The key price thread

[Whitnezz]

It makes sense what Arry said. I was wrong concerning that there is only one market.

 

Concerning what I said about demand, I never meant to say that the demand actually decreased, I was referring to the chart you used to show how supply and demand works.

 

I actually meant to say that quantity demanded = quantity supplied, because I thought that at some point supply should follow demand. I just think that demand isn't actually determined by income in the TF2 economy, because many traders don't think rationally.

 

We never see that happen when we rejected a suggestion.

 

 

I still think that if BP.tf increases the price for keys by a scrap because there were maybe 20 people selling for the actual price, 5 selling above the market price, but also maybe 5 people selling below the market price. The price would probably still be raised, because people hardly ever search for counterproof. Consequently, sellers feel legitimized to raise their prices. Someone who doesn't trade that often will then - as soon as he takes a look at BP.tf's prices - buy for 1 scrap above the market price, because he thinks that's the normal price. IRL everyone has to deal with money at some point and will surely know about prices, which isn't the case in the TF2 economy...

 

And who said a Key "should be" equal to 2.X Refined? Is it written on the Key itself?

 

That implies I said that a Key "should be" equal to X. Refined. I never said that.

 

You missed the fact that the currency market is Free Floating.

 

 

That's not true either. I was showing, how - in my opinion - it would work without all the traders that buy/sell keys for profit.

 

supply normally follows demand

 

True, I didn't phrase that correctly.

 

Monopoly only refers to ONE seller.
Oligopoly refers to SEVERAL sellers.
Collusion is among Oligopoly sellers.

Half of the population asking for a higher price is not Collusion.

 

 

So sorry for not knowing the correct economic term. I thought I gave arguing with common sense a try.

 

Apart from that. According to Arry Waters there are two different markets, right? I don't even think it's very improbable that the key/metal difference is increasing because of the reason I have explained above. That would make sense, wouldn't it? It would at least explain why each market isn't affected by the current events.

 

 

@Uranium 

I haven't ignored your reasons. I do simply have a different opinion than you do. Please don't call anything that doesn't exactly think like you a communist. Are you American?

 

Ask yourself why so many other items do not increase in price (in Metal, Keys, Buds) as fast as Keys do in Metal, even though sellers also constantly try to sell them above the reported price. If your theory was correct, shouldn't that cycle apply to every item that has a price reported here? Maybe that will help you understand.

 

That's a very interesting thought indeed. I'm sure it would apply to any item if it would be as essential for trading as keys and metals are.

 

I'm not trying to offend anyone here and as you might see I don't have huge knowledge on economy. I'm trying to argue with common sense (I'm probably gonna regret saying that.

[Uranium235]

@Uranium 

I haven't ignored your reasons. I do simply have a different opinion than you do. Please don't call anything that doesn't exactly think like you a communist. Are you American?

Nope, we most likely live on the same continent.

I never called you a communist. In fact, I was not even referring to you specifically, if you read what I said carefully.

But I did intend to insinuate something with that remark, that's right.

 

I'm not going into your other comments any further, as that's been discussed already and we would be running around in circles.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

So wrong. They will always be able to get them at 4 refined. It'll get harder, but that's because of people adjusting to the backpack.tf price. If this was so true, than the price of everything in the game would be going up.

If prices were solely based on bp.tf+ then the price of EVERY item would go up, but thats not happening....most stay relatively stable. And no, the reason why its harder to get them at 4 ref is because they all get bought up and people ask for more, thats how currency trading works....thats why buds are no longer 12 keys, and why bills are no longer 4-5 keys, and why a max is no longer 4-5 buds....things change. Demand fluctuates, and prices change with demand, not because a price is listed.

[F CHARLIE]

 

 

The production activity of mid-tier item is associated with Keys, not Refined. Meanwhile, craft Hat is associated with Refined.

 

We make millions of Strange items each year, through Keys.

 

 

The interesting component of that is that the product of un-crating has much less value than the key itself.  More so than before.

[Uranium235]

The interesting component of that is that the product of un-crating has much less value than the key itself.  More so than before.

 

It's not as bad as you think. Crates are mostly opened when new crates appear (link) and some items within are still relatively pricey because they are new and desired. People also simply like to uncrate, the experience and excitement in gambling also has some value that you can't really put a price tag on - actually you maybe sort of can, it could be the expected loss.

The strange weapons tend to follow the Key price, at the very least new ones do. e.g. the Strange Flying Guillotine went for 1-2 Keys and the first accepted price was 1-1.5 Keys when it was first introduced. So it's not like that a high Key price ruins uncrating.

 

Since TF2 is still just a game to most, many people don't calculate (at all) like a risk neutral or risk averse individual. And that's a good thing and not surprising to me at all.

[F CHARLIE]

It's not as bad as you think. Crates are mostly opened when new crates appear (link) and some items within are still relatively pricey because they are new and desired. People also simply like to uncrate, the experience and excitement in gambling also has some value that you can't really put a price tag on - actually you maybe sort of can, it could be the expected loss.

The strange weapons tend to follow the Key price, at the very least new ones do. e.g. the Strange Flying Guillotine went for 1-2 Keys and the first accepted price was 1-1.5 Keys when it was first introduced. So it's not like that a high Key price ruins uncrating.

 

Since TF2 is still just a game to most, many people don't calculate (at all) like a risk neutral or risk averse individual. And that's a good thing and not surprising to me at all.

 

The price for cleaver dropped so fast tho.  I un-crated one later in that day and you couldn't get 1 key anymore for it.  I stopped at three crates.  One 57 and two 56.  They could have at least made new hats/misc for those crates.

[Whitnezz]

I'm not going into your other comments any further, as that's been discussed already and we would be running around in circles.

 

Probably true :-/

[F CHARLIE]

Wow, look at all the items price above a key that are dropping.  Not too shocking tho......see below

[F CHARLIE]

Some items did. Others didn't.

 

Examples being the Tosslecap, Anger, and the Marxman.  Used to be in keys, as keys went up and they started failing to sell for a key, they got converted into refined prices. Others that continued selling at the key price, remained in keys. All in all, I don't think there's a problem here. Those that get outpaced by the rise of keys get caught and converted. The rest are indeed similarly climbing relative to refined, they don't need to be converted yet.

 

Under the same theory, yes they all do.

 

Wow, look at all of the items that above 1 key that are dropping.  I hope everyone is glad to pay 8 keys for bills and 26(25) keys for buds.

[Chief D]

Wow, look at all of the items that above 1 key that are dropping.  I hope everyone is glad to pay 8 keys for bills and 26(25) keys for buds.

I'll assume you believe all items priced in keys will drop. doubt it.

[F CHARLIE]

I'll assume you believe all items priced in keys will drop. doubt it.

my point is that as nearly 60% of items priced in keys appears to be dropping, does any trader wonder if they are paying to much for bills/buds?  i dont deal in them much so....

[Distinctively Vincent]

Why'd you suddenly bring this up again? If you're talking about buds, they've always been rather volatile and, outside of halloween, unpredictable in terms of key price. During the key->refined rise, buds went up from 25 keys to 27-28 keys. So, no, this isn't some kind of ongoing trend that started at the same time keys went up.

 

And I don't even know why you bring up Bill's, which continue to be a steady 8 keys, just as it had been for long before keys started their frantic climb.

[Joshua Cain]

Why'd you suddenly bring this up again? If you're talking about buds, they've always been rather volatile and, outside of halloween, unpredictable in terms of key price. During the key->refined rise, buds went up from 25 keys to 27-28 keys. So, no, this isn't some kind of ongoing trend that started at the same time keys went up.

 

And I don't even know why you bring up Bill's, which continue to be a steady 8 keys, just as it had been for long before keys started their frantic climb.

Actually bills r 7 keys. If I were buying that's the most I should have to pay.

[BQE]

Proof?  

[Joshua Cain]

Scrap.tf

[BQE]

That is a website, not proof. 

[buddhapest]

Scrap.tf

i would treat scrap.tf like an automated quickbuyer.  it's where you go to sell something when you don't really want to deal with the lag of trading with humans.

 

granted in reality it's not so easy because their bots rarely have keys because item buying is very new there.

 

counter proof to buying bills for 7 keys is that they are often used in place of 8 keys when buying higher priced items.  that's a lot more common than someone needing to flip a bill's hat at scrap.tf

[F CHARLIE]

i would treat scrap.tf like an automated quickbuyer.  it's where you go to sell something when you don't really want to deal with the lag of trading with humans.

 

granted in reality it's not so easy because their bots rarely have keys because item buying is very new there.

 

counter proof to buying bills for 7 keys is that they are often used in place of 8 keys when buying higher priced items.  that's a lot more common than someone needing to flip a bill's hat at scrap.tf

 

That's the interesting point.  Its when you want keys for your bills that it gets sticky.  I would like to see how many successful sales of bills for keys.

[F CHARLIE]

That is a website, not proof. 

 

If you really want keys for your Bills that's the fastest option if they have keys.  If they don't and i do why should i pay more if you haven't found someone who will pay 8?

[BQE]

So are you saying quicksell price != normal price, or are you saying quicksell price should = the real price?  

 

Because it's really easy to find Bills buyers at 8 keys.  Just because I can't get an instant add doesn't mean the price is wrong. 

[Distinctively Vincent]

Regarding Bill's, all quickbuyer trades, off the first page of the key->Bill's search alone.

 

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9060912 - 7 keys 1 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9817030 -  7 keys 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9670827 - 7 keys 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8857088 - 7 keys 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9849622 - 7 keys 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10013831 - 7 keys 2 ref

 

Scrap.tf's 7 keys for Bill's is low as a quickbuyer even by outpost standards and only gets away with it for the same reason sites like tf2shop get away with charging such prices as $50 for buds or $2 for keys. Now, I'm not invested enough in this argument to bother huning down successful 8 key bill's trades, but why in the world would people be buying quickbuying bill's at ~7.5 keys if they weren't successfully flipping for at least 8?

[Chief D]

This thread is not about the price of Bill's. Make a new thread to talk about it.

 

Good post right here, in a #KEYVOLUTION group. Let's see how they react. http://steamcommunity.com/groups/savethetf2keys/discussions/0/828935672865040633/

[Quasi-DangerZone]

why don't we stop the inflation and put the key price back down to 3 ref, or is that not an option for you manipulative people, people on outpost wouldn't hate this website if they weren't so ridiculous about the prices of things, 4.66 for a key, remember the time when a key was 2.66 ref, yeah that time when low stock traders didn't get fucked over buy the manipulators who jacked up the price of a key to over 3 craft hats each, make backpack fix it at 3 or under or we boycott backpack.tf!

 

[The Killjoy]

why don't we stop the inflation and put the key price back down to 3 ref, or is that not an option for you manipulative people, people on outpost wouldn't hate this website if they weren't so ridiculous about the prices of things, 4.66 for a key, remember the time when a key was 2.66 ref, yeah that time when low stock traders didn't get fucked over buy the manipulators who jacked up the price of a key to over 3 craft hats each, make backpack fix it at 3 or under or we boycott backpack.tf!

Hahahahahahahaahahaha

Hahahahahahahahahahah

Wait, you're serious.

[Quasi-DangerZone]

are you not?

newcomers are getting discouraged from the game because keys dominate the economy and if you don't have them then basically your inventory is worthless.