TF2- What are the chances for a 3 box loot and for a 4 box loot in Two Cities in terms of getting an Australium?

[RussellSproutz]

These are my Tours I did in Tour 40 and Tour 44. What are the technical rates to getting a 3 box loot for an aussie and getting a 4 box loot?
 

[GaZt0N]

Theres a 3% chance that u drop a aussie from the 3 boxes, idk about the 4 box %, but i would say around that 0.5-0.3%.

[tableboi84]

Wow congrats man!

[RussellSproutz]

More I know thanks!

[RussellSproutz]

2 minutes ago, GaZt0N said:

Theres a 3% chance that u drop a aussie from the 3 boxes, idk about the 4 box %, but i would say around that 0.5-0.3%.

Ooh I see is like gpan in the 0.5% rate side?

[RussellSproutz]

Oh yeah my next question like back to back aussies like in the first vid. Is that like even a rarer rate or smth?

[RussellSproutz]

Thanks homie. I appreciate it. My quest for the gpan continues!

[Shotgun]

13th tours and no australiums 

[Alecto]

11 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

13th tours and no australiums 

100 tour dry streaks tho

 

Odds of an australium are roughly 1/33 tours, odds of a pro fab are at a guess something like 1/10 tours (no doubt someone will come in with actual data and I'll be wrong lol)

so yeah what GaZt0N said sounds about right to me

[RussellSproutz]

34 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

13th tours and no australiums 

Took me 40 tours to get my aussie force of nature haha. dw you'll get there, Shotgun

[RussellSproutz]

15 minutes ago, Alecto said:

100 tour dry streaks tho

 

Odds of an australium are roughly 1/33 tours, odds of a pro fab are at a guess something like 1/10 tours (no doubt someone will come in with actual data and I'll be wrong lol)

so yeah what GaZt0N said sounds about right to me

aww I'm sorry to hear homie. Gpan coming your way. No that's fine. Thanks for the specifics,. Sounds right to me, Alecto!

[RussellSproutz]

53 minutes ago, tableboi said:

Wow congrats man!

Thanks homie I appreciate. I just play MvM for fun these days

[Lucyfer]

Off of my experience and what I know of, this is just what I base these answers off of. They are by no way 100% concrete evidence, but

 

Australiums are ~1 per 33 tours based off rough math

3 boxes is the minimum to get an australium (2 boxes is not possible to recieve an australium -in two cities. In other tours, seeing a 2 box completion is like seeing a 4 box-. 3 boxes is a chance, 4 boxes is guaranteed)

4 box is ~1/1000 tours. This is yet to be confirmed, and may be much less, as i am just over 500 tours and have gotten a 4 box i think... 2 or 3 times

Golden pan is ~1/16,000 tours. This is based off rough math.

[FP jh34ghu43gu]

4 minutes ago, Lucyfer said:

4 box is ~1/1000 tours. This is yet to be confirmed, and may be much less, as i am just over 500 tours and have gotten a 4 box i think... 2 or 3 times

Way over shooting it, the worst odds (10% and 2%) would put it at 1/500, I think it is closer to 1/333 based on my personal pro ks drops and my found aussie rate from the guide.

[Lucyfer]

6 minutes ago, FP jh34ghu43gu said:

Way over shooting it, the worst odds (10% and 2%) would put it at 1/500, I think it is closer to 1/333 based on my personal pro ks drops and my found aussie rate from the guide.

1/333 sounds closer, yeah

[sQew]

Really depends on your luck. I only have 1 4box in 460 tours, meanwhile my friend has 2 within 80.

 

as for 3 box aussies, what Alecto and Lucy said, around 1/33, for me personally my odds are lower at around 2%, but that’s probably just my shit luck. 
 

none of the odds are backed by valve officially so take it with a grain of salt.

[Colonel Johnson]

9 hours ago, RussellSproutz_YT said:

These are my Tours I did in Tour 40 and Tour 45. What are the technical rates to getting a 3 box loot for an aussie and getting a 4 box loot?
 

From 1232 tours in Two Cities, I got 4 boxes 8 times and 3 boxes many times, but consider that you can drop professional Fabricators that cost more than some australiums.

[Shotgun]

1 hour ago, Colonel Johnson said:

From 1232 tours in Two Cities, I got 4 boxes 8 times. 3 boxes, many times, but consider that you can drop professional Fabricators that cost more than some australiums.

These stats make me started to realize its way better to buy australiums than play mannup if you are coming for the loots

[Colonel Johnson]

50 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

These stats make me started to realize its way better to buy australiums than play mannup if you are coming for the loots

Always has been. Ton of people ask me in Mann Up if playing for loot is worth. Let me underline it: IT'S NOT. Thinking of spinning a wheel for profit is always a bad idea.

[Ellen Ripley]

Here is a steam guide made by some people regarding Australium drop rates: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2492606036

 

Basically is a 2.12% chance to get an Australium at the end of your tour and the chance for it to be a Frying Pan would be 0.24%

 

These are statistics made by players, it s not something official from Valve, so at the end of the day it's just random, when it happens, it happens.

Last week on Saturday I got an Australium Tomislav on my 3rd tour on Mecha Engine and yesterday (Sunday) I got an Australium Grenade Launcher on my 26th tour on Gear Grinder.

 

 

 

 

[roygbiv]

its just a nice coincidence when you get a 4 box.

 

Its two separate drop pools happening at the same time. 

 

1/33 aussie drop X 1/10 pro ks drop

 

around 1/330 tours 

 

idk the real odds on pro ks drop