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The key price thread


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181 members have voted

  1. 1. Should Keys Go Up Or Down? Would They Help The Economy If They Are Higher?

    • Up / Yes
      59
    • Down / No
      122


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As long as the refine situation doesn't change, keys will go up but there's not reason to expect it to run up linearly or that it must hit 50 ref right now right here today. 

 

I bet there were quite a bit of hoarders during the last boom and they are panicking to sell as soon price started showing some slack.  Observing the long term trend, there really is nowhere to go but up.

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So keys are going down because people would wouldn't buy them at 20. The thing is now people are competing for sales, as I said before how key price is being risen by bots on op how they are driving it down. Which forces everyone else to sell ate their lower price witch then is used in evidence for price to go down on bp.Tf suggestions. This will stop when sellers refuse to go lower. I just don't know when this will happen

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Well, it seems that many trade.tf traders stopped lowering their prices at 16.77 refined and currently, keys are gradually rising.

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Well, it seems that many trade.tf traders stopped lowering their prices at 16.77 refined and currently, keys are gradually rising.

Classifieds listings already don't go lower than 16.77, with alot of sellers at 17 being listed and auto trades being almost instantly taken.

Keys goin' up again.

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Since Valve added a new restrictions (people who spent less than $5 can't send trade requests) do you think this will affect key prices?

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Since Valve added a new restrictions (people who spent less than $5 can't send trade requests) do you think this will affect key prices?

no most people have at least spent this much on games and if not they couldn't afford keys anyway
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This is why I laugh when most people claim bp.tf is leading the market. By design, it's actually following the market, and doing it poorly in many cases.

I agree that it does lag behind trends but imo many of those changes are brought about by bp.tf. So you end up with a circle of cause and effect.

 

I remember when a few months ago bp.tf was down for a few hours and listings for keys plummeted like crazy and shot back up as soon as it came back. Not really sure why they dropped so sharply though

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  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...

Flipping keys is a good idea, if that's what you mean.

I have done that made several or so scrap so I think I have been doing well.

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I have done that made several or so scrap so I think I have been doing well.

 

Meaning you made 1 or 2 scrap from something that cost you 19 Ref.  19 Ref = 171 Scrap.  So if you made 1 scrap on that key you barely made .05% profit.  That is an absolutely terrible profit margin.  I've said it before and I'll say it again:  Flipping keys is one of the worst ways to make profit in TF2.  Guaranteed profit sure, but the margins are so small that you may as well not even bother, especially considering that it's easy to make at least 1 Rec from most craft hats and cosmetics.  

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Meaning you made 1 or 2 scrap from something that cost you 19 Ref.  19 Ref = 171 Scrap.  So if you made 1 scrap on that key you barely made .05% profit.  That is an absolutely terrible profit margin.  I've said it before and I'll say it again:  Flipping keys is one of the worst ways to make profit in TF2.  Guaranteed profit sure, but the margins are so small that you may as well not even bother, especially considering that it's easy to make at least 1 Rec from most craft hats and cosmetics.  

most people who do this automate the process.  trade.tf's mybot does it all for you

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most people who do this automate the process.  trade.tf's mybot does it all for you

 

I was quoting a guy who said he made several scraps flipping keys.   Automated or not, that still totally sucks.  

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Flipping keys can be profitable but it's now not much better than the old practice of scrap banking.  Profits are in small increments and progress is very gradual.  There are better, faster, easier ways to profit.

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Ok i made a recent sugestion to update the key pricing but forgot to add enough info and i should have posted here first :P

In that regard i wish to knew if this is enough proof that the key pricing should or not infact update since there are some people starting to sell and buy cheap

 

 
thx.
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I've got to say, the rate at which keys are starting to go down price is troubling.

I'm really hoping keys won't go the way of the bud and just super crash.

 

The advent of all this are key flipping bots and I hate them so much. It's a lousy business practice (to advertise you're buying their keys cheap in order to flip for profit), and they can set the price of the market because they are trying to make as much profit as possible. If it's the same as with buds, bots are going to start selling keys for less and less to try and save as much profit as possible, and they will crash as well.

I know it's a literally early to be a doomsayer about this, but the rate already that keys are going down is troubling.

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I've got to say, the rate at which keys are starting to go down price is troubling.

I'm really hoping keys won't go the way of the bud and just super crash.

 

The advent of all this are key flipping bots and I hate them so much. It's a lousy business practice (to advertise you're buying their keys cheap in order to flip for profit), and they can set the price of the market because they are trying to make as much profit as possible. If it's the same as with buds, bots are going to start selling keys for less and less to try and save as much profit as possible, and they will crash as well.

I know it's a literally early to be a doomsayer about this, but the rate already that keys are going down is troubling.

This is a bit long winded.... WARNING, I did not check for readability.

 

Since metal has been used for the new update to craft the new craftables, the key price will go down....

But soon after the update, metal will decrease and the key price will go back up.

Keys will never crash as they have a stable use, as CURRENCY. They have an actual use ie. Unboxing. The difference with earbuds is that, they were just a limited cosmetic.... Which could be duped alot and there is no other use for it besides cosmetic. The community gave it value not Valve. Seeing as All TF2 keys must come from the store in the beginning, they still have stable value.

 

EVERY UPDATE where there is metal involved and NEW keys, the price fluctuates, this happens every time. It's normal and there isn't anything to worry about. Thats why keys fluctuate on paypal as well. As someone who is fairly involved with flipping keys for money, the price fluctuates quite a bit taking in these factors....

 

1. Is there an update out that requires keys? (Halloween Update)

2. Are games on sale, will this cause an increase? (Steam Summer Sale...)

3. What are other items that are in demand? (Seeing as earbuds have become less valued as a currency, there is a greater need for keys, therefore increased the price of keys when buds dropped.)

4. How many sellers are there, and how negotiable are they on their prices? (As a bulk buyer, this is imperative to keep track of to keep your prices at the best possible for maximum profit.)

5. Where are all the keys? (Who is currently hoarding the majority of keys... As keys that come into the market are from the steam store, or scm, who is using them, and are they being put back into the market, or is someone sitting on a few thousand.)

Note: There is always discrepencies from Refined  -> Key price -> Bud price, which should be expected, take for example the TF2 -> CSGO key ratio. 

 

*To go a bit more off Metal. The current price .11-.12 has been off for a while, I know this because I've tried selling refined, the only plausible way to sell refined is if you have 1000+ and have a bulk buyer... which doesn't entirely make sense. You can easily find refined for .08$ per. And whoever is buying for .11-.12 chooses to remain anonymous and no one wants to share. The only reason metal is of more value per say in game right now is because they have a purpose, due to the update.... Otherwise prices would restabilize at earlier prices.

 

 

When talking about Keys we need to understand that there is a new matter involved when understanding new stable key prices since earbuds fell a lot. Keys before used to be stable between 1.80 - 1.90$.... And recently have been stable at $1.95 - 2.00...

What does this really mean? It means that since there is no other item in DEMAND 99% of the time cause buds and refined are not as important, the price of keys will now remain higher than before as a stable price. And buds, may go back up, its sort of in limbo... really depends on the community, as of now, they could just die out, or stabilize a bit, But not really seeing them going up beyond 10 keys... But ya never know, might prove me wrong. Metal on the other hand will fluctuate depending on update to update, and what its level of usefulness in the present.

 

Sort of rambly... But its not the 'death of a nation' as people have been overexaggerating. People will always want the new items. People said it about killstreaks, this is just something new, silly? YES, still liked by the majority? YES...

 

Game won't die unless it loses its whole userbase, which I don't see happening any time soon. Economy will take time to settle, but as long as people put money into it, there is no way it'll die.

 

I hope this helped. :|

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(ALL THAT POST)

Well that kind of make sense now for me. To be honest I haven't taken part in the Gun Mettle campaign stuff, so I didn't know that refined metal was involved. This makes me feel a little better about the situation.

 

Also to clarify I normally understand the fluctuation of key prices around Halloween/Smissmass/Steam Sale, but thought that this key drop was only due to it being a big update, or what a lot of my other trader friends were talking about in that they hated the update and wanted to cash out, and being sort of out of things lately I haven't gauged where the community is about the update and figured it was panned.

 

Thank you for clarifying for others and me, a good refresher is always good :)

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Well that kind of make sense now for me. To be honest I haven't taken part in the Gun Mettle campaign stuff, so I didn't know that refined metal was involved. This makes me feel a little better about the situation.

 

Also to clarify I normally understand the fluctuation of key prices around Halloween/Smissmass/Steam Sale, but thought that this key drop was only due to it being a big update, or what a lot of my other trader friends were talking about in that they hated the update and wanted to cash out, and being sort of out of things lately I haven't gauged where the community is about the update and figured it was panned.

 

Thank you for clarifying for others and me, a good refresher is always good :)

 

I think you misunderstood. From what I've understood its not the actual campaign that uses metal, but the new craftables. ie. Black Rose and Timewatch (?) something like that.

 

Overexaggeration at its finest. Whenever a new update comes out, people panic 'ahh economy is dying'. Do I particularly like the update? not really, kinda boring, not as good as it could be. Am I going to panic and cash out? No. Am I going to take advantage of the people who are panicing and selling keys for paypal cheap? Yes.

 

The community is fine with this update, just some people are silly. Any update, that introduces a new campaign, or playable map, is typically going to effect the community with new items. New items = fluxuation when considering any of the none year round updates that are regular.

 

Some smaller effects would be if a weapon that wasn't popular before got super buffed or super debuffed, can cause a little effect on increasing that particular weapons price or decreasing it. It's all about demand.

 

If you have anything else, feel free to pm me... I tried to put some aesthetics to make my MONSTER essay easier to read... Didn't think I would right that much. 

heh...  :D

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-

 

It seems like it's just people panic selling keys. According to stats about 500 Black Roses were crafted, 1 craft being 0.66 and the chance to get one was 1/7, it amounts to about 2.5k metal being crafted which is nowhere near enough. At least 300 keys were spent on unboxing Strange Normals, so it should balance out, yet there is an interesting drop.

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Something to add: 

 

As outlined by Appolo, keys going down currently is most likely related to the crafting component of the update.  Also, there are plenty of these new skins floating around now, most of which are under a key, and people want to get their hands on those.  So they exchange their keys for ref so they can easily buy the new skins.  

 

It's a fallacy to believe that high key prices = healthy economy.  Not that it can't be true, but a lot of the time keys go up when the economy is at a low point, because keys are always the safest item to invest in (in the worst case scenario where this economy goes down the drain, keys will be the easiest thing to quickly dump and limit losses). 

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Holy crap.... I just got back into TF2 after this update (stopped sometime early 2013) and why are key prices so ridiculously high? When I left they were fluctuating around 3 ref, and talk of key price inflation was everywhere. Now they are around 6x times the price! What happened? I stopped playing over 2 years ago, and that is a large time gap, but still. It's really intimidating now that I want to get into TF2 again.

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Holy crap.... I just got back into TF2 after this update (stopped sometime early 2013) and why are key prices so ridiculously high? When I left they were fluctuating around 3 ref, and talk of key price inflation was everywhere. Now they are around 6x times the price! What happened? I stopped playing over 2 years ago, and that is a large time gap, but still. It's really intimidating now that I want to get into TF2 again.

 

Help! Keys are $14.94 in the store now!

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Help! Keys are $14.94 in the store now!

Guess I wasn't clear enough, the price in ref for keys is 6x as much as it was when I last played, and I'm asking why that might be.

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