Unusual Price in Buds

[F CHARLIE]

I will do this again.

 

A trader get a 3 bud hat for 2.3 buds when buds trade at 21keys. They later sell for 3 buds when buds trade at 24 keys. It is amazing to me that you do not recognize how unfair it is to the buyer. This represents a near 50% profit due only to currency shifts. This does not even address the change if trade price in keys.

 

Here is another one. Buyer gets a hat for 2 buds when the bud traded at 27 keys. They forked 54 keys to get the hat. Now they want to move out of their hat but the bud is 21 keys. If he sells the hat for 2 buds and exchanges the buds for keys he will lose 12 keys. Just because u locked the price. His hat should have been around 2.5 buds.

 

For these examples do not bring in the dollar value Of any thing yet. Lets first deal with these examples.

 

I have had 2 suggestions accepted but stopped trying because of a dispute between Vincent and I. Christley knows about it. This dispute is philisiphical. Expierience in pricing is irrelevant to my arguement because I have a con position to current methods.

[polar]

It is amazing to me that you do not recognize how unfair it is to the buyer.

 

I have had 2 suggestions accepted but stopped trying because of a dispute between Vincent and I. Christley knows about it. This dispute is philisiphical. Expierience in pricing is irrelevant to my arguement because I have a con position to current methods.

 

The purpose of this website is NOT to give opinions about what hats are worth or to argue what is fair or unfair or to get into philosophical arguments.

 

The purpose of this website is to give accurate representations of what a hat is bought and sold for. If a hat continually gets bought for 3 pure buds a year ago, 6 months ago, and today, every suggestion will still be for 3 buds and that is EXACTLY what is happening regardless of the dollar value of buds.

 

Why this is happening or whether this is fair is a moot point because the simple fact is that it IS happening and unusual values are tracking with buds.

[F CHARLIE]

I am talking about accuracy.  My example situations are not opinions.  You can not lock the price of an item in a currency who's trade value fluctuates and call that accuracy.  You are being inaccurate.

 

Again, you did not address my examples.  You want to pretend, to your advantage, that buds have a set value when you know damn well they don't but you are so concerned about not making profit that you can not evaluate objectively the process and methods you use to price an unusual and you are doing so using the reputation of this site to do so.

[Liddojunior]

How did this topic end up from buds and keys have wrong $$ values and arent correct with the real paypal $$ values and because of this we are getting wrong conversions. And the solution is lock to keys and buds or vote of keys and buds $$ values

 

To a topic which charlie is arguing random stuff and how he doesnt like unusuals 

[polar]

You can not lock the price of an item in a currency who's trade value fluctuates and call that accuracy.  

 

There is no currency in the world that doesn't fluctuate. Find one and you will be rich in real life. 

 

The point is that every item, in tf2 economy or real world economy, is valued in terms of the currency it is most commonly traded in. You don't go to the store in the US and see prices listed in gold or silver or even Euros for that matter. You see them listed in USD even though the USD fluctuates a lot. 

 

Items in the tf2 economy should also be priced in the currency they are most commonly traded in - buds and keys - not USD.

[F CHARLIE]

How did this topic end up from buds and keys have wrong $$ values and arent correct with the real paypal $$ values and because of this we are getting wrong conversions. And the solution is lock to keys and buds or vote of keys and buds $$ values

 

To a topic which charlie is arguing random stuff and how he doesnt like unusuals 

 

I have been discussing this exact topic but none of you can open your minds a little to understand anything.  Currencies fluctuate, yes, but not within their own market, only from market to market like tf2 would be to dota2.  The fact that it does fluctuate is a failure that we have to account for and do, on some level with other items.  The $20 is two $10s, four $5s etc.  U r falsely treating these like separate markets and they r not but f*****g whatever.

 

I like Unusuals but they are treated so much differently than any other item.  So many different rules, methods, principles, duped and long history etc.  It disgusts me.  Same thing with max head 1 and 7.  Gotta be kidding me.  None of those things have a single effect on the item in the current, or in its use, but no one condemns it.  Hell, there is even a thread here that discusses if sharking is bad.  Many there seem to be ok with it.  Let me rape you of your item just because you don't know how much its worth.  This "topic" is just a means for you to legitimize ripping people off.  Using this sites reputation among average players to rob them blind whether you understand that or not.  If you think that another site, with higher prices, will be so much more popular amongst average buyers than go ahead.  Who cares.  Nobody believes any price guide for Unusuals is accurate.  Unusuals and accuracy can't even walk into the same room ever.  F*****g kidding me.  The methods used to price/value unusuals is useless.

 

In case you were wondering, I have gotten five unusuals and sold two for profit.

[Liddojunior]

Charlie try to sell buds for 45$

 

Now imagine a $90 hat that is wrongly shown as 2 buds and if you sell for two buds you don't get $90 you get $80

 

This isn't about ripping people off or profit. I want the prices that were suggested in usd be right. It was suggest as 90$ because it sold for 2.3 buds not 2 buds.

 

 

Appear like you like lower prices in everything and not correct prices.

You for some reason think we are some sort of profit scum and you are for prices being wrongly converted. Buds aren't trucking 45$

 

 

If there was a site with exact same prices in usd with the correct conversion aka 40$ a bud that site will be better not because of higher price but because of correct prices.

 

This is about correcting the system and making sure unusuals arent wrongly listed all traders are losing value on hats because of this.

 

It is truly manipulation on bptf part.

[F CHARLIE]

You are asserting that the factors of demand that effect the price of the Earbud are to be transfered to all Unusuals regardless of thier individual natures. This is not a logical position. Desire for some unusuals can not be transfered to other unusuals. Understand what I am saying before replying.

[Liddojunior]

You are asserting that the factors of demand that effect the price of the Earbud are to be transfered to all Unusuals regardless of thier individual natures. This is not a logical position. Desire for some unusuals can not be transfered to other unusuals. Understand what I am saying before replying.

 

Im not talking about what should unusuals prices be, we don't price by speculation. 

 

But what the thread is about.

 

Buds and keys are having wrong $$ values and unusuals are being wrongly converted and some hats that just get suggested shift price and need to be re suggested and we don't want that. - Thats the threads topic. I dont know what you want me to understand when i'm only thinking about the topic of this thread. 

[F CHARLIE]

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2269-need-unusual-expert-on-why-the-price-went-down/&do=findComment&comment=24096

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2269-need-unusual-expert-on-why-the-price-went-down/&do=findComment&comment=24096

The problem with unusuals (especially lower tier, sub-5 bud unusuals) is that their prices are NOT tied to USD.

Most unusual prices stay about the same number of buds even when buds fluctuate. (again, i'm only referring to sub-5 bud unusuals, god tier stuff will always be tied to USD since its regularly bought/sold for cash, plus the traders buying/selling those hats are more aware of what they're doing and convert everything into USD and then back to buds.*

 

*An example, i bought a bunch of backpacks back when keys were $1.30~ USD. I still had a couple 10+ key items when keys rose to $1.75~ USD. When keys were $1.30 i was asking for 12 Keys for the item, but when keys rose i changed my price....How? i did 12 Keys*$1.30 each, found the total cash value it was worth when i bought it ($15.60), and then divided by 1.75, and ended up with 9 Keys. So now instead of needed to get 12 keys to "break even," i now only need 9 keys. This is the method used by most experienced traders, or traders buying high tier unusuals as they tend to think in cash. But newer traders, or traders dealing with low tier unusuals generally tend to value everything in buds. 

 

Ultimatley, the best solution would be to price god tier unusuals in USD, and low-mid tier unusuals in Buds. Unfortunately the coding to get that to work seamlessly is impossible to do, so its not a practical choice. So you have to look at who is the pricelist mainly targeted at, Experienced traders who are buying Burning Team Captains, or newer traders trying to buy a Confetti Coupe?

[F CHARLIE]

The problem with unusuals (especially lower tier, sub-5 bud unusuals) is that their prices are NOT tied to USD.

Most unusual prices stay about the same number of buds even when buds fluctuate. (again, i'm only referring to sub-5 bud unusuals, god tier stuff will always be tied to USD since its regularly bought/sold for cash, plus the traders buying/selling those hats are more aware of what they're doing and convert everything into USD and then back to buds.*

 

*An example, i bought a bunch of backpacks back when keys were $1.30~ USD. I still had a couple 10+ key items when keys rose to $1.75~ USD. When keys were $1.30 i was asking for 12 Keys for the item, but when keys rose i changed my price....How? i did 12 Keys*$1.30 each, found the total cash value it was worth when i bought it ($15.60), and then divided by 1.75, and ended up with 9 Keys. So now instead of needed to get 12 keys to "break even," i now only need 9 keys. This is the method used by most experienced traders, or traders buying high tier unusuals as they tend to think in cash. But newer traders, or traders dealing with low tier unusuals generally tend to value everything in buds. 

 

Ultimatley, the perfect solution would be to price god tier unusuals in USD, and low-mid tier unusuals in Buds. Unfortunately the coding to get that to work seamlessly is virtually impossible to do, so its not a practical choice. So you have to look at who is the pricelist mainly targeted at, Experienced traders who are buying Burning Team Captains, or newer traders trying to buy a Confetti Coupe?

 

 

I believe that is what Brad did.  I have examples earlier in this thread that exhibit just that.  That link is to a thread that details the precise method used by bp.tf to display a hats value.  The debate is that many feel that an unusual price should be locked in the currency it is priced in regardless of that currency's trade price shifts.  This is logically incorrect and leads to inaccurate prices.  I ask if an owner would be ok with hat being valued in buds if buds dropped to 12 keys.  It is foolish to say yes.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

When you go to extremes nothing works.... If buds drop to 12$ then the whole unusual market is on the verge of collapse anyway, and the set price is going to be wrong even if stored in usd.

 

For the most part, storing the price in the set currency is the best way since most prices don't fluctuate all that much.

[Liddojunior]

I perfer a system where we vote on the USD of keys and buds and have it convert correctly. The problem i see is wrong conversions. 

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

I perfer a system where we vote on the USD of keys and buds and have it convert correctly. The problem i see is wrong conversions. 

This is very true, BUT, not all unusual prices are tied to USD (lower-Mid tier ones). Low-mid tier unusual prices often don't fluctuate even when buds fluctuate in USD. I.e. there are some hats which are pretty much always 1 bud, whether that be $36 or $42. Prices should be stored in whatever currency they were suggested in.

 

Or, making a dual storage system (which should be more accurate albeit quite a bit more complicated). Unusuals less than 5.1 buds (0-5 buds) are stored in buds; and unusuals 5.1 buds+ are stored in USD. (I'm just using 5 as an example, but something around 5-7 buds will probably yield the most accurate prices across the board). 

[polar]

I perfer a system where we vote on the USD of keys and buds and have it convert correctly. The problem i see is wrong conversions. 

 

O_O I can just imagine the front page of bp.tf being filled with key and buds suggestions X2 - one for value in keys, one for value in USD.

[Brad Pitt]

This is very true, BUT, not all unusual prices are tied to USD (lower-Mid tier ones). Low-mid tier unusual prices often don't fluctuate even when buds fluctuate in USD. I.e. there are some hats which are pretty much always 1 bud, whether that be $36 or $42. Prices should be stored in whatever currency they were suggested in.

 

Or, making a dual storage system (which should be more accurate albeit quite a bit more complicated). Unusuals less than 5.1 buds (0-5 buds) are stored in buds; and unusuals 5.1 buds+ are stored in USD. (I'm just using 5 as an example, but something around 5-7 buds will probably yield the most accurate prices across the board). 

 

All these theories sound amazing on paper, but please take a few minutes to try your theory.

 

Let's take a simple example, and analyse each scenarios individually:

 

Let's go back in time a few months. Let's take two data points:

March 2013 Values

Earbuds: 27 keys (35 USD)

Keys: 4.11 ref (1.30 USD)

 

June 2013 Values

Earbuds: 24 keys (37 USD)

Keys: 5.33 ref (1.70 USD)

 

If earbuds was the currency, here's what would happen:

 

Blighted Beak March 2013

Searing Plasma - 4.5 buds (157.50 USD)

Haunted Ghosts - 6 buds (210.00 USD)

Cloudy Moon - 21.6 buds (756 USD)

 

Blighted Beak June 2013

Searing Plasma - 4.5 buds (166.50 USD)

Haunted Ghosts - 6 buds (222.00 USD)

Cloudy Moon - 21.6 buds (799 USD)

 

As you can see, the dollar value of the hat went up because the price of earbuds went up.

 

If USD was the currency, and earbud values were tracked properly instead of being based on refined metal:

Blighted Beak March 2013

Searing Plasma - 157.50 USD (4.5 buds)

Haunted Ghosts - 210.00 USD (6 buds)

Cloudy Moon - 756 USD (21.6 buds)

 

Blighted Beak June 2013

Searing Plasma - 157.50 USD (4.25 buds)

Haunted Ghosts - 210.00 USD (5.67 buds)

Cloudy Moon - 756 USD (20.34 buds)

 

This is the same system as today but slightly improved. The dollar value of the item stays the same, and its converted value fluctuates based on the dollar value of earbuds.

 

Now, let's take your idea here, where unusuals under 5 buds are stored in buds, and higher than 5 buds are stored in usd.

 

Blighted Beak March 2013

Searing Plasma - 157.50 USD (4.5 buds)

Haunted Ghosts - 210.00 USD (6 buds)

Cloudy Moon - 756 USD (21.6 buds)

 

Blighted Beak June 2013

Searing Plasma - 166.50 USD (4.5 buds)

Haunted Ghosts - 210.00 USD (5.67 buds)

Cloudy Moon - 756 USD (20.34 buds)

 

So what happened here is interesting, searing plasma went up in dollar value, but the haunted ghosts stayed the same, but went down in bud value ... Something like this could be even worse than both systems above simply because it would create a major imbalance where certain items may move higher than others from what they've been originally set at in the database.

 

Now, let's take a different approach here... What if we stored everything in keys instead?

 

Blighted Beak March 2013

Searing Plasma - 121.5 keys (157.50 USD, 4.5 buds)

Haunted Ghosts - 162 keys (210.00 USD, 6 buds)

Cloudy Moon - 583 keys (756 USD, 21.6 buds)

 

Blighted Beak June 2013

Searing Plasma - 121.5 keys (206.50 USD, 3.28 buds)

Haunted Ghosts - 162 keys (275.00 USD, 4.37 buds)

Cloudy Moon - 583 keys (991 USD, 26.78 buds)

 

This is even worse than all the ideas above, the dollar value is affected by a much higher %, and the bud value dropped by an incredible amount.

 

This is a "regular" example mixed with an extreme because you guys keep saying "but extremes will always be worse...." --- extremes allow you to really see the gaps in a clear way, but as you can see it's still pretty clear.

 

So in theory, using either buds or USD doesn't seem too bad (if the price of earbuds is tracked properly, of course) when you look at a few months gap when prices didn't fluctuate too much. If we'd start looking at months where fluctuation was a lot higher, like when buds were worth 22$ then we'd see a much higher gap (like the last example using keys as the currency) and using USD starts to make a lot more sense.

 

It's things like this you need to look at, put numbers on paper or build yourself a spreadsheet and test it out. In your head everything will seem to make complete sense and be perfect, but until you actually test it out they'll only be untested theories. If you want a different system to be used, PROVE ME that it makes sense with actual numbers and I'll be happy to listen. Pulling completely random numbers out of a hat like "5-7 buds makes the most sense" is just that.. completely random.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

-snip-

The problem is, bptf is based off an algorithm, something linear---something thats predictable, unfortunatley, trading is neither linear nor predictable. 

 

$40~=1 Bud=23.5 Keys=$42.

$1.80=1 Key=5.44 Ref=$1.85 

 

Same is true with unusuals. They don't all change exactly the same ways. Some retain their USD value while others retain their bud value. Because of the way trading is, writing an algorithm which can accurataley correct for all items is impossible. 

 

But in general, high tier unusuals tend to keep their USD value while low-mid tier unusuals keep their bud value. So, yes, tracking different hats in different ways leads to them self-correcting in opposite directions. BUT, having prices stored in USD screws up most low tier unusuals (and even really high tier ones...

 

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51464e5dba2536f354000010#5146510a4bd7b8405a000001_row

Burning Team Captain was set at 115 Buds, but because of the conversion between buds and USD its now down to 101.5 buds (and was eventually raised up to 120 buds, which was corrected to 124 buds by the same bud-USD conversion). 

Clearly the current system leads to skewed results. But look, even with all the currency changes, the Team captain has remained relatively stable at 115-120 buds in comparison to the USD version of it which makes it like 100-125 buds...

 

In a perfect world all unusual would fluctuate in the same currency exactly the same way, but the TF2 economy is FAR from perfect. And a single algorithm clearly doesn't work no matter how its done. Yes, 5-7 buds was an arbitrary number, a number which would need to be determined by looking at a large groupe of unusuals over a period of time (with accurate prices across that period) and then determining where that point is (which is different on every single hat). 

[F CHARLIE]

I agree the most with the current method of tying it to the usd value of refined.  Refined is the most stable trade currency (just look at the trade graph for buds, u can surf those changes), and as the largest volume of item trades involve refined there is little chance of the demand for refined to change dramatically (in terms of its Paypal price)..

[F CHARLIE]

Clearly the current system leads to skewed results. But look, even with all the currency changes, the Team captain has remained relatively stable at 115-120 buds in comparison to the USD version of it which makes it like 100-125 buds...

 

You should be less concerned with the highest tier items.  They transact so rarely that the price reported almost doesn't matter.  It could be so long before the next one is sold and who n

knows under what circumstances that will be.  The person could quicksell it for 90 buds.  Would that be the new price for a further 6 months until one might go on the market again?  The concern should be about low-mid tier unusuals more so.  I hope you see what I mean here.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

I agree the most with the current method of tying it to the usd value of refined.  Refined is the most stable trade currency (just look at the trade graph for buds, u can surf those changes), and as the largest volume of item trades involve refined there is little chance of the demand for refined to change dramatically (in terms of its Paypal price)..

Theres a big problem with the current system though...

 

With the current system, prices fluctuate quite a bit, which leads to an instability in the unusual market as a whole, which eventually affects the price of unusuals rather than just tracking them. As much as we like to say bptf doesn't affect prices, it just tracks them, in actuality it does affect prices, and has made unusual trading far more difficult especially since a lot of people perceive bptf to be a firm thing rather than just a general idea.

 

You should be less concerned with the highest tier items.  They transact so rarely that the price reported almost doesn't matter.  It could be so long before the next one is sold and who n

knows under what circumstances that will be.  The person could quicksell it for 90 buds.  Would that be the new price for a further 6 months until one might go on the market again?  The concern should be about low-mid tier unusuals more so.  I hope you see what I mean here.

So extremes are bad arguments....Got it.

 

(Lovin' the duality here....)

[F CHARLIE]

When you go to extremes nothing works.... If buds drop to 12$ then the whole unusual market is on the verge of collapse anyway, and the set price is going to be wrong even if stored in usd.

 

For the most part, storing the price in the set currency is the best way since most prices don't fluctuate all that much.

 

One uses an extreme example to highlight the points in their argument more clearly.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

One uses an extreme example to highlight the points in their argument more clearly.

 

*cough*

Clearly the current system leads to skewed results. But look, even with all the currency changes, the Team captain has remained relatively stable at 115-120 buds in comparison to the USD version of it which makes it like 100-125 buds...

*cough*

[F CHARLIE]

Theres a big problem with the current system though...

 

With the current system, prices fluctuate quite a bit, which leads to an instability in the unusual market as a whole, which eventually affects the price of unusuals rather than just tracking them. As much as we like to say bptf doesn't affect prices, it just tracks them, in actuality it does affect prices, and has made unusual trading far more difficult especially since a lot of people perceive bptf to be a firm thing rather than just a general idea.

 

So extremes are bad arguments....Got it.

 

(Lovin' the duality here....)

 

Agreed, sorry

[F CHARLIE]

*cough*

*cough*

 

My bad