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The key price thread

  

181 members have voted

  1. 1. Should Keys Go Up Or Down? Would They Help The Economy If They Are Higher?

    • Up / Yes
      59
    • Down / No
      122


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Triforce of Charmanders

are you not?

newcomers are getting discouraged from the game because keys dominate the economy and if you don't have them then basically your inventory is worthless.

trading =/= whole game.

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Chief D

why don't we stop the inflation and put the key price back down to 3 ref, or is that not an option for you manipulative people, people on outpost wouldn't hate this website if they weren't so ridiculous about the prices of things, 4.66 for a key, remember the time when a key was 2.66 ref, yeah that time when low stock traders didn't get fucked over buy the manipulators who jacked up the price of a key to over 3 craft hats each, make backpack fix it at 3 or under or we boycott backpack.tf!

 

 

are you not?

newcomers are getting discouraged from the game because keys dominate the economy and if you don't have them then basically your inventory is worthless.

 

 

I love it how he just likes his own posts. He must have a lot of friends. 

 

Also, threats won't make us take you seriously. If you care about the key situation, I suggest you read the thread and understand what's actually happening.

 

Also read these related threads:

 

http://forums.backpa...-crash-of-2013/

http://forums.backpa...he-key-jump-in/

http://forums.backpa...-in-key-prices/

 

If you don't want to read and you'll only cry about it, then your opinion is worthless to us, as you're just a kid who wants his candy.

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BQE

Interesting thing, using only stats.tf and tf2finance as evidence, key price and # of keys has been pretty much stable for about a week now, hovering between 4.55 and 4.77, and the number of keys between 488k and 490k.  It might not mean anything, but this is the longest period of 'stability' since I started keeping track. Check the graphs tab.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqfwmAoqShs7dEVWellMbTBjWUxJcmJwaVNuLVZBUEE&usp=sharing

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Quasi-DangerZone

do YOU think the key price inflation is a good thing?

you guys do a lot of proving on how it happened but you say nothing on its purpose.

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Chief D

do YOU think the key price inflation is a good thing?

you guys do a lot of proving on how it happened but you say nothing on its purpose.

"on its purpose". What do you mean by that?

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Woodenspoon

Honestly the wordiness of the ops original posts and replies probably keeps people from bothering to even enter this discussion.

 

The problem with his posts is that they aren't based on sound economic principles...but an idea of what is "fair".

 

But that kind of idea gets you no where, its like asking why most people can't afford a mercedes benz, whether you think thats fair is entirely subjective, but based on economic principles, the price of the benz and limited access to it is entirely fair.

 

 

 

 

The idea that idlers are responsible for metal depreciation is a non starter, they aren't numerous enough to matter.   

 

Anyways just think for a moment, idlers want to buy keys, so they are somehow rigging the price upwards, making their farms less effective?  Course the op claimed the idlers aren't price sensitive but that assumes keys always disappear once bought, but they don't, people convert to buds and unusuals, only a fraction are used for mass uncrating.  The rest get recycled back into the market, and the "idlers" and those they pass keys onto need to sell the keys as much as they need to buy them once you think about it.

 

 

I think op is just not understanding the fundamental problem.  Metal is born of free. Its a hand out from valve, based on no market principles at all, no merit, you get paid a communist style hand out for sitting on your arse playing a video game, whereas keys are born only of money.  Its surprising you can buy keys with metal at all.  Op needs to read up on bitcoin.  Or listen to the security now podcast on it. 

  Its explained in detail 45 minutes into the podcast or so..  the measures the bitcoin makers had to take in order to make sure their currency had some rationality to it are impressive, and comparing and contrasting bitcoin with metal shows you exactly why metal is failing to compete with keys.  If metal were like bitcoin, you'd need banks of high end gpu's, perhaps working with groups of people to mine bitcoin at all, because it is that hard to mine bitcoin at the moment, and it will only get harder as the hardware gets faster as the system self balances itself.  If metal were like bitcoin most of you wouldn't be able to find any metal at all, even leaving your boxes on 24/7...

 

Metal has had to compete directly with money aka keys since the market place, and the adjustments are rational because we all know deep down that free hand outs can't compete with money.  Its just wishful thinking by some that make them actually think they are being paid by the gaben to play a video game.  But take a step back and realize just this point and you will see just how absurd it all is.

 

Some people don't seem to realize valve has kept both currencies for good reason. Metal is free, and supports a f2p type user, all regular weapons and most dirty miscs and much more are affordable to these users.  While others who choose to pay get more.   They serve two tiers of customers at the same time.  This comes with artifacts sure, but that is the price of having free drops.  Valve could immediately solve this by making metal a pay only item, no more drops, but the f2p types would seriously freak out.  So they don't, they serve two types of players, and everyone should be happy, except there are some people who don't understand they were never entitled to pay items based on their free hand outs.

 

 

Group would never work.  It would hav to be nearly everyone and key resellers would still buy.  This has to be ridden out unless you can get trading sites to agree to ban anyone who sells above a certain price. Even then the sellers could go to forums.

 

 

No groups trying to rig the system would never work because of just this fact, you can't do that to a market without creating a disaster.  When governments force rationing or price controls they create shortages, because you can't force people to sell things at absurd prices.  Anyways this all assumes you know the right price.  The market spoke and just because you don't like it doesn't mean its wrong. The market rations out a valuable highly sought after resource like keys by raising the price until only the people who really want that item pay for it.  Thats exactly as it should be.   Its foolish to try to fight it.

 

In fact what you are demanding IS price manipulation.  Any attempt to force prices results in destruction.  Whether you like the tf system or not is of relevance on this matter because even a stopped clock is right twice a day. On this one, they happen to be right.  There are fundamental reasons behind key prices rising.  You can't pretend that tf could manipulate something else in the same way, they couldn't raise the price of a phlogistinator every week and expect people to follow the price, because it is fundamentally absurd.  Keys are an item born of money, and the key to stranges and unusuals, highly desirable in tf2 community, everyone gets free metal and everyone wants keys, so whats going to happen, people are going to compete and prices will rise, its not a surprise.

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Woodenspoon

This my friend, is price manipulation. Again, Valve has to do something.

 

Valve has to do nothing.  Valve sells you keys for $2.49 as they have had forever now.  Valve pays you metal every week, you wish to buy an item from their store by paying them back "money" they have paid you?  Seems legit? Lol, no, take a step back from your self interest just for a second.  You really think valve is paying you so you can pay them back for an item from their store? Its a flawed scheme. Let alone asking them to *fix* it so you can do it better.

 

CAN WE JUST CHANGE THE KEY PRICE TO $ ALREADY ?

THIS IS RIDICULOUS BECAUSE IT IS HARD FOR BOTH SUGGESTORS AND VOTERS WHEN IT COMES TO KEY SUGGESTION.

 

Price is already in $. 2.49 as it has always been.  People who wish to buy keys using free hand outs are not paying in $, and thats the real problem.  Everyone wants something for free, and paying metal for a pay item is exactly that.

 

 

I agree with Long218.  The key should no longer be used in common trading or have a trading price.  It should only be quoted in $ just like refined.  Same should go for Bills and Buds.  Also, proof can only come $ sales not anything/anywhere else.  Good job Long218, I support you.

 

Why? Because you don't like it?  These aren't arguments based on any valid economic principles, these are arguments based on "I don't like it".  I'm sorry, just invalid.

 

 

*too long to quote

 

 

 

Wrong based on just this.  Backpack tf tends to actually be on the low side, there are always more buyers than sellers looking for "evidence", thats where the self interest lies.  If anything most of the time tf is too low.  In fact most sales without "evidence" probably are on the high side of tf's prices.

 

But as said many times before, fundamentally the idea of manipulation to this degree doesn't work.  You can't force the price of a frontier justice to double every 2 weeks for months at a time, the fundamentals behind it aren't there.

 

Honestly it doesn't matter if idlers buy up keys or not, and I doubt they do.  Things are as they should be regardless, people compete for keys which are born of money, with a garbage currency which is created by doing nothing.  This competition slowly reveals how worthless metal is over time, its arriving at a truth, it doesn't matter if idlers are around or not, the problem with metal is fundamental to how it works, and as I"ve explained, it doesn't matter because it was created to serve a non paying market as a baseline currency that allows access to the basics of gameplay, whether it gives you access to luxuries is entirely of no concern to anyone, let alone valve.

 

It doesn't matter if tf is a bible or not, there are things it cannot do, as I said, imagine them trying to push a 5 refined axtinguisher, it wouldn't work.  

 

As stated Idlers are buyers and sellers, unless you think they all unbox or burn their keys, the keys flow back into the market like everything else.

 

Keys are not vital.  They are a luxury item, giving special access to luxury items.  Just as money in real life gives you access to a mercedes with the nicest sound system and features like gps navigation long before other people had it.  These are luxuries, not vital at all, again, your argument comes down to your feelings of unfairness, which is not a valid economic argument based on any market principles.

 

 

Your idea to somehow rig/coerce the market to sell at 3ref is exactly the flawed thinking that results in governments breaking their economies.  This is meddling that shows a lack of basic economic understanding.  You can't coerce false prices into a market like that, people simply reject it because it doesn't make sense.  Its like telling apple stock price holders that the new price is 50% lower than the current market price because you feel its unfair.  No one would follow your suggestion, they would simply rebel against such blatant attempts at manipulation and allow the market to function as it did before, based on market signals and performance, not on some misguided idea of fairness by certain people.  The market works exactly as it should, the price of oil is allowed to rise and this controls consumption, people vote with their money on how bad they need this gas, and the system works.  Countries in times of crisis who tried limiting prices, only created mass shortages, lines and desperation as people fought over a scarce good with a false price.  This is what you intend when you demand such things.

 

I guess you could pretend that tf is inflating the price of keys beyond market value, but that assumes a whole lot and there is no evidence or economic reason to believe this is true.  People in tf2 are given free "metal/money", anyone with common sense knows its better to spend fake money than their real money first, so there is always going to be huge competition to spend their free money to get paid items for free.  The only conspiracy theory type ideas of tf pumping the prices works is if you believe the price of keys will crash all of sudden, in that case, sell your keys now, soon it will be 2 ref according to such a theory...  why keys would crash, can't be explained at all though, so the idea that tf is pumping the price beyond what the market accepts as true is just without evidence.

 

If you guys truly believe tf is driving keys above their true market value, then its really time to put your money where your mouth is.  You should sell all your keys now, and if you are right, keys crash, you profit greatly.  But we all know you guys won't do this.  Keys will rise and eventually stabalize, and anyone foolish enough to have sold their keys now en masse will be filled with regret.

 

 

 

"I disagree. How is a player supposed to attain Buds, Festive weapons, etc that are all items from long since expired promotions? They have to trade. No, these items are not required in order to play the game, however they make up a part of the game's experience, and thus should be accessible by all players, not just the rich. Again, why we have to ensure a fair economy."

 

This quote from you kind of gets to the core of why you are wrong, and why all your typing is for nothing.  Its like saying all types of cars part of a driving experience, thus for an economy to be fair all people should be able to afford a mercedes benz.  Its like saying the only way an economy is fair is if everyone is rich, sorry no, its very idealistic but its not a good basis for any economic argument, let alone a starting point for discussing how its best to distribute scarce luxury resources to a population.

 

 

 

 

 

 

All of these concepts have been discussed and no one cares or considers any action.  Established traders are miffed that anyone complains about keys or any other perceived issues.  New trader/players are raging because this situation makes it extremely difficult to trade and gain.  I started trading in January and have traded for most item types in the game.  I have raised the value of my pack from its low of $47 (after getting scammed) to a high of around $140 (if I bring my keys back from my buying alt).  The discussions have grown tiring and so I have closed my trades and am packing up for awhile.  Bye

 

Your concepts are flawed and would make any econ 101 prof/teacher laugh.  You seem to be gauging whats fair based on your personal situation, and thats wrong.  Apple stocks what? 400 bucks?  I'm not buying any anytime soon, it doesn't mean its an unfair price though, its just a fact of how the world works. You don't gain anything complaining about it or demanding that the situation be "fixed", because such demands are based on a misunderstanding of basic economics.

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BQE

It seems like you are unaware - traders do not buy keys for $2.49 from the Mann Co Store.  They buy them either on the Community Market for ~$2.25 (whatever they're going for, which is typically less than the Mann Co Store) or through PayPal, for ~$1.35. 

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F  CHARLIE

are you not?

newcomers are getting discouraged from the game because keys dominate the economy and if you don't have them then basically your inventory is worthless.

 

Not necessarily.  Look at the prices of items traded in ref.  In all, the market is cheaper than a month ago.  For both key items and ref items.

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Jokosaa

voters who vote against an accurate suggestion are not ALWAYS trying to manipulate the price, sometimes they just THINK the price is accurate. However, on key suggestions, the firs thing is sadly true most of the time. I hope you can convince it it's not, but if EVERYONE trades keys at 4.11-4.33 and a key suggestion of 4 ref has 5000:100 positive votes and it gets rejected, you can't blame us for it. I'm sure 4500 of the upvoters knew the keys were being trades for 4.11-4.33 and wanted them to be cheaper, so they downvoted it. (See all the LETS BRING KEYS BACK TO 2.66 groups).

 

Even base64 himself is against tf2finance auto-sync, so I won't even go there. I'll only say that if we stop updating the key prices by closing accurate suggestions, we'd be manipulating the key prices.

I'm so new to TF2 trading that you could call me an outsider with an outsider view. I've traded a lot in MMO's, so I got hooked into TF2 instantly. It's been like pealing an onion, with new surprises and different worlds almost every week for couple of months.

 

This might be an outsiders silly question, but if ultimately admins decide if the suggestion is accurate, what is the point of voting?

Shouldnt you just give up on it, and leave the decision to admins all together.

 

I do realise that there are people who want to manipulate, and you need to watch out for that. I've already bumped into fake tradings, even though I've only scratched the surface of TF2 trading. There must be loads of other kinds of attemps.

But I give you another group. I'd call it the bandwagon group, which is created by the raffle. I tried it (until I realised how silly I was...). But the pull was great. The possibility of a free prize made me want to try voting, although I dont have the time for it (baby does that...). So I voted a few times on a vague glimpse and following the lead of the bandwagon. I didn't care about the item, I don't even remember what I voted for. I don't know how many does that, but I'm sure it's worth noticing.

 

In short, even your raffle affects the TF2 economy, as people want to vote and make suggestions to be part of it. That's an outright motive to do something else than just keep accurate prices on the webpage.

 

To me the argument seems to be theory of numbers against practise.

If we have learned anything from the practise of the world (the troubles in EU atm for example), the theory of numbers do not tell the whole picture (if they could, the troubles would be easily solved).

On the other hand we need the theory to at least somewhat understand and react to the problems created by practise.

 

But the TF2 economy is very young. What we might see as problem now, may be something that isn't. In that situation a wrong reaction might create a Real problem (like some of the problems in real world economy now...). It is fascinating to follow this, that I can tell.

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Chief D

Woodenspoon, I fully agree with you. I mever realized ref was supposed to be a f2p currency now. (I'm not saying it's true, just that it seems to fit perfectly). About that post of mine you quoted, I was not asking balve to do anything as this mess doesn't affect me at all. I was just saying that if ref should gain more value, it's on valve's side.

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Chief D

Jokosaa, accurate voting gets you 1 point, which is a reward for your help on keepig the site up do date. Those points help you reach higher belts, badges, suggest/vote on more expensive items and, ultimately, join the raffle. I believe it the beginning it was called voting because Brad wanted it to be fully community based. I guess he realized people would try to manipulate the prices so he asked for admin help. (just saying why I rhink they are caled votes)

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buddhapest

Metal is born of free.

 

i just want to point out that this basis for many arguments is false.  metal is born of time spent playing the game.  you may find it laughable since this almost implies valve paying us to play the game, but yes, they are in fact paying us to play the game.  it's an enticement which ultimately leads some of us to spend money in the mannco store.  but ultimately time is the most precious commodity, extremely valuable, and valve would much rather have us playing tf2 than sim city with the limited time we do have...

 

and please don't bring up the idle accounts thing - i do not think it is happening in significant enough quantity to warrant drastic devaluation of metal.

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AntonioHipster

I may add additional reason is that because tf2op interface is clunky, even if people have cheaper prices they will not see them if not searching for too long (I personally don't like spending too much time searching throught 100 trades on tf2op) Comparing to steam community market for example, where all items are sorted by price, you buy cheapest by default.

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Quote+

Here is my theory of tf2outpost.com, and backpack.tf

 

  1. Price get increased from 2.66 Refined to 2.77-2.88 Refined. It's justified. Many people were unboxing, because there was Strange Festives, Haunted Unusuals, ect,. Keys were in high demand, and people were willing to buy them for a little extra(I call this day, Black Christmas)
  2. People began to buy/sell for 2.88 Refined, and they were traded very quickly, because everyone was buying for that much. People who weren't trading keys for 2.88 Refined, and were trading for less, began to not trade for nearly as many keys as they once did, and were forced to adjust, and spend a little bit more for keys.
  3. Enter the first buyers of 3 Refined. Of course, being the buyers of 3 Refined, they were not many. People with lots of metal can dish out an extra scrap, and sellers are OK with that, and quicky sold their keys to them.
  4. Compete means, "Strive to gain or win something by defeating or establishing superiority over others who are trying to do the same." More buyers with a lot of refined and wealth began buying for 3 Refined. Buyers began to compete with each other.
  5. Sellers realize that most were buying for 3 Refined, and wondered, "Will buyers compete once more? Could I get a bit more out of keys?" Sellers began to sell for a tad higher.
  6. backpack.tf adapts the new price.
  7. Anybody selling for lower than 3 Refined are bought instantly.
  8. Repeat.

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humen200

I dare all of u guys to troll key suggestions and make the price 3 ref suggestions. Bet they will accept it if a lot of people made it.

Lol troll troll lol.

 

And baloo that suggestion was a joke lol. Don't get hyped up and all that

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Quote+

I dare all of u guys to troll key suggestions and make the price 3 ref suggestions. Bet they will accept it if a lot of people made it.

Lol troll troll lol.

 

And baloo that suggestion was a joke lol. Don't get hyped up and all that

 

If you did that, the suggestion would just be closed immediately.

 

 

 

I wonder why Brad would even take the time to address such a stupid group.

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Hunter S. Batman
"For the integrity of the site, accuracy must be taken over the anger over what's been happening with key prices."

 

Vincent's statements on this topic seem very reasonable and level headed, however I would like to comment on this line of the paragraph he put in his 'acceptance speech' on the last vote. 

 

I'm sure I'm not telling you anything you don't already know but obviously many players have become quite upset by this whole key debacle and when they discuss what's happening to the price of keys in most circles, the admins and this site are at the top of of the list of who they feel are to blame right along side the people suggesting the prices and the key sellers themselves.

 

What's going on isn't exactly organized manipulation and doesn't have to be.  It's just numerous people that have learned to work the system. They don't need to be organized or even know each other to have the same goals and methods which have been clearly shown to work because of the voting mechanism on this site. When a price is accepted, raise the selling price a scrap or two, another vote gets initiated and eventually accepted, rinse and repeat. I've seen people that sell keys laugh about how simple it is on trade servers just to troll people there.

 

Here's the reality of it: Perception is everything. For right or wrong if this situation implodes as it appears it eventually may, much like the spreadsheet is remembered for price manipulation, everyone involved in this situation will likely be too regardless of their best intentions.

 

Having said that, this site obviously likes to pride itself on the prices being community derived, but I seriously doubt that majority of the community is being represented by current key prices. It seems to me that there are a lot more people getting angry about keys rising than defending it. Based on that, do I think you should put an artificially low price on keys to try and force a change in price?  No. However, if you really want to protect the reputation of the site and it's admins, the site should stop reporting key prices entirely or risk having their reputation irrevocably damaged in the long run. 

 

tl;dr - If your perceived (and actual) integrity is that important to you, you should stop reporting the price of keys entirely for the very valid reason of it being too volatile. You'll be much further ahead than just continuing to provide a method to manipulate the price and appear culpable in their rise.

 

Just my 2¢.  

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Jymotion

While there are several other threads discussing the same thing that you could have posted this to, I appreciate the time you put into it.

 

The idea of removing key prices and simply linking to other sources (tf2finance, trade.tf, outpost buyers/sellers) is growing on me, even though it goes against the purpose of the site.  I've said before that public opinion of the site is very important (wasn't agreed with by everyone) and I believe it is reaching a point where something needs to be done to save face.

 

then again, it isn't my site

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F  CHARLIE

It is impossible to not report the trade price of keys.  Remember, it is posted on Finance, Trad.tf and Spreadsheet.  Nobody complains about them because they can't.  Here is the only place they have a voice.  A place to express their frustration.  Should the site be thought of negatively because of that or positively.  I think positively.  All to often the traders don't even look at the exhaustive conversations that have been had here and that itself is frustrating.  Maybe we should make a small summery of the other threads.  Many player/traders rely on this site for information but its not their job to defend it.

 

Jymotion, you are up for Mod, and justifiably so.  That means it is your site too.  Sorry if that seems harsh to say it that way and tell me if I am out of bounds.

 

I will say that this thread is a "reputation" thread instead of a key thread.

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BQE

Reporting a false price in order to lower key prices is price manipulation.  Reporting NO price in order to lower key prices is also price manipulation.

 

Look, the fact is, keys will rise as long as two things are present.  #1, metal supply continues to increase.  If you graph the amount of metal with the price of keys, I swear you could interchange them and not be able to tell the difference.  The numbers are different of course, but the rate of increase in keys is nearly identical to the rate of increase of metal.  And #2, as long as people are willing to pay the higher price, keys will rise.  The market will adjust to meet the limits of the consumers.  If a majority of the consumers stop paying the next price, key sellers will have no choice but to stop increasing the price. 

 

Also, stop fucking selling to and buying from keybots.  Keybots ought to be banned, IMO.

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F  CHARLIE

Reporting a false price in order to lower key prices is price manipulation.  Reporting NO price in order to lower key prices is also price manipulation.

 

Look, the fact is, keys will rise as long as two things are present.  #1, metal supply continues to increase.  If you graph the amount of metal with the price of keys, I swear you could interchange them and not be able to tell the difference.  The numbers are different of course, but the rate of increase in keys is nearly identical to the rate of increase of metal.  And #2, as long as people are willing to pay the higher price, keys will rise.  The market will adjust to meet the limits of the consumers.  If a majority of the consumers stop paying the next price, key sellers will have no choice but to stop increasing the price. 

 

Also, stop fucking selling to and buying from keybots.  Keybots ought to be banned, IMO.

 

1. The point u r trying to make is that rate of trade price increase should generally match the growth rate of ref.  Which it doesn't.

2. Keybot doesn't make sense to me.

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