Gladiator.tf fallout, site donations

[LaughingLollipop]

Plenty of chatter and discussion on the impact of this to unusual pricing/desperation selling/individual losses.

But I got to thinking, what about the services the bots were using? I haven't seen this angle on the implosion explored.

 

Hey, these bots were paying for classifieds listing counts and bump times right? How much? How large of a fraction did they represent?

And for those of us who are curious there happens to be a donations leaderboard https://backpack.tf/top/donators

 

For simplicity, the following results use donation numbers truncated to whole dollars, I've rounded to thousands in calculations.

 

Resulting Data

 

1. Out of the top 99 donors all time, 60 were gladiator.tf bots.
2. Those 60 gladiator.tf bots donated a sum total of $60,000
3. That $60,000 in gladiator.tf bot donations represents 23.5% of all donations the site has ever received.
4. I identified a further 22 accounts that are also bots (but not gladiator.tf) accounting for a further $21,000 in donations
5. This leaves a maximum (some were private and 1 was a deleted account) of 17 non-bot top 99 donors; their sum total donations are $13500

          I did not label dual use (IE play + tf2automatic) accounts as bots; a few of the 17 are definitely at least partially bots

 

Further thoughts

 

There are obviously more gladiator bots lost than those in the top list, I couldn't determine a way to find/quantify their donations.

 

Another interesting linkage is that donations give a slot for every 20 cents, but this is doubled if you are also premium.

Therefore from a cost effectiveness perspective, most (if not all) of these gladiator bots were also premium subs.

 

Analysis is limited by a lack of data on the other 250ish gladiator bots in operation (plus unused bots), but it does show a floor of their impact.

There are obviously missing data points of bots that donated and are not top 99.

 

The gladiator.tf implosion seems likely to reduce cashflow to bp.tf in the form of donations/premium subs.

Depending on when/how popular replacement option(s) become there may be a minimal gap.

 

More speculative analysis

Gladiator.tf launched Nov 9 2020

Shockingly, wayback has the donor page for that day. Total donations to this site were $114,000

https://web.archive.org/web/20201109182947/https://backpack.tf/top/donators

 

Today donations are $255,000

 

950 days since Gladiator.tf Nov 9 launch equates to average donations of $156.7/day in total.

Assuming minimal Gladiator.tf contributions before then (I checked Sep 27th and its off ~$3k) during these last 950 days the top 60 gladiator.tf bots accounted for 40% of site donations ($63/day)

Bots (Gladiator and not) not in the top 99 surely contributed more, but I cannot quantify.

 

Disclosure

Author has no professional relationship with backpack.tf, gladiator.tf, any other tf2 3rd party website or Valve (obviously lmao).

Author has never used gladiator.tf bot service.

Author uses backpack.tf publicly available functions.

Author trades quite a lot and is not a fan of bots. (Tried to be objective and data driven above but hey, you can judge the data for yourself)

 

 

TL:DR

Gladiator.tf's demise will dramatically reduce donations to backpack.tf in the near term. Other bot site(s) coming on line might fill the void.

Site donations are dominated by bots over the last 3ish years.

But really, read it, its good data.

[eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee]

geel (or whomever is behind all this) panic selling the site to a mega corporation when

[RussellSproutz]

 

2 hours ago, LaughingLollipop said:

Plenty of chatter and discussion on the impact of this to unusual pricing/desperation selling/individual losses.

But I got to thinking, what about the services the bots were using? I haven't seen this angle on the implosion explored.

 

Hey, these bots were paying for classifieds listing counts and bump times right? How much? How large of a fraction did they represent?

And for those of us who are curious there happens to be a donations leaderboard https://backpack.tf/top/donators

 

For simplicity, the following results use donation numbers truncated to whole dollars, I've rounded to thousands in calculations.

 

Resulting Data

 

1. Out of the top 99 donors all time, 60 were gladiator.tf bots.
2. Those 60 gladiator.tf bots donated a sum total of $60,000
3. That $60,000 in gladiator.tf bot donations represents 23.5% of all donations the site has ever received.
4. I identified a further 22 accounts that are also bots (but not gladiator.tf) accounting for a further $21,000 in donations
5. This leaves a maximum (some were private and 1 was a deleted account) of 17 non-bot top 99 donors; their sum total donations are $13500

          I did not label dual use (IE play + tf2automatic) accounts as bots; a few of the 17 are definitely at least partially bots

 

Further thoughts

 

There are obviously more gladiator bots lost than those in the top list, I couldn't determine a way to find/quantify their donations.

 

Another interesting linkage is that donations give a slot for every 20 cents, but this is doubled if you are also premium.

Therefore from a cost effectiveness perspective, most (if not all) of these gladiator bots were also premium subs.

 

Analysis is limited by a lack of data on the other 250ish gladiator bots in operation (plus unused bots), but it does show a floor of their impact.

There are obviously missing data points of bots that donated and are not top 99.

 

The gladiator.tf implosion seems likely to reduce cashflow to bp.tf in the form of donations/premium subs.

Depending on when/how popular replacement option(s) become there may be a minimal gap.

 

More speculative analysis

Gladiator.tf launched Nov 9 2020

Shockingly, wayback has the donor page for that day. Total donations to this site were $114,000

https://web.archive.org/web/20201109182947/https://backpack.tf/top/donators

 

Today donations are $255,000

 

950 days since Gladiator.tf Nov 9 launch equates to average donations of $156.7/day in total.

Assuming minimal Gladiator.tf contributions before then (I checked Sep 27th and its off ~$3k) during these last 950 days the top 60 gladiator.tf bots accounted for 40% of site donations ($63/day)

Bots (Gladiator and not) not in the top 99 surely contributed more, but I cannot quantify.

 

Disclosure

Author has no professional relationship with backpack.tf, gladiator.tf, any other tf2 3rd party website or Valve (obviously lmao).

Author has never used gladiator.tf bot service.

Author uses backpack.tf publicly available functions.

Author trades quite a lot and is not a fan of bots. (Tried to be objective and data driven above but hey, you can judge the data for yourself)

 

 

TL:DR

Gladiator.tf's demise will dramatically reduce donations to backpack.tf in the near term. Other bot site(s) coming on line might fill the void.

Site donations are dominated by bots over the last 3ish years.

But really, read it, its good data.

This is really good information. Kudos on sharing the data. 

[Bananas]

2 hours ago, LaughingLollipop said:

TL:DR

Gladiator.tf's demise will dramatically reduce donations to backpack.tf in the near term. Other bot site(s) coming on line might fill the void.

Site donations are dominated by bots over the last 3ish years.

But really, read it, its good data.

 

lol bots were doing the heavy lifting on everything huh

[Juicepar]

7 minutes ago, Bananas said:

 

lol bots were doing the heavy lifting on everything huh

Well they did a lot in terms of donations to the site yea.

[Bananas]

31 minutes ago, Juicepar said:

Well they did a lot in terms of donations to the site yea.

they did the donating

and all the buying

and the selling

and automated the listings

 

hell short of them joining your server in game there is nothing they weren’t doing. tf2s economy was an automated corpse trudging along lol

[Pollen]

1 hour ago, Bananas said:

they did the donating

and all the buying

and the selling

and automated the listings

 

hell short of them joining your server in game there is nothing they weren’t doing. tf2s economy was an automated corpse trudging along lol

Does marketplace.tf not exist then? Because I'm pretty sure all of those listings are users setting their prices, and I'm pretty sure their volume of sales is higher than any other TF2 website's.

5000 keys daily, per 31 days is $277,450 usd, in sales monthly, that's only in keys. Unless you mean to say bots are buying and selling every one of those keys, while simultaneously giving 10% to Marketplace.tf every time?

There are definitely still users doing buying and selling, maybe not the exact items you're thinking of, but TF2's economy still has organic buyers and sellers, obviously not everyone is an automated investment bot.

The TF2 economy is extremely top heavy, so generally it would make sense that ~100 accounts would control most of the supply, there simply isn't enough non-investors to have that large of an impact.

[Wsdea]

Here is a list of all the gladiator bots from may 18th, have fun
 

		76561197982603199,76561199004799979,76561199004803157,76561199005011487,76561199004804771,76561199028972562,76561199029736015,76561199046064612,76561199028930001,76561199098694108,76561199098607786,76561199098551306,76561199098725833,76561199099101053,76561199098870535,76561199099031605,76561199100482706,76561199100311516,76561199100430804,76561199100160026,76561199100585966,76561199100906514,76561199100748551,76561199101318752,76561199101172467,76561199101633918,76561199101522544,76561199101483088,76561199101442624,76561199101286685,76561199101508611,76561199101610228,76561199101484822,76561199101731701,76561199101711836,76561199102199351,76561199102484726,76561199102508208,76561199102451836,76561199102430997,76561199102293482,76561199102396250,76561199102237820,76561199102539721,76561199102407070,76561199102777012,76561199102926014,76561199102931867,76561199103801420,76561199104062430,76561199103991885,76561199104020413,76561199103817606,76561199103740298,76561199103818277,76561199104246077,76561199104298973,76561199104457222,76561199104202098,76561199104474431,76561199106874758,76561199106931116,76561199106867225,76561199107477542,76561199107857482,76561199107865875,76561199107627144,76561199108134313,76561199111082769,76561199110681797,76561199110917829,76561199111291055,76561199111354228,76561199111328080,76561199111292616,76561199111664710,76561199111556258,76561199111648936,76561199111658162,76561199111470451,76561199111821100,76561199112127729,76561199111970399,76561199112522018,76561199112557945,76561199113770227,76561199113821000,76561199113837488,76561199113899944,76561199115787417,76561199116198115,76561199115802552,76561199116030590,76561199116178047,76561199117306150,76561199117276571,76561199117243585,76561199118229984,76561199108256882,76561199108309959,76561199118200231,76561199119528477,76561199119313697,76561199119288933,76561199119392127,76561199119559575,76561199119221097,76561199119495038,76561199119132244,76561199119416177,76561199119484218,76561199124175531,76561199124947178,76561199125269570,76561199125443371,76561199125216939,76561199125108615,76561199124965533,76561199125348079,76561199125237893,76561199125343903,76561199127484024,76561199127665709,76561199127652476,76561199127360020,76561199127409503,76561199127926612,76561199127773728,76561199127594461,76561199127801587,76561199128182851,76561199128560410,76561199128620418,76561199128859503,76561199132296848,76561199132184792,76561199132199586,76561199132157247,76561199132198012,76561198384492634,76561199131929175,76561199132665029,76561199132627345,76561199132607536,76561199132397846,76561199135952616,76561199136027462,76561198847672167,76561199139201343,76561199136171109,76561199139085248,76561199139034449,76561199177132803,76561199176864867,76561199177971736,76561199177440925,76561199177065068,76561199177136435,76561199177561031,76561199177950445,76561199177658263,76561199177642890,76561199183261137,76561199183892084,76561199183541107,76561199186627182,76561199186313766,76561199186561021,76561199186234217,76561199186204895,76561199186541168,76561199187383421,76561199189522007,76561199189260811,76561199189717419,76561199189814852,76561199189624412,76561199189722140,76561199189458038,76561199189560763,76561199189525766,76561199192088525,76561199191922181,76561199191737575,76561199191939719,76561199193412191,76561199192618979,76561199192605815,76561199192607141,76561199192688543,76561199192673632,76561199195232936,76561199194742080,76561199195396305,76561199195213049,76561199195473203,76561199195500631,76561199195259806,76561199197624825,76561199197771978,76561199197262397,76561199198828064,76561199199754985,76561199199519862,76561199199418911,76561199199531944,76561199199352041,76561199199747687,76561199199711319,76561199199293334,76561199199136084,76561199199450040,76561199202403967,76561199202090646,76561199202230937,76561199202119133,76561199202000000,76561199202139954,76561199202392924,76561199202110112,76561199202208101,76561199202926610,76561199202977787,76561199203332862,76561199203355184,76561199203012784,76561199202848205,76561199203463797,76561199203031213,76561199203269599,76561199202787976,76561199217464097,76561199216835040,76561199217300259,76561199217126423,76561199216794848,76561199218655033,76561199218633937,76561199218338009,76561199219065609,76561199218231854,76561199219904980,76561199219838178,76561199220047440,76561199219758482,76561199220039423,76561199220613277,76561199219974937,76561199220286165,76561199220022021,76561199235913312,76561199235746160,76561199235630941,76561199235704407,76561199236209421,76561199235892760,76561199235932842,76561199272632371,76561199305746616,76561199305838162,76561199307374254,76561199307271200,76561199307322390,76561199380878926,76561199380991878,76561199387315539,76561199387640242,76561199387670448,76561199387157884,76561199387418792,76561199389145645,76561199389133702,76561199388936281,76561199389236942,76561199307313218,76561199381088219,76561199389037870,76561199389217871,76561199389189312,76561199389600495,76561199388791166,76561199389372563,76561199389060186,76561199389239431,76561199389177052,76561199388878812,76561199388676765,76561199389436924,76561199388971361,76561199389215158,76561199389182144,76561199389327569,76561199389163351,76561199389083364,76561199389217186,76561199389100319,76561199389261088,76561199389086812,76561199389274250,76561199389783904,76561199389549498,76561199389737851,76561199389459475,76561199389777392,76561199389742592,76561199389357225,76561199389727286

[Baloo]

1 hour ago, Wsdea said:

Here is a list of all the gladiator bots from may 18th, have fun <removed>

 

I love how this made my browser extend forever

[karma miguel]

2 hours ago, Baloo said:

 

I love how this made my browser extend forever

How do I make this my signature? I want to be back in 2014

[yellowknives]

10 hours ago, Bananas said:

they did the donating

and all the buying

and the selling

and automated the listings

 

hell short of them joining your server in game there is nothing they weren’t doing. tf2s economy was an automated corpse trudging along lol

 

There's still an end-user behind each and every bot. To suggest that the tf2 economy is an automated corpse is disingenuous. I dislike bot trading as much as every other person but it's hard to argue about these services providing value for those who ran/rented the aforementioned bots. We should also consider that people might not be down to sit down and barter with another user on a consistent basis which contributed to the popularity of the service.

[Smartieshehe]

I don't see how is that bad for backpack.tf, since those bots would been usually recycled anyway and no new donations would have to be made to get listings. But now if people want to make more listings they have to donate again. Also backpack.tf is just a good way to funnel people in to their actual money makers which is mp.tf and scrap.tf. Also less bots and buy orders likely means that it likely increases traffic on scrap.tf.

[AwesomeSause]

1 hour ago, Smartieshehe said:

I don't see how is that bad for backpack.tf, since those bots would been usually recycled anyway and no new donations would have to be made to get listings. But now if people want to make more listings they have to donate again. Also backpack.tf is just a good way to funnel people in to their actual money makers which is mp.tf and scrap.tf. Also less bots and buy orders likely means that it likely increases traffic on scrap.tf.

Yeah they ain't all linked so guess it's OK, just gladiator did all the prices for things I guess?

[eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee]

3 hours ago, AwesomeSause said:

Yeah they ain't all linked so guess it's OK, just gladiator did all the prices for things I guess?

and backpack.tf returned to being not so profitable for geel

[Guccifish]

to add to this, more websites were hacked, from my sources bandit rustclash clash howl ruststake skinswap gladtf tf2hunt skinbet csgoroll were exploited, all of them being against steam TOS to I guess make it easier for the hacker to run away with it and not get sued? (all speculation) 

[Simple]

My bot was this one. https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389549498 

I've donated a total of 500,49$, I would like to transfer it back to my main acount. But I know for a fact that it will be denied forever.

Top donator #77
I could have very good use of it, and it is very sad for me to see that money stuck. I donated 100$+ recently even on that account. I feel sad. I can use it for my main classifieds.

[Bananas]

2 hours ago, Guccifish said:

to add to this, more websites were hacked, from my sources bandit rustclash clash howl ruststake skinswap gladtf tf2hunt skinbet csgoroll were exploited, all of them being against steam TOS to I guess make it easier for the hacker to run away with it and not get sued? (all speculation) 

ding ding ding

 

this is commonly done specifically because these site owners can’t fight back, kinda like when you go rob a drug dealer. What can he do after, call the cops? “SOMEBODY STOLE THE DRUGS I WAS SELLING!!!”

 

kinda hard to be tf2 hunt and get your money back when your whole thing is illegal online gambling using virtual skins

[100 Degrees Leather Jacket]

5 hours ago, Guccifish said:

to add to this, more websites were hacked, from my sources bandit rustclash clash howl ruststake skinswap gladtf tf2hunt skinbet csgoroll were exploited, all of them being against steam TOS to I guess make it easier for the hacker to run away with it and not get sued? (all speculation) 

Do you have a source or more information on all of these other hacks?

[Heidecker]

8 hours ago, 100 Degrees Leather Jacket said:

Do you have a source or more information on all of these other hacks?

 

There is probably a lot more info around now but I think this is one of the first incidents of one of the other affected site's admins talking about it.

 

[RussellSproutz]

8 hours ago, Heidecker said:

 

There is probably a lot more info around now but I think this is one of the first incidents of one of the other affected site's admins talking about it.

 

Oh jeez

[joekiller]

TF2Autobot does the donations too. $145.58 for this one. Glad it's mine. Glad I later.