You are describing inflation, as the increase in currency (refined) the value of it drops. But this isnt happening anywhere else except keys. Thats why I mentioned changing the key (our 2nd form of currency has a huge affect on our base currency the refined.

 

To sum it up, I agree with the idea of the refined increasing to purchase keys IF it had the appropiate impact. Do you understand what I am trying to get at?

 

example:

 

2011 keys (2.5 ref) --> 2015 keys (19 ref)

 

then means

 

2011 refined ($1.00) --> 2015 refined ($0.10)

 

now that the base currency has droped 1000%

 

2011 hats (1.33 ref) ---->2015 hats (13.33)     

 

So why hasn't the final step happened? because people could craft hats for 3 ref, and as much as I could ever agree with you that this is inflation it isnt, its prices created by the quality of sales.

 

Your logic is very flawed. 2011 is pretty much irrelevant if we're talking trading anyway, the price started going up around 2012.

 

In 2012 there were carders so the price of keys was incredibly low, only $1.20 or so PayPal. Therefore metal was only really $0.40 or so, and in 2013 (when SCM was introduced), metal dropped quickly to $0.30-35, yet the price of keys went up 1.3x on top of that inflation. Why? Valve fixed the carder problem and so keys went up to a reasonable $1.80-ish PayPal like they are today.

 

In reality refined has really only dropped 500% in 3 years.

 

Hats mostly don't have a special value in USD (only that of what they are priced at in refined). Items that can only be obtained from the Store (like keys) always follow the trend: ToDs, Gift Wrap, Paint (even ones that are dropped), Name Tags, etc.

 

All of it depends per item. Promos for example largely follow the downward trend of refined. Understandable, because of more hats being added to the game both in terms of new items and increased quantity -> players seeking out cheaper/nicer looking items. Bill's is no longer really a special looking hat. Stranges have been going up lately. Unusuals go down in value due to the increase in quantity, and so on.

 

An economy is not a static graph. 

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Your logic is very flawed. 2011 is pretty much irrelevant if we're talking trading anyway, the price started going up around 2012.

 

In 2012 there were carders so the price of keys was incredibly low, only $1.20 or so PayPal. Therefore metal was only really $0.40 or so, and in 2013 (when SCM was introduced), metal dropped quickly to $0.30-35, yet the price of keys went up 1.3x on top of that inflation. Why? Valve fixed the carder problem and so keys went up to a reasonable $1.80-ish PayPal like they are today.

 

In reality refined has really only dropped 500% in 3 years.

 

Hats mostly don't have a special value in USD (only that of what they are priced at in refined). Items that can only be obtained from the Store (like keys) always follow the trend: ToDs, Gift Wrap, Paint (even ones that are dropped), Name Tags, etc.

 

All of it depends per item. Promos for example largely follow the downward trend of refined. Understandable, because of more hats being added to the game both in terms of new items and increased quantity -> players seeking out cheaper/nicer looking items. Bill's is no longer really a special looking hat. Stranges have been going up lately. Unusuals go down in value due to the increase in quantity, and so on.

 

An economy is not a static graph. 

No it certainly is not static, but your missing what I am saying. Currency in the real world fluctuates depending on a multitude of things, of course in the TF2 world the characterstic that is transferd most obvioulsy is inflation. There is a base currency and has that drops in value its quanity to buy items should increase, and I see how your pointing out the hat intrest levels. But then again I'm just asking questions, and I appreciate your response its given me more to think about and filled me in on some new information since my absence.

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No it certainly is not static, but your missing what I am saying. Currency in the real world fluctuates depending on a multitude of things, of course in the TF2 world the characterstic that is transferd most obvioulsy is inflation. There is a base currency and has that drops in value its quanity to buy items should increase, and I see how your pointing out the hat intrest levels. But then again I'm just asking questions, and I appreciate your response its given me more to think about and filled me in on some new information since my absence.

The way I see it - think of the tf2 economy as Zimbabwe. Now think of refined metal as Zimbabwean dollars. Now consider it increasing in number for absolutely no economic reason. Just dropping around randomly (which is mostly why zwd are worthless now)

 

Easy enough to understand I'd say.

 

The reason other items aren't going up while refined crashes down is because there is virtually no cost of production (ie no one crafts hats with 3-4 refined)

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The way I see it - think of the tf2 economy as Zimbabwe. Now think of refined metal as Zimbabwean dollars. Now consider it increasing in number for absolutely no economic reason. Just dropping around randomly (which is mostly why zwd are worthless now)

 

Easy enough to understand I'd say.

 

The reason other items aren't going up while refined crashes down is because there is virtually no cost of production (ie no one crafts hats with 3-4 refined)

Yeah... why is this stuff never on the face of backpack.tf? I understand how backpack.tf is meant to be used as a spreadsheet but why do the prices have to be so easily definitive by a trend? Then everyone uses that price, almost everyone. Not saying they have control, which I think they have the oppoite of which makes it bad. If we let people determine the constant rise in price just becuase everyone wants to make a profit.

 

I have always wondered why no one crafts hats, as in commonly. Are hat drops that common? I have only found 3 in my lifetime. Why is crafting hats not an affective measure of obtaining metal or trading?

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Yeah... why is this stuff never on the face of backpack.tf? I understand how backpack.tf is meant to be used as a spreadsheet but why do the prices have to be so easily definitive by a trend? Then everyone uses that price, almost everyone. Not saying they have control, which I think they have the oppoite of which makes it bad. If we let people determine the constant rise in price just becuase everyone wants to make a profit.

 

I have always wondered why no one crafts hats, as in commonly. Are hat drops that common? I have only found 3 in my lifetime. Why is crafting hats not an affective measure of obtaining metal or trading?

 

You hated spreadsheet. You hate backpack.tf. What do you really want? (you = people who complain about bptf)

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You hated spreadsheet. You hate backpack.tf. What do you really want? (you = people who complain about bptf)

Oh, well sorry if I seemed as If I was complaining, now that I reread that it does come off with that vibe. But honestly what I would want is a more consistent form of trading prices. One that reflects and promotes crafting rather than drops. But then I might be asking for to much there.

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I have always wondered why no one crafts hats, as in commonly. Are hat drops that common? I have only found 3 in my lifetime. Why is crafting hats not an affective measure of obtaining metal or trading?

There are thousands of every hat, many of which are already painted and being sold for less than it would cost to paint them yourself. Plus, crafting a hat isn't practical since there are hundreds of hats so the odds of getting the one you want are extremely low (making it cheaper to just buy the hat). 

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Oh, well sorry if I seemed as If I was complaining, now that I reread that it does come off with that vibe. But honestly what I would want is a more consistent form of trading prices. One that reflects and promotes crafting rather than drops. But then I might be asking for to much there.

I want that too lol. I remember proposing a 2.66-3.33 ref range for all the various craft hats and people just blowing up in my face for such an absurd opinion. I might make a thread about it someday but likely not
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The way I see it - think of the tf2 economy as Zimbabwe. Now think of refined metal as Zimbabwean dollars. Now consider it increasing in number for absolutely no economic reason. Just dropping around randomly (which is mostly why zwd are worthless now)

 

Easy enough to understand I'd say.

 

The reason other items aren't going up while refined crashes down is because there is virtually no cost of production (ie no one crafts hats with 3-4 refined)

 

what you say is generally true - refined is mostly worthless - and yet it defines the value of our economy due to a poor programming decision: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/18267-the-folly-of-using-refined-to-define-the-bptf-value-of-your-backpack/

 

 

however...   metal is not free.  and people do craft with metal.  i wrote about this back in 2013 and while sure things have changed,the basics have not.  time is not free, it's the most valuable thing we have, in fact.  it's why in general you pay a worker by the hour.

 

http://one-crate-per-week.tumblr.com/post/49723737022/week-11

 

crafting is fun, sure it's a profit loss, but it's still fun.

 

http://one-crate-per-week.tumblr.com/post/50283088022/week-12

 

~bp

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Honestly though after being gone for 1 and 1/2 years I dont think I care as much about the economy as I used. I used to love to trade back before my absence. I went  from F2P to Unusual. See i came to the realization of the odd pricing and some of the issues with base currency when I decided to spend a sliver of my paycheck on tf2 and also try to get back into trading. I am that one guy who before he buys anythign sits witha  calculator and looks at nearly EVERY way to obtain the mostfor my money. And thats how I spotted this wierd skew in how we define prices in TF2. S as much as it might seem I am complaining I just really want to squeeze the most out of my dollar even if that means vocalizing my hopes, opinons, facts, and statistics to try and do so.

 

Then again it is just a game that will become obsolete one day and forgotten. Or maybe it won't but with all of this I dont think I can enjoy trading as much as I used to. So i think the best thing to do is to spend $35 to get an unusual or buy your key for $1.80 online unless you are an unusual merchant. I'm certainly not a person of higher standards in any way. I just see trading almost obsolete form of progressing your BP as to buying, then again I don't think I have been back long enough to make that a solid statement.

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Yeah.  I think I stopped giving a crap about the economy for the most part, which is sad because I'd probably derive more enjoyment from the game if it still had the more stable (and easier to profit from) metal-friendly market that it used to have.  Is that bad?

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I personally believe that key prices should already be lower, the only reason behind them not being lower already is the fact that the people making price suggestions just haven't included enough evidence to cause the majority of players to upvote. If someone makes a suggestion to lower them with enough evidence, they'll definitely go down. However, that is only my take on it. Any other opinions?

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Only had 4 keys, but already sold them. Make a little profit out of it at least. Now I wonder how much will the keys go down, sc.tf dropped the price twice, or even more, in a few hours.

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I think it's just driven by speculation.  People expected it to top out and start dropping at some point, and then once it stalled at around 20 refined, I noticed that a bunch of people were all trying to sell at the same time.  From there it was bound to drop with everyone trying to "get out" at the peak.  Now we play the game of waiting until they bottom out, at which point everone will be buying back into keys and we start the process over again.

 

*le sigh*

 

Typical market bullshit.

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I think it's just driven by speculation.  People expected it to top out and start dropping at some point, and then once it stalled at around 20 refined, I noticed that a bunch of people were all trying to sell at the same time.  From there it was bound to drop with everyone trying to "get out" at the peak.  Now we play the game of waiting until they bottom out, at which point everone will be buying back into keys and we start the process over again.

 

*le sigh*

 

Typical market bullshit.

 

It honestly feels like the bud scenario again, in which key buyers are panic selling somewhat. Of course it will only most likely drop a few ref, nothing drastic like buds, but lately it just feels like a lot of sellers just seem to panic sell at the slightest drop when it comes to certain items now. Then the item rises when the panic dies out, they rise, and like you mentioned, the process just happens all over again.

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It honestly feels like the bud scenario again, in which key buyers are panic selling somewhat. Of course it will only most likely drop a few ref, nothing drastic like buds, but lately it just feels like a lot of sellers just seem to panic sell at the slightest drop when it comes to certain items now. Then the item rises when the panic dies out, they rise, and like you mentioned, the process just happens all over again.

 

I think it's because most people have figured out you can make easy profit by exploiting currency trends.  It's just a matter of correctly identifying when to buy in and when to sell out.  So you have a bunch of people sitting around waiting for those moments, and when those moments happen, they all pounce.  I think it effects the intensity of the trends by making them more dramatic.

 

...and then you have backpack.tf, which is basically manipulating the market indirectly whenever something like this happens.  Since it is still showing the old price, people use that as a buffer to try and screw over traders who haven't caught on to the trend yet and who only go by whatever the last accepted bp.tf price says.  The longer we go without an updated price, the more people start thinking "it hasn't dropped yet", and the more of a drag this places on the speed of the trend.  A well timed lag in price updates can have the effect of slowing or even reversing a dip or a raise in the price of an item.  This is where some room for intentional manipulation exists, and it would be difficult to prove.

 

When it comes to the price of currencies, I think it is unethical to stick with the current system.  I'd much rather see an automated system which tracks the average price of trades and allows anyone to look at the raw data.

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My theory is that all the people who bought keys with Easter money(usually novice players) want ref for hats/reskins quick, so they are quickselling keys. This led to a domino effect and lowered the price of keys. Same thing happened after Smissmas, and prices went right back up eventually.

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Since it is still showing the old price, people use that as a buffer to try and screw over traders who haven't caught on to the trend yet and who only go by whatever the last accepted bp.tf price says.  The longer we go without an updated price, the more people start thinking "it hasn't dropped yet", and the more of a drag this places on the speed of the trend.  A well timed lag in price updates can have the effect of slowing or even reversing a dip or a raise in the price of an item.  This is where some room for intentional manipulation exists, and it would be difficult to prove.

 

I unfortunately fell into this category of trader since I was unable to catch the trend of keys dropping in time to not buy one for 20 ref; I tend not to buy keys often with ref, so I failed to catch the trend shift since, at the time, keys selling at 20 ref were being bought pretty quickly. I can definitely see how some traders can manipulate that knowledge for themselves though.

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I unfortunately fell into this category of trader since I was unable to catch the trend of keys dropping in time to not buy one for 20 ref; I tend not to buy keys often with ref, so I failed to catch the trend shift since, at the time, keys selling at 20 ref were being bought pretty quickly. I can definitely see how some traders can manipulate that knowledge for themselves though.

 

Something  learned a long time ago was that with an item traded as heavily as keys or buds, you have to be constantly monitoring outpost and the classifieds (and these days, SCM) to look for changes and also to help predict changes to some extent.  Checking tf2finance can often be helpful as well.  With the current system, backpack.tf will always be lagging behind the current market value by at least a day or two whenever there is a change, and with heavily traded items, changes can happen very quickly. 

 

That's one of the major flaws that makes bp.tf so unreliable; the way the system is set up, you will inevitably have a lag between when the market shifts and when the price is updated.  This is why I laugh when most people claim bp.tf is leading the market.  By design, it's actually following the market, and doing it poorly in many cases.

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Haha, I have 6 keys and this happened right at the start of my second school term, so I missed it.

 

Anyway my logic - that I would have followed even if I hadn't missed the sudden drop from 20 to 17 ref - is don't join the panic and sell everything, you'll just make it worse. Keep what you have, buy the keys when they low; they'll always eventually rise again. I only came into trading January this year - bought a few keys on marketplace.tf, had a $8.35 backpack first time I went onto backpack.tf and now my inventory is $74.38 and peaked at $83 (values according to backpack.tf) before the key drop and me buying a ton of cards to level up my profile. I ain't gonna loose my head now.

 

In my limited knowledge and experience, and reading threads like this - dips have happened before but overall keys will slowly rise. 

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