Python. Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Players who open cases have no sense of probability or large numbers Like Roulette, it doesn't matter how many times you play, ideally it will always be the same chance Say there is a 1% chance of getting a knife/unusual from a crate. Many would assume "Hey, if I open 100 crates, at least one of those crates will grant me a knife, so I'll go for it." But no, it will always be a 1% chance no matter how many are opened. This is not an argument. It is mathematical fact. In TF2, when you open a crate, there is simply a timer then what you won. However, in CS:GO, Gaben makes opening a crate like a spinning wheel, to make it seem the unboxer was "close" to a rare skin The item is already predetermined when the key is used on the crate, and for CS:GO, it's a good tactic to make people continuously unbox TL;DR: There is no correlation from one crate to the next, and you cannot forge the odds towards you in the end My question: Knowing the facts presented, is unboxing stupid? NOTE: If you want to make money If you wanna do it for fun and know the risks, go for it. This question is for the people that do it to increase profits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
♥Prof. Sugarcube♥ Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Some just do it for fun :/ I do it for fun, i cross my hooves fingers when i unbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Julia Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Aren't there enough unusuals already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Senpai Absol~ Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Aren't there enough unusuals already? There can never be enough hats never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Python. Posted April 29, 2015 Author Share Posted April 29, 2015 Some just do it for fun :/ I do it for fun, i cross my hooves fingers when i unbox If you wanna do it for fun and know the risks, go for it. This question is for the people that do it to increase profits. Reading so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakeTheAwesome Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 I only do it for fun, I know I'll never be lucky enough to get an unusual (or any profit, really) Although with how poor I am, it's obviously not a very good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
λngelღмander Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 You're correct that every crate unboxed would be a 1% chance, that the chance doesn't increase, but it is still a logical notion to assume that, out of a large group of unboxed crates, there is a higher possibility of having an unusual than in one crate. People mass unbox, because when they do they are more likely to end up with an unusual. And that is fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MC22 Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Is gambling "stupid"? The average net gain is less than zero. However, people still gamble because they think they can get lucky. If being tempted by luck is stupid, then yeah. If you are a MLG pro mathematician that focuses on applied probability, then gambling isn't stupid, assuming there's even a loophole still available (There were tons). Same thing applies here. If you somehow decompile TF2 and have a good understanding of the algorithms used for psuedorandom generators, go unbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
♥Prof. Sugarcube♥ Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Reading so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Python. Posted April 29, 2015 Author Share Posted April 29, 2015 I answered both of these in the original post, but here I go again. If you are a MLG pro mathematician that focuses on applied probability, then gambling isn't stupid, assuming there's even a loophole still available (There were tons).Same thing applies here. If you somehow decompile TF2 and have a good understanding of the algorithms used for psuedorandom generators, go unbox. Crates cannot be manipulated. There will always be the same chance of getting something. Whether or not you're a math professor has nothing to do with it. Knowing what you will get and when to unbox to get it is on the border of impossible You're correct that every crate unboxed would be a 1% chance, that the chance doesn't increase, but it is still a logical notion to assume that, out of a large group of unboxed crates, there is a higher possibility of having an unusual than in one crate. People mass unbox, because when they do they are more likely to end up with an unusual. And that is fact. No, it's illogical to assume the percent chance of getting something in a crate goes up the more you unbox Considering math is based about logic Also, no, still wrong. Someone unboxing 100 crates in 3 seconds has the same chance of getting an unusual compared to a guy who unboxes 2 crates in an hour. Your statement is the opposite of fact. -jif- Well if you're not gonna bother reading, make yourself out to be an idiot, then shitpost, why comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
demo demo pan Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 this question is stupid, of course unboxing is stupid its like less than 1% to get something worth your wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Turn For The Best Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 No, it's illogical to assume the percent chance of getting something in a crate goes up the more you unbox Considering math is based about logic Also, no, still wrong. Someone unboxing 100 crates in 3 seconds has the same chance of getting an unusual compared to a guy who unboxes 2 crates in an hour. Your statement is the opposite of fact. They weren't saying that unboxing 100 crates will give them more of a probability; just that you're more likely to get one. Although it's always the same probablility of getting an unusual, the more you open the more likely you are to receive one. I.E. Opening a single crate gives you ONE shot at the less than %1 chance of getting an unusual. Opening 100 crates gives you ONE HUNDRED shots at the less than %1 chance. Therefore, you're more likely to get one. It's like buying 1 lottery ticket vs. buying 100 lottery tickets. Same odds, but you're more likely to win because of more chances (and spend more money in the process, decreasing possible profits). Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatOtherChigga #Mack Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Is gambling "stupid"? The average net gain is less than zero. However, people still gamble because they think they can get lucky. If being tempted by luck is stupid, then yeah. If you are a MLG pro mathematician that focuses on applied probability, then gambling isn't stupid, assuming there's even a loophole still available (There were tons). Same thing applies here. If you somehow decompile TF2 and have a good understanding of the algorithms used for psuedorandom generators, go unbox. I'm +$50 this year on gambling with classmates and +10 keys on tf2 betting #thankyoubasketballgods #thankyoucrabbinggods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrublordington the III Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 In the end it all comes down to if you get an unusual If you don't, you will claim that it is dumb If you do and make profit, then you will claim that it was worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
☾Link✞Skorpion☽ Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 It's not stupid, in my opinion. I want to provide evidence, but you kinda got me. It's a game of chance -- gambling. By stats, you can win eventually if you put enough cash into it, but whether it's worth it or not is different from person to person. If you think taking a risk is stupid, then it's stupid. But otherwise, you're just taking a risk in hopes of getting profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegoTonix Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Even you have luck and unbox unusual and get unprofit if you unbox 50 crate and get unusual 20 keys you get 30 keys of unprofit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flarezen Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 I like to unbox because I enjoy taking the risk with what Item I will end up getting. I mostly unbox for paints or high stranges that I want (Strange Awp/Kritzkreg) I guess some would find it stupid and rather just buy the weapons with pure for a quicksell price. Sometimes I just find it more amusing to use that item when I'm the one who unboxed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kai9001 Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Here is fun equation to play with if you like numbers. (Assuming the chance to get an unusual is 1%) [1 - (.99)n ] 100%= %Chance to get an unusual n = number of crates you open. So assuming you open 100 crates symotantiously, you have a chance of ~63% chance at atleast 1 unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Penguins Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Players who open cases have no sense of probability or large numbers Like Roulette, it doesn't matter how many times you play, ideally it will always be the same chance Say there is a 1% chance of getting a knife/unusual from a crate. Many would assume "Hey, if I open 100 crates, at least one of those crates will grant me a knife, so I'll go for it." But no, it will always be a 1% chance no matter how many are opened. This is not an argument. It is mathematical fact. In TF2, when you open a crate, there is simply a timer then what you won. However, in CS:GO, Gaben makes opening a crate like a spinning wheel, to make it seem the unboxer was "close" to a rare skin The item is already predetermined when the key is used on the crate, and for CS:GO, it's a good tactic to make people continuously unbox TL;DR: There is no correlation from one crate to the next, and you cannot forge the odds towards you in the end My question: Knowing the facts presented, is unboxing stupid? NOTE: If you want to make money If you wanna do it for fun and know the risks, go for it. This question is for the people that do it to increase profits. Other than drugs, where do you get adrenaline rush from? Okay maybe from dangerous situations, but unboxing gives you a rush of some sort. But in term, good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuuko-San Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Depends on the motives and factors behind it. I've had my friend waste 250 keys on unboxing, because he was depressed, and he got nothing (which didn't help), which I'd call stupid. but I occasionally unbox one or two, and people with the disposable income and the understanding that gaben's gonna fak you in the bum either way, I wouldn't say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Python. Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Here is fun equation to play with if you like numbers. (Assuming the chance to get an unusual is 1%) [1 - (.99)n ] 100%= %Chance to get an unusual n = number of crates you open. So assuming you open 100 crates symotantiously, you have a chance of ~63% chance at atleast 1 unusual. I don't know how many times I'm gonna have to say this, but crates are completely independent of each other Opening a crate, even at the exact same time, will not result in more than a 1% chance of getting an unusual They weren't saying that unboxing 100 crates will give them more of a probability; just that you're more likely to get one. Although it's always the same probablility of getting an unusual, the more you open the more likely you are to receive one. I.E. Opening a single crate gives you ONE shot at the less than %1 chance of getting an unusual. Opening 100 crates gives you ONE HUNDRED shots at the less than %1 chance. Therefore, you're more likely to get one. It's like buying 1 lottery ticket vs. buying 100 lottery tickets. Same odds, but you're more likely to win because of more chances (and spend more money in the process, decreasing possible profits). Just sayin'. Agreed. I read it as chance, not "more likely", which may sound the same, but aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kai9001 Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Opening a crate, even at the exact same time, will not result in more than a 1% chance of getting an unusual I don't think you understand exactly what I am saying. I don't know how many times I'm gonna have to say this, but crates are completely independent of each other Indeed they are, and I just showed you an equation to calculate them from the begining to end stand point. Like "Gee, I have 100 keys, I wonder what are the chances of getting an unusual if I opened them all at once." The answer to that is ~63% Opening more crates increases your chances to find an unusual obviously. but in a slow, non-linear way. But if you look at it as 1 key at a time, then yeah, it's all virtually the same. Just thought it would be cool to show the internet kids of the world your chances from a grand standpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corpfox Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ5q-DkNuM4 Another lucky kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators Teeny Tiny Cat Posted April 30, 2015 Administrators Share Posted April 30, 2015 Meh w/e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
= ocu M = Sere Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Players who open cases have no sense of probability or large numbers Like Roulette, it doesn't matter how many times you play, ideally it will always be the same chance Say there is a 1% chance of getting a knife/unusual from a crate. Many would assume "Hey, if I open 100 crates, at least one of those crates will grant me a knife, so I'll go for it." But no, it will always be a 1% chance no matter how many are opened. This is not an argument. It is mathematical fact. In TF2, when you open a crate, there is simply a timer then what you won. However, in CS:GO, Gaben makes opening a crate like a spinning wheel, to make it seem the unboxer was "close" to a rare skin The item is already predetermined when the key is used on the crate, and for CS:GO, it's a good tactic to make people continuously unbox I don't know about cs:go, but the contents of tf2 crates are determined at the moment of unboxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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