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Festive collector chem set origins


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Playing around with aggregations, noticed that just shy of 1k chem sets were found in crates. That's odd cause it's pretty common knowledge that chem sets were found via random drops. Searched them and would you look at that, they are all for festive collector sets. https://next.backpack.tf/almanac/search?itemName=Chemistry Set&origin=8

Is there anyone who was into unboxing smissmas 2013 naughty/nice crates (the timeframe all of these came from) that could confirm (with a screenshot/video maybe?) that these dropped from crates? Or is it just some weird misattribution to origins? Tried searching for unboxing videos but only found 2 for a total of <20 crates.

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Ive always thought they were dropped, but I honestly do not know. Good that you act on your curiosity.

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I use to unbox a ton of crates back in 2013 but don't remember getting any kits from crates, unless my luck is just that bad. I could believe it being possible but was likely a rare drop if it was.

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3 hours ago, Vincentius said:

I use to unbox a ton of crates back in 2013 but don't remember getting any kits from crates, unless my luck is just that bad. I could believe it being possible but was likely a rare drop if it was.

It was only going to be from the winter crates is my guess, about a 1 month window.

Only about 1000 dropped, combining ATH of the festive sapper (unique and strange) and adding 7200 for the 36 collectors that exist, then multiplying by 9 to estimate the amount of naughty crates opened gives 517k, double it for nice crates and that's about a 1 in 1000 chance (0.1%). For reference an unusual is 1 in ~150 (0.66%). So yes, incredibly rare. You would have needed to open 693 of the crates to have a 50% chance of finding one.

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I have no recollection of seeing it either, but it was 9 years ago.

 

 

If you can check how many kits were dropping in the months before and after; maybe that could help?

 

If the amount is also around 1000, then I'd say it's more likely a glitch?

I mean there were hundreds of thousands of crates unboxed. That would mean that the drop rate of the kits had to be much lower than even those of unusuals. Which seems sorta strange, to me at least.

 

Otherwise, and if you're dedicated enough: Maybe try combing through youtube for random trade server footage uploaded during that time? Like spy-crabbing, trading, or unboxing vids. 

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1 hour ago, Melusine said:

That would mean that the drop rate of the kits had to be much lower than even those of unusuals. Which seems sorta strange, to me at least.

Strange elites (and assassins) are rarer than unusuals so it's not like it's impossible. Not sure if anyone has analyzed the bonus drops of the unlocked hween crates but maybe it's similar to those since there's hardly any of those special strangifiers/killstreak kits.

 

Wish I had a few hours to dedicate to searching videos but my final projects are being pretty demanding rn. Maybe I can update this in 2 weeks.

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  • 2 months later...

This thread makes me feel ancient, but yes, they were rare drops from the holiday crate at the time; I was there and following collectors items at the time. This is the origin of all non-glitched festive collector's chemistry sets. I'm pretty sure they were just bonus drops, but not absolutely certain. They were not really notable at the time, as they were both extremely rare and simultaneously not worth very much, so that's probably why this isn't documented anywhere.

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They were item drops not crate unlocks, as with all chemistry sets in existence. It was volvo's attempt at a metal sink I think, and they figured it wasn't worth it I suppose or just a one off idea

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30 minutes ago, thecityburns2day said:

They were item drops not crate unlocks, as with all chemistry sets in existence.

 

Fake news, I've got receipts.

 

https://old.reddit.com/r/tf2/comments/25uh86/q_do_collectors_chemistry_sets_still_drop/chl3a0y/

https://old.reddit.com/r/tf2/comments/1tcblg/so_it_seems_that_collectors_festive_sets_are_a/ce6s5rz/

 

 

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  • 2 months later...
On 7/5/2022 at 7:18 PM, Argos said:

I don't know why I didn't get notified of these replies but THANK YOU.

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