My fear about Unusual prices

[Slam]

As long as the game is still doing good with playercounts and economic stability, these hats will continue to go higher and higher in value. Every year more and more traders pass into the region of being able to purchase virtually any end-game top tier unusual they want with their accumulated backpack value, so the raise in price also matches the raise in average backpack value among high-end traders. If there weren't people out there willing to pay huge amounts of money and pure to purchase top-end unusuals, the Burning Flames TC would have crashed down to its Sunbeams and Scorching brothers' prices, but instead, clean ones continue to sell every now and again for well over 10 grand in actual money or item overpay. (Yes, duped ones go for way less, and the Burning TC's price is due to it being the undisputed most famous unusual in all of TF2 by a country mile, but still.)

[Flaim]

I'd just like to say that I am very proud of the fact that I was one of the early comers to this "HWEENS ARE GOING UP" hoarding and upselling tactic.

 

I bought a spellbound antlers for 600 keys and sold them for 1450. Not to claim credit for this method of profitting, but it seems that after I made that sale and the price suggestion was accepted, a lot of other high tier halloween owners started to follow. then before you know it the whole community was in on it. Im sure I wasnt the first but I do feel like my sale all those years ago had a big effect on the spellbound market which had to have effected the halloween market in some way.

 

But tbh this entire community's price is ONLY DRIVEN BY WHAT PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY FOR ITEMS. So if people are willing to drop 300 keys on a mediocre halloween hat, sorry dude, but thats just the way it works.

 

But hey-

Dont worry..

Valve is bound to fuck up and re-release old effects eventually! Thats just how they roll 

[Zalkarmus]

But again, I'm thinking long-term as well as short-term. If I buy all the decently-priced Halloween effects currently available like a Secret to Everybody Professional's Panama, I should expect to see some profit eventually, however, do people really want that? Probably not. It's a mid-tier hat with a God-tier effect, but people aren't quickly paying 175 keys for it (which I consider cheap), which would allow me to step in and take it. There are only two and that effect is the highest-tier for that hat, yet traders aren't even touching it. All of the very good Halloween Unusuals have already been bought up and are being resold for very high prices, while Burning, Scorching and Sunbeams (which look better on most maps and are more classic) are stagnating or going down in price. Most of these Halloween hats are simply not wanted even though they're supposed to be the best. I'm new to TF2 trading, but I remember years ago when I wanted Sunbeams and Burning on every hat; now I join the TF2 trading scene and people want Halloween effects. It's not the Halloween effects people want - it's the very HIGH-TIER Halloween effects on very high-tier hats people want, and those don't come onto the market hardly ever. A Darkblaze Nunhood last sold for 440 keys (which I also consider fairly cheap) but the person who resells it is for sure going to charge a crazy ass amount until the price is so inflated that it must come down and equilibrate. It's simply not worth it. The prices go increasingly higher within a short time period and with very few trades, and that is what we call a bubble, and it will burst.

[Zalkarmus]

• Stages of an economic bubble

•  
• Substitution: increase in the value of an asset
• Takeoff: speculative purchases (buy now to sell in the future at a higher price and obtain a profit)
• Exuberance: a state of unsustainable euphoria.
• Critical stage: begin to shorten the buyers, some begin to sell.
• Pop (crash): prices plummet

[Payback]

14 hours ago, Zalkarmus said:

The problem is that there are too many people in a position to own one of these very rare Unusuals, but not enough of them to go around, which causes hoarding and price gouging. It might be a little bit of sour grapes, but... The best Halloweens will be bought up and traded infrequently just like the Unusual Skullcaps. The rest of the low-mid tier Halloweens won't sell too much because there are better, cheaper, higher-tier Gen1 Unusuals that look better on most maps. So basically, once all the top Halloweens are bought up, you can either keep them for yourself or sell them for some profit until eventually all of the best ones are bought up and never traded, except when some extremely rich guy comes along and wants to pay out the ass. Again, I stress you to look at the Unusual Skullcaps. There are very few of them and the guys who own them have hoarded most of them, just like what's happening to the H'ween effects. There's basically no point in buying any of the Halloweens I think not, but I'm trying to figure out what is best to do in trading. Buy a large number of cheaper Halloween Unusuals and wait to resell them for higher when someone wants them, aesthetic value be damned? Knifestorm is one of the top-tier H'ween effects according to the average price, but does anyone in the world really want a 150 key Knifestorm Bolted Birdcage or 90 key Knifestorm Stately Steel Toe when they can get a Scorching Bolted Birdcage for $100? I'm very skeptical of Halloween Unusuals. They're considered the best simply because they're not Gen1 and are comparatively rarer, but that does not mean better. I really think they're going to tank in price once they get too high. It's a giant trading circlejerk with very few Halloween hat freaks actually playing the game, and if you fall for it you'll be sorry when you simply can't sell a low-mid tier H'ween effect.

 

 

lowtier halloween hats are popular among poorer traders but people try to highball them to no avail.

Take this for instance https://backpack.tf/item/2068528816

why anyone would pay 150 for it is far beyond me, but because it's one of the older halloween effects, anything is supposedly fair game. 

The godtiers are what push the market forward. if a darkblaze antlers sells for 6000, other owners might want more for their antlers, and it continues down the line. Similar to what happened to golden pans in a way.

 

As a collector I don't find bad hats worth buying. If i want something with what you'd call a "high-tier halloween effect", i wouldn't waste my time going after a bolted birdcage or the like, I'd want something similar to this https://backpack.tf/item/2079081735.

 

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, j58 said:

 

 

lowtier halloween hats are popular among poorer traders but people try to highball them to no avail.

Take this for instance https://backpack.tf/item/2068528816

why anyone would pay 150 for it is far beyond me, but because it's one of the older halloween effects, anything is supposedly fair game. 

The godtiers are what push the market forward. if a darkblaze antlers sells for 6000, other owners might want more for their antlers, and it continues down the line. Similar to what happened to golden pans in a way.

 

As a collector I don't find bad hats worth buying. If i want something with what you'd call a "high-tier halloween effect", i wouldn't waste my time going after a bolted birdcage or the like, I'd want something similar to this https://backpack.tf/item/2079081735.

 

Yes. I make a decent amount of money and there are a few things I want, but not the very highest-tier items because they are far too volatile, and I expect a crash. I can see a collector like you wanting them, but I have no interest in them because they are currently in a bubble. They are so rare that the price is unstable, and from one trade to the next can go up hundreds of keys. I want items that are popular and easy to resell to make some profit here and there to supplement my own income, and that leads me to Burning, Scorching and Sunbeams: items that are easily bought and sold, and are standard, clean, no gimmicks effects. I want the Dark Doorway Sky High Fly Guy, but I know most traders and collectors don't want it at all for its price tag. I like the effect, so I might pick it up just to have it to keep, but I don't expect it to ever really sell. My favorite hats for Soldier are the high-tier Skullcaps, but none of the owners of the Sunbeams/Scorching/Green Energy want to sell, so I'm probably going to get a Circling Peace Sign dupe and pair it with a Burning Rack. You have to make do sometimes.

[Payback]

id prefer a strange skullcap + unus rack than a cps combo tbh

[humann]

the reason why the sunbeams/scorching/burning are dropping is because there's many in existence and keep getting unboxed more and more. the halloweens aren't unboxable and they arent going to drop unless valve do something extremely stupid (why is very likely to happen). why they are not going to drop? because there's a very high demand, who the fuck cares about the average guy when you are talking about a +500 keys unusual lmao, there's many resellers willing to pay a decent amount for the hats just look at the rack that you used as an example there's buyers around 900 and many resellers would happily pay +1000 for it and then they eventually will sell the hat for +1500 for sure but that would take some time (because yes, that 1600 sale was really high). there's always demand on those hats, sure some of those sells are outliers as in every item or in every collector thing IRL could have a outlier sale, but that doesn't mean that the hats don't worth nothing or that they're in a bubble. most of the halloween hats are very likely to sell for even more than the bp prices (even when they're not outdated).  the only hats that have a slry problem with their prices are this kind of hats. most of the resellers would happily pay more than the bp prices for hats like the hats of j58 lmao

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, humann said:

the reason why the sunbeams/scorching/burning are dropping is because there's many in existence and keep getting unboxed more and more. the halloweens aren't unboxable and they arent going to drop unless valve do something extremely stupid (why is very likely to happen). why they are not going to drop? because there's a very high demand, who the fuck cares about the average guy when you are talking about a +500 keys unusual lmao, there's many resellers willing to pay a decent amount for the hats just look at the rack that you used as an example there's buyers around 900 and many resellers would happily pay +1000 for it and then they eventually will sell the hat for +1500 for sure but that would take some time (because yes, that 1600 sale was really high). there's always demand on those hats, sure some of those sells are outliers as in every item or in every collector thing IRL could have a outlier sale, but that doesn't mean that the hats don't worth nothing or that they're in a bubble. most of the halloween hats are very likely to sell for even more than the bp prices (even when they're not outdated).  the only hats that have a slry problem with their prices are this kind of hats. most of the resellers would happily pay more than the bp prices for hats like the hats of j58 lmao

You're not understanding my point though. Sure, more Burning/Scorching/Sunbeams get unboxed all the time, but they are the standard. Every other high-tier gets compared to them. These Halloween hats are too rare to even be properly valued. They go up and up in price with no ceiling and are bought up by loaded collectors and then never sold again, or sold very infrequently where they go for an even more insane price. They are too rare for their own good. The price can keep going up, but not forever. These items have not reached equilibrium and likely never will until they are taken off the market for good by collectors who will never sell them just like the Unusual Skullcaps. Right now they are just being traded around until a price is settled on, but again, they are are too rare to ever be settled. The owner of the Scorching Skullcap declined 2,000 keys. Any more than that is ridiculous when there are cheaper items that are more recognized symbols of wealth. They are not worth messing with unless you want to take a very big risk. Say the guy who bought the Hellfire Rack paid 1,600 keys and he turns around and sells it for 2,000. Then that guy sells it for 2,400. Where does it end? It just keeps going up and up until it pops. And yes, the only way to fix this problem is to bring back old Halloween effects, which I expect Valve to do to fix the H'ween hat bubble.

[humann]

1 minute ago, Zalkarmus said:

You're not understanding my point though. Sure, more Burning/Scorching/Sunbeams get unboxed all the time, but they are the standard. Every other high-tier gets compared to them. These Halloween hats are too rare to even be properly valued. They go up and up in price with no ceiling and are bought up by loaded collectors and then never sold again, or sold very infrequently where they go for an even more insane price. They are too rare for their own good. The price can keep going up, but not forever. These items have not reached equilibrium and likely never will until they are taken off the market for good by collectors who will never sell them just like the Unusual Skullcaps. Right now they are just being traded around until a price is settled on, but again, they are are too rare to ever be settled. The owner of the Scorching Skullcap declined 2,000 keys. Any more than that is ridiculous when there are cheaper items that are more recognized symbols of wealth. They are not worth messing with unless you want to take a very big risk. Say the guy who bought the Hellfire Rack paid 1,600 keys and he turns around and sells it for 2,000. Then that guy sells it for 2,400. Where does it end? It just keeps going up and up until it pops. And yes, the only way to fix this problem is to bring back old Halloween effects, which I expect Valve to do to fix the H'ween hat bubble.

there isnt any bubble, the halloweens hats are the only hats that have a good market, if valve bring them back they would hurt the economy badly. the point of a collector item is being rare. there's no chance of them "popping" if there's only a few in existence and the collectors can just sell them to quickbuyers. yeah they may drop but they are most likely going to rise. when someone wants to sell their hats fast they can just sell it to a buy order or a reseller, and there's way many people willing to buy them if someone list his hat for cheap.

btw: most of the people prefer the look of the halloween effects over the scorching/burning/sunbeams, so talking about looks they win by far. 

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, humann said:

there isnt any bubble, the halloweens hats are the only hats that have a good market, if valve bring them back they would hurt the economy badly. the point of a collector item is being rare. there's no chance of them "popping" if there's only a few in existence and the collectors can just sell them to quickbuyers. yeah they may drop but they are most likely going to rise. when someone wants to sell their hats fast they can just sell it to a buy order or a reseller, and there's way many people willing to buy them if someone list his hat for cheap.

btw: most of the people prefer the look of the halloween effects over the scorching/burning/sunbeams, so talking about looks they win by far. 

I simply disagree. There are too few of them to put a stable price on. It depends on what we're talking about. Collectors like the high-tier Halloweens and keep them for long periods of time, but the low-tier Halloweens have been forced into being valuable by the community. When traders get them, they bump up the price to the point of absurdity until a collector keeps one. They are volatile. It's like a painting by Van Gogh going for $1,000,000 at an auction to a painting collector, and then he tries to turn around and sell it for $1,500,000. It doesn't work like that. It's already been claimed by a living person and valued. It doesn't instantly go up just because it's rare. Items in a real economy have a strict range of value, but these Halloweens don't. The meme is forced by the community: a person should buy ALL H'ween hats they can because they WILL go up eventually. It's artificial and forced and it concerns me.

[Zalkarmus]

I've thought about it some more and I have a possible solution. Make Halloween effects only visible during Halloween, Full Moons, and on Halloween servers perhaps.

[humann]

You started talking about the halloween god tiers then you jumped into a sunbeams/scorching/burning hats and then you talk about the halloween low tiers. I don't know if you maked this thread to make the people think that the halloweens unusuals are in a bubble or you genuily believe the things that you are writting, but I hope is the first. btw this conclusion genuily made me laugh

18 minutes ago, Zalkarmus said:

I've thought about it some more and I have a possible solution. Make Halloween effects only visible during Halloween, Full Moons, and on Halloween servers perhaps.

 

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, humann said:

You started talking about the halloween god tiers then you jumped into a sunbeams/scorching/burning hats and then you talk about the halloween low tiers. I don't know if you maked this thread to make the people think that the halloweens unusuals are in a bubble or you genuily believe the things that you are writting, but I hope is the first. btw this conclusion genuily made me laugh

 

So then you are of the opinion that someone with a lot of money should invest in any and all Halloween hats?

[humann]

the only items that could be a decent long time investmente are the items that aren't obtainable anymore, hats with halloween effects, glitched items, rare spelled stuff and things like that. but that doesn't mean that is a good investment buying any hat at any price, you always have to use your brain, and I wouldnt buy any item as a long time investment.  As someone who buy stuff with cash to resell them I  prefere to buy halloween stuff for a good price over anything, I would pay full bp price for many  hats with halloween effects in cash or even more than the price, and there's many people doing that and getting a ton of profit. Most of the people love the hats with halloween effects over anything and the usual buyers aren't buying the hats as an investment, they're buying them because they like the effects over the others.  Also about the exclusive pieces of art, yeah a exclusive piece of art isnt for everyone and most of the people doenst have the amount of money or even the appreciation of the piece to buy it, so there isnt any problem with them having a ridiculous high price (which unusuals don't have) and no, your example is completely wrong, the art pieces of the greatest artist of all the time keeps raising in price every year because of the same reason that the exclusive hats keeps rising, because they're exclusive and limited. 

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, humann said:

the only items that could be a decent long time investmente are the items that aren't obtainable anymore, hats with halloween effects, glitched items, rare spelled stuff and things like that. but that doesn't mean that is a good investment buying any hat at any price, you always have to use your brain, and I wouldnt buy any item as a long time investment.  As someone who buy stuff with cash to resell them I  prefere to buy halloween stuff for a good price over anything, I would pay full bp price for many  hats with halloween effects in cash or even more than the price, and there's many people doing that and getting a ton of profit. Most of the people love the hats with halloween effects over anything and the usual buyers aren't buying the hats as an investment, they're buying them because they like the effects over the others.  Also about the exclusive pieces of art, yeah a exclusive piece of art isnt for everyone and most of the people doenst have the amount of money or even the appreciation of the piece to buy it, so there isnt any problem with them having a ridiculous high price (which unusuals don't have) and no, your example is completely wrong, the art pieces of the greatest artist of all the time keeps raising in price every year because of the same reason that the exclusive hats keeps rising, because they're exclusive and limited. 

You're right then. Buy all available Halloweens with good effects and hold onto them (especially Bonzo, Hellfire, Darkblaze, Demonflame, Arcana, Spellbound - I've noticed It's a Secret to Everybody isn't as popular as some make it sound), put them up for sale on backpack with profit in mind and remaining firm on the price, snatching up new rare H'ween hats with bought keys as they come onto the market, and continue the cycle until you reach a level where you can give the Skullcap and Hellfire Rack collectors a price they can't turn down. I guess if you have the money and are devoted to the game, this is how it must be.

[Zalkarmus]

I still can't help but feel that I'm right about a bubble waiting to pop though...

[Pigeon]

Hmm, the problem is TF2 is not like an IRL economy. You have to fucking gamble your money to open an item worth value (unusuals). I guess you could equate that to you have to risk your capital in real life to gain money, but if you play it right there are options which will definitely grant you profits in the short-term. Here there is no guarantee. Stop treating it like a real economy. Just trade hats :^)

[mr. o.g.]

13 hours ago, Zalkarmus said:

I still can't help but feel that I'm right about a bubble waiting to pop though...

 

Lol ..how many times have we heard this in the past ~10 yrs??

 

Bats..bats...bats. Secret is v. Nice too.  

[mb_]

By following "not traded that often so it is worthless" logic could we say same for Leonardo,Vermeer paintings that did not change much hands in last century ? Nope. In case of mentioned (rare/neat) unusuals demand was always there and with hyper-inflation (multi-class crate fiasco followed with crate apocalypse) of "standard" unboxable hats more and more people are willing to park serious buck into those "special" items - simple pride of (exclusive) ownership. Also items will appreciate in value which is nice thing even if owner does not want to sell them. One more factor could explain current situation, when massive chunk of market, for example higher tier 1st gens, gets huge drop - this creates "void" that will be filled with hats that are not inflation-prone (halloweens/smissmas hats, non unboxable miscs for example). Mentioned items also have both limited and low quantity so even significant price jumps wont do massive changes to unusual "market cap".

[Zalkarmus]

3 hours ago, mb_ said:

By following "not traded that often so it is worthless" logic could we say same for Leonardo,Vermeer paintings that did not change much hands in last century ? Nope. In case of mentioned (rare/neat) unusuals demand was always there and with hyper-inflation (multi-class crate fiasco followed with crate apocalypse) of "standard" unboxable hats more and more people are willing to park serious buck into those "special" items - simple pride of (exclusive) ownership. Also items will appreciate in value which is nice thing even if owner does not want to sell them. One more factor could explain current situation, when massive chunk of market, for example higher tier 1st gens, gets huge drop - this creates "void" that will be filled with hats that are not inflation-prone (halloweens/smissmas hats, non unboxable miscs for example). Mentioned items also have both limited and low quantity so even significant price jumps wont do massive changes to unusual "market cap".

Yes, I realize all this now. I was just being cautious because I'm new. I suppose it's like RuneScape in that clans would buy up all the rares till the price rose very high, and then dump them and the price went down. It's very similar to what's going on with Halloweens and Smissmases, but there was some fault in my logic. Anyway, this thread can die now. These are some of my loadouts when I can trade in two days.

[Zalkarmus]

Or this one.

[Kaiga]

On 11/2/2019 at 10:57 AM, Zalkarmus said:

You're not understanding my point though. Sure, more Burning/Scorching/Sunbeams get unboxed all the time, but they are the standard. Every other high-tier gets compared to them. These Halloween hats are too rare to even be properly valued. They are too rare for their own good. They are too rare for their own good. The price can keep going up, but not forever. These items have not reached equilibrium and likely never will until they are taken off the market for good by collectors who will never sell them just like the Unusual Skullcaps. Right now they are just being traded around until a price is settled on, but again, they are are too rare to ever be settled. The owner of the Scorching Skullcap declined 2,000 keys. Any more than that is ridiculous when there are cheaper items that are more recognized symbols of wealth. They are not worth messing with unless you want to take a very big risk. Say the guy who bought the Hellfire Rack paid 1,600 keys and he turns around and sells it for 2,000. Then that guy sells it for 2,400. Where does it end? It just keeps going up and up until it pops. And yes, the only way to fix this problem is to bring back old Halloween effects, which I expect Valve to do to fix the H'ween hat bubble.'

 

You don't seem to understand the difference between virtual item economies and real ones very well, so let me address some of these concerns:

These Halloween hats are too rare to even be properly valued.

Backpack.tf pricing does not put hard value on hats. If in your opinion something is improperly valued, well, it doesn't matter what you think because the site provides the prices of what the items are actually being sold for, rather than what people think it should be. It works much like a car buying site, in which a good deal is estimated based on what the item in question has, like i said, actually sold for. In the case of (good) Halloween unusuals, the price of which is understandably high- much like a vintage sports car of which very few models exist, and are largely the domain of wealthy collectors.

Would you go to a car buying site and make this same fearful argument that the price of Ferrari 250 GT's is unsustainable and are a bubble that's going to burst?
No. That's not how any of this works. Rare items are not currency nor are they the only unusuals on the market, and there's no irrevocable economy-destroying harm caused by them not being affordable to the 'trading masses', aside from some sour grapes which i largely think this thread and it's replies are about.

They go up and up in price with no ceiling and are bought up by loaded collectors and then never sold again, or sold very infrequently where they go for an even more insane price.

Correct. If people are willing to pay these prices, then that's what they'll be reported as selling for. That doesn't mean you're forced to, nor is the backpack.tf price report a hard value assigned to the item- Seeing as it also has the ability to go DOWN if the current owner sells it for less. Which quite frankly happens more than you'd think. That's why people wait years for hats to move to owners who want to sell them, or people with realistic asking prices. Welcome to the world of high-tier trading, where one of the key points is purposefully not paying astronomical buyouts unless you actually want the item for that price.

They are too rare for their own good. And yes, the only way to fix this problem is to bring back old Halloween effects, which I expect Valve to do to fix the H'ween hat bubble.'

Wait a second. What problem? Who's own good? The wellbeing of a one-off virtual item, who's existence can only be fully realized by being traded commonly? Or for you, the trader who benefits in either situation of the bubble bursting and value going down, or valve re-releasing the old effects (which actually did happen once, yet here we are).
We're not bloody stupid. This is classic status-quo changing political rhetoric that has existed since ancient greece:

-Want a solution to a personal problem (your desired hat being out of your price range)

-Frame your personal problem as a broad social problem (A bubble that will cause all the items you want to be less valuable to be, conveniently, less valuable, and a game-wide problem that warrants and you expect valve fixing, so you better sell for cheaper now before it happens! Not worth messing with unless you want a big risk!!)

-Get on a soapbox and preach this line of thinking in hopes of getting a conversation started and valve taking notice and providing a solution to your "problem" (this thread).


Yes, rare Halloween unusuals are expensive, often hoarded by collectors, but the only conceivable problem with this is when people collect the many variants of the same hat, depriving the market (and more importantly the players heads in-game!) of items they themselves couldn't possibly wear all at once just for the sake of having a complete set, in that case is like you've said, dead to the economy, in-game visuals and lost value. Same thing with people who've been banned or have deleted the game permanently with valuable items. The latter two's inventories should be auctioned off storage-unit style to players who actually play, so there can at least be something regained by the playerbase. Yes, it bothers me that people who own these things often don't play the game, but not enough to write a big pesudodialectic about it in some price site forum.

I really shouldn't have had to say this. The problem you're describing is largely a personal one, and really how collector's markets work.
 

[Raritylicious]

just buy them

4HEad

[Zalkarmus]

14 hours ago, Kaiga said:

The latter two's inventories should be auctioned off storage-unit style to players who actually play, so there can at least be something regained by the playerbase.
 

Genius.