The key price thread

[Distinctively Vincent]

How much people are "attracted" to buy an item is not dictated merely by key prices- if the key prices go up this DOES NOT MEAN that the price of a hat or weapon goes up aswell: it is not suddenly a more sought after item merely because the key price went up. 

 

Some items did. Others didn't.

 

Examples being the Tosslecap, Anger, and the Marxman.  Used to be in keys, as keys went up and they started failing to sell for a key, they got converted into refined prices. Others that continued selling at the key price, remained in keys. All in all, I don't think there's a problem here. Those that get outpaced by the rise of keys get caught and converted. The rest are indeed similarly climbing relative to refined, they don't need to be converted yet.

[F CHARLIE]

Under the same theory, yes they all do.

[BQE]

Maybe bp.tf should stop displaying the price of keys for a while, as an experiment.

[Joshua Cain]

Some items did. Others didn't.

 

Examples being the Tosslecap, Anger, and the Marxman.  Used to be in keys, as keys went up and they started failing to sell for a key, they got converted into refined prices. Others that continued selling at the key price, remained in keys. All in all, I don't think there's a problem here. Those that get outpaced by the rise of keys get caught and converted. The rest are indeed similarly climbing relative to refined, they don't need to be converted yet.

 

You don't see a problem with what you just said.  On one hand you state that some mid value items had to be converted to ref for no other reason than that their natural price was around 1 - 3 keys before the key trade price began.  On the other hand you say that higher priced items can rise with the key for no reason other than that they were above that 1 - 3 key threshhold.  If keys reach 12 ref in value, which is current ref trade price for Ebeneezer, than that hat will have to convert to ref but by that time it will convert to 30 some ref.  Your statement is absurd. 

 

Second example.  Before the trade price of keys increased a bud could, in theory, be purchased for around 64 ref.  Today you would need around 120 ref to accomplish this.  In order to argue that this is acceptable then you would have to prove that there is around 100% more refined in the market today than last October/November.  There is not one of you that can make that argument. 

 

I recognize a common theory that much ref is held in packs of traders who have stoped trading or just have it there....for no reason....and don't use it and that this could, effectively shrink the actually traded volume of ref so as to produce a growth number that could account for ref loosing trade vaalue.  Because it is also the same for keys, bills, buds so that statement is bogus.

[F CHARLIE]

I see that a new key price suggestion has been introduced for....the exact amount I suggested last night and with about the same proof.  Mine got closed because it was too soon (12 hours ago).  If this doesn'tg get accapted I am certain long's will as he is about to post one after the breaking bad episode is over.  He will have slightly more proof the core of which will be a handfull of truly valid ones.

 

And yes, I am not entirely gone yet.  A little frustration has to be worked out.

[Distinctively Vincent]

On one hand you state that some mid value items had to be converted to ref for no other reason than that their natural price was around 1 - 3 keys before the key trade price began.

 

No, they had to be converted to ref because, at some point while key->refined rose, people became unsuccessful at trading that item for a key and more were trading for a refined price that was less than a key. This included a number of items above 1-3 keys.

 

 

On the other hand you say that higher priced items can rise with the key for no reason other than that they were above that 1 - 3 key threshhold.

 

No, they rise with the key because people continue paying the same amount in keys while key->refined raises. This included some items in the 1-3 key range.

 

 

If keys reach 12 ref in value, which is current ref trade price for Ebeneezer, than that hat will have to convert to ref but by that time it will convert to 30 some ref.  Your statement is absurd. 

 

Only at the point where the Ebenezer is no longer trading reliably for keys.

 

The market does what the market does, and the price guide follows that. There's no hard price value that dictates when a price starts being written in refined instead of keys, or vice versa for that matter. It's simply when the market is trading more for one currency on that item than another.

 

 

In order to argue that this is acceptable then you would have to prove that there is around 100% more refined in the market today than last October/November. 

 

That is not how prices work. The only thing that needs to be proven is that people are currently trading more refined for buds than they were in October/November. The reasons why, while interesting to speculate, are ultimately irrelevent. For the record, it's also far more complicated than simply 'how much of each'. It's not an argument I care to get into, but I'd recommend base64's article on reasons for key increase, found on the key page of tf2finance.

[Chief D]

It's a cycle caused by people making profit with keys (selling 1 or more scraps above the backpack.tf price). 

 

The thing that backpack.tf could do against the key price dictating the market is changing the price of every single item listed in a key price to refined metal. 

 

Having a single base currency would erase the deviation of key prices from the equation. 

 

How much people are "attracted" to buy an item is not dictated merely by key prices- if the key prices go up this DOES NOT MEAN that the price of a hat or weapon goes up aswell: it is not suddenly a more sought after item merely because the key price went up. 

 

 

Any idea here regarding re-listing every single price on backpack.tf to refined metal? (seeing as that the price of refined metal doesn't change as much as the price of keys).

Items that are traded for keys, like SF items, bills, etc. Will have their pries increased every time key prices go up. Because people will STILL trade them for keys.

[F CHARLIE]

Items that are traded for keys, like SF items, bills, etc. Will have their pries increased every time key prices go up. Because people will STILL trade them for keys.

 

U are missing something.  High price items are typically only traded amongst high end traders who do not deal with the ramifications of the key trade price increase.  They do benefit from this when they want to acquire low/mid tier items while the low/mid tier guys (all of you were once that guy) have a harder time moving into upper tier items.  Of course the established trader doesn't think its a problem.  The higher its price the more insulated they are from the event.

[☣Long218☢]

CAN WE JUST CHANGE THE KEY PRICE TO $ ALREADY ?

THIS IS RIDICULOUS BECAUSE IT IS HARD FOR BOTH SUGGESTORS AND VOTERS WHEN IT COMES TO KEY SUGGESTION.

[Chief D]

U are missing something.  High price items are typically only traded amongst high end traders who do not deal with the ramifications of the key trade price increase.  They do benefit from this when they want to acquire low/mid tier items while the low/mid tier guys (all of you were once that guy) have a harder time moving into upper tier items.  Of course the established trader doesn't think its a problem.  The higher its price the more insulated they are from the event.

Still, if an item is worth 1 key and even though the price is fixed at 4.33 ref and keys keep going up, if people still trade it for a key then the price will have to be updated again, and again, and again. Changing currencies to refined metal would only work for items traded for ref regularly. 

[F CHARLIE]

CAN WE JUST CHANGE THE KEY PRICE TO $ ALREADY ?

THIS IS RIDICULOUS BECAUSE IT IS HARD FOR BOTH SUGGESTORS AND VOTERS WHEN IT COMES TO KEY SUGGESTION.

 

I agree with Long218.  The key should no longer be used in common trading or have a trading price.  It should only be quoted in $ just like refined.  Same should go for Bills and Buds.  Also, proof can only come $ sales not anything/anywhere else.  Good job Long218, I support you.

[Pyrocide]

So you support buying carded keys and statements like this?

 

[F CHARLIE]

So you support buying carded keys and statements like this?

 

 

I support the quote of his I placed in my statement and what I said in connection to it.  Mainly what I said, because I don't think he meant what I said.  I want keys removed from trading all together as in I WISH VALVE WOULD MAKE ALL KEYS UN-TRADABLE and allow them to be sold in steam market.

[Pyrocide]

lol, interesting.

[F CHARLIE]

The key trade price increase is about that anyway.  Its meant to drive buyers to the secondary market for keys so that Long and I assume others can cash in.  If anyone is "carding" keys it will be easier to perma band them as the only way to acquire keys is mann co, not trading, if all keys were made un-tradable.

[BQE]

Would gift wrap then become the new currency?   Can you even wrap keys?  

[F CHARLIE]

U can wrap anything I think. 

 

Would gift wrap then become the new currency?   Can you even wrap keys?  

[jjjon123]

U can wrap anything I think.

cant wrap tools

[Pyrocide]

Don't be a fool jjjjon, wrap your tool.

[Chief D]

I remember keys were untradeable.

 

Also, keep it on topic about problems/solutions and not just wishes.

[There]

Everyone should stop suggesting a rise in the price of keys for a month. I guarantee you that the price of keys will not increase.

[Uranium235]

Everyone should stop suggesting a rise in the price of keys for a month. I guarantee you that the price of keys will not increase.

Too bad you only guarantee. Would you also bet your backpack on it?

[BQE]

Fine, solution: backpack.tf stops reporting the price of keys in refined. 

Wish: backpack.tf stops reporting the price of keys in refined. 

[VWRasta The Conqueror]

maybe its the jews? >_>

[There]

Too bad you only guarantee. Would you also bet your backpack on it?

The thread clearly says, "Discuss", not "harass other members of the forum". If you would like to argue with me, I'd be happy to hear it. 

 

Here's what I think is happening:

 

Listed key prices rises to, for example, 4.22. After a few days, key sellers adjust and sell for 4.33 to make profit. We notice this, raise listed key price to 4.33. And the trend continues. I'm saying, the price that people sell keys for is going to stay over the listed price. The real question is if it's going to keep increasing over 4.33 if the listed price stays at 4.22, and we really can't find out. But it seems that all of the evidence is people successfully selling for one scrap over the listed price. I could go out and find you infinite amounts of trades of people successfully selling strange for one rec over the listed price, but I don't think the value of the item is actually going up... people are just paying for the quick time they get the keys in. That's another factor for the price of an item. People can successfully sell keys for one scrap higher than the listed price because people don't want to open their own trade a wait a while for keys, they want them ASAP, so they spend an extra scrap to get them. They're not just paying for the price of the key. They're also paying for the time it takes to get it. Think about this: how hard is it to find someone selling a strange for the bp.tf listed price on outpost? Pretty hard. It's also hard to find people selling keys for the listed price, but I guarantee you they are if you open your own trade... thus not paying to get your items quickly, but taking them time and just paying for the value of an item.