polar Posted June 14, 2013 Posted June 14, 2013 EDIT: stopped tracking. community seems to have accepted this decline. no need for such vigilant tracking any more. Avg Time To Sell: June 17 June 25 July 2 <7.5 keys 1 min 1 min 1 min 7.5 keys 37 min 40 min 2.5 h 7.6 keys 1 h 3 h 5 h 7.75 keys 10.5 h 11 h 16.5 h 7.8 keys 1 day 1 day not enough sales 8 keys 2.5 days 3 days 2.5 days Note to mods, readers. This will be a running list of bill sales only from the last week. As time passes, I will take out trades >1 week old and replace with new/current trades. The goal of this list will be to give the community an accurate representation of bill's value. If the time comes to make another suggestion, it will be a well-informed one. If you see a trade not included here, please feel free to share.Thanks ~ a blind polar bear http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12121175 - 5 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12119496 - 6 keys, painted white http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12120332 - 6 keys, painted lime http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12266281 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254725 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12258929 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12224136 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12226539 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12227315 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12177538 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12087803 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12095449 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12122261 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11869841 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12100830 - 7 keys, painted BaF http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11928403 - 7 keys, painted ts http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9560960 - 7 keys, painted ts http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11946688 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11999848 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11926765 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11920606 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11895779 - 7 keys http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9572523 - 7 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12031746 - 7 keys http://tf2tp.com/tra...p?trade=9566510 - 7 keys, ts http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12214888 - 7.2 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051579 - 7.2 keys, painted VoT http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051293 - 7.2 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12005527 - 7.2 keys, painted lime http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9550289 - 7.2 keys - pink http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12276307 - 7.4 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12277141 - 7.4 keys, painted pink http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12194614 - 7.4 keys, sold in 10 min http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12153824 - 7.4 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12029738 - 7.4 keys, painted Zeph http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051131 - 7.4 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12047466 - 7.4 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11955566 - 7.4 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11957112 - 7.4 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11941347 - 7.4 keys - sold 6 in 20 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11928539 - 7.4 keys - sold in 30 min http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11914308 - 7.4 keys - sold in 15 min http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11956802 - 7.4 keys - tried for 1 day at 7.6, sold for 7.4 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12173805 - 7.5 keys, sold in 12 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12227167 - 7.5 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12001355 - 7.5 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12119260 - 7.5 keys - sold in 30 min http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11860161 - 7.5 keys - sold in 1 hour - (tried here first: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11859552) http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9570719 - 7.5 keys, painted gold http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9554826 - 7.5 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12030833 - 7.5 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12008283 - 7.5 keys http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9583560 - 7.5 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12285263 - 7.6 keys, sold in 8 h http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12271566 - 7.6 keys, sold in 6 h, tried for 1 day at 7.75 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254582 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12284778 - 7.6 keys, painted Zeph http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12188928 - 7.6 keys, sold in 3 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12139335 - 7.6 keys, sold 2 in 2 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12227548 - 7.6 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12134035 - 7.6 keys, sold in 30 min http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12027882 - 7.6 keys, painted BaF http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12035758 - 7.6 keys, painted Zeph http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12015203 - 7.6 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12089669 - 7.6 keys, painted, afk http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12120653 - 7.6 keys, sold in 30 min http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12039613 - 7.6 keys - sold in 30 min http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12039613 - 7.6 keys - sold in 1 h http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11992200 - 7.6 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11990582 - 7.6 keys, sold in 2 days, painted brown http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11995068 - 7.6 keys - sold in 30 min http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998420 - 7.6 keys - sold in 3 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998544 - 7.6 keys, painted OO http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12000540 - 7.6 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11930247 - 7.6 keys - sold in 3 h http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11909262 - 7.6 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11896701 - 7.6 keys - sold in 2 h http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11884246 - 7.6 keys - sold in 30 min http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12024363 - 7.6 keys, painted brown http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9562332 - 7.6 keys http://bazaar.tf/trade/280057 - 7.6 keys http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9589434 - 7.6 keys, current trade http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12194735 - 7.7 keys, sold in 10 min http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12024707 - 7.7 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12046621 - 7.7 keys, painted gold http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11984916 - 7.7 keys, painted #216 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11744830 - 7.75 keys, mass seller http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12284376 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12281719 - 7.75 keys, sold in 4 h http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12250579 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1.5 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254582 - 7.75 keys, current trade, unsold after 1 day, lowered to 7.6 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12271566 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12213875 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12223025 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254066 - 7.75 keys, ended up selling to a quickseller http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12173518 - 7.75 keys, still unsold after 3 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12154778 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12170762 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 hour http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12123077 - 7.75 keys, painted mint http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12123546 - 7.75 keys, sold to quickbuyer instead http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12125187 - 7.75 keys, sold to quickbuyer instead http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12129225 - 7.75 keys, sold in 10 hours http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12128001 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/11953522 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/11979924 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12092842 - 7.75 keys, sold in 6 h http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12089809 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12094427 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12127772 - 7.75 keys on bp.tf http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11958468 - 7.75 keys, mostly unbumped, not counting http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11980031 - 7.75 keys, mostly unbumped, not counting http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11980837 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11961343 - 7.75 keys, painted zeph http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998466 - 7.75 keys, painted gold http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11957609 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998829 - 7.75 keys - sold in 3 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12006082 - 7.75 keys, painted #216, reposted a few times - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12009049 - sold in 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11939498 - 7.75 keys - sold in 30 min http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11937168 - 7.75 keys - sold 2 in 12 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11919000 - 7.75 keys, painted purple http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11898602 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 hour, painted Zeph http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11902530 - 7.75 keys, buys and sells many http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11928931 - 7.75 keys - buys and sells many http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9558109 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12161395 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12159689 - 7.75 keys http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9589574 - 7.75 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11943293 - 7.8 keys, painted violet http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12010248 - 7.8 keys, painted gold http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12011947 - 7.8 keys, sold in 3 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11955980 - 7.8 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12022362 - 7.8 keys, ended up selling to a quickseller http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12062772 - 7.85 keys Time it's taking to sell 8 key Bill's: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12255873 - lowered to 7.75 keys after failing at 8 for a day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12258198 - gave up and sold to a quickbuyer http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12258301 - sold in 20 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12258610 - sold in 8 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254965 - sold in 9 hourshttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254195 - sold in 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12253966 - sold in 10 hours for v luger http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12252659 - unsold after 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12255898 - unsold after 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12253397 - sold in 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12214730 - sold in 2.5 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12084012 - unsold after 6 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12002915 - unsold after 1 week http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12198149 - unsold after 2 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12098975 - unsold after 5 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11755950 - 2 weeks, afk? http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12270859 - sold for 7.2 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12266615 - sold for 7.4 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12290797 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12273098 - sold in 10 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12223210 - unsold after 2 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12270094 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11993378 - sold 2 in 1 week http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12235213 - unsold after 1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12274644 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12252004 - sold in 21 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12276860 - sold in 5 hours http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12281367 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12029540 - unsold after 1 week
RuffRyders Posted June 14, 2013 Posted June 14, 2013 Have you been refreshing outpost every 5 seconds to find these trades?
polar Posted June 14, 2013 Author Posted June 14, 2013 Have you been refreshing outpost every 5 seconds to find these trades? Nope. trade.tf. I just check twice everyday. Takes me ~5 min per day to do this. And it took me 15 min to gather all that proof the first time.
MC22 Posted June 14, 2013 Posted June 14, 2013 trade.tf is Swag[inc]'s gift to normal suggestions. http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/1646-bills/ there are two topics with almost exactly the same title
MC22 Posted June 14, 2013 Posted June 14, 2013 Looks like a whole bunch of quicksells Lots of quicksells=new price
smokedem Posted June 14, 2013 Posted June 14, 2013 I got two adds for 8 keys and they both bought hats in the two minutes before I could trade them. However, I purchased mine on the quick for 7 keys. I advise against removing 8 keys any time soon.
BQE Posted June 14, 2013 Posted June 14, 2013 I sold a BaF Bills for 9 keys pure just a couple days ago, and it was at least within a day of me posting the trade. edit: Just realized you can't see the paint. I can post another screenshot if you guys would like.
polar Posted June 14, 2013 Author Posted June 14, 2013 Woah, woah. Calm down folks. This isn't meant to be proof to make a new suggestion or me trying to tell people the range is 7-8 or me trying to remove 8 keys from the range. This was merely my attempt at bookkeeping. I figured I'd make it public so that people can use this data to see that bill's shouldn't be a flat 8. A couple of points I DO want to make: There are about 3-4 times the number of buds for keys : unpainted bills for keys trades on outpost. Doing some dirty extrapolation. There are about 40 buds traded per day according to finance. So ~300 a week. So a dirty estimate is about 100 UNPAINTED bill's getting traded for keys per week. If 50 out of those 100 are for less than 8 keys, that is VERY significant. If 100 bills are getting traded at 7 keys and 100 at 8 keys, I don't care how fast they sell at 7 keys, the range should be 7-8. Right now, most are still selling in the 7.75-8 range, so that should be it. But if I start finding 50+ at 7.6 or less, it will be time to drop the range.
F CHARLIE Posted June 14, 2013 Posted June 14, 2013 I made a thread about this already. Bills should have dropped awhile ago but traders allow it.
Karam Posted June 27, 2013 Posted June 27, 2013 Selling/Sold in current range:-http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11939498 7.75http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11937168 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11943293 violet for 7.8http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11958468 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11957609 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11956802 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12125187 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12123546 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12123077 7 keys 4 ref ,, minthttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11955980 7.8http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11953522 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11961343 7 keys 4 ref ,, greyhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11980837 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11980031 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11979924 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12129225 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12128001 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998466 7 keys 4 ref ,, goldhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998829 7 keys 4 refhttp://bazaar.tf/trade/276409 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12089809 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12094427 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12092842 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12006082 7 keys 4 ref ,, paintedhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12009049 7 keys 4 ref ,, paintedhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12010248 7 keys 4.33 ,, goldhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12011947 7 keys 4.33http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12022362 7 keys 4.33http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12025460 7 keys 4.33Selling/Sold for less than 7 keys 4 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12121175 5 , lolhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12122592 6http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12119496 6, white, lolhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12120332 6, lime, lolhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12010193 this adult swim set, less than 7http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12095449 7http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12087803 7http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12122261 7http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12100830 7http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9566510 7 keys TShttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11946688 7http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11999848 7 keyshttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12018354 1:1 s.panhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12120863 1:1 s.panhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11999848 7http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12031746 7http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9560960 7 TShttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051579 7 keys 7 crates (lol) TShttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051293 7 keys 1 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12005527 7 keys 1 ref ,, limehttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051131 7 keys 2 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11957112 7 keys 2 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11955566 7 keys 2 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12047466 7 keys 2 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12029738 7 keys 2 ref ,, paintedhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11941347 7 keys 2 ref (had 6)http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12119260 7 keys 2.66http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12015203 7 keys 3 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12120653 7 keys 3 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12089669 7 keys 3 ref ,, paintedhttp://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9562332 7 keys 3 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12000540 7 keys 3 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11995068 7 keys 3 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998420 7 keys 3 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998544 7 keys 3 ref ,, paintedhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12000540 7 keys 3 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12035758 7 keys 3 ref ,, greedhttp://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9567266 pink for 7 keys 3 refhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12027882 7 keys 3 ref ,, painted BaFhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11990582 7 keys 3.33http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12024363 7 keys 3.33 ,, brownhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11992200 7 keys 3.33http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11984916 7 keys 3.66 paintedhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12024707 7.66 keyshttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12046621 7.66 goldhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12001355 7.5http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12008283 7.5http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12030833 7.5
polar Posted June 27, 2013 Author Posted June 27, 2013 Thanks, consolidating with my list above. And trying to see if I can salvage some time to sell data.
Hugh Jazz Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Did you say you stopped? http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51dd496eba25368870000026
polar Posted July 11, 2013 Author Posted July 11, 2013 Did you say you stopped? http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51dd496eba25368870000026 Yeah. Point of it was really for the first two suggestions that drove the drop. The community was very hesitant to allow such a drop and waved everything off as a quicksell. I wanted solid proof of both number of sales and the time it took to sell. I think now people have accepted this and there is no need to spend this amount of time to track these things.
F CHARLIE Posted July 17, 2013 Posted July 17, 2013 Yeah. Point of it was really for the first two suggestions that drove the drop. The community was very hesitant to allow such a drop and waved everything off as a quicksell. I wanted solid proof of both number of sales and the time it took to sell. I think now people have accepted this and there is no need to spend this amount of time to track these things. Finally. I want to thank everyone that worked very hard to break this psychological berrier. No item should be so protected.
♠Derpeh♤ Posted July 18, 2013 Posted July 18, 2013 Lolol Looks like it's going to crash soon (or well reflect it's proper price balancing out in usd) a few sellers in trade servers selling black/white ones for 7-7.2 ref in trade servers and still no biters
Professional Map Painter Posted July 18, 2013 Posted July 18, 2013 Still some buyers for 8 keys, but they're becoming rarer.
Karam Posted July 23, 2013 Posted July 23, 2013 Still some buyers for 8 keys, but they're becoming rarer. They were never any buyers for 8 when bill's where 8, and when one pops up, he gets 5 adds in ~30 minutes
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