The key price thread

[Uranium235]

I'm so glad you could find something to cherry pick out of what I said to complain about. Too bad it's not even remotely close to my actual point.

Why the hostile reply?

 

I did not complain about anything, quite the contrary. I picked that statement, because it was relevant to me in the sense that I was one of those "defending" the site and "the economy" in the past. I was giving my personal opinion on the matter that indeed is relevant, because your entire post is based on the "problem" you think many have and is a threat to the site. I do no not see a problem, just because the ones that are "angry" are louder than the ones that are "happy" with the way it is. Since I cannot proof / disproof either which side the majority is, I did not make such a claim and simply offered an alternative explanation from my point of view why things may be different to what they seem, no more no less. You said it yourself, perception is everything.

Brad told us in his KritzCast that the site is still growing rapidly, so the "problem" can't really be a threat at least.

 

If you somehow interpret that as being offensive, what your reply suggests, I don't know what to say.

 

Now, all that wall of text is explicitly and implicitly said with my previous post.

[Comanglia]

If prices were solely based on bp.tf+ then the price of EVERY item would go up, but thats not happening....most stay relatively stable. And no, the reason why its harder to get them at 4 ref is because they all get bought up and people ask for more, thats how currency trading works....thats why buds are no longer 12 keys, and why bills are no longer 4-5 keys, and why a max is no longer 4-5 buds....things change. Demand fluctuates, and prices change with demand, not because a price is listed.

 

But the question is. Who is creating this demand? Are they full time traders, or Players who only dabble into trading to get what they want?

I have a feeling it's the full time traders, as Players who only dabble into trading to get items they want are increasingly unable to purchase items LIKE Unusuals, Buds, Max Heads, Bills, and Keys.

 

In the past 6 months The Bills Hat has gone from 23ish Ref to about 41ref. You receive about 1 Ref on average per week and their's about 26 weeks in 6 months (52 weeks in a year people) the fact that the Bills Hat is almost keeping pace in terms of metal that the average player receives is a bit rediculous imo.

 

I originally noticed this when I decided to save up for a Bills Hat, but gave up when I saw the bills hat rising in value almost as fast as I was getting Ref, and after recently looking at the price of Keys and other common trade commonities and hell even my favorite paint Manns Mint I've decided I will no longer be trading for items, I'll just buy them from the Mann Co store, or trade with a close Friend. Sure it's more "expensive" but the amount of time it takes to go the other routes makes it worth it.

[Hugh Jazz]

 

 

 

because you are whoring rep and people don't want key prices to be raised, they almost all get downvoted and it is a waste of everyones time. Especially yours.

[F CHARLIE]

The spreadsheet is my own personal tracking of metal, keys, and key prices.  Key price increase, while not as consistent and smooth as metal increase, has approximately the same slope as metal increase.

 

I was on my phone the first time I looked aty it.

I have a little information that goes before that although I did not want to track as much as you did it shows an increase and then what appears to be usage for that last crates and now a climb again.  So. yes as the trade price has been increasing people have gone out and bought more keys at mann co.  I think this shows again that ref isn't cause for the increase for if it was people wouldn't buy them at the store they would just complain they were paying more in ref.  Look at the section in your spreadsheet on March 27 - 28.  This was the hight of uncrating of 56 - 57 and keys were being used by the ton nut the trade price was uneffected.  After that the trade price continues to climb.

 

3/4/13

ref = 1.228 million

rec = 779,000 thousand

scrap = 1.29 million

Keys = 477,141

 

3/14/13

Ref = 1.250 mill

Rec = 803,000

Scrap = 1.247 mill

Keys = 501,000

 

3/17/13

Ref = 1.259 mill

Rec = 809,000

Scrap = 1.349 mill

Keys = 510,000

 

3/24/13

Ref = 1.274 mill

Rec = 825,000

Scrap = 1.376 mill

Keys = 506,000 (although earlier in the week it was at 512,000)

[BQE]

The data collected shows correlation between metal and key price, not necessarily that more metal causes higher key price.  The opposite conclusion could also be drawn from the same data: rising key prices (caused by something else) drive people to idle more just to keep up, which drives the amount of metal up. 

[F CHARLIE]

The data collected shows correlation between metal and key price, not necessarily that more metal causes higher key price.  The opposite conclusion could also be drawn from the same data: rising key prices (caused by something else) drive people to idle more just to keep up, which drives the amount of metal up. 

Interesting

 

As far as I can tell the rate increase in ref is consistant week to week. With the increase in steam market price of the key, I assume they are not trading ref for keys but just pumping money into steam. I don't know who is trading for keys but it is either people who can't put money into steam or key speculators. It just takes so long to build up 5 ref if u just mainly play.

[andrew]

Well this certainly made me question why key prices are going up, the steam market aspect wasn't something I took into perspective entirely.

 

I was mostly riding on the rumors the 'Key carder' going dark 6 months back

[Chief D]

Well this certainly made me question why key prices are going up, the steam market aspect wasn't something I took into perspective entirely.

 

I was mostly riding on the rumors the 'Key carder' going dark 6 months back

Thanks for reading, if only all those other people would actually CARE about what's going on.

[GSC159753]

If prices were solely based on bp.tf+ then the price of EVERY item would go up, but thats not happening....most stay relatively stable.

Well thats a good point^, but most items in game (the ones "casual traders" use are not updated on a daily or bi-daily basis  When they are updated it's by a rec or a ref, or a key, it never goes up a little at a time to catch up with demand like keys are. 

 

Also I have a question, does anyone have an idea what kind of effect putting metal in the steam market would have on it's demand? (just wondering what everyone thinks)

[Hunter S. Batman]

On the matter of bp.tf as a 'method for manipulation'. Bp.tf's influence has been proven negligible when it comes to key prices time and again. When bp.tf is lagging behind due to unsuitable suggestions, key prices continue to increase on their own and the only result is a bigger gap between bp.tf's price and reality. When users leverage quicksells to REDUCE key price on the site, people keep on buying exactly as they were and the market doesn't even blink. For at least a month now, bp.tf has been pricing strictly on the side of the buyers- as low as can be reasonably done while maintaining a degree of accuracy. Key sellers don't sell a 'scrap above', they sell where the market realistically sits, whatever that gap is nonexistant, a scrap, or a reclaimed.

 

Basically, key resellers aren't using bp.tf for their profiteering. Those that do would be perpetually out of keys. A key reseller does it as any single item focused dealer- by feel. Selling too quickly or buying too slowly? Bump up your selling/buying price. Selling too slowly or buying too quickly? Bump down your selling/buying price. Not something you need a guide for in the slightest. Given how behind bp.tf frequently is on key prices due to the pressure of the community, those that claim to be using it for their key reselling are either claiming as such to get a rise out of the mob or just deeply unsuccessful in their key trading.

 

All of that said, the subject of removing key prices from the site. It's something I personally disagree with. As outlined above, it won't impact the market in the slightest. It would do harm in those that DO genuinely need a price guide, as it would leave them open to being sharked out of their keys. Meanwhile, the only good it would do is satisfying a mob.

 

The only thing left then is the risk left to bp.tf's reputation. That, itself, comes down to only one person- Brad. It's his site, and hiding a price in the system is an action only he could make.

 

Apologies if I've repeated too much anything anyone else has said in this topic. Took me a while to get around to posting, may have forgotten what someone else has already said here.

 

I was only really responding to that one line of your original comment. I'm not trying to bring pricing or the various theories, delusions, wishes or facts about why they're changing into it but a lot of other people seem to be. If it came across like that, it wasn't intentional. As stated I don't have the issue of them being too expensive because I simply don't care and have tons anyway. If I want them to use, I just use some I have stockpiled.

 

However, I have gotten quite used to using this site as an excellent pricing resource as I'm sure a lot of people do. If it loses all credibility due to being too proud to know when to 'cut and run' from a huge community polarizing issue and becomes as infamous as the spreadsheet, what next? Another pricing site? Another spreadsheet waiting to happen?

 

Why chance it? Regardless of what's causing it, this is the price of one item that is obviously undergoing suspicious pricing changes.

 

I sincerely feel that the site continuing to be lumped with the 'conspirators' behind all this will hurt the site in the long run. The evidence of that change in perception by the community is on every site that has commentary about pricing in TF2. If people are complaining about prices, there are people pointing the finger at admins like yourself and the site and that's what people are taking away from these discussions because quite frankly, you appear to mostly be doing nothing but let it happen as well as enabling the people raising the prices. At least temporarily suspending price reporting would show some kind of response instead of ignoring the issue and trying to continue as if it's not happening. 

 

Recently you had to block the members of an entire Steam group due to their intentions. Being able to publish the price of a single highly disputed and incredibly volatile item on the site was worth alienating (and giving justification to) potentially thousands of people who already suspect your motives??? You can't be serious.

 

It's been said that if backpack.tf doesn't report a price, then the spreadsheet will do it instead. So? Let them. They'll take another bullet when the **** hits the fan on this issue and put another nail in their coffin. So what? This isn't about them, it's about the perceived integrity of backpack.tf.

 

On a side note, I will mention that since the request to not make key price suggestions for a week after the last one was closed, pricing on outpost has miraculously stabilized within the range (to some degree, there will always be 'wishful thinkers' fueled by the price rocketing up the way it historically has and the way in which it happened). Imagine that.

 

If I gave any sort of crap and wasn't thinking of the best interests of this site, I'd be plastering that information all over any forum related to this discussion to fuel the fire for the tide rising against you. But I'm not, I present it as an interesting tidbit that is potentially relevant to almost every argument had about how the prices have changed in the past 6 months (and the temp ban I got for this: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/514d52a94bd7b85f2000000b - which sounds suspiciously similar to the 'Hey guys, wait at least a week' request that was made.)

 

Anyway, that's about all I have to say on the issue. Please don't make me have to say I told you so.

[Distinctively Vincent]

I don't think there's anything there I can respond to without pretty much repeating what I've already said, except this.

 

On a side note, I will mention that since the request to not make key price suggestions for a week after the last one was closed, pricing on outpost has miraculously stabilized within the range (to some degree, there will always be 'wishful thinkers' fueled by the price rocketing up the way it historically has and the way in which it happened). Imagine that.

 

The situation at outpost hasn't changed significantly since we first put 5 refined at the upper range. That was 2 weeks and SIX bp.tf price changes ago. The key market has been, as always, acting independently of bp.tf all that time.

 

Not to mention that request to not make key price suggesitons was 2 days ago. Even at its greatest rise, the key situation never varied greatly over the course of two days, and would appear 'stabilized' if looked solely through the lens of any three day spread. I'm afraid you're only seeing what you want to see.

[BQE]

Probably not much because item drops are automatic.  Metal would be just as useless. 

[Hunter S. Batman]

Not to mention that request to not make key price suggesitons was 2 days ago. Even at its greatest rise, the key situation never varied greatly over the course of two days, and would appear 'stabilized' if looked solely through the lens of any three day spread. I'm afraid you're only seeing what you want to see.

 

Perhaps. Plus the price is reaching what I'd think would be it's threshold so I don't think it has much higher it could go without any number of unforeseen consequences. 

 

Anyway, best of luck. I'll go back to watching the fallout. 

[Quote+]

Well put, but you could've said that is one sentence:

backpack.tf increases market transparency but is not an explanation for the cause of changing supply and demand, which cause key price changes.

 

Personally, I hold on to my Keys because they continue to go up. If I could go back to my past self and tell him that if I bought a Key for 2.66 Refined, I would of doubled my profits.

[F CHARLIE]

Here is my theory of tf2outpost.com, and backpack.tf

 

 

• Price get increased from 2.66 Refined to 2.77-2.88 Refined. It's justified. Many people were unboxing, because there was Strange Festives, Haunted Unusuals, ect,. Keys were in high demand, and people were willing to buy them for a little extra(I call this day, Black Christmas)
• People began to buy/sell for 2.88 Refined, and they were traded very quickly, because everyone was buying for that much. People who weren't trading keys for 2.88 Refined, and were trading for less, began to not trade for nearly as many keys as they once did, and were forced to adjust, and spend a little bit more for keys.
• Enter the first buyers of 3 Refined. Of course, being the buyers of 3 Refined, they were not many. People with lots of metal can dish out an extra scrap, and sellers are OK with that, and quicky sold their keys to them.
• Compete means, "Strive to gain or win something by defeating or establishing superiority over others who are trying to do the same." More buyers with a lot of refined and wealth began buying for 3 Refined. Buyers began to compete with each other.
• Sellers realize that most were buying for 3 Refined, and wondered, "Will buyers compete once more? Could I get a bit more out of keys?" Sellers began to sell for a tad higher.
• backpack.tf adapts the new price.
• Anybody selling for lower than 3 Refined are bought instantly.
• Repeat.

 

So a large part of the increase is due to simple belief, without reason, that the future price will be higher. Thus buying at current makes sense for speculator thus deminishing the available supply. The remaining sellers were the ones selling at higher to begin with so they become the new current. I don't know how much of that is true but it doesn't take many to keep the price rising. Again, the absolute ceiling is somewhere around 6 ref.

 

Unknown, Liddojunior has made the point that you make more using keys to buy items to sell.

[BQE]

What is this "absolute ceiling" you keep referring to? 

[F CHARLIE]

What is this "absolute ceiling" you keep referring to? 

 

Well, in paypal, ref goes for $0.35 which is $1.80 to exchange ref for a key which is also the paypal price of the key.  As the trade price increase the paypal price of keys will increase.  This dynamic is the likely source for trade price increase to begin with, some traders buying with ref and selling for paypal.  When the trade price of the key gets to 7.33 ref it is the same as $2.50.  It won't go beyond that as mann co store and steam market stop at $2.50.  In all reality it should stop before that with steam market having fees to sell.

 

The one exception will be if mann co increases its key price.  Then all hell would erupt.

[BQE]

There are many things in the mann co store that have a different real world conversion price, bp expanders and upgrade to premiums, for example. 

[Chief D]

Also, ref can drop

[F CHARLIE]

There are many things in the mann co store that have a different real world conversion price, bp expanders and upgrade to premiums, for example.

Because keys are currency they are what everyone uses to get anything they want.

[F CHARLIE]

Also, ref can drop

Yes, but I don't think it will.

 

In the earlier post I mention 6 ref. That's an estimate based on fees from steam market but u get the idea.

[Final2500]

1. Isn't spamming suggestions against rules? if so. why do key suggestors are spamming SO MUCH.?

 

2. Why is a guy. Known as a carded key buyer. who also has a prive bp. is allowed to make suggestions?

 

3.I saw a guy who simply wrote "Down vote:)" and got warned. why.?

 

4. why cant we even discuss in suggestions anymore. Do you admins want everyone posting proofs/counterproofs only?

Are we Robots? If we cant say our opinion what kind of place is this?

 

5."Do NOT suggest a new price range for keys until 3 days have past since the last increase" 

Well the thing is. Even tho Long/Any suggestor has their suggestion closed in past 12-24 Hours. He's still making new suggestions with higher range? You admins should probably make some kind of rule about that too.

[MC22]

to dunno. Long is real whory about it. His stuff gets closed. A lot. Spamming means not suggestions, but crap in the comments.

2. He can't trade anymore. This will never help him, it never did.

3. he included no reason to. There was plenty of proof.

4. there are too much "opinions" out there. "long is greedy" "mods are corrupted""SELLING KEYS AT 2.33'

5. his stuff gets closed. Read up on it

 

congrats for spamming the 9001st key thread.

[mattje]

1 week has past since the last increase

[Final2500]

to dunno. Long is real whory about it. His stuff gets closed. A lot. Spamming means not suggestions, but crap in the comments.

2. He can't trade anymore. This will never help him, it never did.

3. he included no reason to. There was plenty of proof.

4. there are too much "opinions" out there. "long is greedy" "mods are corrupted""SELLING KEYS AT 2.33'

5. his stuff gets closed. Read up on it

 

congrats for spamming the 9001st key thread.

1. So its FREE to spam suggestions or should i like.. "Donate" Few dollars?

2. This is not profit. why is he allowed. Since even private backpacks on Outpost is a bannable reason.

3./4. Admins should probably understand there's something going wrong if there are so many opinions bad about them. Like you can easily increase the price by showing Few Profit trades? how is this fair?