Bills

[F CHARLIE]

A little while ago we actually got a price drop to the Bill's hat and by our own Peasant as well.  Seeing all the suggestions that came before it and looking thru many trades myself it was inevitable that the Bill's would drop some.  I was very discouraged to see that a counter to that drop was quickly accepted. 

 

If you go thru the Bills trade offers, several things stand out.  A. There is an ocean of them unsold (paint or not).  B. There are many legit offers for under 8 keys. 

 

I have also concluded that there is no such thing as quicksell buying this item (1.  A quicksell offer for most items in that price range is around 1 - 2 keys under list but defenders of the Bills insist a quicksell price is anything under 8 as if the hat came out of the womb at that price.   2.  Why would anyone try to flip this item anyway?  There are so many unsold at 8 you have to sell bellow that in order to move it which is what a profit trader does.) 

 

I have considered going thru the massive work of doing a suggestion for the Bills myself but why would I waste my time as there is no touching this sacred item even tho the evidence points to the item is being sold for less than 8.

 

http://trade.tf/price/126/6

 

It is clear that this item should have a price drop like most every other item has.  Why was that price drop negated before it could take hold with the trading community?  It was and still is legitimate.

 

[puddingkip]

As I stated on the peasant's suggestion, I approve of this. Should bill's stay at 8? Yeah. Should keys have stayed at 2.33-2.66? Yeah. Should buds have stayed at 27? Yeah. But the fact is that sadly these things DO move, and it's time for us all to realise that even though the item shouldn't change in price, it does. We weren't rejecting retired hats suggestions because "they've been at the smae price for a long time". Why do so with bill's?

[Distinctively Vincent]

"Strikes me as another gift wrap situation, with it coming down to how we're defining 'quicksell'.

The votes speak too loudly to ignore here. Perhaps when there's a wider range on how Bill's hat is selling we can put in a range. As it is, 7.8-8 is an incredibly minute difference from 8, the situation has a lot left up to interpretation, and the community very clearly wants it listed as 8.

Accepting."

 

As I posted in the Bill's hat suggestion. The difference between 7.8-8 and 8 flat is ultimately a fickle, nipticking difference. Meanwhile, the community very clearly prefers it listed as 8.

 

It's ultimately like getting upset that 1.55-1.66 ref doesn't get accepted over 1.66 when the community votes against it when it's shown selling at 1.55. There's always variations around a set price, we don't need all items ranged to the very weapon. It's exactly like the gift wrap. A key flat may be slightly on the high side depending on how it's viewed, but that extra half a refined doesn't truly need to be listed beyond a fickle desire to be excessively accurate. Every item has these variations naturally, if the community is against the change, save it for when a real change is clearly needed.

 

Basically, have patience. If gift wrap and Bill's are both getting unsteady at their pricing, their time for change will come. Gift wrap is on the boundary of switching to ref, Bill's is at the boundary of dropping, starting with its painted variations getting hit. They will both see a more significant and representable difference in time assuming current trends continue. In the meantime, let the community have the price representation they're happier with. When gift wrap fully falls away from a key, when Bill's fully drops away from 8 keys, the need for change will be undeniable, and at those points there will be enough for a full change, even if the community denies it as adamantly as they do key changes. Until that point comes, the difference beytween 0.9-1 key vs. 1 key flat and 7.8-8 keys vs. 8 keys flat is just too fickle and ultimately comes down to preferred representation, and in that regard, the community vote speaks loudest.

 

At least, that's how I see it, and I didn't see any other mod wanting to handle the suggestion. If the other mods feel I acted wrongly, I'll happily stand aside during a future Bill's suggestion.

[Liddojunior]

I agree with Vincent.  

[puddingkip]

About the gift wrap: I expressed myself there before, but my main point of disagreement was the currency used. I would have supported a 4.66-5 suggestion back then, as it was correct. Now the bills isn't a giant drop no, and maybe it can stay at 8 just a while longer. My main point however was the attitude of a "bill's can't change because they're bill's". That pissed me off, as to me it sounded like the guys preferred a price they LIKED rather than an ACCURATE one. As with the voters, if I would make a backed up suggestion to make a key drop, I'd get 95%+ upvotes. If I would have used the EXACT SAME proof a week before to make it go up, I'd get ~50% upvotes. My suggestion is to NEVER look at votes on currencies again because 40% will give you a biased vote (yes, finally a key drop) or (no, keys can't go up). The proof and counterproof shown should make the suggestion pass/fail. And with bill's, I feel like the 8 suggestion (both 9 month old and recent) shouldn't have passed. The 9 month old of course from a different era of this site.

[F CHARLIE]

"Strikes me as another gift wrap situation, with it coming down to how we're defining 'quicksell'.

 

The votes speak too loudly to ignore here. Perhaps when there's a wider range on how Bill's hat is selling we can put in a range. As it is, 7.8-8 is an incredibly minute difference from 8, the situation has a lot left up to interpretation, and the community very clearly wants it listed as 8.

 

Accepting."

 

As I posted in the Bill's hat suggestion. The difference between 7.8-8 and 8 flat is ultimately a fickle, nipticking difference. Meanwhile, the community very clearly prefers it listed as 8.

 

Counter #1  That decrease is about a 2.5% change which is the same as most key price changes (1 scrap or so)   #2  Votes are ignored many times on keys suggestions, rightfully so btw, and that really pisses people off.  So who cares how much it pisses off the community.

 

At least, that's how I see it, and I didn't see any other mod wanting to handle the suggestion. If the other mods feel I acted wrongly, I'll happily stand aside during a future Bill's suggestion.

 

Why would any suggestion scare a mod?  That's just wrong.  How is a price accurate if it exists because mods were scared to change it.  Also, no one is scared of a key suggestion.

 

You also did not address the graph on Trade.tf.  While I understand some are questioning its accuracy you can't deny the trend.  Peasant's suggestion was accurate and if left in place the market would have responded.  No harm no foul.

[Liddojunior]

.8 is so small of change, who cares. I go with Vincent and say wait till a change is needed. Its a pricing guide not a pricingometer with need to pinpoint the changes of .03

[Distinctively Vincent]

Counter #1  That decrease is about a 2.5% change which is the same as most key price changes (1 scrap or so)   #2  Votes are ignored many times on keys suggestions, rightfully so btw, and that really pisses people off.  So who cares how much it pisses off the community.

 

Keys get so many exceptions applied to them that they should not be used as a comparison to any other item. But, as a quick comparison on point 1. For as many months that Bill's have been 8 keys, people would quicksell as low as 7 keys. Keys, when stable at 2.5 refined, would never see lower than 2.44 refined. The percent comparison here is pointless, keys have always run on a tighter scale. And for 2, even on key suggestions votes have an influence. Why do you think it is they're constantly behind and constantly pricing almost entirely on the buyer side? People want to say votes don't matter because they sometimes get accepted/denied against the votes, but that's completely ignoring the ever-prevalent influence they have in all other capacities.

 

Why would any suggestion scare a mod?  That's just wrong.  How is a price accurate if it exists because mods were scared to change it.  Also, no one is scared of a key suggestion.

 

You're either putting words into my mouth or reading into something that isn't there.

 

You also did not address the graph on Trade.tf.  While I understand some are questioning its accuracy you can't deny the trend.  Peasant's suggestion was accurate and if left in place the market would have responded.  No harm no foul.

 

Trade.tf doesn't indicate a trend, but a continual fluctuation around the same point over the past month. There's nothing there to address. If your concern is the value it indicates, trade.tf's use of item trades ensures that it does not offer precision accuracy in key/metal depiction and should be used in a broader sense. As an example, its median key value.

[Swag Inc]

If your concern is the value it indicates, trade.tf's use of item trades ensures that it does not offer precision accuracy in key/metal depiction and should be used in a broader sense. As an example, its median key value.

 

I'd love to know how you reached that conclusion.

[Distinctively Vincent]

The median key value has sat well below what it realistically trades for in metal in practice, the explanation being that it takes into account item trades. If I recall things correctly.

 

Rereading my statement, I worded things badly and in too broad a stroke. All I meant to get across is that trade.tf's median value shouldn't be used to dictate a necessity for change in currency to currency prices when it doesn't match what we currently have.

[Swag Inc]

Weren't you the one saying that "Keys get so many exceptions applied to them that they should not be used as a comparison to any other item"?

 

So it's interesting you used that particular item to say my website is unprecise while this thread was about Bill's hat.

 

 

Anyway, let's discuss the key value if you want to.

 

It didn't sit well below, It was always in backpack.tf range, so you're telling me the range on backpack.tf was wrong ? Because if I'm wrong and in the range that backpack.tf gives, then backpack.tf is wrong too. Or we're both right, but you got to choose.

 

Concerning the metal vs item purchase of a key, why shouldn't items be considered ? If someone buys a key with a mix of hats and metal, he still gets the key. How is that transaction somehow invalid? What prevents one from buying hats with metal to later buy the key?

 

The way I see it is the value of an item is determined from the items it was exchanged from. If you're making a rule that a value should only be determined when an item is traded for metal, then you're less precise because you're only looking at the tip of the iceberg. But let's say it's for keys and there are so many special rules that it's acceptable to measure them from metal (which I think tf2finance.com does also pretty well), and I can agree with that so we can find a common ground.

 

Now about the explanation you refer to, it was not about imprecision, it was about stability.

I explained the price staying at 5 ref so long was that many traders using items in their trade seem to like whole numbers, it's just a conjecture but it seems the logical explanation for that phenomenon that I already observed when I was testing my system before and the keys were at 4 ref. But then again, when my price was at 5 ref, backpack.tf range included 5 ref.

 

 

Ok, we dealt with keys, let's talk about Bill's hat now.

 

Here it's a general purpose item however half-way between a currency and an item but nonetheless should there also be a rule that Bill's can only be traded for metal or keys? If items-items trades are involved then by all means I'm likely to be more accurate since I'm working with medians and not affected by outliers and considering the whole spectrum of trades, not only outpost. I do not know all trades happening obviously since I monitor around 140,000 backpacks now, but my sample set is diversified and I would consider it more representive of the overall community.

 

Ok, so before I start sounding like Mr Perfect, I'm going to discuss some limitations of my system.

I can say my system might have some imprecisions for:

• newly released items, and that's the min-max range is very wide at the beginning since there's a lot of uncertainty, for example the filamental:

http://trade.tf/price/30036/6

It started with 1-1.6 key range on the day of release, then stabilized at 1 key while backpack.tf had no price for it. After backpack.tf voted a price around 2 keys, the price on trade.tf starting rising potentially reflecting a direct influence on the market from the vote. Concerning market influence, it's a different topic but, if you're interested baloo posted an interesting anotated graph concerning the strange festive grenade launcher.

• for old items not trading often, it may take longer to change price since it requires a statistical amount of trades at the new price to tip the median, however is it really inaccuracy? Just because 5 people trade an item at 2 keys above its value does it make the new value at 2 keys more?

 

In conclusion, for the general situation of all items, I believe item-item trades being used in measurement is improving accuracy not diminishing it. If to you only metal-item trades matter, then I can understand your statement about inaccuracy. However since nobody knows the truth and consequently can't compare against the golden spreadsheet of truth, let's just say that pure-metal and item-item trades measure different behaviors and both have a meaning for people and leave it a that.

[Distinctively Vincent]

It didn't sit well below, It was always in backpack.tf range, so you're telling me the range on backpack.tf was wrong ?

 

I think I mentioned earlier that the community has led to backpack.tf pricing keys strictly around buyers. So yeah, backpack.tf's key prices has been very steadily stuck in the trap of being lower than realistic, at least in terms of strictly pure to pure transactions.

 

Beyond that..  I thoroughly shoved foot into mouth and should have given what I said a lot more thought. I apologize. I'd talk bit more on pure-metal vs. item-item trades, but it's clear I need to educate myself more on your site and its operation first.

[KingOfHeart]

7.8-8 keys was the correct suggestion at the time. As soon as it passed though, people got angry and stopped quickselling(7 keys + 4 ref can take a day to sell, but some considered this quickselling)

 

One thing that really needs a change for a Bills the paint price.

I'm really annoyed when someone says Black/White bills are 10 and TS bills are 9..this is totally false.

If this was true, the 9 keys Black/White bills would sell quick, same with TS. Even at 9 for Black/White it can take days to sell...if someone is still selling for 10, I really want to know their secret.

[Karam]

allright, I am the guy trying to lower bill's and people are just limit for some reason, it is washed into their brains that bill's is 8, i try to convince people that it do sell for less than 8 but no, it is 8 because they are used to it being 8 for more than 9 months. Also, people for some reason hate seeing painted bill's when on outpost painted bill's is MORE in number than a normal bill's. Anyway if my suggestion got closed, i wont give up and i will make another one, people have to understand that bill's can get under 8 and it will.
-KMD

[Triforce of Charmanders]

Anyway if my suggestion got closed, i wont give up and i will make another one, people have to understand that bill's can get under 8 and it will.

-KMD

As they say, ignorance is bliss. 

[Karam]

As they say, ignorance is bliss. 

 

It is, but i am free, got 3 months of summer vacation, war in my home country so i won't travel, so what I do ? I keep suggesting more bill's hat changes, seems like a plan huh ?

[Triforce of Charmanders]

It is, but i am free, got 3 months of summer vacation, war in my home country so i won't travel, so what I do ? I keep suggesting more bill's hat changes, seems like a plan huh ?

Yup, and if its just the same proof each time, and you don't take Mods advice after you suggestion is denied, ill be seeing a lot of "closed", won't I?

[Triforce of Charmanders]

It is, but i am free, got 3 months of summer vacation, war in my home country so i won't travel, so what I do ? I keep suggesting more bill's hat changes, seems like a plan huh ?

Also, i like the name (KMD TheySeeMeSuggestin'TheyHatin). You're just becoming more like Long each day right?

[Karam]

Yup, and if its just the same proof each time, and you don't take Mods advice after you suggestion is denied, ill be seeing a lot of "closed", won't I?

 

You won't trust me, i knew my mistakes on this suggestion, however i would like some mods feedback on it, do they like to see painted and all that, and if they count them as "quicksells". Also, i think i will express my mind and make a vid about it and post it on my next suggestion

[Karam]

Also, i like the name (KMD TheySeeMeSuggestin'TheyHatin). You're just becoming more like Long each day right?

 

Look at the comments and see what i mean with that

[Triforce of Charmanders]

You won't trust me, i knew my mistakes on this suggestion, however i would like some mods feedback on it, do they like to see painted and all that, and if they count them as "quicksells". Also, i think i will express my mind and make a vid about it and post it on my next suggestion

Al right, as long as you learn first. I really don't care if bills drop. i see them as "the 8 key gibus" personally. And i don't trade that often, so i don't need them as currency anyway. 

[Triforce of Charmanders]

Look at the comments and see what i mean with that

Still, its provoking the people who are hating on you.Making them have a bad outlook on you and BP.tf in general. 

[Karam]

Al right, as long as you learn first. I really don't care if bills drop. i see them as "the 8 key gibus" personally. And i don't trade that often, so i don't need them as currency anyway. 

 

Just need some mods feedback and that is it

 

Also returned back for my original name ^^

[Triforce of Charmanders]

And now he changed his name to "☣I LOVE MY HATERZ♫ #key4lyfe". And *sigh* will he ever learn? No body finds this funny, I see it as a poor attempt to anger people. 

 

 

 

But the thing is, a pentagram can have other meanings, (Santa heavy mentioned a pentagram- Satanist connection) what else can his name mean?

 

1. He loves all his haters and the hate he's getting (He sounds like one of those 12 year old Facebook girls. "Luv ma h83rs <3", lel)

 

2. He's provoking all the people who get butthurt about key suggestions with the "keyz4lif" shit, trying to add fuel to the already burning forest fire. 

 

 

(Jy asks if this affects the sites welfare) He is though. by all this pointless "trolling" (i call it being an ass btw) is making people hat BP.tf because they ignorantly think long is bribing the Mods to raise key prices (Stupid i know, but still) 

[Karam]

 

 

Long is Long, he won't change even with warnings and all, he feeds on his hatred, i think he is emo or maybe as you said a 12 years old facebook girl user.

 

I was just pissed off at people being mean and all, people will never grow up. Sowwie about that