We need to separate spelled and non spelled unusual sales.

[Bananas]

The darkblaze billycock is the last straw for me. Really tired of seeing an insane price suggestion just for it to be a 1/1 double spelled.

 

A Darkblaze billycock without spells isnt 1800 keys.

 

A non spelled time warp Bombing run isnt 500+ keys

 

A non spelled Eerie anger isn’t worth 500 keys

 

There are plenty more examples these are 3 off the top of my head without looking

 

Setting the price for spelled sales just makes inaccurate price updates, nobody is touching that regular eerie anger at 410 keys on marketplace, when it was recently priced at “500”

 

and what happens when a non spelled version sells later like the billycock? Will it be price dropped when it gets a regular 800 key sale?

 

We need a separate spelled suggestion page, something similar to strange unusual vs non strange unusual where it has its own page and price 

 

If the spelled sale is the only sale, it makes sense to leave the outdated regular versions alone and update the spelled one separately instead of accurately pricing 1 and making the other 2/3 inaccurate af

[duskfen]

[Strife Hale]

We don't have that feature yet but leaving them unpriced is the best you can do atm.

[OGSemper]

50 minutes ago, Bananas said:

The darkblaze billycock is the last straw for me. Really tired of seeing an insane price suggestion just for it to be a 1/1 double spelled.

 

A Darkblaze billycock without spells isnt 1800 keys.

 

A non spelled time warp Bombing run isnt 500+ keys

 

A non spelled Eerie anger isn’t worth 500 keys

 

There are plenty more examples these are 3 off the top of my head without looking

 

Setting the price for spelled sales just makes inaccurate price updates, nobody is touching that regular eerie anger at 410 keys on marketplace, when it was recently priced at “500”

 

and what happens when a non spelled version sells later like the billycock? Will it be price dropped when it gets a regular 800 key sale?

 

We need a separate spelled suggestion page, something similar to strange unusual vs non strange unusual where it has its own page and price 

 

If the spelled sale is the only sale, it makes sense to leave the outdated regular versions alone and update the spelled one separately instead of accurately pricing 1 and making the other 2/3 inaccurate af

just remove the spells and the hats are practically unsellable, i would know

 

my source: trust me bro

[Zeus_Junior]

On the anger specifically:

After the sugg was accepted buy orders suddenly decided that it was okay? To buy at 275 keys Instead of 110? And scrapyard was naturally immediately dumped the non spelled one https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Eerie+Orbiting+Fire+Anger&at=2023-05-19T06%3A47%3A00.000Z 

I think it was eventually redumped to a bot at 300? Dunno. Stopped watching it since I knew, even though I collect eerie, that was not gonna go back to an acceptable price anytime soon 

[Bananas]

15 minutes ago, Zeus_Junior said:

On the anger specifically:

After the sugg was accepted buy orders suddenly decided that it was okay? To buy at 275 keys Instead of 110? And scrapyard was naturally immediately dumped the non spelled one https://gladiator.tf/time-machine?item=Eerie+Orbiting+Fire+Anger&at=2023-05-19T06%3A47%3A00.000Z 

I think it was eventually redumped to a bot at 300? Dunno. Stopped watching it since I, even though I collect eerie, immediately knew that was not gonna go back to an acceptable price anytime soon 

 

good example of what i mean by non spelled version sells later for less

 

a 1/1 hat with a spell? price it normally, wouldnt matter otherwise. the eerie anger? got dumped after a general price update. its not a 300 key hat but now its going to be treated like one

 

i feel like we have to draw a line in the sand somewhere. i see suggestions get accepted using spelled sales, and denied from using spelled sales (aces high tavish degroot for example.)

 

in the case of the tavish its more of a rarity thing (1 of 47 vs 1 of 3 or 1 of 5 etc) but we shouldnt half measure. we either include spelled sales, exclude spelled sales, or make a separate section for spelled sales.

 

a tf logo fancy fedora shouldnt be price suggested at 225 keys for ALL tf logo fancy fedoras just because 1 has a double spell and is for sale

 

i feel like the price update for the billycock was a mistake and doesnt accurately reflect the value of the other 2, i can definitely see in the near future the other active owner listing the non spelled up for a bait price to try and hook a sucker.

sales like that, even if they are the only sale, should be exluded based on the extra rarity of them being spelled, because its not a regular darkblaze billycock.

[Bananas]

57 minutes ago, Semper said:

just remove the spells and the hats are practically unsellable, i would know

 

my source: trust me bro

 

my tossle used to be a double spell until the furry that owned this before me removed the voices from below and renamed it bussy

 

kinda hate that guy

[eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee]

9 minutes ago, Bananas said:

 

my tossle used to be a double spell until the furry that owned this before me removed the voices from below and renamed it bussy

 

kinda hate that guy

voices from below hater? death penalty

[Rainy]

It really depends on the hat imo. With the recent price of the billycock, I think the 1800 price tag is more appropriate because even for a non spelled one it’s closer to the realistic price. Also the non spelled ones haven’t been traded in years. The anger is a bit of a special case imo. 

[Bananas]

58 minutes ago, Rainy said:

It really depends on the hat imo. With the recent price of the billycock, I think the 1800 price tag is more appropriate because even for a non spelled one it’s closer to the realistic price. Also the non spelled ones haven’t been traded in years. The anger is a bit of a special case imo. 

idk what ur talking about on the billycock, hellfire is selling for 800 keys and darkblaze was priced at 500-550 which is much closer to being accurate than nearly 2000 keys for a non spelled version

 

It shouldn’t depend on the hat, and we shouldn’t have special cases. It just muddies up regular unusuals vs spelled unusuals. The only real case where it doesn’t matter is in true 1/1 hats, not 1/2 or 1/3 where “the others are gone forever” and then one pops up for sale next year

 

The eerie anger is a perfect example of why we need to make spelled unusuals their own category, completely fucked up the regular versions price. It’s totally a special case, just not in the way you think.

[MopkoBka116]

Suggestions start to make no sense long time ago.

For example, recently the Frostbite Greased Lightning was priced for 200 keys (7 hours long suggestion)

 

Even there is one listed for 162 keys for a few months (and still listed on stn).

[SLIMEGUNOMEGA]

Did this economy ever make sense. Are we surprised 

[Relish]

*cough* SBTWC Pampered Pyro *cough cough choke wheeze fart clownhonk.mp3*

[Bananas]

5 minutes ago, Relidom said:

*cough* SBTWC Pampered Pyro *cough cough choke wheeze fart clownhonk.mp3*

that’s just a stupid person paying too much for a 1 of 1, wasn’t even spelled and got dumped to a bot after. Many such cases, like the Eldrich opening burning question for 1600 pure

[Foamy the Fearsome]

This is an issue that is brought up once every now and then when a spelled version of a hat sells for an exorbitantly high amount, without any other relevant data able to prove we're dealing with an outlier. The solution suggested here is much better than what people usually suggest (which usually boils down to "all spelled sales are outliers"), and I get where you're coming from, but such an implementation would suffer from several complications and ultimately very little payoff. 

Let me start off by saying that granting a stat page to every specific spelled unusual would be a nightmare to navigate. It would be comparable to having every combination of strange parts attached a separate stat page, have every different killstreaker/sheen combination have their separate stat page etc.; I mean, it would not be "spelled" and "not spelled", it would be separate for every conceivable combination of spells possible, which would give several unusuals several separate stat pages. It would clutter hat/effect overview pages with multiple mentions of the same hat, just for the sake of a spell, which would beat the purpose of providing such an overview. More importantly, it would make unspelled versions of hats unupdatable based on spelled sales, even if the value does make sense. This alone is enough reason not to do this, as that by itself would do more harm than good. Aside from that, it would allow spelled versions of hats to be priced lower than their non-spelled counterparts, which is silly, considering the possibility to remove them.

Then there's the issue of subjectivity here. You say these hats "arent X value"; based on what are they not that value? I understand that you can do tier comparisons to see if a value makes sense, but do not forget that listed values are not a hat's absolute value in any way, its a guideline, trying to reflect what something sold for, to give others an indication of what it might sell for. These hats did sell for these amounts, so that is the indicator we can display here.
I'm well aware that in many cases, this will not mean the hats will ever resell for that much again, but this is very common practice for rare unusuals if a collector decides to pick them up. In general, the examples brought here (which I'll individually comment on below) don't even necessarily mean that it was just because of the spell. I can go to some of the many known collectors of particular hats or effects to give a plethora of examples of non-spelled hats that sold for much more than one would logically expect. I fail to see the difference between these hats selling so high, and regular collectors purchases (where people often state the very same thing you state about these 3 hats). Even when they get a separate page, people might still say "this (spelled) hat is not worth X". This also addresses the statement that we should either accept all spelled sales, reject all spelled sales, or treat them as a separate category. This is the equivalent of saying either all sales are valid or all sales are outliers. A spelled sale can be an outlier, but does not have to be. The easiest way to demonstrate issues caused here is to point out that 1/1 spelled hats exist, which would never be priceable if we decide that all spelled sales are invalid. The same goes for a hat with several sales between 50-60 and one spelled sale at 200 - obviously the 200 is an outlier regardless of whether or not it is spelled, and defaulting to allowing all spelled sales would then make this hat 50-200.

The crucial error in the cases provided is the assumption that the only reason those hats sold so high is the spell. This is generally where people go ballistic so I'm stressing here that I'm not saying it is impossible for spells to add value, I'm saying that it is not by default the situation. In fact, in the vast majority of cases, unusuals and their spelled counterparts show little deviation. Cases where it matters are almost exclusively cases where someone specifically sought out a spelled version of a hat, which is no different than someone seeking out a specific hat/effect combo, and as such, those sales are allowed if and only if they're either the only sale or they do not conflict with other present data, just like we do with any other collectors purchase. As an example - the bombing run is the only one that has been available for ages; anyone wanting to buy that would have to buy the spelled one. They might not care about the spell and still be willing to pay that much more. Whether it influences one's decision to buy a spelled hat or not is subjective, which by itself should suffice as a reason to treat them case-by-case rather than one rule to fit all.

Lets see the hats listed as examples here:

1) The Darkblaze Billycock:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/60cc3e357b45db363c3c68cf it was previously priced based off of 2 sales, 1 spelled, and 1 non-spelled. These were within acceptable range from one another, implying their discrepancy in value should not by default be as large as displayed by this suggestion. If anything, the only thing the value of that suggestion and the newly set price imply is that the sale - as a whole - is very likely an outlier (or the difference is on account of a steep raise in halloweens since the last suggestion, in this case my guess would be the former rather than the latter) regardless of whether or not it is spelled. Using the spelled version was fine then, and I see no reason to treat this any different than a case where someone spends a small fortune on a non-spelled hat; without any directly countering data, we report these sales as is, no matter how high it might seem. This is actually something we implemented years ago to satisfy users' (in particular collectors') requests, as in the original setup of the site, such collectors purchases were never acceptable.

2) The Time Warp Bombing Run
I already briefly mentioned this before - based on the data we have present, it is clear that none of the others have moved in at least 7 years (presumably ~9 years, when it was last priced). Its old price is not relevant at all anymore (it was priced in buds, so the price is heavily inaccurate because of that alone, even besides the fact that the market has changed tremendously over the course of the past 9 years). These other owners are inactive, so it is very plausible that every future sale we're going to get is going to be for this spelled version, which makes it an effective 1/1 available. As said, everyone that wants this hat would need to buy the spelled version, whether they care about the spell or not. In this particular case, separating the spelled hat from its regular stat page would not really do anything since the other ones are unavailable, and not pricing it because it is spelled would mean the hat can never be updated again, even though people might simply want this particular hat. I'm also curious as to why it is only the ~500 sale that is being protested, even though 2 sales happened, which were both on the spelled version. it's average isn't 500+.

3) The Eerie Anger
This is addressed as a key supporting example for your stance, but in reality, it is the key argument against that stance.
https://backpack.tf/item/1245914399 this is the one that sold in the suggestion; the spell attached isn't even a footprint spell (which are the ones that generally cause the largest deviation (if any) between spelled and non-spelled versions).
Now lets go back to where we raised this from:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/607f04bdf393c70634108d09
https://backpack.tf/item/546194588 this is the one that sold twice in that suggestion; it has an actual footprint spell, which - if we're going to label spells based on their worth - is a much more valuable copy of the item than the one with chromatic corruption.
This case straight up disproves that the reason for this raise was solely because of the spell - if that is the case, why would one ever have sold the more valuable spelled copy for so much less? People in the comment section claiming that 500 is misleading because it was previously priced based on a spelled version are simply not doing their research; it was not raised from a non-spelled version to a spelled version to begin with (it was actually raised from a more valuable spelled version to a lesser valuable spelled version, comparable to a raise based on a dupe).
The entire case with the one being dumped after is something that would also have happened if this had been a non-spelled copy as well; assuming that only happened because of the spell here has proven to be jumping the gun. The same goes for the assumption that it does not sell now only because the other one was spelled; if I had a nickel for every regular case that does not involve spells at all, where a hat struggled to sell below what someone paid for it more recent than in the anger case, I could probably buy a very nice car from that.

In summary:
Implementing a rule that separates the prices from spelled unusuals from their non-spelled counterpart might sound nice for a few niche cases, but it is a decision that would ultimately do more harm than good. Aside from this, the niche cases provided here are not necessarily good examples; from these examples, only the billycock case is one that even remotely comes close to being such a case, and even there, the fact that spelled/nonspelled were so close together in the past suggests the sale being an outlier altogether much more than it would suggest spells triple the value.
Note that all of this is only from my (price suggestion-oriented) point of view, and it is not even taking into consideration the implementation difficulty for our devs. I am not knowledgeable about that aspect of the site, so I have no idea if that would pose any further issues.

[Zeus_Junior]

 I feel like this conversation should drop the thought of seperating them on the site and continue without that idea, because we all know that's just not happening.

 

10 hours ago, Foamy the Fearsome said:

In fact, in the vast majority of cases, unusuals and their spelled counterparts show little deviation

Unusuals with voices from below are not an example of footprints and other possibly matching spells. This shouldn't really be about just any spell and exceptions should be made

 

10 hours ago, Foamy the Fearsome said:

The Eerie Anger
the spell attached isn't even a footprint spell (which are the ones that generally cause deviation (if any) between spelled and non-spelled versions).

it has an actual footprint spell, which - if we're going to label spells based on their worth - is a much more valuable copy of the item than the one with chromatic corruption.

That is just entirely incorrect in this case. Chromatic on an eerie hat with a large paint region...

 

[Foamy the Fearsome]

But the entire topic of the post is that separation, so continuing without it would be futile. I only came here to address that topic and to explain why we treat spelled sales the way we do in the process, as it was brought to my attention by another price moderator.

 

10 hours ago, Zeus_Junior said:

That is just entirely incorrect in this case. Chromatic on an eerie hat with a large paint region...

 

Is it? In all the years of trading/dealing with these (on both unusuals as well as regular cosmetics) I don't think Ive ever once seen any of the paints come any close to any of the footprint spells (in terms of average added value/selling potential) on any item, regardless of paint region, let alone to (one of) the generally most liked one(s) that even matches the effect.

Taking a look at the classified listings on spelled angers would support as well; on both strange and non-strange, chromatic is available much cheaper than the footprint ones. I am aware that they're just sellers; it just serves as a supportive argument.

But even if we assume for a moment that they would be on the same tier, the base of the argument still stands; the fact that the spell applied to the previous suggestion's one is the most favored one was just an added bonus that helps strengthen an already solid argument.

[edit]
I added something I just noticed missing in the sentence (to specify i mean they generally cause the largest deviation, not that they are the only ones that can cause deviation), in case that was the source of the confusion

[Bananas]

I’ll preface this by saying I’m not arguing with you, and I agree making a separate spell page for every unusual would be a nightmare and cause a ton of headaches. 2 things though:

 

On 10/14/2023 at 5:40 PM, Foamy the Fearsome said:

You say these hats "arent X value"; based on what are they not that value?

 

On 10/14/2023 at 5:40 PM, Foamy the Fearsome said:

I'm well aware that in many cases, this will not mean the hats will ever resell for that much again

Based on the fact that we both know the majority of the time, a non spell will hit the market again for cheaper than a double spell, especially if the price was dramatically raised due to the spell. As much as we want to pretend, if a non spelled regular time warp bombing run hit the market for 600 keys, who would be the buyer? There’s better, cheaper time warps for scout

 

On 10/14/2023 at 5:40 PM, Foamy the Fearsome said:

it has an actual footprint spell, which - if we're going to label spells based on their worth - is a much more valuable copy of the item than the one with chromatic corruption.

Going to agree to disagree with you here. On some items footprints are worth more, but from my experience paint spells have ALWAYS reigned supreme.

 

Take my Tossle cap for example, burning flames. One with Team spirit footprints struggled to sell at market price (250), the other corpse grey footprints unsold after 100 key drop over 5 months

 

if a spectral burning Tossle hit the market, literally 0 doubt it would be gone in a week at 500 pure

 

You have access to the stats so at the end of the day you see what gets sold for what, but I have never ever considered paying more for footprints than something like chromatic, even if sellers are listing for higher.

 

 

None of it really matters because like you said, these are just suggestions to give an idea of what an item is worth, not a set in stone price

[Bananas]

On 10/14/2023 at 5:40 PM, Foamy the Fearsome said:

the fact that spelled/nonspelled were so close together in the past suggests the sale being an outlier altogether much more than it would suggest spells triple the value.

One more thing, I think this is less of an outlier and more of an observation of a new trend. The top backpacks tend to follow the leader so to speak, so right now spells are SUPER HOT when years ago they weren’t as hot.

 

It’s trendy to be wealthy and show it by paying 4x for a chromatic horseshoes god tier, just like how god tier miscs are flaunted, or super rare war paints, or god tier effects. 
 

Like just a few years ago the WHOLE market was a lot different. 200 keys for 13th hour company man, 900 for arcana all classes, bonzos for 100s and not 1000s