The key price thread

[Pyroman]

-snip-

Boy that is genius

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

@soul eater

 

It won't matter..... If written so many posts/essays/articles explaining keys on various forums (here, sop, suggestions). The stk people don't want to listen to reason, they want to live in the past. They blame keys increasing for their bad trading habits rather than trying to change and progress.

 

//still couldn't give a single shit about keys rising.

[Pyroman]

@soul eater

 

It won't matter..... If written so many posts/essays/articles explaining keys on various forums (here, sop, suggestions). The stk people don't want to listen to reason, they want to live in the past. They blame keys increasing for their bad trading habits rather than trying to change and progress.

 

//still couldn't give a single shit about keys rising.

for some reason we're living in an alternate past, where buds are <20 keys and keys are 6ref+ while ref being at ~0.3$

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

for some reason we're living in an alternate past, where buds are <20 keys and keys are 6ref+ while ref being at ~0.3$

Except not so much as buds fluctuate down quite a bit leading up to halloween, and don't truly recover until after xmas. 

[ocu.TF ♥ TWP]

And in response to "Mr. I believe that market information crashes the economy":

One-sample t test
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Variable |     Obs        Mean    Std. Err.   Std. Dev.   [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
   price |    1360    6.035051    .0024293    .0895874    6.030286    6.039817
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    mean = mean(price)                                            t =  14.4288
Ho: mean = 6                                     degrees of freedom =     1359

    Ha: mean < 6                 Ha: mean != 6                 Ha: mean > 6
 Pr(T < t) = 1.0000         Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0000          Pr(T > t) = 0.0000

.

One-sample t test
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Variable |     Obs        Mean    Std. Err.   Std. Dev.   [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
   price |    1360    6.035051    .0024293    .0895874    6.030286    6.039817
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    mean = mean(price)                                            t =  -8.4404
Ho: mean = 6.05556                               degrees of freedom =     1359

 Ha: mean < 6.05556           Ha: mean != 6.05556           Ha: mean > 6.05556
 Pr(T < t) = 0.0000         Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0000          Pr(T > t) = 1.0000

 

 

This is what I was talking about, it's a step in the right direction. If only all suggestions had some sort of analysis like this. Thanks.

 

However, I'm not sure if a 1 sample t-test is the best choice for this. Also, where did you get your data? I'd like to play with it a little.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

This is what I was talking about, it's a step in the right direction. If only all suggestions had some sort of analysis like this. Thanks.

 

However, I'm not sure if a 1 sample t-test is the best choice for this. Also, where did you get your data? I'd like to play with it a little.

tf2 finance (he owns/runs it). He tracks key sales that occur on OP/servers. 

[The G What ™]

@soul eater

 

It won't matter..... If written so many posts/essays/articles explaining keys on various forums (here, sop, suggestions). The stk people don't want to listen to reason, they want to live in the past. They blame keys increasing for their bad trading habits rather than trying to change and progress.

 

//still couldn't give a single shit about keys rising.

I personally say Fuck the keys. It's not my fault or my problem that other people are too poor and too Irish to keep up.

[F CHARLIE]

I will predict their final price wil be set around December and then fluctuate again until January.

[Space Jesus]

Keys will probably settle around 7 ref, if we assume that ref stays around 30 cents. Sellers on Steam Market are getting over $2.00 for their keys (after factoring in steam fees, which buyer pays). If we assume sellers could get an easy $2.10 for their keys, that would match up exactly with 7 ref.

 

I think it's interesting that people blame keybots/resellers, when the biggest "culprit" for rising key prices was really the Steam Marketplace. Steam Marketplace rose the aftermarket value of keys, because now there is no risk in buying or selling. With paypal, you have shady traders and things can go wrong. That risk was baked into the price paypal sellers were asking. You really think a key worth $2.50 in store should REALLY sell for $1.35 - 1.40 aftermarket? If anything, Keys were undervalued in the old days because you had nothing else around to convert them to money/nothing extremely safe at least.

 

Now that steam market is around, Paypal sellers had to come up in price. You could make massive profit by buying keys under $1.50 from a guy on paypal, and sell them for an easy $2+ on market. So, with Market keys and Paypal keys going for more money, surely it would make sense for them to cost more Ref?

 

Posting this because I think it's bull that people blame "those guys on Outpost" or BP.TF for the key rises. If you want to be angry, be angry at Steam Market instead for letting keys rise to a more accurate aftermarket price.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Posting this because I think it's bull that people blame "those guys on Outpost" or BP.TF for the key rises. If you want to be angry, be angry at Steam Market instead for letting keys rise to a more accurate aftermarket price.

Well, its not solely the market, although it definitely played a crucial part in it. Market cash isn't useful except for buying games, so it doesnt have the same value as paypal (i.e. you can't cash out wiht market funds). So the market would be an intermediary cash transaction system, while paypal is the end-cash system. 

 

But buyers did have a part to play in keys increasing. They were willing to pay what the sellers asked knowing that tomorrow they could ask for a scrap more (speculation at its finest). So as long as buyers are willing to pay what sellers ask prices will continue to rise. 

[Space Jesus]

That's a valid point about not being able to convert steam funds to cash, but at the same time it demonstrated to paypal sellers that they could charge quite a bit more because they were at artifically low prices to begin with. Any price under store price is a deal, and even factoring in healthy competition for pricing, there's no way it should have dropped or been set that low unless another factor like risk was involved.

 

The speculation going on, is closer to a correction though. There's only so far you can go with keys, since they have a real world ceiling attached. Refined has no monetary value up front, no ceiling and no floor. More likely speculation would be buying keys because you think Ref will deflate even further/more ref per key. People may be profitting on keys right now, but keys DID have to go up or else you're giving up huge margins of profit to people for no reason. When keys were only 5 ref, and ref was roughly 30/33 cents, you could make money reselling them on the spot. Not even for hoarding purposes to wait and try to get more, but the fact that keys have been consistently mispriced on the low side, as they have been rising, doesn't really lead to the argument that speculators are the trouble here.

 

Speculators basing it off real money prices will hit a wall. We're not far off from it, accounting for some breathing room between 2.10 and store price. Speculators basing it off ref prices however may be a real concern, since there's nothing concrete attached to Ref. If a guy wants 10 ref for a key, because he thinks Ref is worth 20 cents or less, that's the kind of trading and gambling that would be an issue. If Ref prices get volatile, or drop significantly even more, people will think this "current" inflation is a joke compared to what we could encounter.

[Threeblade]

Here's my major problem with the latest key price

 

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

And the vast majority of people who downvote, downvoted not because the proof was bad but because they don't want to accept that keys are rising. 

[Underscore]

I don't even care anymore, I just want to eat popcorn when 2013 Halloween comes around.

[ocu.TF ♥ TWP]

Can the moderators please explain what is going on with the recent Key suggestions? One was DECLINED with 62% positive votes, and the other one was APPROVED with %42 positive.

 

If you are completely disregarding people's opinions, why don't you just remove the voting system then?

 

What makes you think you (the moderator) know better than 5000 people that voted? Do you have some kind of expertise in a related field?

[Woifi The Viking]

Can the moderators please explain what is going on with the recent Key suggestions? One was DECLINED with 62% positive votes, and the other one was APPROVED with %42 positive.

 

If you are completely disregarding people's opinions, why don't you just remove the voting system then?

 

What makes you think you (the moderator) know better than 5000 people that voted? Do you have some kind of expertise in a related field?

When moderators act against voters there is almost always an explanation on the suggestion itself. Just like in this case.

[ocu.TF ♥ TWP]

The explanation does not answer my questions at all. In the end, you decided to go against the voters, and I am questioning why you are not removing the voting system altogether.
I am also asking what makes you think you have the correct judgement.

I am not saying either suggestion was right or wrong or anything. I am just questioning the way things work.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

The explanation does not answer my questions at all. In the end, you decided to go against the voters, and I am questioning why you are not removing the voting system altogether.

I am also asking what makes you think you have the correct judgement.

 

I am not saying either suggestion was right or wrong or anything. I am just questioning the way things work.

Because votes do play a part. Yes, they can be overridden, but ONLY when there is sufficient proof proving/disproving the suggestion. The majority of the time if the votes are positive then the suggestion is right, but there are exceptions that occur. They occur because 1) The suggester picked proof that supported the suggestion even though there was plenty that pointed the other way. 2) The suggester just put up a bunch of links and made it look good even though the links weren't valid. 3) The voters vote based on what they want to happen. 

 

Well, when you see a bunch of links that are all sold for above the suggested range its pretty obvious the suggested range is too low--so even if it had a positive vote there is still plenty of proof showing that the suggestion is wrong. Its not as much of a judgement call but rather that the mods actually look through all the links whereas most voters do not. 

[ocu.TF ♥ TWP]

Because votes do play a part. Yes, they can be overridden, but ONLY when there is sufficient proof proving/disproving the suggestion. The majority of the time if the votes are positive then the suggestion is right, but there are exceptions that occur. They occur because 1) The suggester picked proof that supported the suggestion even though there was plenty that pointed the other way. 2) The suggester just put up a bunch of links and made it look good even though the links weren't valid. 3) The voters vote based on what they want to happen. 

 

Well, when you see a bunch of links that are all sold for above the suggested range its pretty obvious the suggested range is too low--so even if it had a positive vote there is still plenty of proof showing that the suggestion is wrong. Its not as much of a judgement call but rather that the mods actually look through all the links whereas most voters do not. 

 

There are so many things I disagree in your reply, I cannot even decide where to begin.

 

Let me ask this question again: What is the purpose of voting, if the results are misinterpreted / ignored?

 

Where is this "sufficient proof" for the suggestions? All I see are an increasing number of links from tf2outpost. I am pretty sure (despite my efforts) noone is considering why the prices keep increasing in detail. Blindly looking at a number of trades is not sufficient proof for me.

 

1) Suggesters always pick proof that support the suggestion. Why would they pick the stuff that doesn't support it? (Unless they can dis-prove the counter-proof themselves, or they are a minority, which means they're still supporting their suggestion)

2) This thing happened with 2 previous suggestions, I pointed out many of the links were invalid at the time of the suggestion (the suggester put the trades that weren't completed at the time of the suggestion), YET the mods still approved that one.

3) Of course voters vote based on what they want to happen. Where in the world will you see the opposite situation happening?

 

Again, I am not saying either suggestion was right or wrong, I'm criticizing the way moderators are handling this.

Regardless, I'm expecting a reply from the moderators themselves, not from another voter.

 

[ocu.TF ♥ TWP]

To Moderators: So far, most of the suggestions have passed with ratios just above 50% (which in my opinion shouldn't have passed). Considering most of the (surviving) suggestions cause a change in the price before they are even accepted (thanks to them appearing in the searchbox), they shouldn't have been accepted at all. And then comes a suggestion with thousands of voters, that gets a 60% of the votes, and gets declined. Another suggestion pops up, gets 40%, again with thousands of voters, and gets accepted. This makes no sense to me. If you are going to casually affect the prices like this, just get rid of this suggestion/voting system and be done with it.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Let me ask this question again: What is the purpose of voting, if the results are misinterpreted / ignored?

>The votes usually do agree with the proof. Also, votes encourage you to actively participate, which hopefully will lead to the voter making suggesting rather than just voting on them. Also, when you vote correctly you get rewarded by 1) points (which don't mean anything) 2) more importantly, a spot in the raffle depending on how much you vote.  

 

Where is this "sufficient proof" for the suggestions? All I see are an increasing number of links from tf2outpost. I am pretty sure (despite my efforts) noone is considering why the prices keep increasing in detail.

>Most items are falling....the only items that are increasing are old stranges (i.e. ones from crates which don't drop anymore and have a high demand), original effects as they're scarce (and generally more liked) in comparison to the newer effects, and finally keys. A mod won't just accept/deny a suggestion against the voters unless there is plenty of proof behind doing so (i.e. the suggester carefully picked his links and ignored every link that didn't support his suggestion).

 

Blindly looking at a number of trades is not sufficient proof for me.

>Which is why mods have final say, as they actually look into the trade rather than just seeing a link and voting link most voters. 

 

1) Suggesters always pick proof that support the suggestion. Why would they pick the stuff that doesn't support it? (Unless they can dis-prove the counter-proof themselves, or they are a minority, which means they're still supporting their suggestion)

>My point there are suggesters who carefully pick proof that supports there suggestion even when there are plenty of trades that completely disprove it. Exactly my point, suggesters often ignore valid proof because it doesn't support the range they're suggestion. Well, you need to ask yourself something....why is the proof he provided anymore valid then the proof he ignored? Which is why mods have final say as they can see what proof he ignored whereas voters will just look at the proof he provided. 

 

2) This thing happened with 2 previous suggestions, I pointed out many of the links were invalid at the time of the suggestion (the suggester put the trades that weren't completed at the time of the suggestion), YET the mods still approved that one.

>And what was the mods reasoning behind doing so? There clearly was proof supporting the suggestion. 

 

3) Of course voters vote based on what they want to happen. Where in the world will you see the opposite situation happening?

>Which is why votes shouldn't have final say. If votes had final say, keys would be listed at 2 Ref right now. What would that accomplish? Sellers would still be driving prices up, buyers would still be paying the higher prices. The only ones who that would affect would be the new trader who doesn't know any better and sells keys for 2 Ref. 

 

Again, I am not saying either suggestion was right or wrong, I'm criticizing the way moderators are handling this.

Regardless, I'm expecting a reply from the moderators themselves, not from another voter.

>​They're going to tell you the same things i've already told you  

 

To Moderators: So far, most of the suggestions have passed with ratios just above 50% (which in my opinion shouldn't have passed). Considering most of the (surviving) suggestions cause a change in the price before they are even accepted (thanks to them appearing in the searchbox), they shouldn't have been accepted at all. And then comes a suggestion with thousands of voters, that gets a 60% of the votes, and gets declined. Another suggestion pops up, gets 40%, again with thousands of voters, and gets accepted. This makes no sense to me. If you are going to casually affect the prices like this, just get rid of this suggestion/voting system and be done with it.

>Why don't you look at the comments the mods made in the suggestion, as they will usually give a reason why they went against the voters. And why should't suggestions that are just above 50% pass? (Should the president not win the election if he only won by 1%?)

[ocu.TF ♥ TWP]

^ I have made it clear, a few times, that I am directing my questions to the moderators, I was even kind enough to give you an answer, yet you hastily came up with a new (and irrelevant) post. You may have all the time in the world to reply awkwardly to everything I say, but sadly, I do not.

 

I don't really want to spend any time arguing with you or anyone else. I want the moderators' opinions, reasoning and motivations on this.

[polar]

^ I have made it clear, a few times, that I am directing my questions to the moderators, I was even kind enough to give you an answer, yet you hastily came up with a new (and irrelevant) post. You may have all the time in the world to reply awkwardly to everything I say, but sadly, I do not.

 

I don't really want to spend any time arguing with you or anyone else. I want the moderators' opinions, reasoning and motivations on this.

 

The voting system works well as part of a system of checks and balances for all suggestions except for currency suggestions, and especially key suggestions. We as moderators have struggled with key suggestions because with something like keys, enough proof can be gathered to suggest any kind of range (i.e. from 6-6.44 currently). How does one make an objective decision about it? We have a thread in the moderators forum where we all look at the proof and read all the comments in the key suggestion. We look at proof independently as well on the market and then we make a collective decision. Mind you, there is often disagreement among the mods as there was in this suggestion. But we go with the majority vote and leave our explanation in the suggestion. 

 

As for the issue of voting, this is something we have raised among ourselves. We are considering alternatives (such as importing prices straight from tf2f). But until the new, massive update comes out for bp.tf, pretty much any major change like this is on hold. Your points are valid. And we have already considered the issues you raise. Please keep in mind that people have alternative sources to determine key prices (trade.tf, tf2finance). It's very possible that we will ultimately keep our system as is. If people trust our judgment on other suggestions, I would hope they can trust our judgment and understand our rationale provided every time we go against the popular vote (which we always do).

[F CHARLIE]

Can the moderators please explain what is going on with the recent Key suggestions? One was DECLINED with 62% positive votes, and the other one was APPROVED with %42 positive.

 

If you are completely disregarding people's opinions, why don't you just remove the voting system then?

 

What makes you think you (the moderator) know better than 5000 people that voted? Do you have some kind of expertise in a related field?

 

You have no idea how many times this exact question has been answered before. Did you not do a search of the forums to find related discusions before asking this. Why do people care about the key trade price going up anyway? Who the heck is buying keys with ref anymore? I sell crap on steam market and get them from there or the 5.33 S Dead Ringer flip.

[Woifi The Viking]

>​They're going to tell you the same things i've already told you

I agree with that.