The key price thread

[ScrapTF Bat-Country]

I wanna see, how long it takes to crack the 20 or 25 refined line. I bet it just takes another year, because the traders are greedy as hell.

You are fairly optimistic and dont consider the exponential function in the price curve. Since we broke the magical psychological barrier of 10 refined, keys skyrocket.

We are already almost at 15 Ref, within 1 Month. We will reach 25 Ref before March 2015.

 

 

Maybe an interesting tale for you guys: We have 500 keys sold to scrap.tf keybots daily (the number almost never changes if we are not bothering to update our prices to current "market" prices).

 

When keys breached the 10 Refined mark the first time, we kept key prices at 9.55 Ref for quite a while, people still sold to us when bp.tf keyprice was at around 10.55 Refined.

Of course, users have started to "camp" the bots for the next available keys, some even using automation (e.g. userscripts, bots,... they got banned)...

I've researched what happened with the "cheap" keys being bought.... guess what, all of the camping buyers (those who do nothing else than buy keys on scraptf) have re-sold them on outpost above current bp.tf prices...

"Non-daytraders" who bought maybe one or two keys from our bots instead used the "cheap" keys to either unbox or trade-in for another item they wanted.

 

This is the sad truth of this unregulated economy... waste hours of your day pressing F5 on a cheap keybanking bot just to make a few bucks profit each day.

Oh yeah and if you ask "Wtf why do people do that?", well guess what... a lot of TF2 traders aren't even 16 years old, they dont understand or dont care about consequences of their actions or how much time they waste on it, mommy pays the electricity bill and the daily meal is for free... then theres another group of TF2 traders who live in countries where gaining profit from the TF2 economy is simply more worthwhile than getting a shitty wage on some badly paid job under bad working conditions, so for them its a matter of going to bed hungry and cold or not, depending on how much money they earned with trading today.

[ScrapTF Bat-Country]

Its not just an increase in Refined, its a lack of purpose. Ref can be used to craft hats and as a currency. Thats it. As time goes on the hats become more and more common, and unlike stranges, the ability to craft a hat never expires like how crates stop being dropped. That combined with the fact that keys are inherently tied to a fixed dollar amount drives the price of ref down as time goes on as it serves less and less of a purpose. 

 

And then there is the secondary issue that caused keys to rise -- speculation about the key supply dropping when the SCM was first launched was what originally helped drive up prices, and the speculation has just continued to this day -- "Oh well, if I don't buy those keys now, they'll just be more expensive tomorrow....so I might as well buy them now."

So its a mix of fundamental and psychological reasons. I agree with you on that.

 

But IMO Valve won't bother "fixing" TF2 anymore... it became uninteresting for them, they got new goals and visions with other games and the best thing you can hope for is some upgrade they copied right away from improvements made to another game (example: context menu on backpacks and duck hunt event copied from CS:GO)... its just a Cash-Cow (next stage: RIP), generating a fair amount of profit from Mann Co. Store sales and SCM fees while putting the least necessary effort into maintaining it.

 

---

Since the main purpose of Refined, to craft new hats, is kinda obsolete (theres only one recipe and the chances of getting some cancer instead of a new valuable hat is pretty high), Valve should add a new recipe to increase incentive in crafting new hats again (its not going to happen, valve doesnt care anymore IMHO.)

 

---

The idea would be: You have to craft X Refined + 1 Specific Crate Series to get a random Hat which would be contained in the crate. (X [lets say 8 Refined] has to be determined to find a balance between the value of unboxing and crafting)

Unboxing won't become obsolete, because Unusuals, Tools, Taunts, Stranges, Strange Parts and anything else contained in a crate besides unique cosmetics still can only be obtained via unboxing with a key. But at the same time you can increase your own odds to get a hat you actually want instead of some random garbage. A nice side effect would be that the demand on crates would increase, while there is a limited supply of crates.

 

Of course this is not going to happen, theres no profit in it for Valve in the short/medium timespan they still give TF2 before it dies down and can only be kept alive by the community.

[Tats]

If that was the case, then how come keys suddenly stopped increasing and the started to drop....and then started increasing again? If what you're saying is true, then keys should NEVER have started decreasing in the first place, and once they had they should NEVER had started to increase again. 

 

Said it between the lines, artificial increase and greed. If prices were fixed for a least a week or 2, then people wouldn't speculate on it as it is actually.

 

Backpack.tf is not the market. Learn to understand the difference. If backpack.tf were to accept a suggestion changing the price of keys to 2.33, the site would simply lose credibility and people will move on to somewhere else.

 

Where did I say that backpack was the market ? Yep Backpack is not the market as it is a small group of voters that upvote key prices, and BP.tf is losing its credibility.

[Heated Bread]

Said it between the lines, artificial increase and greed. If prices were fixed for a least a week or 2, then people wouldn't speculate on it as it is actually.

 

 

Where did I say that backpack was the market ? Yep Backpack is not the market as it is a small group of voters that upvote key prices, and BP.tf is losing its credibility.

 

Just a general note to everyone complaining about keys:

 

Greedy people are the ones who want to buy things for less than fair market value, aka "waaaaah keys are too expensive!".

 

Keys are the same price they've always been, while metal is becoming worth less and less.  Deal with it.  And learn to frame the discussion in its proper context while you're at it.  Claiming that keys are raising in price when they're not just makes you look stupid.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Said it between the lines, artificial increase and greed.

 

If prices were fixed for a least a week or 2, then people wouldn't speculate on it as it is actually.

No, greed is expecting someone to sell something for less than what they can easily sell it for. 

 

Right, so by that logic 1) keys NEVER should've started to decrease, and 2) keys should NEVER have started to increase again after decreasing. Yet both happened...clearly the market drives itself. 

[Tats]

Greed is all about speculation unless the value increases. Valve highered keys price on store and their metal increased, this is normal market mecanism.

What you call market is rougly 1500 voters than decide wether or not increase the price of keys. Last suggestion, the guy owns 58 keys and call for an increase, who's talked about greed ? It's been the same for about 4 months now... Somebody initiated an inflation bubble, and then it comes to such a situation. People are anticipating artificial price increase and sell it above normal price, when fixed price runs dry then comes another increase. I don't say BP.tf should fix a flat price for a decade, I say as keys are a TF2 main currency, they should fix the price for 1 or 2 weeks before someone can resuggest a price. A price that is udapted once a week or 2 won't skyrocket as it does actually.

 

BP.tf is not the market because there are a lot a transactions outdoors, because the voters are just a few compared to all TF2 traders, but it has a great influence over the market. I think they should keep it in mind and shouldn't lose their credibility letting few voters upvoting constant increase. If they don't, keys will reach ridiculous refined prices and metal will be left aside (just for crafting or restrictive use).

 

Don't say I am greedy because I have lots of items on Steam market, I buy keys and convert them into metal. I just think prices are going crazy and simply call to people's reason.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Greed is all about speculation unless the value increases. Valve highered keys price on store and their metal increased, this is normal market mecanism.

What you call market is rougly 1500 voters than decide wether or not increase the price of keys. Last suggestion, the guy owns 58 keys and call for an increase, who's talked about greed ? It's been the same for about 4 months now... Somebody initiated an inflation bubble, and then it comes to such a situation. People are anticipating artificial price increase and sell it above normal price, when fixed price runs dry then comes another increase. I don't say BP.tf should fix a flat price for a decade, I say as keys are a TF2 main currency, they should fix the price for 1 or 2 weeks before someone can resuggest a price. A price that is udapted once a week or 2 won't skyrocket as it does actually.

 

BP.tf is not the market because there are a lot a transactions outdoors, because the voters are just a few compared to all TF2 traders, but it has a great influence over the market. I think they should keep it in mind and shouldn't lose their credibility letting few voters upvoting constant increase. If they don't, keys will reach ridiculous refined prices and metal will be left aside (just for crafting or restrictive use).

 

Don't say I am greedy because I have lots of items on Steam market, I buy keys and convert them into metal. I just think prices are going crazy and simply call to people's reason.

Again, if bptf controlled the market then a change in direction would never occur since people should always be buying for 1 scrap more...

 

You do realize no sane person who has 58 keys gives two shits what the ref-key value is as he will rarely ever trade across that boundary. Do you know when the last time is that I sold a key for metal? two years ago....why? because ref is fucking useless. 

 

And you are greedy if you honestly expect someone to sell something for less because you're too cheap to pay what EVERYONE else is paying. (or if you expect to get free money from a free game)

[Gren]

Greed is all about speculation unless the value increases. Valve highered keys price on store and their metal increased, this is normal market mecanism.

What you call market is rougly 1500 voters than decide wether or not increase the price of keys. Last suggestion, the guy owns 58 keys and call for an increase, who's talked about greed ? It's been the same for about 4 months now... Somebody initiated an inflation bubble, and then it comes to such a situation. People are anticipating artificial price increase and sell it above normal price, when fixed price runs dry then comes another increase. I don't say BP.tf should fix a flat price for a decade, I say as keys are a TF2 main currency, they should fix the price for 1 or 2 weeks before someone can resuggest a price. A price that is udapted once a week or 2 won't skyrocket as it does actually.

 

BP.tf is not the market because there are a lot a transactions outdoors, because the voters are just a few compared to all TF2 traders, but it has a great influence over the market. I think they should keep it in mind and shouldn't lose their credibility letting few voters upvoting constant increase. If they don't, keys will reach ridiculous refined prices and metal will be left aside (just for crafting or restrictive use).

 

Don't say I am greedy because I have lots of items on Steam market, I buy keys and convert them into metal. I just think prices are going crazy and simply call to people's reason.

 

Couple of things:  The reason why those key suggestions are accepted is because there's plenty of proof that people are easily selling at the new suggested price.  So don't blame the voters or the mods, blame the people that sell and buy at a higher price than the current backpack price, they are the ones providing the evidence.  

 

Secondly, as already pointed out, the guy with 50 keys in his backpack isn't making a suggestion out of greed.  He's not selling keys for ref.  I've explained in another topic just how retarded flipping keys for refined is (you'll never make profit because you'll just move with the market....well, unless you call a scrap per trade profit).  No high tier trader got where he is by flipping keys and high tier traders aren't buying keys with ref, they're buying them via paypal.  

 

Thirdly, let's say that bp froze the price of keys.  Here's what would happen:  every key put up for trade at the frozen price would get traded within seconds and re-listed at a higher price.  The same mechanic that Bat Country explained.  So freezing keys isn't going to do shit, because sellers know damn well that they can sell for higher than the current price.   

 

You think it's the system, but it's not.  It's actually those thousands of traders that you're speaking of that aren't active voters.  Sure, they'll upvote a suggestion to bring keys back down to 10 ref.  But all they'd do is buy for ten and sell for fifteen.  So when you say "greed is to blame" , maybe you're not entirely wrong.  But it's not the greed of traders with thousand dollar backpacks, it's the greed of small-time traders who think that making one rec profit (like 5 cents?) is good profit for an hour of work.  Blame those guys, not the bp system.  

[Cave]

R.I.P. Lowering keys.

[Tats]

Again, if bptf controlled the market then a change in direction would never occur since people should always be buying for 1 scrap more...

 

You do realize no sane person who has 58 keys gives two shits what the ref-key value is as he will rarely ever trade across that boundary. Do you know when the last time is that I sold a key for metal? two years ago....why? because ref is fucking useless. 

 

And you are greedy if you honestly expect someone to sell something for less because you're too cheap to pay what EVERYONE else is paying. (or if you expect to get free money from a free game)

 

I still buy nice cosmetics with refined metal, not making money out of refined. It's a very convenient currency whereas you can't pay with 1/4 or half a key. I won't spend 2 Euros or dollars in one item especially if it's just a cosmetic item or weapon. Don't call it greed, I don't pay for a few pixels and I am sorry for you if you do.

[♥Prof. Sugarcube♥]

I still buy nice cosmetics with refined metal, not making money out of refined. It's a very convenient currency whereas you can't pay with 1/4 or half a key. I won't spend 2 Euros or dollars in one item especially if it's just a cosmetic item or weapon. Don't call it greed, I don't pay for a few pixels and I am sorry for you if you do.

 

You can get the key for free using free metal you get from free weekly drops ._.

 

You can make money without spending any ._.

 

So why are you complaining about spending money on a game in which you don't have to?

[Tats]

You can get the key for free using free metal you get from free weekly drops ._.

 

You can make money without spending any ._.

 

So why are you complaining about spending money on a game in which you don't have to?

 

I said I pay in refined metal = it means I don't spend real money.

 

If I pay in refined metal, I don't use it to make money buying keys for ref.

 

So I am not complaining about spending money, WTF are you saying ?

[Tats]

Thirdly, let's say that bp froze the price of keys.  Here's what would happen:  every key put up for trade at the frozen price would get traded within seconds and re-listed at a higher price.  The same mechanic that Bat Country explained.  So freezing keys isn't going to do shit, because sellers know damn well that they can sell for higher than the current price.   

 

 

People are anticipating the increase, if you stop the increase, they will sell it above the price but they base on the fixed price. I call for regular udapte every 1 or 2 weeks in order to regulate. Otherwise, items that are denominated in refined will see their price follow the key prices and higher their value in refined to compensate which leads to instability.

[cares]

Greed is all about speculation unless the value increases. Valve highered keys price on store and their metal increased, this is normal market mecanism.

What you call market is rougly 1500 voters than decide wether or not increase the price of keys. Last suggestion, the guy owns 58 keys and call for an increase, who's talked about greed ? It's been the same for about 4 months now... Somebody initiated an inflation bubble, and then it comes to such a situation. People are anticipating artificial price increase and sell it above normal price, when fixed price runs dry then comes another increase. I don't say BP.tf should fix a flat price for a decade, I say as keys are a TF2 main currency, they should fix the price for 1 or 2 weeks before someone can resuggest a price. A price that is udapted once a week or 2 won't skyrocket as it does actually.

 

BP.tf is not the market because there are a lot a transactions outdoors, because the voters are just a few compared to all TF2 traders, but it has a great influence over the market. I think they should keep it in mind and shouldn't lose their credibility letting few voters upvoting constant increase. If they don't, keys will reach ridiculous refined prices and metal will be left aside (just for crafting or restrictive use).

 

Don't say I am greedy because I have lots of items on Steam market, I buy keys and convert them into metal. I just think prices are going crazy and simply call to people's reason.

 

Let's just bring back carded keys and the problem will be solved, unusuals worth shit, buds worth many dozen keys, keys in the gutter.

[shadyfan]

In my opinion, there's one simple solution to stop increasing keys' value in refined. It doesn't involve Valve (because oviously they don't care about it, they're even happy because people will buy more keys from the mann co store), it doesn't even involve sellers. It's just about the buyers. If everyone boycotts buying keys at this rate, sellers will be forced to ask for less metal.

 

So the reason for the high price of keys in metal is actually the buyers. We really can't blame the sellers for them (not to mention bp.tf which just monitors the sales), if there are people willing to pay this high price.

[TheMightyPotato]

 one simple solution

 

If everyone boycotts buying keys at this rate, sellers will be forced to ask for less metal.

 

 

Yeah, good luck with that.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

In my opinion, there's one simple solution to stop increasing keys' value in refined. It doesn't involve Valve (because oviously they don't care about it, they're even happy because people will buy more keys from the mann co store), it doesn't even involve sellers. It's just about the buyers. If everyone boycotts buying keys at this rate, sellers will be forced to ask for less metal.

 

So the reason for the high price of keys in metal is actually the buyers. We really can't blame the sellers for them (not to mention bp.tf which just monitors the sales), if there are people willing to pay this high price.

The problem with that is there are plenty of people like me, who really couldn't give two shits what the price of keys are and will pay whatever buyers are currently asking in order to convert any metal gotten from sweets into keys. 

[cares]

The problem with that is there are plenty of people like me, who really couldn't give two shits what the price of keys are and will pay whatever buyers are currently asking in order to convert any metal gotten from sweets into keys. 

 

I second this.

[Slocumruls]

The problem with that is there are plenty of people like me, who really couldn't give two shits what the price of keys are and will pay whatever buyers are currently asking in order to convert any metal gotten from sweets into keys. 

I really don't convert metal to keys or keys to metal directly if I can avoid it at all. It makes no logical sense. Just use your metal on top of a key or 2 quickbuying other stuff. Makes your buy price slightly better than competitors without really adding much at all.

[Ybot14]

Is it even possible for valve to decrease the value of keys by maybe giving keys away or making another way to get them?

[buddhapest]

Is it even possible for valve to decrease the value of keys by maybe giving keys away or making another way to get them?

this thread is becoming kind of like world history.  very very repetitive...

 

valve didn't make the exchange rate of keys to metal.  the traders did it all on their own.  so why would they care to do anything about this artificial exchange rate.

 

like Scromculs, i don't exchange metal for keys - i never have.

 

i really wish that backpack.tf didn't price everything in terms of refined in its internal database...  the refined to keys exchange rate shouldn't be built into the model.

 

items traded in keys should be priced in keys (and the $ value of keys which is stable).  items traded in refined should be priced in refined (and the $ value of refined which is not).

 

instead bp.tf converts from keys to refined to $$$s simply because of an engineering implementation decision which causes the key/metal ratio to seem way more important than it actually is.

[ScrapTF Bat-Country]

Is it even possible for valve to decrease the value of keys by maybe giving keys away or making another way to get them?

Its possible, by creating something that makes refined more desireable again. Of course, this will only be a temporary effect. See: Bread Boxes craftable with 4 refined.

[Mexican Citrus]

Well, who thought they would ever recycle useless emoticons? It makes me think that Valve may actually add something to make Ref more useful, what that is, I dunno. But certainly not crafting Keys/ToD tickets. Maybe the ability to craft some strange stock reskin (that can only be obtained by trading for via said crafting) with 10 Ref or something? Who knows.

 

Otherwise, unless Keys go on sale, people better brace for 20 Ref, cause it seems to be speeding up. Why is it speeding up? Because the community likes one arbitrary currency over another one, there was never any reason with it to begin with.

 

I can tell you one thing though. While I think the current prices are pretty ridiculous, I actually like it. I only trade unusuals, so Keys being an ungodly high price allows me to buy shittons of cheap cosmetics and orange paint to throw all over the place.

[Neobenedict]

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54974392b98d88e3228b49d0

 

Did I do good?

 

I don't know what this economy has become... not anymore :/

1 ref jump is too big... too big. Maybe this is the end.

[Heated Bread]

I'm going to quote a post that I just made in another thread:

 

These days it's way easier to get keys by selling stuff on the community market.  Realistically, the only barrier is the 200 sales per year limit, and that only applies to the U.S. and only if you don't want to provide certain personal details.  Trading metal for keys is kind of antiquated.  This is also why some people say the game is dying - because they see less trading in-game.  The fact is that a lot of trading now takes place on the community market.

 

In truth, refined was killed by the community market, although metal being more abundant and less in demand was also an important factor.