The key price thread

[♠Derpeh♤]

You have no idea how many times this exact question has been answered before. Did you not do a search of the forums to find related discusions before asking this. Why do people care about the key trade price going up anyway? Who the heck is buying keys with ref anymore? I sell crap on steam market and get them from there or the 5.33 S Dead Ringer flip.

Or just buy gift wraps off the market for aheck lot cheaper and sell for 1 key

 

i quite agree with this

[F CHARLIE]

Or just buy gift wraps off the market for aheck lot cheaper and sell for 1 key

 

i quite agree with this

 

It goes the other way too. The haunted crones was going for more on steam market than trade.

[OverduePixels]

Well, first of all hello to all. Hope you all are doing pretty well.

 

Now my intake.

 

I agree with whatever base64 have said. I just do not get the economy anymore. At the current moment, I can see that both key and buds are rising in price which does not makes sense at all. Buds should be going down if key is going up in price. If key price was about to go down then I would understand the rise behind buds price. It seems like TF2 is reaching the point where many experienced trader will just stop buying the main economy currency (Keys and Buds) and buy it off from Steam Market or Mann Co.Store or Via Paypal instead. While new and mediocre players will be left with no choice but watch the Tf2 economy sliding downwards. 

 

What I see is how both of the currency is rising for no reason whatsoever (Most of the time).

 

I see that when a key is priced 6.11-6.22 ref many players try to make profit by trying to sell it at 6.33 where they buy it at 6.22 ref. Yes, I understand that players are trying to make profit but this does not mean that we should rise the price up. Players will always try to make profit. If this cycle continues we will be at a point where keys will be worth 10-10.11 and then another few players will try to sell it off for 10.22-10.33 and then someone will make a suggestion to increase the price, suggestion gets accepted and the price will continue to rise on and on. This goes same for the buds.

 

My main point here is that people will charge out of the price range but it does not necessarily mean it is time to rise the price up. Key price is going up way too fast. Every week it is rising by 0.11-0.22 scrap. Basic economy does not work this way.

 

Some wise player once said to me "One day Tf2 economy will crash due to the price increasing rapidly and many players will walk out and never look back"

 

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Buds should be going down if key is going up in price.

>Why is that? Says who? 

If key price was about to go down then I would understand the rise behind buds price. It seems like TF2 is reaching the point where many experienced trader will just stop buying the main economy currency (Keys and Buds) and buy it off from Steam Market or Mann Co.Store or Via Paypal instead.

>Nothing new, people have been buying from the black market via pp for years now. 

While new and mediocre players will be left with no choice but watch the Tf2 economy sliding downwards. 

>Explain how the economy is going downward.....

 

What I see is how both of the currency is rising for no reason whatsoever (Most of the time).

>Demand and/or speculation. Buds decreased before halloween as people wanted keys to unbox. Now Halloweens over and buds are on the rise again (at least until xmas unbox hype). Also, keys are decreasing right now, not increasing. During Halloween keys were $2~, now they're around $1.90. 

 

I see that when a key is priced 6.11-6.22 ref many players try to make profit by trying to sell it at 6.33 where they buy it at 6.22 ref. Yes, I understand that players are trying to make profit but this does not mean that we should rise the price up. Players will always try to make profit. If this cycle continues we will be at a point where keys will be worth 10-10.11 and then another few players will try to sell it off for 10.22-10.33 and then someone will make a suggestion to increase the price, suggestion gets accepted and the price will continue to rise on and on. This goes same for the buds.

>First off, let keys be 10 Ref---it doesn't matter. Secondly keys can't rise indefinitely as they're dependent on Ref. So there will always be a key-ref max ratio based on the price of Ref. Except buds have risen and fallen multiple times each year and then settled at a different price. In summer of 2012 buds peaked at around 30 Keys and then began to come down until Halloween 2012 when they reached around 16 keys, then they eventually rose back up to 25, then down to 23, then down to 16 where they are now. Buds have been fluctuating since they first came out. 

 

My main point here is that people will charge out of the price range but it does not necessarily mean it is time to rise the price up. Key price is going up way too fast. Every week it is rising by 0.11-0.22 scrap. Basic economy does not work this way.

>If people are willing to pay more then the suggested price, so be it. Look at any item in the game, if people could just ask for more, and then get more, then everyone would constantly be raising prices (but thats not happening). By your logic, if i asked for 3 Ref for a fast learner, everyone should ask for 3 ref, and we'd all get 3 Ref. Something you need to understand about economics is the supply and demand curve. The price will be whatever price when BOTH the supply and demand curve cross. The reason why fast learners dropped from 6~ Ref was because they were released in a crate, which resulted in a large amount of Fast learners entering the market with a limited number of buyers to buy them up. So as supply increases and demand stays the same the price MUST decrease. 

[Bomsusik]

Hello People, How ya'll doing? I'm a new guy on the forums and I found this topic very interesting and very popular on TF2 so why not start on it?

Panahar is right,
since people started to make profit scrap by scrap using keys they started to rise on backpack.tf since it's community made (Thanks to the price suggesting people).
More buyers - Higher Price, and since keys are in a catastrophically big demand, people keep buying them for a 1 scrap higher price and so the keys keep rising.

My point is, if people will stop buying keys for those prices and start buying them for a lower price of six refined and lower for example, the keys price will start falling, or at least halt...


 

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

since people started to make profit scrap by scrap using keys they started to rise on backpack.tf since it's community made (Thanks to the price suggesting people).

More buyers - Higher Price, and since keys are in a catastrophically big demand, people keep buying them for a 1 scrap higher price and so the keys keep rising.

 

My point is, if people will stop buying keys for those prices and start buying them for a lower price of six refined and lower for example, the keys price will start falling, or at least halt...

Not exactly. People have been flipping keys for profit since keys first came into the game. The problem is buyers are willing to pay whatever sellers ask, and bptf not listing a price/keeping an old price won't change that. Its been done before, when keys were around 3 ref, bptf held off on updating them for a little bit, and as a result they still rose. Not updating them doesn't stop them from increasing. As long as people are still willing to pay what sellers are asking they will continue to rise. Again, right now the demand/supply curve for keys do not intersect. The moment they do, keys will stop increasing no matter what sellers ask for or what bptf says.

 

And if everyone stops buying gas, gas too well stop increasing. 

[Woifi The Viking]

Not exactly. People have been flipping keys for profit since keys first came into the game. The problem is buyers are willing to pay whatever sellers ask, and bptf not listing a price/keeping an old price won't change that. Its been done before, when keys were around 3 ref, bptf held off on updating them for a little bit, and as a result they still rose. Not updating them doesn't stop them from increasing. As long as people are still willing to pay what sellers are asking they will continue to rise. Again, right now the demand/supply curve for keys do not intersect. The moment they do, keys will stop increasing no matter what sellers ask for or what bptf says.

 

And if everyone stops buying gas, gas too well stop increasing. 

My eyes.

 

 

Not exactly. People have been flipping keys for profit since keys first came into the game. The problem is buyers are willing to pay whatever sellers ask, and bptf not listing a price/keeping an old price won't change that. Its been done before, when keys were around 3 ref, bptf held off on updating them for a little bit, and as a result they still rose. Not updating them doesn't stop them from increasing. As long as people are still willing to pay what sellers are asking they will continue to rise. Again, right now the demand/supply curve for keys do not intersect. The moment they do, keys will stop increasing no matter what sellers ask for or what bptf says.

 

And if everyone stops buying gas, gas too well stop increasing. 

Better.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

My eyes.

 

 

Better.

i like Times :3 

[Woifi The Viking]

i like Times :3 

Then at least make the Size bigger.

[Heated Bread]

It's become clear to me that a large portion of people voting on prices for items such as keys and earbuds either do not understand what the voting system is for or flat out refuse to vote in a way that conforms with the intent of the voting system.

 

Too often have I heard people say something along the lines of "X suggestion passed with only Y number of upvotes!  So what are the votes there for?  It's all a scam!", which is a ridiculous thing to say.

 

The votes are NOT there for you to vote on what you WANT the price of an item to be.  It's there as feedback as to whether you think a price suggestion accurately reflects the market or not.  This is one part of a process which exists to help the moderators in determining whether or not to accept a suggestion.

 

If you are voting or creating suggestions based on what you want an item to be priced at rather than what you see as being the current fair market value based on the available information at the time, you are in fact attempting to be a price manipulator, which is exaclty what people who wish to lower the key prices try to accuse the backpack.tf staff of.  Essentially, you're making yourself out to be a major hypocrite - or at the very least, an unthinking and ignorant person.

 

I just wanted to say that.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

It's become clear to me that a large portion of people voting on prices for items such as keys and earbuds either do not understand what the voting system is for or flat out refuse to vote in a way that conforms with the intent of the voting system.

 

Too often have I heard people say something along the lines of "X suggestion passed with only Y number of upvotes!  So what are the votes there for?  It's all a scam!", which is a ridiculous thing to say.

 

The votes are NOT there for you to vote on what you WANT the price of an item to be.  It's there as feedback as to whether you think a price suggestion accurately reflects the market or not.  This is one part of a process which exists to help the moderators in determining whether or not to accept a suggestion.

 

If you are voting or creating suggestions based on what you want an item to be priced at rather than what you see as being the current fair market value based on the available information at the time, you are in fact attempting to be a price manipulator, which is exaclty what people who wish to lower the key prices try to accuse the backpack.tf staff of.  Essentially, you're making yourself out to be a major hypocrite - or at the very least, an unthinking and ignorant person.

 

I just wanted to say that.

GL convincing others of that. Most of us have just given up at this point. 

[Underscore]

lol

[Slocumruls]

Demand for metal is pretty much crap. Demand for keys is High (especially around event unboxing time and when people were selling off for steam cash during sales). 

 

Simple economics dictates the Price of keys in ref should continue to rise. It has nothing to do with manipulation by anybody except for Valve itself (ie. not many nice craftable things and lots of crates).

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

hmmm i wonder.....

 

a craftable crate. I.e. the crate wouldn't drop normally, the only way to obtain it would be to craft some metal together (i.e. 4 Ref = 1 Crate, or whatever)....then metal and keys would both have unboxing power. 

[RageofFir]

Alright hypothetically, suppose the key does crash, what happens? Does everything rise in price now? Is that really such a bad thing? Yeah it end the days where you can get anything you want at a low price, but nice things, turn to be well nice.

 

I just think after the hyper inflation is over, things won't really be that bad.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Alright hypothetically, suppose the key does crash, what happens? Does everything rise in price now? Is that really such a bad thing? Yeah it end the days where you can get anything you want at a low price, but nice things, turn to be well nice.

 

I just think after the hyper inflation is over, things won't really be that bad.

If keys crash then that would pretty much be the end of trading. If keys crash then:

1. unusuals crash since unboxing becomes cheaper
2. which will lead to virtually all profit traders leaving
3. which will lead to a lack of items/money entering the economy 
4. which will ultimately lead to TF3

[Slocumruls]

Likely a stabilization will occur first before the game loses enough players to stop fueling the trading economy. At that point metal cash value will be what goes first and therefor keys will be worth incredible amounts of metal because keys actually have a cash basis on steam. Then the cash value of keys on the market and paypal will fall (unless they can be used in some other game like TF3). There is no reason for keys to lose metal value unless Valve introduces a reason for people to CRAFT.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

There is no reason for keys to lose metal value unless Valve introduces a reason for people to CRAFT.

Crate crafting please. 

[RageofFir]

If keys crash then that would pretty much be the end of trading. If keys crash then:

 

• unusuals crash since unboxing becomes cheaper
• which will lead to virtually all profit traders leaving
• which will lead to a lack of items/money entering the economy 
• which will ultimately lead to TF3

Hold on, because PROFIT traders leave it will crash the market? What are they going to do? Hoard all of the keys? Oh wait they already do that pages and pages of them. And yes there is still a drop system implemented so items are staying.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Hold on, because PROFIT traders leave it will crash the market?

 

What are they going to do? Hoard all of the keys? Oh wait they already do that pages and pages of them. And yes there is still a drop system implemented so items are staying.

iirc the TF2 economy is valued at around $55 Million; and of the top few hundred backpacks listed on bptf, the vast majority of them--are profit traders. So, if theres no more room for profit then people will no longer be dumping hundreds of dollars on hats. That'll cause a massive increase in sellers with virtually no buyers, which will cause the economy to crash.

 

Hoarding keys isn't doing anything. The demand for keys is greater than the supply--hence why keys keep selling for more and more. As soon as the demand is equal to the supply the price will stabilize. 

 

Yes, there may still be a drop system, but who's going to be creating all the new items to be added? Not to mention if keys get ridiculously cheap then all hats that can be uncrated or crafted would become worth even less, BECAUSE: Far more crates will be unboxed resulting in many more regular hats entering the community (which will cause them to drop), and once they drop to craft hat levels people will craft those into other hats which will ultimately be doomed to become craft hats.

[RageofFir]

Actually hoarding does do something, it either increases the value of unusual items (by not unboxing) or decreasing the value of other items (by not buying other peoples stuff) besides the point though. (EDIT: oh crap I forgot about creating new items as well whoops)

 

Lets go in reverse. Where does the metal go to then? are people just going to make it sit in their own backpacks waiting for the day it becomes valuable and sell it on paypal? I don't think so, I think they are going to craft it to try to get a good item. 

 

As for the hats, I bet money will shift around, hey maybe those odd leveled vintages will become valuable again,(no really try to buy a 64 fan)

[♠Derpeh♤]

Actually hoarding does do something, it either increases the value of unusual items (by not unboxing) or decreasing the value of other items (by not buying other peoples stuff) besides the point though. (EDIT: oh crap I forgot about creating new items as well whoops)

 

Lets go in reverse. Where does the metal go to then? are people just going to make it sit in their own backpacks waiting for the day it becomes valuable and sell it on paypal? I don't think so, I think they are going to craft it to try to get a good item. 

 

As for the hats, I bet money will shift around, hey maybe those odd leveled vintages will become valuable again,(no really try to buy a 64 fan)

Hoarding by players decrease the supply in essence the same demand chasing fewer good making the price go up. Hoarding unusuals isnt a very good way to profit as there is always the max price others would pay in this case most likely either a better effect or a different hat.

 

Atm metal doesnt do anything really, it's used to buy keys. Recently there have been the collectors which created short term demand for metal however due to valve's decision to make the kits very rare it doesnt change anything. Getting rid of the dirty hats and their continuous wave of new items is probably what killed metal, no one crafts anymore and every event people use their key to mostly get a hat(metal) creating an even smaller amount of keys and influx of metal. I wont get into the carders and such.

[RageofFir]

Hoarding, also decreases the demand (a wee bit) If you buy something, the demand is finished, deed is done. Between two people the trade is decent,(On with it).

 

Metal is weird, Its now a gambling system, yes you can use your three ref to unlikely craft some turners but ultimately likely to get a Dr. Whoa OR you can buy a name tag with it (or three other hats nowadays). I guess people are really not risky. Causing dislike to metal. And at the end of the week you get 2.5 scrap. Perhaps people have gotten tired of the drop system. I haven't, but the people who can play with buds like candy, yeah I bet they really don't care about it.

[F CHARLIE]

Just for you key suggestion guys.

I decided to do a test and put up a key sale for 6.44

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16170456

Sold three in one day.

http://puu.sh/5CCuy.jpg

Closing trade as that is not my thing.

 

Decided I will make one for 6.55

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16177071

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Just for you key suggestion guys.

I decided to do a test and put up a key sale for 6.44

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16170456

Sold three in one day.

http://puu.sh/5CCuy.jpg

Closing trade as that is not my thing.

I've been buying at 6.44 for the past few days and so far i've only been able to get one (with the exception of the 10 or so i've gotten from scrap.tf)