My fear about Unusual prices

[Zalkarmus]

So basically the OG high-tier Halloween Unusuals are going up and up in price with every trade, while the low-mid tier H'ween Unusuals are mostly ignored. There is a hat I'm interested in that is low-tier, yet has one of the highest-tier H'ween effects in the game. It hasn't sold and no one seems interested in it despite it being a 1/1 with a good-looking H'ween effect. Certain hats garner much attention, and others that are comparable are worth next to nothing to most people. There are another couple of non-H'ween hats I'm interested in that are priced ridiculously, and the collectors don't even want to sell them because there are so few Unusuals of this particular hat. They will only sell them for ridiculous prices that rival the most coveted symbol-of-wealth hats like Burning TC, Hellfire Rack, or Burning KE. My fear is that the very high-priced Halloween Unusuals (as well as some of the 1/1 or 1/2 non-H'ween hats) are going to rise in price so far that no one will want to pay for them, and they will not sell at all, or will drop in price like a ton of bricks because the average buyer will not pay for them when there are standard alternatives that look better on most maps, like your average, somewhat plentiful Sunbeams, Burning or Scorching. Either that or the collectors will hoard all the highest-tier non-H'ween hats and H'ween hats until they eventually sell them to another collector for an insane price where the cycle will continue until the rug is completely pulled out from under the value. The hoarders, collectors and traders don't actually play TF2. At most, they sit in trade servers artificially inflating the price of high-tier Unusuals. In other words, these Unusuals are expensive for the sake of being expensive. It's a race to trade until the price becomes so high from the short ownership of the particular hat until it blows the hell up and crashes. Nothing can be done to stop them, but my point is that these very high-tier hats with low counts of existence are nearly becoming worthless as the average trader will not be able to pay for them, or might not even WANT to pay for them when there are smarter alternatives. When a collector gets a hat, it is removed from the market and thus priceless/worthless (depending on how you see it) and will only sell for the same price or a much bigger price as a collection, where the cycle continues. The Halloween hats in particular, and some of the status symbol non-H'ween hats, are overpriced and set to fall.

 

Tell me why I'm wrong. Enlighten me.

[Pixxi0us]

1 hour ago, Zalkarmus said:

My fear is that the very high-priced Halloween Unusuals (as well as some of the 1/1 or 1/2 non-H'ween hats) are going to rise in price so far that no one will want to pay for them, and they will not sell at all, or will drop in price like a ton of bricks because the average buyer will not pay for them when there are standard alternatives that look better on most maps, like your average, somewhat plentiful Sunbeams, Burning or Scorching. Either that or the collectors will hoard all the highest-tier non-H'ween hats and H'ween hats until they eventually sell them to another collector for an insane price where the cycle will continue until the rug is completely pulled out from under the value.

Couldnt agree more.

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, Pixxi0us said:

Couldnt agree less.

Tell me why.

[Pixxi0us]

16 minutes ago, Zalkarmus said:

Tell me why.

You pretty much reached a conclusion by yourself. Once in a while we see a new buyer who spends thousands of dollars in a few weeks on halloween unusuals paying ridiculous amounts from collectors who dont want to sell the hats unless its a price they cant deny. Like you said It will reach a point where some hats wont be affordable for 90% of the community unless the onwers quicksell / discount them. Why halloween effects (because they are defenetly the ones who look better).

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, Pixxi0us said:

You pretty much reached a conclusion by yourself. Once in a while we see a new buyer who spends thousands of dollars in a few weeks on halloween unusuals paying ridicolous ammounts from collectors who dont want to sell the hats unless its a price they cant deny. Like you said It will reach a point where some hats wont be affordable for 90% of the community unless the onwers quicksell / discount them. Why halloween effects (because they are defenetly the ones who look better).

But that's my point. There aren't many new buyers. I'm a new buyer and I just see a crash waiting to happen. I don't think most of the Halloween effects look "better". That's a more recent meme by the community. They look too situational, better on dark or Halloween-themed maps, and overall are more gimmicky/cheap looking. They're also hardly ever seen in-game because most of the owners of these rare H'weens don't even play. The standard Sunbeams, Scorching and Burning are somewhat plentiful and look better in TF2's main map rotation. The Sunbeams Skullcap, which is a hat I desperately want, isn't being sold by the owner. The owner of the Scorching Skullcap declined 2,000 keys despite buying it for less than 500. That Unusual simply does not exist for all intents and purposes. It's priced by the owner the same as more plentiful and recognized status symbols like Burning KE. The only way to get some rare items is by throwing your money away hoping someone in the future is equally as stupid with their money. These very high-priced Unusuals will stop existing for the vast majority of players and traders as they are hoarded, inflating the price until it bursts when people realize that Beams, Scorching and Burning on your average hats were better and more classic all along. It's similar to how painters of Napoleon would have him surrounded by very ornately-dressed subordinates while he himself dressed very simply so as to stand out.

[Brown]

1 hour ago, Zalkarmus said:

My fear is that the very high-priced Halloween Unusuals (as well as some of the 1/1 or 1/2 non-H'ween hats) are going to rise in price so far that no one will want to pay for them, and they will not sell at all, or will drop in price like a ton of bricks because the average buyer will not pay for them when there are standard alternatives that look better on most maps, like your average, somewhat plentiful Sunbeams, Burning or Scorching

Couldn't agree MORE. I've been thinking the same thing, I understand collectors wanting to pay whatever it takes to get a hat due to the rarity, but I don't understand why that'd drive up every single other hat with the rarer effects if nobody's actually looking to buy them. Kinda just seems like a fake-hype type thing, and explains why a lot of the cheaper hats with rarer effects, like bonzo, go unsold for months even at a reasonable price. Imo they'll come down eventually, maybe they'll come back in a future case, or people will just stop buying them for the novelty.

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, Brown said:

Couldn't agree MORE. I've been thinking the same thing, I understand collectors wanting to pay whatever it takes to get a hat due to the rarity, but I don't understand why that'd drive up every single other hat with the rarer effects if nobody's actually looking to buy them. Kinda just seems like a fake-hype type thing, and explains why a lot of the cheaper hats with rarer effects, like bonzo, go unsold for months even at a reasonable price. Imo they'll come down eventually, maybe they'll come back in a future case, or people will just stop buying them for the novelty.

Yes, and the novelty ends when a collector or trader decides to sit on a particular hat for months or years, waiting for the opportune time to sell for a ridiculous price. Then it's sold to the next trader who bought into the artificial hype and the price goes up some more until everyone who wanted a rare H'ween got one (at least for a while), and then the price plummets. The traders that the hat passed through made profit, but the guy who chose to keep the hat gave all his money away on the novelty, and then when nobody wants to pay the high price the person has it at, the rare item stagnates in price until the owner has no choice but to lower the price or keep it.

[Jazzy]

When it comes to high-tier trading, or even trading unusuals and other rare items in general, supply and demand is everything. Collectors could pay a lot for a hat due to rarity, but the possibility is also there for a regular trader to pay exceptionally more for the sake of being able to possibly make profit due to the hat being rare.

 

There's always going to be trouble when it comes to trading generally higher-priced unusual, Halloween or not. The older (1st/2nd Generation) Halloween effects just happen to be older, rarer and not unboxable anymore, and mix that in with the perpetual message

that they're super good unusuals will eventually create some sort of positive-reinforcement loop that drives the price higher and higher to those who are willing to pay it, until they aren't.

 

When you boil unusual hats down to its most basic form, it's simply a status symbol or gateway to profit. Many people who put investments into items such as these are unwilling to price them reasonably to what they paid for it, as that could be a simple admission of making a bad deal. Eventually the market will dry up, however it's really hard to say that this situation will necessarily fall apart naturally without some sort of shake-up (see old Halloween effects being brought back).

 

The hype is there, but there's no body or physicality to it. It's simply there because the self-perpetuating positive feedback loop continues to enamor traders who strive for their dream hat, or the dream of profiting off of a trade they made, and while yes, there will be a time that nobody will be interested in severely exaggerated price tags of Halloween/High-Tier unusuals, that might not be for a good little while longer.

 

Basically, tl;dr people are stubborn 

 

 

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, Jazzy said:

When it comes to high-tier trading, or even trading unusuals and other rare items in general, supply and demand is everything. Collectors could pay a lot for a hat due to rarity, but the possibility is also there for a regular trader to pay exceptionally more for the sake of being able to possibly make profit due to the hat being rare.

 

There's always going to be trouble when it comes to trading generally higher-priced unusual, Halloween or not. The older (1st/2nd Generation) Halloween effects just happen to be older, rarer and not unboxable anymore, and mix that in with the perpetual message

that they're super good unusuals will eventually create some sort of positive-reinforcement loop that drives the price higher and higher to those who are willing to pay it, until they aren't.

 

When you boil unusual hats down to its most basic form, it's simply a status symbol or gateway to profit. Many people who put investments into items such as these are unwilling to price them reasonably to what they paid for it, as that could be a simple admission of making a bad deal. Eventually the market will dry up, however it's really hard to say that this situation will necessarily fall apart naturally without some sort of shake-up (see old Halloween effects being brought back).

 

The hype is there, but there's no body or physicality to it. It's simply there because the self-perpetuating positive feedback loop continues to enamor traders who strive for their dream hat, or the dream of profiting off of a trade they made, and while yes, there will be a time that nobody will be interested in severely exaggerated price tags of Halloween/High-Tier unusuals, that might not be for a good little while longer.

 

Basically, tl;dr people are stubborn 

 

 

Yes. Take the Hellfire Rack for example. That sold for a very high price, and there are only three of them in existence, and only one is up for sale at the moment for $3,333 or 1,851 keys when its posted value from a couple of sales a few months ago is 1,000-1,600 keys. It's a bubble that is bound to burst and these people are going to lose a lot of money because these three have been sold to collectors (where they are never traded again for a long time) or traders who are attempting to make profit off of hats that are way too volatile, and it's following all Halloween effects which are meme'd by the community as being the best despite most of them looking out of place on normal map rotation. The vast majority of Halloween Unusuals up for sale currently are complete garbage. Why wants a Knifestorm Bolted Birdcage? Now, there are four Burning Racks, the cheapest clean one being 625 keys. More affordable, looks better on most maps, more classic, and just a simpler no frills Unusual.

[Pigeon]

Who is Jo? 

[Payback]

the hellfire rack sold to someone for 1000 keys which was considered somewhat ridiculous at the time

then it sold for 1600 which was seen as outlandish, I don't see it fetching that ever again. it was only bought to fulfill a triple portal set from my knowledge

[Ashannabuda]

Prices will always rise, anything can sell for any price, nothing a collector buys ever goes cheap unless they're the type that don't know how to spend money.

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, j58 said:

the hellfire rack sold to someone for 1000 keys which was considered somewhat ridiculous at the time

then it sold for 1600 which was seen as outlandish, I don't see it fetching that ever again. it was only bought to fulfill a triple portal set from my knowledge

Yes, and that Unusual is forever removed from the market, and there are only three of them. One is for sale currently. The only people buying these are people who don't really play, but see TF2 as a digital GI Joe collection. They are essentially worthless Unusuals because they are TOO rare and TOO costly. The collecting buyers don't want to sell them once they get them, forever removing them from the market. They are too rare to have a value. The price will go up and up if warring traders keep a hold on them, until a collector or trader decides to sit on it and then the collector has lost his money either through digital collecting or the trader never reselling it due to no one paying the price he wants. It's very risky and these extremely limited Unusuals are set up to have their bubble burst.

[Ashannabuda]

1 minute ago, Zalkarmus said:

Yes, and that Unusual is forever removed from the market, and there are only three of them. One is for sale currently. The only people buying these are people who don't really play, but see TF2 as a digital GI Joe collection. They are essentially worthless Unusuals because they are TOO rare and TOO costly. The collecting buyers don't want to sell them once they get them, forever removing them from the market. They are too rare to have a value. The price will go up and up if warring traders keep a hold on them, until a collector or trader decides to sit on it and then the collector has lost his money either through digital collecting or the trader never reselling it due to no one paying the price he wants. It's very risky and these extremely limited Unusuals are set up to have their bubble burst.

You're on crack, buddy. You obviously don't know what you're talking about, nothing is gone off market forever unless the item is actually locked or the account is deleted and even then any item can be resorted (very unlikely but possible). No unusual is so rare that it has no value, there are values for everything, some might be harder to price than others. The only time a collector loses their money is if they're an idiot, usually collectors buy items that are wanted and can be resold or often sold higher than what they paid as what they paid usually gets priced to that value.

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, Ashannabuda said:

You're on crack, buddy. You obviously don't know what you're talking about, nothing is gone off market forever unless the item is actually locked or the account is deleted and even then any item can be resorted (very unlikely but possible). No unusual is so rare that it has no value, there are values for everything, some might be harder to price than others. The only time a collector loses their money is if they're an idiot, usually collectors buy items that are wanted and can be resold or often sold higher than what they paid as what they paid usually gets priced to that value.

There's always gotta be this guy who thinks he knows better. There are three Hellfire Racks in existence. Using the Hellfire Rack as an example, these very high priced rare H'ween items are essentially worthless because the only people who want them are collectors who take these items out of the market. The only Sunbeams Skullcap was last sold five years ago! [Edit: It was last sold one year ago, but it had a four year stretch before that.] It's a very good Gen 1 example of the H'ween hat bubble. The price becomes so high in these traders' minds that they NEVER sell. The price will go up as long as traders have a hold on them, but it can't go up forever. They go up till a collector gets it and then it's not sold for years where it reenters the market for an even higher price, or as is more likely, will reenter the market at what someone is willing to pay for it, which will be lower because H'ween items are currently in a bubble. The lower-tier H'ween Unusuals aren't wanted whatsoever. As someone else said, the hype-machine will cause people who try to invest in 1/1s or low-tier, unwanted H'ween hats with rare effects to be stuck with a dud because they jumped on the H'ween Unusual trading bandwagon.

[Ashannabuda]

I don't get what you're on about, your example is the hellfire rack, you're saying it's worthless because it's popular, it will never sell for a high price. The rack could definitely sell higher than the current backpack price, or it could also remain at the normal price, there could be a limit to the price. As long as traders have a hold of them the price goes up, but if a collector has it all hell breaks loose because it will never sell again?

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, Ashannabuda said:

I don't get what you're on about, your example is the hellfire rack, you're saying it's worthless because it's popular, it will never sell for a high price. The rack could definitely sell higher than the current backpack price, or it could also remain at the normal price, there could be a limit to the price. As long as traders have a hold of them the price goes up, but if a collector has it all hell breaks loose because it will never sell again?

There are three Hellfire racks and two sold for 1000 and 1600 each respectively. Now the third is up for 1,850. This item will go to a trader who thinks he can buy the item and sell it for even more than that, riding on the hype of "muh high-tier Halloweens hurr durr" OR it will go to a collector who removes it from the market for a long period of time, the collector taking offers without formally listing it until the item sells EXORBITANTLY higher, just like the few guys with a high-tier Skullcap. It is in a bubble and a very volatile item just like a lot of high-tier H'weens. It's very high-risk because the high-tier H'weens are simply riding on the meme started by the TF2 community that they are the best endgame hats and not very situational. It's definitely an artificial bubble on a scale of a RuneScape clan rare hoard and dump.

[Ashannabuda]

The reason the rack is so high is because of it being a misc and a halloween effect, it's not only a hype train, people personally like the effects and like stacking miscs. These items are wanted because they're appealing and limited, this has been going on for much longer than just a "hype". What is your problem with people buying and selling items for what they want, it's their money/item and they can do whatever they want, you sure ain't stopping em. Let's say all this stuff happens and every misc and halloween is gone forever, that leaves you with your wish of low tiers and all the other items.

[Infernape]

Ash sounds like he needs an ice cold dr.pepper

[Ashannabuda]

Ew soda

[Scott Bakula]

This entire topic just tastes of sour grapes to me.

[Zalkarmus]

1 hour ago, Scott Bakula said:

This entire topic just tastes of sour grapes to me.

The problem is that there are too many people in a position to own one of these very rare Unusuals, but not enough of them to go around, which causes hoarding and price gouging. It might be a little bit of sour grapes, but... The best Halloweens will be bought up and traded infrequently just like the Unusual Skullcaps. The rest of the low-mid tier Halloweens won't sell too much because there are better, cheaper, higher-tier Gen1 Unusuals that look better on most maps. So basically, once all the top Halloweens are bought up, you can either keep them for yourself or sell them for some profit until eventually all of the best ones are bought up and never traded, except when some extremely rich guy comes along and wants to pay out the ass. Again, I stress you to look at the Unusual Skullcaps. There are very few of them and the guys who own them have hoarded most of them, just like what's happening to the H'ween effects. There's basically no point in buying any of the Halloweens I think not, but I'm trying to figure out what is best to do in trading. Buy a large number of cheaper Halloween Unusuals and wait to resell them for higher when someone wants them, aesthetic value be damned? Knifestorm is one of the top-tier H'ween effects according to the average price, but does anyone in the world really want a 150 key Knifestorm Bolted Birdcage or 90 key Knifestorm Stately Steel Toe when they can get a Scorching Bolted Birdcage for $100? I'm very skeptical of Halloween Unusuals. They're considered the best simply because they're not Gen1 and are comparatively rarer, but that does not mean better. I really think they're going to tank in price once they get too high. It's a giant trading circlejerk with very few Halloween hat freaks actually playing the game, and if you fall for it you'll be sorry when you simply can't sell a low-mid tier H'ween effect.

[Scott Bakula]

If an item crashes, it crashes. Whoop-de-fucking do.

 

Treating a tf2 inventory as an investment is just pure idiocy. These are digital toys, nothing more, nothing less. Some just can be traded for real-world currency right now, that's it. If a person was serious about investing, that's what things like 401Ks, Stock portfolios, IRAs, and the like are for, not pretty hats.

[rndmchrs]

7 hours ago, Zalkarmus said:

Burning KE

Lmao

[FP jh34ghu43gu]

6 hours ago, Zalkarmus said:

but my point is that these very high-tier hats with low counts of existence are nearly becoming worthless as the average trader will not be able to pay for them, or might not even WANT to pay for them when there are smarter alternatives. When a collector gets a hat, it is removed from the market and thus priceless/worthless (depending on how you see it) and will only sell for the same price or a much bigger price as a collection, where the cycle continues.

They will not become "worthless" * from becoming too expensive, they will be worth whatever someone is willing to pay and if the seller is not willing to sell for what the highest buyer is willing to pay then either: A) The seller actually likes the hat (or their thought on how much profit said hat could possibly bring) and will keep it until someone offers what they want or B ) the seller eventually wants to get rid of the hat and will be forced to come down to the highest buyer's price. Either way the hat is never worthless until nobody would buy the hat at all (only likely when tf2 dies).

 

Option B sounds like your bubble/crash you mention but then this brings me to the main question I had with this thread, what's the point to it? You just want validation for your thoughts? My biggest flaw with your argument is you mention average trader as the cause for a bubble/crash but the average trader is not trading thousands of dollars/keys in single trades, it's mostly the top 500** backpacks doing these trades and if they want to circle jerk prices up into oblivion then let them.

 

 

*If you consider worthlessness based on the current prices compared to past prices then I suppose having something with a max bid of say 50 keys compared to previous prices of 1000+ keys might make a worthless argument viable but unless we get crate depressionx10 or something similar to unusualifiers and gen 1 taunt effects I don't see a price drop of 95% happening in the near future to any item. - On a side note are you referencing something similar to the gen 1 taunt price bubble but happening with Halloween effects? Because like I said, unless something similar happens where the item gets a big influx the price is unlikely to drastically drop for Halloween effects as they are completely unobtainable anymore.

**Just a guess don't quote me.