Mr. Bucket Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 There is little doubt now that crate series #25 and under drop first generation effects without fail. The majority of people are unaware of this however, and most choose to unbox crates higher than series #25. This principle is why most unusuals unboxed nowadays posses a third generation effect, the most common effect from newer series. What if a similar concept is true to Halloween effects? Looking at any hat released between the 2012 Halloween update and the 2013 Halloween update (so no Halloween variants exist beforehand), it is observable that third generation Halloween effects (Arcana, Spellbound, Hellfire, Darkblaze, Demonflame, Something Burning This Way Comes, Poisoned Shadows, and Chiroptera Venenata) heavily outnumber older Halloween effects. Here are some sample hats: Green will signify a first generation effect Blue will signify a second generation effect Red will signify a third generation effect Brotherhood of Arms: http://backpack.tf/unusuals/Brotherhood%20of%20Arms 4 Poisoned Shadows 3 Something Burning This Way Comes 3 Demonflame 2 Darkblaze 2 Hellfire 0 Cloudy Moon, Eerie Orbiting Fire, Flaming Lantern, Cauldron Bubbles, Knifestorm, Misty Skull, Harvest Moon, It's A Secret To Everybody, Stormy 13th Hour, Chiroptera Venenata, Arcana, and Spellbound Das Gutenkutteharen: http://backpack.tf/unusuals/Das%20Gutenkutteharen 6 Something Burning This Way Comes 2 Chiroptera Venenata 2 Hellfire 2 Poisoned Shadows 1 Darkblaze 1 Demonflame 1 Arcana 1 Spellbound 0 Cloudy Moon, Eerie Orbiting Fire, Flaming Lantern, Cauldron Bubbles , Knifestorm, Misty Skull, Harvest Moon, It's A Secret To Everybody, and Stormy 13th Hour Harmburg: http://backpack.tf/unusuals/Harmburg 3 Poisoned Shadows 2 Demonflame 2 Chiroptera Venenata 2 Hellfire 2 Spellbound 0 Cloudy Moon, Eerie Orbiting Fire, Flaming Lantern, Cauldron Bubbles, Knifestorm, Misty Skull, Harvest Moon, It's A Secret To Everybody, Stormy 13th Hour, Chiroptera Venenata, Arcana, Darkblaze, and Something Burning This Way Comes Black Watch: http://backpack.tf/unusuals/Black%20Watch 3 Arcana 2 Demonflame 2 Darkblaze 1 Poisoned Shadows 2 Spellbound 1 Eerie Orbiting Fire 0 Cloudy Moon, Flaming Lantern, Cauldron Bubbles , Knifestorm, Misty Skull, Harvest Moon, It's A Secret To Everybody, Stormy 13th Hour, Chiroptera Venenata, Something Burning This Way Comes, and Hellfire Cotton Head: http://backpack.tf/unusuals/Cotton%20Head 3 Demonflame 2 Chiroptera Venenata 2 Something Burning This Way Comes 1 Spellbound 1 Hellfire 0 Cloudy Moon, Eerie Orbiting Fire, Flaming Lantern, Cauldron Bubbles, Knifestorm, Misty Skull, Harvest Moon, It's A Secret To Everybody, Stormy 13th Hour, Arcana, Darkblaze, and Poisoned Shadows The pattern is quite noticeable, new effects reign supreme over the old ones. Like regular could effects, could the effect unboxed have any connection to the crate series opened? This would explain why new effects are noticeably more common now as opposed to the old, as people generally open newer series more often. If it is true, what crate would be the cut-off, like series #25 is? It could just be a greater chance to unbox new effects overall, but I wouldn't be surprised if Valve mixed up the chances, just like they did on the normal effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatOtherChigga #Mack Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Most serious Bucket thread/post I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminal Inhalation Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The fuck? Bucket are you okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slocumruls Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I believe the answer is yes Halloween effects are tied to the particular Halloween crates. Although I can't say with 100% certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/4802-halloween-unbox-rate/ late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Radiated Banana Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Pretty sure halloween effects are tied to the designated crate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well they even said that the old effects are unboxable but with a lesser chance. You also need a bigger sample size than 4 hats. I think it's around 1/9, 1 old effect and 9 new one.~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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