Bill's

June 14, 2013

EDIT: stopped tracking. community seems to have accepted this decline. no need for such vigilant tracking any more.

Avg Time To Sell:

June 17 June 25 July 2

<7.5 keys 1 min 1 min 1 min

7.5 keys 37 min 40 min 2.5 h

7.6 keys 1 h 3 h 5 h

7.75 keys 10.5 h 11 h 16.5 h

7.8 keys 1 day 1 day not enough sales

8 keys 2.5 days 3 days 2.5 days

Note to mods, readers. This will be a running list of bill sales only from the last week. As time passes, I will take out trades >1 week old and replace with new/current trades. The goal of this list will be to give the community an accurate representation of bill's value. If the time comes to make another suggestion, it will be a well-informed one. If you see a trade not included here, please feel free to share.
Thanks ~ a blind polar bear

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12121175 - 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12119496 - 6 keys, painted white

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12120332 - 6 keys, painted lime

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12266281 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254725 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12258929 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12224136 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12226539 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12227315 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12177538 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12087803 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12095449 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12122261 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11869841 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12100830 - 7 keys, painted BaF

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11928403 - 7 keys, painted ts

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9560960 - 7 keys, painted ts

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11946688 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11999848 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11926765 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11920606 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11895779 - 7 keys

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9572523 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12031746 - 7 keys

http://tf2tp.com/tra...p?trade=9566510 - 7 keys, ts

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12214888 - 7.2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051579 - 7.2 keys, painted VoT

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051293 - 7.2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12005527 - 7.2 keys, painted lime

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9550289 - 7.2 keys - pink

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12276307 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12277141 - 7.4 keys, painted pink

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12194614 - 7.4 keys, sold in 10 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12153824 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12029738 - 7.4 keys, painted Zeph

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051131 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12047466 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11955566 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11957112 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11941347 - 7.4 keys - sold 6 in 20 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11928539 - 7.4 keys - sold in 30 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11914308 - 7.4 keys - sold in 15 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11956802 - 7.4 keys - tried for 1 day at 7.6, sold for 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12173805 - 7.5 keys, sold in 12 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12227167 - 7.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12001355 - 7.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12119260 - 7.5 keys - sold in 30 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11860161 - 7.5 keys - sold in 1 hour - (tried here first: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11859552)

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9570719 - 7.5 keys, painted gold

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9554826 - 7.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12030833 - 7.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12008283 - 7.5 keys

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9583560 - 7.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12285263 - 7.6 keys, sold in 8 h

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12271566 - 7.6 keys, sold in 6 h, tried for 1 day at 7.75 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254582 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12284778 - 7.6 keys, painted Zeph

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12188928 - 7.6 keys, sold in 3 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12139335 - 7.6 keys, sold 2 in 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12227548 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12134035 - 7.6 keys, sold in 30 min

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12027882 - 7.6 keys, painted BaF

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12035758 - 7.6 keys, painted Zeph

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12015203 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12089669 - 7.6 keys, painted, afk

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12120653 - 7.6 keys, sold in 30 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12039613 - 7.6 keys - sold in 30 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12039613 - 7.6 keys - sold in 1 h

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11992200 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11990582 - 7.6 keys, sold in 2 days, painted brown

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11995068 - 7.6 keys - sold in 30 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998420 - 7.6 keys - sold in 3 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998544 - 7.6 keys, painted OO

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12000540 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11930247 - 7.6 keys - sold in 3 h

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11909262 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11896701 - 7.6 keys - sold in 2 h

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11884246 - 7.6 keys - sold in 30 min

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12024363 - 7.6 keys, painted brown

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9562332 - 7.6 keys

http://bazaar.tf/trade/280057 - 7.6 keys

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9589434 - 7.6 keys, current trade

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12194735 - 7.7 keys, sold in 10 min

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12024707 - 7.7 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12046621 - 7.7 keys, painted gold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11984916 - 7.7 keys, painted #216

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11744830 - 7.75 keys, mass seller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12284376 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12281719 - 7.75 keys, sold in 4 h

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12250579 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1.5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254582 - 7.75 keys, current trade, unsold after 1 day, lowered to 7.6 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12271566

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12213875 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12223025 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254066 - 7.75 keys, ended up selling to a quickseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12173518 - 7.75 keys, still unsold after 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12154778 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12170762 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 hour

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12123077 - 7.75 keys, painted mint

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12123546 - 7.75 keys, sold to quickbuyer instead

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12125187 - 7.75 keys, sold to quickbuyer instead

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12129225 - 7.75 keys, sold in 10 hours

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12128001 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/11953522 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/11979924 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12092842 - 7.75 keys, sold in 6 h

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12089809 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12094427 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12127772 - 7.75 keys on bp.tf

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11958468 - 7.75 keys, mostly unbumped, not counting

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11980031 - 7.75 keys, mostly unbumped, not counting

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11980837 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11961343 - 7.75 keys, painted zeph

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998466 - 7.75 keys, painted gold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11957609 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11998829 - 7.75 keys - sold in 3 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12006082 - 7.75 keys, painted #216, reposted a few times - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12009049 - sold in 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11939498 - 7.75 keys - sold in 30 min

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11937168 - 7.75 keys - sold 2 in 12 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11919000 - 7.75 keys, painted purple

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11898602 - 7.75 keys, sold in 1 hour, painted Zeph

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11902530 - 7.75 keys, buys and sells many

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11928931 - 7.75 keys - buys and sells many

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9558109 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12161395 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12159689 - 7.75 keys

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9589574 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11943293 - 7.8 keys, painted violet

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12010248 - 7.8 keys, painted gold

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/12011947 - 7.8 keys, sold in 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11955980 - 7.8 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12022362 - 7.8 keys, ended up selling to a quickseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12062772 - 7.85 keys

Time it's taking to sell 8 key Bill's:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12255873 - lowered to 7.75 keys after failing at 8 for a day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12258198 - gave up and sold to a quickbuyer

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12258301 - sold in 20 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12258610 - sold in 8 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254965 - sold in 9 hours
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12254195 - sold in 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12253966 - sold in 10 hours for v luger

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12252659 - unsold after 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12255898 - unsold after 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12253397 - sold in 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12214730 - sold in 2.5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12084012 - unsold after 6 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12002915 - unsold after 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12198149 - unsold after 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12098975 - unsold after 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11755950 - 2 weeks, afk?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12270859 - sold for 7.2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12266615 - sold for 7.4 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12290797

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12273098 - sold in 10 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12223210 - unsold after 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12270094

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11993378 - sold 2 in 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12235213 - unsold after 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12274644

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12252004 - sold in 21 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12276860 - sold in 5 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12281367

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12029540 - unsold after 1 week

June 14, 2013

Have you been refreshing outpost every 5 seconds to find these trades?

June 14, 2013

Have you been refreshing outpost every 5 seconds to find these trades?

Nope. trade.tf. I just check twice everyday. Takes me ~5 min per day to do this. And it took me 15 min to gather all that proof the first time.

June 14, 2013

trade.tf is Swag[inc]'s gift to normal suggestions.

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/1646-bills/

there are two topics with almost exactly the same title

June 14, 2013

Looks like some quicksells

June 14, 2013

Looks like a whole bunch of quicksells

Lots of quicksells=new price

June 14, 2013

I got two adds for 8 keys and they both bought hats in the two minutes before I could trade them. However, I purchased mine on the quick for 7 keys. I advise against removing 8 keys any time soon.

June 14, 2013

I sold a BaF Bills for 9 keys pure just a couple days ago, and it was at least within a day of me posting the trade.

edit: Just realized you can't see the paint. I can post another screenshot if you guys would like.

June 14, 2013

Woah, woah. Calm down folks. This isn't meant to be proof to make a new suggestion or me trying to tell people the range is 7-8 or me trying to remove 8 keys from the range.

This was merely my attempt at bookkeeping. I figured I'd make it public so that people can use this data to see that bill's shouldn't be a flat 8.

A couple of points I DO want to make:

There are about 3-4 times the number of buds for keys : unpainted bills for keys trades on outpost. Doing some dirty extrapolation. There are about 40 buds traded per day according to finance. So ~300 a week. So a dirty estimate is about 100 UNPAINTED bill's getting traded for keys per week. If 50 out of those 100 are for less than 8 keys, that is VERY significant.

If 100 bills are getting traded at 7 keys and 100 at 8 keys, I don't care how fast they sell at 7 keys, the range should be 7-8. Right now, most are still selling in the 7.75-8 range, so that should be it. But if I start finding 50+ at 7.6 or less, it will be time to drop the range.

June 14, 2013

I made a thread about this already. Bills should have dropped awhile ago but traders allow it.

June 14, 2013

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11742776 7.55

June 27, 2013

June 27, 2013

Thanks, consolidating with my list above. And trying to see if I can salvage some time to sell data.

July 10, 2013

Did you say you stopped? http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51dd496eba25368870000026

July 11, 2013

Did you say you stopped? http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51dd496eba25368870000026

Yeah. Point of it was really for the first two suggestions that drove the drop. The community was very hesitant to allow such a drop and waved everything off as a quicksell. I wanted solid proof of both number of sales and the time it took to sell.

I think now people have accepted this and there is no need to spend this amount of time to track these things.

July 17, 2013

Yeah. Point of it was really for the first two suggestions that drove the drop. The community was very hesitant to allow such a drop and waved everything off as a quicksell. I wanted solid proof of both number of sales and the time it took to sell.

I think now people have accepted this and there is no need to spend this amount of time to track these things.

Finally. I want to thank everyone that worked very hard to break this psychological berrier. No item should be so protected.

July 18, 2013

Lolol Looks like it's going to crash soon (or well reflect it's proper price balancing out in usd) a few sellers in trade servers selling black/white ones for 7-7.2 ref in trade servers and still no biters

July 18, 2013

Still some buyers for 8 keys, but they're becoming rarer.

July 23, 2013

Still some buyers for 8 keys, but they're becoming rarer.

They were never any buyers for 8 when bill's where 8, and when one pops up, he gets 5 adds in ~30 minutes

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