How Has Nobody Figured out the Code Behind Unboxing?

[J4G]

I'm surprised that throughout the games entire history, nobody has an idea of how the unboxing system works. The only thing that's known is that the chance is about 1% and that some effects are rarer than others.

[RockSolidWood]

Pretty sure its been worked out, at least to a funtional understandable point. It just differs depending on case/crate. I'm talking about wears/grades/effects and sometimes patterns, then generation of effects, and then the unusual hat pool in crates, its just multiplicative rarity that is understandable but just not necessary to know, from an outsiders viewpoint. If you knew the exact way a crate/case was supposed to open how it should generate an item then the gambling component then becomes meaningless. Like card counting in blackjack. Sure, you know how to win, but then its down to (literally) the luck of the draw.

[Shelley Duvall]

There's that one guy with a monkey avatar, BOBO or something, who unboxes an absurd amount of unusuals. Surely he has the code.

[OGSemper]

[Littlepudintater]

After thousands of unboxes and compiling the data myself, I have a decently accurate chart of the percentages throughout the years. Unfortunately I am gatekeeping. 

[William]

3 minutes ago, Littlepudintater said:

After thousands of unboxes and compiling the data myself, I have a decently accurate chart of the percentages throughout the years. Unfortunately I am gatekeeping. 

weird flex but ok

[Deroplat]

I mean, outside of odds, what even is there to learn? the TF2 wiki has the rough odds on most crates that we have. and i'm pretty sure that it would be impossible to learn anything else without code from valve themselves.

[Al Solae]

30 minutes ago, William said:

weird flex but ok

It's not a flex, anyone who unboxes to that extent is a fool and they know it.

[Bananas]

2 hours ago, Littlepudintater said:

After thousands of unboxes and compiling the data myself, I have a decently accurate chart of the percentages throughout the years. Unfortunately I am gatekeeping. 

i also figured it out but I can’t say anything sorry guys… 

[FP jh34ghu43gu]

I'm workin on it at a snails pace.

 

1% has been known to be wrong since like 2010, it's ~1/150 or ~0.66%. You can find that old citation on the wiki page for unusual or take my word from my ~16000 unboxes (0.62% )

[TraL]

3 hours ago, FP jh34ghu43gu said:

I'm workin on it at a snails pace.

 

1% has been known to be wrong since like 2010, it's ~1/150 or ~0.66%. You can find that old citation on the wiki page for unusual or take my word from my ~16000 unboxes (0.62% )

 

Did you count unusual taunt in the unusual column ? (and/or unusualizer)

[roygbiv]

1 in 150 is right

mvm is 1 in 33~

cs is like 1 in 400

 

or also like 50/50 you either get it or you dont

[Alecto]

1 hour ago, TraL said:

 

Did you count unusual taunt in the unusual column ? (and/or unusualizer)

I'd say no, not part of that number
Unusualifiers in my experience seem to be around twice as common as unusual hats/war paints

[FP jh34ghu43gu]

4 hours ago, TraL said:

 

Did you count unusual taunt in the unusual column ? (and/or unusualizer)

I haven't unboxed unusual taunts bc I only opened like 10 of those crates, unusualifiers are not real unusuals and I didn't count them. I agree with alecto that they appear to be about 2x as common.

[Littlepudintater]

Unusualifiers =/= the unusual unbox chance, shits a bonus item with a pretty high chance of coming out.

[Scott Bakula]

It's not that complex of a code:

 

When User(Unbox)

      Run Gaben(Blessing)

      If BlesVal > User.LuckVal Then

              Run Crate(Win) PoolVal = Crate.SeriesVal

      Else

              Run Crate(Trash) PoolVal = Crate.SeriesVal

              From User.Table

                       Random User With (HrsPlayd < 20) OR (UnboxTotal < 5)

                       User.LuckVal = (User.LuckVal + 1) 

End;

[3.50]

On 1/26/2024 at 5:24 PM, J4G said:

I'm surprised that throughout the games entire history, nobody has an idea of how the unboxing system works.

 

Basically, you have three groups of people:

 

1)  People who are just dumb (they will never figure out a complicated system)

 

2)  People who are smart, but don't mind losing money; they just like dopamine (they don't care to figure out the system)

 

3)  People who are smart and don't like losing mone (they will buy what they want and not bother with opening box, and don't give one care for how the system works)

 

4)  Big nerds

 

So out of the three groups of people, it is only the fourth, big nerds, who have any chance of figuring out the system. 

 

And even if they do figure it out, there's no guarantee that they'll share it.

[DaVinchi]

famous unusual unboxer here. the code is youre being a cheapskate who isnt opening enough cases/crates. i personally really like EOTL crates for their insane return rate.