The key price thread

[BQE]

1. The point u r trying to make is that rate of trade price increase should generally match the growth rate of ref.  Which it doesn't.

2. Keybot doesn't make sense to me.

1.  Oh no?  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqfwmAoqShs7dEVWellMbTBjWUxJcmJwaVNuLVZBUEE&usp=sharing I'm not saying it SHOULD, I'm saying it DOES.  And to clarify, I'm not claiming that one causes the other, only that they very strongly correlate. 

 

2. Keybots, traders progam bots much like hat banking bots or scrap banking bots.

[Hunter S. Batman]

While there are several other threads discussing the same thing that you could have posted this to, I appreciate the time you put into it.

 

The idea of removing key prices and simply linking to other sources (tf2finance, trade.tf, outpost buyers/sellers) is growing on me, even though it goes against the purpose of the site.  I've said before that public opinion of the site is very important (wasn't agreed with by everyone) and I believe it is reaching a point where something needs to be done to save face.

 

then again, it isn't my site

 

Thanks. I didn't actually check for others but figured it was too long for just a reply anyway and didn't want it to just get buried. 

 

Regardless of my own feelings about what's actually going on, I honestly think they (bp.tf and the admins) want to distance themselves as much as possible from this issue, it's not going to end well. While they technically don't have to do anything, they can't be totally unaware of how the site's reputation is suffering because of this. They can look on pretty much any major forum that has a TF2 section or large number of TF2 players in it's membership and find all the evidence they need to see how the tides have shifted against them so I won't bother paraphrasing. 

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"Reporting NO price in order to lower key prices is also price manipulation." - Since this is the only thing that has the slightest to do with anything I'm talking about, I'll respond to that. 

 

Wrong. Reporting no price is simply refusing to provide a price based on valid mitigating circumstances. Unless you're hearing voices in your head it is completely unbiased and offers no influence either way. 

 

I'll clarify it even more, I honestly don't give a crap anymore about the price of keys. I don't buy them and haven't since they were 3 ref. I have 650+ of them stockpiled on an alt along with dozens of various higher value promos. I run 250 idle accounts a week and could buy dozens of keys a week with just my spare change but don't even want them. The only thing I use any of this stuff for anymore is to liquidate on the community marketplace or sell for cash.

 

I'm not even sure I care about the rather dodgy way that keys are being manipulated to these ridiculous prices anymore either. All I'm offering is a heads up from the outside looking in.

 

The spreadsheet folks have yet to shed the infamy they earned from their hubris, let's hope bp.tf has more sense. 

[Jymotion]

Jymotion, you are up for Mod, and justifiably so.  That means it is your site too.

 

Well, I just submitted an application, but it could certainly be argued that all of us here have some sort of stake in the site.  Anyway, I appreciate the compliment.

 

 

"Reporting NO price in order to lower key prices is also price manipulation." - Since this is the only thing that has the slightest to do with anything I'm talking about, I'll respond to that. 

 

Wrong. Reporting no price is simply refusing to provide a price based on valid mitigating circumstances. Unless you're hearing voices in your head it is completely unbiased and offers no influence either way. 

 

I agree with you here.  It wouldn't explicitly say "we've been controlling the price of keys and we've decided we'll stop" or "we're stopping reporting key prices in an effort to lower them".  Assuming it would be followed by a front page announcement, it could certainly be presented as an exception to the system as the result of popular demand.

 

While I am typically of the mindset that a site like this should stick to what it wishes to do and allow people to follow it or not, I understand that this site is important in many ways to quite a few people.  I think making an exception to the way it does things, and only for an item as unique as keys, may be the best route to take.

[Hunter S. Batman]

Well, I just submitted an application, but it could certainly be argued that all of us here have some sort of stake in the site.  Anyway, I appreciate the compliment.

 

 

I agree with you here.  It wouldn't explicitly say "we've been controlling the price of keys and we've decided we'll stop" or "we're stopping reporting key prices in an effort to lower them".  Assuming it would be followed by a front page announcement, it could certainly be presented as an exception to the system as the result of popular demand.

 

While I am typically of the mindset that a site like this should stick to what it wishes to do and allow people to follow it or not, I understand that this site is important in may ways to quite a few people.  I think making an exception to the way it does things, and only for an item as unique as keys, may be the best route to take.

 

Exactly. I don't think anyone with any stake in this can honestly say that they don't feel something out of the ordinary is going on with key prices. 

 

But it comes down to this: Do they (bp.tf) really need to have the site dragged through the sewer and tossed aside like the spreadsheet before they realize that they're going to be the ones left hanging with this? 

 

Better to just stop offering prices on that item and let it sort itself out. 

[☣Long218☢]

What is this "Give it atleast a week before just expanding the range." why do I have to wait one week just to update the price by a scrap ? By then it would be way outdated already. Do mods getting freak out by peer's pressure and start to close key suggestions more and more even though they are accurate ?

[lukecandy]

What is this "Give it atleast a week before just expanding the range." why do I have to wait one week just to update the price by a scrap ? By then it would be way outdated already. Do mods getting freak out by peer's pressure and start to close key suggestions more and more even though they are accurate ?

because you are whoring rep and people don't want key prices to be raised, they almost all get downvoted and it is a waste of everyones time. Especially yours.

[Uranium235]

Here is my theory of tf2outpost.com, and backpack.tf

[...]

Well put, but you could've said that is one sentence:

backpack.tf increases market transparency but is not an explanation for the cause of changing supply and demand, which cause key price changes.

[Triforce of Charmanders]

because you are whoring rep and people don't want key prices to be raised, they almost all get downvoted and it is a waste of everyones time. Especially yours.

[☣Long218☢]

because you are whoring rep and people don't want key prices to be raised, they almost all get downvoted and it is a waste of everyones time. Especially yours.

all key suggestions give negative rep...

[mattje]

all key suggestions give negative rep...

[F CHARLIE]

1.  Oh no?  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqfwmAoqShs7dEVWellMbTBjWUxJcmJwaVNuLVZBUEE&usp=sharing I'm not saying it SHOULD, I'm saying it DOES.  And to clarify, I'm not claiming that one causes the other, only that they very strongly correlate. 

 

2. Keybots, traders progam bots much like hat banking bots or scrap banking bots.

1. Nothing was on doc spreadsheet but I am on ny phone

 

2. No, I get the bot I just don't get why people use them. Unlike hat/weapon bank they don't pay market for keys or a lot others.

[BQE]

The spreadsheet is my own personal tracking of metal, keys, and key prices.  Key price increase, while not as consistent and smooth as metal increase, has approximately the same slope as metal increase.

[Uranium235]

I seriously doubt that majority of the community is being represented by current key prices. It seems to me that there are a lot more people getting angry about keys rising than defending it.

But maybe that's because the majority has accepted and no problem with the Key price and sees those haters as not worthy of their time?

After months of hearing the same old stupid arguments, just by different people, that is the case with me.

[Duscoda]

all key suggestions give negative rep...

[Triforce of Charmanders]

all key suggestions give negative rep...

Only if you're an ass in the original post/comments.

[Pyrocide]

I still giggle at the "reached maximum votes" suggestion.

[Hunter S. Batman]

But maybe that's because the majority has accepted and no problem with the Key price and sees those haters as not worthy of their time?

After months of hearing the same old stupid arguments, just by different people, that is the case with me.

 

I'm so glad you could find something to cherry pick out of what I said to complain about. Too bad it's not even remotely close to my actual point. 

 

Seriously, if that's all you 'get' from everything I've said then thanks for visiting, your comments have been taken under advisement for such time as they become relevant to something I'm actually talking about. 

[Jymotion]

What is this "Give it atleast a week before just expanding the range." why do I have to wait one week just to update the price by a scrap ? By then it would be way outdated already. Do mods getting freak out by peer's pressure and start to close key suggestions more and more even though they are accurate ?

 

why not post this in one of the several threads that make the argument for it rather than starting a new thread with no context

[Distinctively Vincent]

On the matter of bp.tf as a 'method for manipulation'. Bp.tf's influence has been proven negligible when it comes to key prices time and again. When bp.tf is lagging behind due to unsuitable suggestions, key prices continue to increase on their own and the only result is a bigger gap between bp.tf's price and reality. When users leverage quicksells to REDUCE key price on the site, people keep on buying exactly as they were and the market doesn't even blink. For at least a month now, bp.tf has been pricing strictly on the side of the buyers- as low as can be reasonably done while maintaining a degree of accuracy. Key sellers don't sell a 'scrap above', they sell where the market realistically sits, whatever that gap is nonexistant, a scrap, or a reclaimed.

 

Basically, key resellers aren't using bp.tf for their profiteering. Those that do would be perpetually out of keys. A key reseller does it as any single item focused dealer- by feel. Selling too quickly or buying too slowly? Bump up your selling/buying price. Selling too slowly or buying too quickly? Bump down your selling/buying price. Not something you need a guide for in the slightest. Given how behind bp.tf frequently is on key prices due to the pressure of the community, those that claim to be using it for their key reselling are either claiming as such to get a rise out of the mob or just deeply unsuccessful in their key trading.

 

All of that said, the subject of removing key prices from the site. It's something I personally disagree with. As outlined above, it won't impact the market in the slightest. It would do harm in those that DO genuinely need a price guide, as it would leave them open to being sharked out of their keys. Meanwhile, the only good it would do is satisfying a mob.

 

The only thing left then is the risk left to bp.tf's reputation. That, itself, comes down to only one person- Brad. It's his site, and hiding a price in the system is an action only he could make.

 

Apologies if I've repeated too much anything anyone else has said in this topic. Took me a while to get around to posting, may have forgotten what someone else has already said here.

[Crabislav]

get wrecked long

[@@@@@@]

while it's true that they have succumbed to peer pressure, you are an asshole; long 

[Distinctively Vincent]

Bp.tf is currently, at worst, outdated by 1 scrap on the high end. Off by 1 weapon at mean, hardly something to be concerned over, particualrly with keys trading over a wider range than ever before and bp.tf being off by much more than that over the past couple of weeks. One week ago, tf2finance showed as 1 scrap less than what it is today. So, assuming that trend holds, bp.tf will be off by little more than a scrap at the time a new suggestion arises to fix it. I personally think that works rather nicely.

[Rhys13th]

Reporting a false price in order to lower key prices is price manipulation.  Reporting NO price in order to lower key prices is also price manipulation.

 

Look, the fact is, keys will rise as long as two things are present.  #1, metal supply continues to increase.  If you graph the amount of metal with the price of keys, I swear you could interchange them and not be able to tell the difference.  The numbers are different of course, but the rate of increase in keys is nearly identical to the rate of increase of metal.  And #2, as long as people are willing to pay the higher price, keys will rise.  The market will adjust to meet the limits of the consumers.  If a majority of the consumers stop paying the next price, key sellers will have no choice but to stop increasing the price. 

 

Also, stop fucking selling to and buying from keybots.  Keybots ought to be banned, IMO.

 

Speaking as a guy who Mods for a community that made the first Keybot, I see no issue for it. Pheonix specifically *gave* away the how to and a lot of stuff he made himself, sich as a custom way to interact with the API. How are they any better or worse than a hat banker? Imagine I set up a bot to sell craft hats at 1.22 and sell at 1.44, it's no worse than a player going to do the same, it's just allowing that player to get more time. The CTS Bot consitently buys very close to backpack.tf's high end (5 ref flat when backpack.tf was at 4.66-5 ref) and yet still has issues getting a full stock of keys. The selling price is so high because of that problem; people would just buy them too fast.

[BQE]

Hat-banking and scrap-banking is different, because those have built in protection against inflation, namely the crafting system. 

[Iris★]

 

because you are whoring rep and people don't want key prices to be raised, they almost all get downvoted and it is a waste of everyones time. Especially yours.