The key price thread

[MattOnCola]

I came here by my own thoughts I wanted too at least have some sort of appreciation for trying too discuss this. But apparently I'm disregarded due too my attempt. Apparently I can't assert my thoughts on something at all? Well you can keep pressing that green arrow because when February is here it will hit 15 ref. And once again making assumptions against me like "what you're doing is attempting to blame the messenger for reporting on the activity of the market." Is not what I was doing but thank you for showing me that I can't put in any input.

[Heated Bread]

I came here by my own thoughts I wanted too at least have some sort of appreciation for trying too discuss this. But apparently I'm disregarded due too my attempt. Apparently I can't assert my thoughts on something at all? Well you can keep pressing that green arrow because when February is here it will hit 15 ref. And once again making assumptions against me like "what you're doing is attempting to blame the messenger for reporting on the activity of the market." Is not what I was doing but thank you for showing me that I can't put in any input.

 

Yeah, you should go.   You're basically just doing the online equivalent of plugging your ears and humming loudly.  There's really no reasoning with you, as you have repeatedly demonstrated.

[❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤]

Very first post, here goes nothing.

 

 

That's me, I've just about had it with these rising prices.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't want to blame anyone, and I believe that the very fact that keys are selling at this price says that this is the actual price for them.

 

This doesn't make it any less disheartening.

 

The way I see currencies:

 

Refined = the only currency I'll ever know :'(

Keys = something to get so you can just wait for the price to go up

Buds = something I can only wish that I had

Max's head = what's that?

 

I am probably horribly wrong about this, and there may be hope for me to actually make it into *gulp* unusual trading. (WITHOUT SPENDING MONEY)

 

so correction would be appreciated.

max is not vital currency.keys are I have a 70 buds bp and I never had a max so you don't feel bad about it.

after all there are nicer hats out there.

[❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤]

I came here by my own thoughts I wanted too at least have some sort of appreciation for trying too discuss this. But apparently I'm disregarded due too my attempt. Apparently I can't assert my thoughts on something at all? Well you can keep pressing that green arrow because when February is here it will hit 15 ref. And once again making assumptions against me like "what you're doing is attempting to blame the messenger for reporting on the activity of the market." Is not what I was doing but thank you for showing me that I can't put in any input.

1 key will never be 15 ref

ever.

[Heated Bread]

1 key will never be 15 ref

ever.

 

I dunno man.  Never say never.  A couple years ago, I thought they'd never go to ten.

[❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤]

Okay but yet do you won't TF2 too hit such a economy breakdown? It's been pushing traders out of trade. They've been selling there entire backpacks for the up coming economic crash. Sure this could be a good thing but why force people too do that? Keys are out of control and it's been laid in community hands for pricing and all the community seems too care about is pressing a green arrow too raise the price. Not thinking on how the other majority of the community will react.

the guys that sell their entire bp's every now and then they are just alts that sell unwanted items for a bulk

its a common secret and mst of the times you can tell witch ones alt is by looking at the history of the items.

its the most efficiant way to get rid of hundred of unwanted items with 1 trade.

[❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤]

The crash of the economy is coming if the community don't bring the price down!

if the economy of tf2 crashes it will be good news for thousands of tf2 fans that cant afford an unusual.

I don't see the problem with that

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

1 key will never be 15 ref

ever.

 

I wouldn't necessarily say that; they might. 

the guys that sell their entire bp's every now and then they are just alts that sell unwanted items for a bulk

its a common secret and mst of the times you can tell witch ones alt is by looking at the history of the items.

its the most efficiant way to get rid of hundred of unwanted items with 1 trade.

Ummm, not always the case....someone has to supply those items to those bulk sellers

 

As someone whos purchased a few hundred backpacks, I can tell you that only a small portion were alts trying to get rid of the crap from their main.

I came here by my own thoughts I wanted too at least have some sort of appreciation for trying too discuss this. But apparently I'm disregarded due too my attempt. Apparently I can't assert my thoughts on something at all? Well you can keep pressing that green arrow because when February is here it will hit 15 ref. And once again making assumptions against me like "what you're doing is attempting to blame the messenger for reporting on the activity of the market." Is not what I was doing but thank you for showing me that I can't put in any input.

Theres a difference between having a discussion and making claims with absolutely no support to back them up and then disregarding everything else that has been said.

[Gren]

Holy f***ing shit.  This thread just keeps going.  

 

What I think is the most baffling thing about all of this complaining, economy crash predicting nonsense is that the very people who are complaining don't realize that things have gotten better for them, not worse.  Let me explain: 

 

I'm going to go ahead and generalize here, but I'm fairly certain that the people complaining about key/ref ratios are relatively poor.  These traders have only 21 ref and they're upset that they can't buy 3 keys with that anymore.  What they're failing to understand though, is the fact that you can buy all the other shit that's worth less than a key for less refined than before!  Don't believe me?  Not too long ago, TCs were a pretty easy sell at 1 Key.  Last time I checked, they were at 5 Ref.  This goes for a whole multitude of items, stranges, hats, miscs.   Yes, as keys go up in ref value, other items - not just ref - drop as well.   So in other words, put that ref to some good use and buy lots of items for less than what they were worth before.  

 

This is due to a number of reasons, which I won't get into now.  But I will address the backpack.tf accusation: 

 

backpack.tf isn't the reason why keys are constantly going up (and let's remember they also go back down, but yes, in the long run, they always go up).  There are many reasons for keys going up, and I won't get into them.  But there's one that's never talked about:  Keybanking is one of the worst ways to make profit in TF2.  Period.

 

Here's how it works:  

 

Let's say I have 3 Keys.  I sell them now for 10 Ref each.  Let's say this takes me about an hour where I'll have to sit at my computer and answer friend requests and trade offers.   Now I have 30 ref.  I'm a keybanker, so I'm trying to get more keys for less than 10 ref.  I'm aiming for 9.66.   I will eventually get 3 Keys at 9.66, but it will take a while, as there aren't many sellers at that price, and they get immediately flooded with adds and trade requests.  Let's say it takes me 2 hours to buy keys at 9.66 and this is with constant attention to backpack.tf, OP and trade.tf.  Now I turn around and sell those 3 keys for 10 ref.  Again, it takes me an hour.  I have just spent 4 hours of active trading and made ONE FUCKING REF.  One Ref is worth 20 fucking cents.  I could have found that in 10 minutes by just walking down the street and looking on the sidewalk.  What I should have done with those 3 Keys is quickbuy one item worth 4 keys for 3 keys and sold it again for 4 keys.  If I use my resources wisely (hint: trade.tf), this will not take me long.  So I have just made 10 Ref profit.  That's 10x as much as I do key banking.  

 

Selling keys for ref and trying to make profit is retarded.  It's a huge hassle with very small returns.  This is of course why there are never any keys available on scrap.tf - most people are smart enough to realize that selling keys for ref is fucking dumb and keys can be put to much better, more profitable use.  

 

So what does this have to do with keys rising?  Supply and demand.  While there's a lot of demand for keys for ref, there isn't much supply, meaning there aren't actually many people selling for ref.   When demand exceeds supply, prices go up.  I'm not making this up either, this is basic economic theory.  It's the same reason why keys have barely increased in paypal trading:  there's a steady supply and steady demand.  At the moment of course, it's a bit hard, people are unboxing for halloween.  You're probably paying 1.95 right now.  Don't worry, it'll drop back down to 1.85 after the event.  

 

There.  Now stop whining and just play the game which - let's not forget - YOU DIDN'T EVEN PAY FOR!  

 

FFS.....

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

So what does this have to do with keys rising?  Supply and demand.  While there's a lot of demand for keys for ref, there isn't much supply, meaning there aren't actually many people selling for ref. 

Oh damn....I didn't even notice this...when did this change.... 

 

I just did an OP search and there were only 80 trades bumped in the last half hour, about 100 trades bumped in the last hour; and only 400 in the past 27 hours. 

[Gren]

Oh damn....I didn't even notice this...when did this change.... 

 

I just did an OP search and there were only 80 trades bumped in the last half hour, about 100 trades bumped in the last hour; and only 400 in the past 27 hours. 

 

I wouldn't call that a lot considering keys are the second most traded item on OP after Refined. 

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

I wouldn't call that a lot considering keys are the second most traded item on OP after Refined.

Oh, I know, like a year ago there were 400 new key trades every 5 minutes.

[Blackest Jesus]

PEOPLE IF YOU COMPLAIN ABOUT THE PRICE OF KEYS ONE MORE TIME!!

 

IF YOU WANT THE PRICE TO GO DOWN...STOP BUYING THEM!

 

 

Reasons why?

1. Its seems everyone is buying them to then hold onto them for profit...so they keep selling at higher and higher prices!

 

2. People are unboxing more and more!

 

3. I dunno...shits cray 

 

Thoughts plz

 

Thanks

[Cedarium]

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6090-the-one-and-only-key-price-topic/

[Seminal Inhalation]

What.

[comfortable]

keyes keyes keyes

[Miss Waifu]

lol, hes right.. ive held these keys for ages.. even when they went down to like 8 refined.. and just keep waiting and waiting.. watching them go up

[AsG_Alligator]

I'm going to go ahead and generalize here, but I'm fairly certain that the people complaining about key/ref ratios are relatively poor.  These traders have only 21 ref and they're upset that they can't buy 3 keys with that anymore.  What they're failing to understand though, is the fact that you can buy all the other shit that's worth less than a key for less refined than before!  Don't believe me?  Not too long ago, TCs were a pretty easy sell at 1 Key.  Last time I checked, they were at 5 Ref.  This goes for a whole multitude of items, stranges, hats, miscs.   Yes, as keys go up in ref value, other items - not just ref - drop as well.   So in other words, put that ref to some good use and buy lots of items for less than what they were worth before.  

 

Problem is a lot of items worth 1+ key are still worth 1+ key in the pricesheet. Therefore those items' value is continuously rising as the key price rises, because people stick to the pricesheet very strictly.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

because people stick to the pricesheet very strictly.

Mind explaining to me why suggestions exist then; and how come there are hundreds on a daily basis? 

[Heated Bread]

Mind explaining to me why suggestions exist then; and how come there are hundreds on a daily basis? 

 

Or for that matter, how prices eventually change at all.  If everyone just blindly followed what backpack.tf said, then the market would never change on its own.  In reality, accepted suggestions are based on evidence showing that the market activity around a certain item has changed, but I guess he must think it's all a big scam, as if some person or group is deciding "this is going to be the price now" rather than it being basically the exact opposite of that.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Or for that matter, how prices eventually change at all.  If everyone just blindly followed what backpack.tf said, then the market would never change on its own. 

 

 

but I guess he must think it's all a big scam, as if some person or group is deciding "this is going to be the price now" rather than it being basically the exact opposite of that.

I.e. there would be no need for those hundreds of suggestions since prices would never change (not all of them are from unpriced items). 

 

shhhhhhhh, don't let the secret out. 

[cleverpun]

keyes keyes keyes

You mean Keynes?

[Ernie The Penguin]

I saw a post about this, and I think others may have, but would adding a tour of duty crafting system for 4 ref stabilize the key price?

 

ref prices would be stabilized, and then following keys. 

if im correct, $1 is a tod ticket so each ref would be .25

keys would be stabilized at 10 ref since they would cost $2.50

 

but im not even sure if i should use mann co store prices for this

 

The only thing I would worry about is the decreased prices of aussies and mvm prizes. 

[♥Prof. Sugarcube♥]

The economy itself is going too fall because of you key pricing fanatics. Who in which raise the price week for a while now. Soon they'll reach 15 refined metal once that happens the economy for Valve itself will fall.

 

Just hurry up, save us all the trouble and get banned already.

 

You are using false accusations, false proof and furthermore you are blaming a website which DICTATES the price, not runs the economy.

 

IF YOU WANT KEYS TO FALL, GO ANNOY THE SELLERS, THE BUYERS AND VALVE FOR MAKING REF USELESS.

[Slocumruls]

I saw a post about this, and I think others may have, but would adding a tour of duty crafting system for 4 ref stabilize the key price?

 

ref prices would be stabilized, and then following keys. 

if im correct, $1 is a tod ticket so each ref would be .25

keys would be stabilized at 10 ref since they would cost $2.50

 

but im not even sure if i should use mann co store prices for this

 

The only thing I would worry about is the decreased prices of aussies and mvm prizes. 

Making ToD tickets craftable would have absolutely no long term effect on the price of keys in ref. Tickets would simply maintain a fairly constant ref value while keys continue to increase in the long term. The only effects craftable tickets would have is that far fewer people would buy tickets from the Store or SCM due to the constant availability of ref to simply craft them for nearly free, thereby lowering australium/botkiller values and making mvm a less desireable game mode. Once people finished the crafting spree for tickets the price of keys in ref would continue to increase and the price of tickets in ref would remain constant.

Simple answer: VALVE will NEVER make tickets craftable because all it would do is lose an income source