Gren Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 I don't know how many times I'm gonna have to say this, but crates are completely independent of each other Opening a crate, even at the exact same time, will not result in more than a 1% chance of getting an unusual He is in fact right, the chance of getting an unusual in 100 crates is in fact 63%, assuming a 1% chance per crate. I can't remember the mathematical concept's name, but this is how it works. Edit: it's explained in a pretty simple way here: The probability of getting tails at least once in 3 flips is actually 7/8 not 1/2. This applies to unboxing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chbzsk Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Here is fun equation to play with if you like numbers. (Assuming the chance to get an unusual is 1%) [1 - (.99)n ] 100%= %Chance to get an unusual n = number of crates you open. So assuming you open 100 crates symotantiously, you have a chance of ~63% chance at atleast 1 unusual. I was desperately hoping someone would understand mass probability functions here. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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