Administrators OverduePixels Posted May 30, 2014 Administrators Share Posted May 30, 2014 I would like to test a removal of the key cool down. 1. The cool down may be creating pent up demand. 2. A crash may need to be allowed. Demand crashes are a normal part of an economy at times. Elaborate how? I also believe that you aren't aware how it was like before the cooldown was introduced. Believe it or not cooldown actually slowed it down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators OverduePixels Posted May 30, 2014 Administrators Share Posted May 30, 2014 I disagree with the premise that bp.tf controls the key prices, however I will say that like buds, as soon as a suggestion is introduced, prices tend to snowball, Ie buds tanking. Thank you for having an open mind and seeing the problem. It is not exactly that bp.tf is controlling the prices of keys but a large chaos tend to happen when a suggestion is up as I have noticed now. People start to sell it from the current price up to 0.33 rec or a scrap more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space Jesus Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Cooldowns don't help, just makes the site unreliable. What people need to understand is how worthless refined is, and how extremely valuable keys are in relation to refined. In fact, I believe Refined probably shouldn't be worth more than 10 cents at some point in the foreseeable future. For keys, that would equate to 20+ ref for a key. Sounds silly? Maybe. But, what if you buy 20 ref on paypal for, say $2.00 (10 cents each, even though current paypal prices on keys are probably lower than $2. Just an example), and then buy a key with that ref? You didn't spend "more" than if ref was worth 50 cents and you bought 4 to buy a 4-ref key, so what's the issue? Besides the initial bump in paypal prices that happened, possibly due to Steam Market, aftermarket key prices on Paypal have been pretty stable. As ref declines, which it will and should continue to do so, then key sellers need to readjust how much Ref they ask for. Otherwise, you get situations where someone can arbitrage ref and paypal key prices. If a seller wants 10 ref right now, he'd probably look silly. But what if I can find Ref for 10-12 cents, buy 10 of them, buy the key, and sell the key for a profit? Most people only see things from a Ref "quantity" point of view, instead of a Ref value point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤ Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 I still believe that Key should have a longer cooldown. I pointed out why it should before, won't go over it again. Just want to add that, many people are saying that they are having hard time keeping up with key prices with how fast it keeps on changing. I created a suggestion a day+ ago, I see sales and whatnot all over the places. People can't keep up with prices. This is just one of them complaining. Read Zeform reply. http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6090-the-one-and-only-key-price-topic/page-33 Also, I have been seeing people who can afford keys are starting to complain too in the suggestions. Its not the noobs/beginner players or people who can't afford keys are only complaining, now complains are coming from everywhere. This currency needs a longer cooldown and a method like Buds cooldown. Please mod take a very close look at these and people opinions. Well whats wrong with a stock rising anyway?my point is that i just join a trade server that ppl was willing to buy keys for 8.55 refs and they where quite a few of them so immediatly my first thought was sure i will sell them but i will highball them first so i advertise my 200 keys stock for 9 ref each they raged and raged but still i sold 2 keys to 2 ppl with ease.in 15 mins or so. its all about demand if someone was selling for cheaper at that time in that server i wouldnt be able to sell but since i was the only the ppl trade me.cause they wanted keys. and thats all about it that is. bp.tfis alway and it is right now as we speak ou of date from the key price in ref ref is the most untrusted stock there is and we cand argue about that. its almost defently sure that if you invest in ref you will lose big time.so everyone want to get rid off it as soon as acquired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators OverduePixels Posted May 30, 2014 Administrators Share Posted May 30, 2014 Well whats wrong with a stock rising anyway?my point is that i just join a trade server that ppl was willing to buy keys for 8.55 refs and they where quite a few of them so immediatly my first thought was sure i will sell them but i will highball them first so i advertise my 200 keys stock for 9 ref each they raged and raged but still i sold 2 keys to 2 ppl with ease.in 15 mins or so. its all about demand if someone was selling for cheaper at that time in that server i wouldnt be able to sell but since i was the only the ppl trade me.cause they wanted keys. and thats all about it that is. bp.tfis alway and it is right now as we speak ou of date from the key price in ref ref is the most untrusted stock there is and we cand argue about that. its almost defently sure that if you invest in ref you will lose big time.so everyone want to get rid off it as soon as acquired. Cooldowns don't help, just makes the site unreliable. What people need to understand is how worthless refined is, and how extremely valuable keys are in relation to refined. In fact, I believe Refined probably shouldn't be worth more than 10 cents at some point in the foreseeable future. For keys, that would equate to 20+ ref for a key. Sounds silly? Maybe. But, what if you buy 20 ref on paypal for, say $2.00 (10 cents each, even though current paypal prices on keys are probably lower than $2. Just an example), and then buy a key with that ref? You didn't spend "more" than if ref was worth 50 cents and you bought 4 to buy a 4-ref key, so what's the issue? Besides the initial bump in paypal prices that happened, possibly due to Steam Market, aftermarket key prices on Paypal have been pretty stable. As ref declines, which it will and should continue to do so, then key sellers need to readjust how much Ref they ask for. Otherwise, you get situations where someone can arbitrage ref and paypal key prices. If a seller wants 10 ref right now, he'd probably look silly. But what if I can find Ref for 10-12 cents, buy 10 of them, buy the key, and sell the key for a profit? Most people only see things from a Ref "quantity" point of view, instead of a Ref value point of view. Cooldown does help, before there was any cooldown in this site, there would be a suggestion for keys every 15 hours if not, every day and keys were rising extremely fast then. Now that the cooldown is introduced, things have slowed down a bit. Also, before I made the suggestion everyone was buying and selling for 8.00 to 8.33 at max. There was little to none over 8.44 ref. Just as I created the suggestion, it caused a panic in the market and people started rising their price, all sales were happening between 8.00 - 8.55, before the suggestion there were little to none 8..44/8.55 ref buyers and sellers. Longer cooldown will even more slow down. From what I have noticed, whenever a suggestion is created for keys, it causes a massive panic in the market. Before the suggestion there were no 8.55 buyers in the trade servers or in OP/Bazaar or any sites like those. I created the suggestion and noticed how this effected the market. You will be lucky to buy a key for 8.22 now, before suggestion it was very possible. Seen it all myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space Jesus Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Longer cooldown just means being inaccurate for longer. If you think key price are going up too fast, then buy as many keys as you can, turn them into ref, and sell that Ref for a decent profit. It won't happen though, because Ref is deflating and isn't worth shit. Selling keys for Ref is inherently a fools game unless you can make substantial arbitrage profits, and nobody really does. Even asking for .33 ref more than "market" price translates into less than 10 cents lol, AND most of the people selling keys for Ref don't try to cash out: they try to make more Ref (and Ref is worth less and less as time goes on, so it's kind of foolish lol) The biggest slowdowns key prices have ever had IIRC, are when keys approach whole numbers instead of fractions. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ref. Everything inbetween usually climbs up steady, maybe thrown off due to steam sales or some other event. Cooldowns artificially stop this, and there's no good reason. If a suggestion is accurate, you accept it regardless of timing. If you think the site is unfairly inflating the key market, then please attempt to make money off this trend by turning keys into a ton of ref and selling ref for a profit. Doesn't happen yo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexican Citrus Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Also, I have been seeing people who can afford keys are starting to complain too in the suggestions. Its not the noobs/beginner players or people who can't afford keys are only complaining, now complains are coming from everywhere. This currency needs a longer cooldown and a method like Buds cooldown. Please mod take a very close look at these and people opinions. For the record I have 8 Keys and ~45 or so Keys in high-tier stranges and unusuals that I'm selling. I havent bought a key with Ref in a long, long time, and I hardly ever deal with items that would be low enough to sell with fractions of keys. When I get a bunch of Ref I normally just end up buying a new hat and smothering it with orange nowadays and if anything, the higher Ref:Key conversion helps me out whenever I decide to make a new set on a whim. I still feel like this is insane though, me being able to afford it is not a problem, the prices are just absurd and few people here seem to care. So yeah, personally this doesn't really affect me, but at this point it hurts to watch. Cooldowns don't help, just makes the site unreliable. What people need to understand is how worthless refined is, and how extremely valuable keys are in relation to refined. In fact, I believe Refined probably shouldn't be worth more than 10 cents at some point in the foreseeable future. For keys, that would equate to 20+ ref for a key. Sounds silly? Maybe. But, what if you buy 20 ref on paypal for, say $2.00 (10 cents each, even though current paypal prices on keys are probably lower than $2. Just an example), and then buy a key with that ref? You didn't spend "more" than if ref was worth 50 cents and you bought 4 to buy a 4-ref key, so what's the issue? Besides the initial bump in paypal prices that happened, possibly due to Steam Market, aftermarket key prices on Paypal have been pretty stable. As ref declines, which it will and should continue to do so, then key sellers need to readjust how much Ref they ask for. Otherwise, you get situations where someone can arbitrage ref and paypal key prices. If a seller wants 10 ref right now, he'd probably look silly. But what if I can find Ref for 10-12 cents, buy 10 of them, buy the key, and sell the key for a profit? Most people only see things from a Ref "quantity" point of view, instead of a Ref value point of view. I think you've got it backwards there. Paypal traders keep Keys at a stable price on purpose, to compete with the SCM and the TF2 Store. No one would buy a Key from paypal for 2.60$, since the Store sells them for 2.50$ and the SCM tends to max out around 2.45$ or so. Therefore, Paypal traders have to keep Keys at 2.00$ or so, otherwise their prices will catch up to the SCM (which is safer than Paypal trading and less effort to find the best deals due to how it's set up). Demand for Ref is definitely lower than demand for Keys, but this is because everyone knows that one Key of Ref won't be worth one Key next week, since Key prices are constantly going up. --- Anyway, as I stated before, I'm all in favor of simply not even listing a price. Just let the price go wherever it wants to, if it continues rising, so be it. Prices aren't hard to determine on Outpost. However, I know that this will never happen, no matter how bad the market gets, people will delude themselves into thinking that bp.tf is doing the right thing by listing prices with the short cooldown period they have now. The site has passed the point at which it's providing a service in this area, it's become a nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whopz Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Cooldown does help, before there was any cooldown in this site, there would be a suggestion for keys every 15 hours if not, every day and keys were rising extremely fast then. Now that the cooldown is introduced, things have slowed down a bit. this is market manipulation. any cool down is market manipulation. i can understand bp.tf don't want 100,000 kids crying to them every time their craft hats lose 1c, but this is a pricing website that is supposed to try and accurately reflect prices. keys rising is natural and doesn't need to be fixed, or cooled down, or anything. the site should stick to what it's for, and that's accurately pricing items. keys are not accurately priced here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Combat_Medic Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 In all honesty, i may get lots of hate for this, but ultimately, keys will rise, cool down time is like sweeping dirt under the carpet, it's gonna rise, it's just a matter of when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whopz Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Why do people always cry more proof? I know it has been standard in the past, but 1000 sales or 1 sale doesn't change the price keys currently trade at. Bots buying at 8.44 should set the market, but to be conservative, 8.33 still happens. No idea why you'd settle with 8.33 since 8.44 is instantly obtainable though. 8.22 doesn't happen unless it's a noob who isn't clued into key prices. Sometimes I still pick keys up for ~7 refined because people list them at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castiel666xD Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Read what Castiel said...I am not gonna sit here and argue nonsense. Who said that it should be left at that price? Please don't make up words and sentences from air. Thank you. I mentioned it might, if it doesn't oh well.... Just read Castiel's response. He sums it up pretty well. http://i.imgur.com/BHYS8hD.png?1 Im being noticed o_O I still 100% stand behind what I said. It hurts me bad the key prices since i unbox ;_: #260 keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castiel666xD Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 What Castiel wrote was a bunch of logical fallacies. 1) keys were already being sold for upto 7.33 refined when keys were listed as 7 refined on backpack.tf 2) cleverpun has already stated bots are not considered valid proof since they exist for convenience and are thus ruled out. 3) If only resellers are buying keys as stated, then that's wrong for two reasons. Firstly, it'd mean they were just swapping keys between each other and someone along the line of resellers wouldn't be pro fitting; its more than simply resellers buying. Secondly, if resellers were the only ones buying...and resellers shouldn't be used as proof, then what would we use as proof on suggestions? Resellers are just as vital of a factor as any other buyer/seller in the market and even more so since they more clearly show a medium that resellers have found that can sustain both buying and selling for very marginal profit which is often more than a scrap than backpack.tf above backpack.tf price ever since keys went over 3 refined. We could use, i don't know unboxers and normal traders as proof, but how crazy is that. Also look at any recent key suggestion, they include heaps of bots. Need to learn to multiquote more often xD Edit: To the comments saying that the "key <-> ref price is the only thing that matters" you are so closed minded it scares me. So 20 ref keys would take ~15 hats to buy 1 key? Does that sound like a normal stable economy? You all must remember, the more keys cost the more it takes of everything to buy it. It's just a fucking tool, why would you pay 7+ hats to unbox possibly 1 hat or a strange maybe an unusual. Imagine paying 40 ref for black paint or white paint? The whole premise is retarded, the ref price isn't and shouldn't be the only thing holding the key prices down. Also we definitely wouldn't have the problem with key prices if the resellers stopped being profit whores. As everyone has repeated and I will repeat again, the break at 7 ref was the most stable keys had been in a while. When it got to the point where everyone was considering it 7.33 and we updated the price to 7.33, do you think having a longer cooldown wouldn't have changed anything? I guarantee it fucking would have. A longer cooldown would 99% slow the hype of keys. Unfortunately now that there is so many bots and resellers I don't know if it would be the same as it could have been if it was implemented at 7-7.33 ref time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crossfire723 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 In my opinion many people will not really care if backpack.tf has a longer key cool-down as unless they use it as a bible, when people post keys a lot of the time they'll post it higher/at the same price that other people are selling it. This will just make keys outdated more as sometimes by the time some one collects proof and posts it, it's slightly outdated by 1 scrap or 2 but with a base currency this can turn out to be a lot on larger priced items such as mid to high tier unusuals and items. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polar Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 I would like to test a removal of the key cool down. 1. The cool down may be creating pent up demand. 2. A crash may need to be allowed. Demand crashes are a normal part of an economy at times. This currency needs a longer cooldown and a method like Buds cooldown. Please mod take a very close look at these and people opinions. Forget the extra cooldown, if you really think bp.tf doesn't influence the market, stop reporting Key prices for a month. Just remove the price, hide the suggestion history if you can. No one will die because of it. Prices can easily be determined on OP in minutes. But you won't do this, and you'll come up with some bullcrap reason as to why like "We care about new traders" (since you cant see me right now, I'm laughing uncontrollably at the thought of you caring about new traders) or something. It's the only way that people would shut up about bp.tf causing keys to rise, but you guys won't do it because there's a chance you could be wrong. But, since you won't do that, at least raise the cooldown period. This is getting absurd, and everyone knows it. Back when keys were ~6 ref Sir Jon did this experiment that you are all suggesting. For close to 1 month our listed key price was the same. In fact, he even reverted the key price back to 6 ref flat from 6-6.11, I believe (or something like that). This got quite a bit of publicity as for a solid 1-2 weeks, there was a down arrow on keys. This was screenshotted and posted on lots of forums. Did it change anything? Not at all. If anything, our listed price was ridiculous. What's the point of reporting a price at all if it's grossly inaccurate. No, we will not stop pricing keys. People are welcome to use other sources like tf2finance and trade.tf if they want. Backpack.tf is constantly BEHIND in key values. We trail the market. And, no we will not be increasing the cooldown period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baloo Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Also we definitely wouldn't have the problem with key prices if the resellers stopped being profit whores. As everyone has repeated and I will repeat again, the break at 7 ref was the most stable keys had been in a while. When it got to the point where everyone was considering it 7.33 and we updated the price to 7.33, do you think having a longer cooldown wouldn't have changed anything? I guarantee it fucking would have. A longer cooldown would 99% slow the hype of keys. Unfortunately now that there is so many bots and resellers I don't know if it would be the same as it could have been if it was implemented at 7-7.33 ref time period. lol, "99% slow the 'hype'" xD If you actually read and saw the suggestion that raised keys from 7 refined to 7-7.11 refined that I made then you'll firstly see that I'm fully aware bot buyers are not considered proof and that key resellers are a major problem: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/530830964cd7b807128b4568 Now secondly, a longer cooldown wouldn't have helped. Its not a key hype, as hypes lead to falls, but keys have never actually fallen throughout their history starting 2 Halloweens ago when they broke past 2.66 refined. There's a shortage of keys available at a lower price, so people continually adjust and simply buy higher when they're in need of a key. That's not a hype, that's simply market change. The shortage is further perpetrated by these resellers, humans and bots, that make it increasingly difficult to find anyone selling at backpack.tf price and a scrap higher, too, now. Please respond, if you're going to, with correct terminology and logical claims. No hyperboles or 'statistics' pulled out your arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexican Citrus Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Back when keys were ~6 ref Sir Jon did this experiment that you are all suggesting. For close to 1 month our listed key price was the same. In fact, he even reverted the key price back to 6 ref flat from 6-6.11, I believe (or something like that). This got quite a bit of publicity as for a solid 1-2 weeks, there was a down arrow on keys. This was screenshotted and posted on lots of forums. Did it change anything? Not at all. If anything, our listed price was ridiculous. What's the point of reporting a price at all if it's grossly inaccurate. No, we will not stop pricing keys. People are welcome to use other sources like tf2finance and trade.tf if they want. Backpack.tf is constantly BEHIND in key values. We trail the market. And, no we will not be increasing the cooldown period. Having been here during that time, I dont recall ever seeing Key prices incorrectly listed, and I tend to type Key into the search bar every few days or so at least just to see what they're going for. I dont recall this ever happening, and googling many combinations and variations of "Backpack.tf, Key, and 6 Ref, stall/stuck (and many synonyms), TF2, frozen, reverted, Sir Jon, Jon, manipulate", etc. bring up not one link regarding this. If it was "highly publicized", surely I'd find at least one valid link (I've basically been sitting here for 20 minutes now just searching terms that even partially make sense). Hell, I even gave up on google and specifically searched reddit to see if it was mentioned. Also, the convenient chart of Key prices shows this to not be the case. This is the only example of Keys going down: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/526b72d44dd7b8ab7e8b4568 , and it seems the suggestion was accepted because the previous one was not 100% correct (as stated by you, btw). The price went up again a week or so later. So yes, for a week and a half it seems, there was a down arrow on Keys. Not at all what you stated though, was not a freeze or a revert, simply a correction of a prior suggestion. Also did not last a month and was the result of a community-made and proved suggestion) So about one part of what you said is in fact true. Stretching the truth (or in this case it looks more like you found something convenient and wrote a story around it) like that only makes you look bad though, there's no need to do so if you believe you're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators OverduePixels Posted June 3, 2014 Administrators Share Posted June 3, 2014 Did it change anything? Not at all. If anything, our listed price was ridiculous. What's the point of reporting a price at all if it's grossly inaccurate. No, we will not stop pricing keys. People are welcome to use other sources like tf2finance and trade.tf if they want. Backpack.tf is constantly BEHIND in key values. We trail the market. There was also a break at 7.00 ref but nobody bothered to suggest key price even though in market they were selling and buying for 7.11 - 7.33 ref at most. Eh, alrighty. I don't mind suggesting after every cooldown time is over then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Radiated Banana Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Theres no harm done in either 1. Removing the cooldown for 2 months or 2. Extending the cooldown for 2 months, you know just to test it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castiel666xD Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 #personal attacks lol, "99% slow the 'hype'" xDIf you actually read and saw the suggestion that raised keys from 7 refined to 7-7.11 refined that I made then you'll firstly see that I'm fully aware bot buyers are not considered proof and that key resellers are a major problem: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/530830964cd7b807128b4568Now secondly, a longer cooldown wouldn't have helped. Its not a key hype, as hypes lead to falls, but keys have never actually fallen throughout their history starting 2 Halloweens ago when they broke past 2.66 refined. There's a shortage of keys available at a lower price, so people continually adjust and simply buy higher when they're in need of a key. That's not a hype, that's simply market change. The shortage is further perpetrated by these resellers, humans and bots, that make it increasingly difficult to find anyone selling at backpack.tf price and a scrap higher, too, now.Please respond, if you're going to, with correct terminology and logical claims. No hyperboles or 'statistics' pulled out your arse. Did you even read what I fucking wrote? I didn't say your suggestion used bots, I said look at new recent suggestions and they will be using bots and resellers. Please re-read my comment and realize that '99%' was my opinion on: 'the hype at the time it would have slowed 99% (magic number i made up to show how much i think it would have slowed) if it was implemented at 7.33'. I didn't cite it as a fact, link it to any proof and that whole comment was my opinion. Sit the fuck down sir, take a deep breath and stop. Edit: Maybe I need to sit the fuck down, take a deep breath and stop xD I get so passionate I become an asshole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castiel666xD Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Theres no harm done in either 1. Removing the cooldown for 2 months or 2. Extending the cooldown for 2 months, you know just to test it out Also 2 months is a little over the top xD maybe 2 weeks? Edit: For the mods who may read this, why don't you call a vote on if the users want to try a longer key cooldown and ask for suggested time periods? Who will it kill? Me ;_: ... ok it won't really kill me if it doesn't work... Just my virtual tf2 bank xD Edit 2: #resellers at 8.66 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whopz Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 i resell keys are 9.66 ref, what's your point? explain why the cool down will help anything, or is even important. keys trade for what they trade for. no magic cool down will stop that, just turn people off using this site as a pricing guide as you're suggesting it should intentionally subvert the real trade price of keys. keys will be 10 ref soon. get over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenrir Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 As a response to everyone in this thread: There are three things you never talk about with your friends: religon, politics, and the price of keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearly Gates Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Theres no harm done in either 1. Removing the cooldown for 2 months or 2. Extending the cooldown for 2 months, you know just to test it out agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTruth Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I'm not sure if this contributes to the topic or not, but: Majority of keys being sold are by "key bankers." They "quickbuy" keys in large amounts(Example 8 ref) and re-sell them at a 1-3 scrap higher rate. We count them selling at 1-3 scraps higher as "proof" that keys should rise, but why don't we factor in that they were able to buy keys at a lower rate to begin with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whopz Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 that's why there is a range. doubt anyone is getting keys for 8 ref though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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