Who is manipulating the market OR who is not destroying refined metal? (Key inflation)

[Gamer with a gun]

what the hell is going on with the keys recently? I have never seen this much inflation with keys than the crate depression with unusuals. 1 key on average, at the time I am posting this, is 77 refined each. and it doesn't show any signs of stopping anytime soon. It feels like trading in this economy becomes even more dreadful each passing month.

It may equal the same fate the CSGO economy has (at least, for people like me who don't like to spend a real penny on virtual items). let's just hope the 7-day cooldown also doesn't approach TF2 items right now. I don't see any reason why they would do that. about the keys, I get a little bit suspicious that inflation recently started instead of before.

just 2 months ago or so, key were a respectable 70 ref. even when I started out trading, keys were at least 69 ref on average. now it's just a painful view telling you to look away.

constantly. I want to know your opinions on this matter. and we can even have a discussion about REFINED METAL if it comes down to it.

[chadgladiatoruser]

it will go down

[Lucyfer]

I mean i've purchased a ton of refined metal and put a lot of it back into trading buy buying thousands upon thousands of vaccinators.. some people think i have an effect on the key price lol

[RussellSproutz]

Supply and Demand do be like that sometimes.

[Lucyfer]

15 minutes ago, Lucyfer said:

I mean i've purchased a ton of refined metal

I'm talking over 50,000 btw

[thebanditruby]

1 hour ago, Random Freeman said:

what the hell is going on with the keys recently? I have never seen this much inflation with keys than the crate depression with unusuals. 1 key on average, at the time I am posting this, is 77 refined each. and it doesn't show any signs of stopping anytime soon. It feels like trading in this economy becomes even more dreadful each passing month.

It may equal the same fate the CSGO economy has (at least, for people like me who don't like to spend a real penny on virtual items). let's just hope the 7-day cooldown also doesn't approach TF2 items right now. I don't see any reason why they would do that. about the keys, I get a little bit suspicious that inflation recently started instead of before.

just 2 months ago or so, key were a respectable 70 ref. even when I started out trading, keys were at least 69 ref on average. now it's just a painful view telling you to look away.

constantly. I want to know your opinions on this matter. and we can even have a discussion about REFINED METAL if it comes down to it.

when did this happen.

 

edit: nah hold up I remember when keys were like 20 ref during jungle inferno. inb4 "og" traders say they remember 3 ref keys. its been inflating for years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited February 7, 2023 by thebanditruby

[eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee]

keys always be a rollercoaster,dont worry about it until it reaches 90 ref

[Al Solae]

IT's not manipulation, it's just inflation. Sometimes it goes faster, sometimes it goes' backwards. Keys were going up pretty consistantly, then they actually went down for a little bit, and now I'm pretty sure it's just bouncing back. 

[FishtheFish]

I'm just not sure what other outcome you expected. Refined metal drops for free in the form of weapons that are crafted, and there is a theoretically infinite supply. The only way for new keys to enter the economy is for someone to purchase them from the in-game store.

The current measures in place that remove refined from the economy (hat crafting and Halloween transmutes chiefly) just aren't a strong enough incentive for people to dump their refined faster than it can drop. And even when people do, the refined removed from the economy is dropped again for free.

[G R O W U P]

2 hours ago, Lucyfer said:

I mean i've purchased a ton of refined metal and put a lot of it back into trading buy buying thousands upon thousands of vaccinators.. some people think i have an effect on the key price lol

were you the guy who bought all the ref on mannco the other day at 0.03-4 usd?

[mitk]

I am manipulating the market.

[Littlepudintater]

im in the market moving drastically, if you need me ask for the "sexual harassment guy".

[Beef]

3 hours ago, G R O W U P said:

were you the guy who bought all the ref on mannco the other day at 0.03-4 usd?

Sorry, that was me, you know how intense crafting hats can get.

[FP jh34ghu43gu]

It's actually me, I'm a monster that keeps unboxing old crates and thus destroying the key supply

 

(Key supply actually is going down, in conjunction with ref supply going up, that's your answer)

[Goldman Sachs]

>respectable 70 ref

I miss the days of respectable 50 ref tbh.

[Lucyfer]

7 hours ago, G R O W U P said:

were you the guy who bought all the ref on mannco the other day at 0.03-4 usd?

yup

[G R O W U P]

4 hours ago, Lucyfer said:

yup

legend 

 

@Beef @mitk you have been exposed. be prepared to go on drama alert

[Lucyfer]

2 hours ago, G R O W U P said:

legend 

 

@Beef @mitk you have been exposed. be prepared to go on drama alert

heres some more purchases 

[Gamer with a gun]

19 hours ago, Lucyfer said:

I mean i've purchased a ton of refined metal and put a lot of it back into trading buy buying thousands upon thousands of vaccinators.. some people think i have an effect on the key price lol

It doesn't matter if you purchased refined metal, the thing is, If you want to raise the value of each REFINED METAL, you need to get rid of it somehow forever in exchange of something or nothing(basically deleting it in your in-game backpack). sure, it's impressive you can buy 12000 refined, but how do you destroy all of it either way in order to make each refined worth more? I am not even saying that destroying 12000 refined is enough to fix the economy entirely. there is just a lot of refined metal in existance, like A LOT. more than 10 million (according to backpack.tf). It will take a worldwide effort to do so, and I'm no sure if that is gonna happen anytime soon. I am doing my part by making 1 craft hat every big profit I make. sure I may lose 1.33 ref every craft on average, but I get to enjoy getting hats I didn't even know existed in the game. I am using all of them as well. most people find this system pretty unfitting and not profitable (from what I have heard and seen in the trading community). I have an Idea of a system where, the more refined metal you put into some kind of package, the more valuable item you would get in return. there could be a limit to how much metal you can put in a single trade. there can also be a unique way of items being traded for with refined during a special time (Like, christmas, spring, summer, even scream fortress and so on). Won't you agree? if not, please explain. and by you, I mean the person I quoted and the other people reading this unnecessarily long reply.

[Gamer with a gun]

16 hours ago, mitk said:

I am manipulating the market.

You... Monster!

[eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee]

9 minutes ago, Random Freeman said:

It doesn't matter if you purchased refined metal, the thing is, If you want to raise the value of each REFINED METAL, you need to get rid of it somehow forever in exchange of something or nothing(basically deleting it in your in-game backpack). sure, it's impressive you can buy 12000 refined, but how do you destroy all of it either way in order to make each refined worth more? I am not even saying that destroying 12000 refined is enough to fix the economy entirely. there is just a lot of refined metal in existance, like A LOT. more than 10 million (according to backpack.tf). It will take a worldwide effort to do so, and I'm no sure if that is gonna happen anytime soon. I am doing my part by making 1 craft hat every big profit I make. sure I may lose 1.33 ref every craft on average, but I get to enjoy getting hats I didn't even know existed in the game. I am using all of them as well. most people find this system pretty unfitting and not profitable (from what I have heard and seen in the trading community). I have an Idea of a system where, the more refined metal you put into some kind of package, the more valuable item you would get in return. there could be a limit to how much metal you can put in a single trade. there can also be a unique way of items being traded for with refined during a special time (Like, christmas, spring, summer, even scream fortress and so on). Won't you agree? if not, please explain. and by you, I mean the person I quoted and the other people reading this unnecessarily long reply.

agreed

[Lucyfer]

49 minutes ago, Random Freeman said:

It doesn't matter if you purchased refined metal, the thing is, If you want to raise the value of each REFINED METAL, you need to get rid of it somehow forever in exchange of something or nothing(basically deleting it in your in-game backpack). sure, it's impressive you can buy 12000 refined, but how do you destroy all of it either way in order to make each refined worth more? I am not even saying that destroying 12000 refined is enough to fix the economy entirely. there is just a lot of refined metal in existance, like A LOT. more than 10 million (according to backpack.tf). It will take a worldwide effort to do so, and I'm no sure if that is gonna happen anytime soon. I am doing my part by making 1 craft hat every big profit I make. sure I may lose 1.33 ref every craft on average, but I get to enjoy getting hats I didn't even know existed in the game. I am using all of them as well. most people find this system pretty unfitting and not profitable (from what I have heard and seen in the trading community). I have an Idea of a system where, the more refined metal you put into some kind of package, the more valuable item you would get in return. there could be a limit to how much metal you can put in a single trade. there can also be a unique way of items being traded for with refined during a special time (Like, christmas, spring, summer, even scream fortress and so on). Won't you agree? if not, please explain. and by you, I mean the person I quoted and the other people reading this unnecessarily long reply.

my comment of "people think i have an effect on the market" is in regards to my collection. No, obviously I didn't delete any of my refined metal. But 99% of the metal I buy, just goes back into lower tier traders; people who have never had more than a 5 key backpack before. Again, it's pure speculation, I may not actually have an effect at all.

 

What I'm saying is, X-thousand refined metal sits on mannco.store. Sure they sell a couple thousand a day, but then out of nowhere, 12,000 ish goes to people who have never traded before. All im doing is giving more people a chance to play around with refined metal. I help increase the amount of people who want to buy keys, in turn, more keys get bought, and they go up in price. Maybe it has no effect at all. Pure speculation.

[Lucyfer]

messy response ik. my brain doesnt latch onto one thought, and instead floods with everything at once, so i dont have a coherent sentence sometimes lol sorry

[Empyrean]

1 hour ago, Lucyfer said:

my comment of "people think i have an effect on the market" is in regards to my collection. No, obviously I didn't delete any of my refined metal. But 99% of the metal I buy, just goes back into lower tier traders; people who have never had more than a 5 key backpack before. Again, it's pure speculation, I may not actually have an effect at all.

 

What I'm saying is, X-thousand refined metal sits on mannco.store. Sure they sell a couple thousand a day, but then out of nowhere, 12,000 ish goes to people who have never traded before. All im doing is giving more people a chance to play around with refined metal. I help increase the amount of people who want to buy keys, in turn, more keys get bought, and they go up in price. Maybe it has no effect at all. Pure speculation.

You may have possibly put 258 keys into circulation that were bought at ~47 ref. 
12,000 ref * 0.04 = 480$ = 480$/1.86$ = 258 keys bought on mannco store by refined metal sellers, again it is not guaranteed that people who sold their ref on mannco would buy keys,  but i just can't say any other meaningful way for them to realise their profit other than buying keys for 47 ref.

If those ref sellers dump keys to bots, the bots would have to keep the cycle going on or lose some profit, which i'm not sure if bots would do. 

[Lucyfer]

9 minutes ago, Empyrean said:

You may have possibly put 258 keys into circulation that were bought at ~47 ref. 
12,000 ref * 0.04 = 480$ = 480$/1.86$ = 258 keys bought on mannco store by refined metal sellers, again it is not guaranteed that people who sold their ref on mannco would buy keys,  but i just can't say any other meaningful way for them to realise their profit other than buying keys for 47 ref.

If those ref sellers dump keys to bots, the bots would have to keep the cycle going on or lose some profit, which i'm not sure if bots would do. 

this is too complicated for me, i just wanna buy vaccinators okay? lol