Guide to AWPer Hand and Sharp Dresser Crafting.

[knavesmith]

So I spent the past hour not doing my homework and typing up this wonderful guide about crafting AWPer Hands and Sharp Dressers. Tell me what you guys think about it!


Have you ever wanted to try your luck in an attempt to make some decent profit? Maybe you tried to unbox a crate in hopes of an unusual but all you got was a Strange Backscratcher? Do you ever wonder what's a gambler's way of profiting that does not have you going dirt poor in a matter of minutes?

Well AWPer Hand and Sharp Dresser crafting is your answer!

Take this following list of prices as a reference:
1 Token = 1.5 Scrap
1 AWPer Hand = 2.33 Refined
1 Sharp Dresser = 2.33 Refined

In order to craft a weapon, you require 1 Class Token, 1 Slot Token, and 1 Scrap Metal. this equals to a total price of 4 Scrap. AWPer Hands and Sharp Dressers each have a 1/6 chance of being crafted via Token Crafting. Since both an AWPer Hand and a Sharp Dresser are worth 2.33 Refined each, that means you can make 2.33 Refined using only 4 Scrap!

Now how would you go on using this? There are two possible methods, crafting the tokens yourself or buying the tokens.


Crafting the Tokens Yourself
By crafting the tokens yourself, you will be using up 4 Scrap per "craft," or session in which you try to craft a weapon. Since an AWPer Hand/Sharp Dresser is worth 2.33 Refined, crafting one gives you 5 free crafts and 1 Scrap leftover. With this in mind, you want to start with a bit of metal so you don't run out of crafts very quickly. But what's a good starting balance?

Pro Tip: You can use the weapons you get from your crafts to craft more tokens.

With this tip in mind, you will get 1 free craft for every 8 crafts you do since 8 weapons would equal to 4 scrap, essentially getting you 9 crafts for 8 crafts worth of metal. But how much is 8 crafts worth of metal?
1 Craft = 4 Scrap | 8 Crafts = 32 Scrap | 32 Scrap = 3.55 Refined
This means that for every 3.55 Refined you spend on Token Crafting, you get 1 free craft.

3.55 Refined would be a good starting balance for those who aren't wealthy but can afford it. However, for those with the money to spare, a good starting balance would actually be a key! Why?
3.55 x 2 = 7.11 = 1 Key
(scrap.tf pays 7.11 refined per key at the time of this post. There are also so many buyers for 7.11 that it shouldn't take you long to get 7.11 for your key)
So by spending a key on Token Crafting, you are getting 2 free chances of making 2.33 refined along with the other 16 theoretical chances of making 2.33 refined.


Buying the Tokens Yourself
You can actually get more crafts by buying tokens @ 1 scrap each. By buying tokens @ 1 scrap each, you are reducing the craft price down to 3 scrap, which decreases the required number of crafts for a "free craft," which in turn increases the number of "free crafts" you get.

1 Craft = 3 Scrap | 6 Crafts = 18 Scrap
6 Crafts = 6 Weapons | 6 Weapons = 3 Scrap = 1 free craft | 6 Crafts = 1 free craft | 6 Crafts = 7 Crafts

7 Crafts = 18 Scrap = 2 Refined

This means that for every 2 Refined you spend on Token Crafting, you get 1 Free Craft.
But wait, 1 token = 3 weapons, so how can you get a "craft" with only 6 weapons? Where does the extra scrap come from?
My response: "You're not crafting the tokens. You're buying the tokens. Think of it like this: 'I craft 2 weapons into 1 scrap, which I then use to buy a token.' By doing this, you're essentially using up only 2 weapons per token. Use 4 of those 6 weapons for tokens and the extra scrap comes from the extra 2 weapons, which are used up in the crafting session."

By buying the tokens yourself, you're giving yourself more "free crafts," therefore giving you more chances of crafting an AWPer Hand/Sharp Dresser. HOWEVER, the major drawback about this method is that it tends to take a while to buy a decent amount of tokens @ 1 Scrap each. Therefore, if you are either very patient or very lucky on getting sellers, then good for you! If you're not so patient and want to try your luck or simply aren't getting any sellers whatsoever, the first method might be better for you.


Now all of this brings up an important question.
How many AWPer Hands/Sharp Dressers do I need to craft in order to actually make profit?
This is actually pretty simple to calculate and it works for whatever method you may be using.

Take your starting balance in refined and divide it by 2.33
Remove the decimals place, then add 1.

Example: 17.77 / 2.33 = 7.6266... + 1 = 8

Do note that it is important to add 1 because the value you get from the AWPer Hand/Sharp Dresser crafts should be higher than your starting balance in order to make profit. (2.33 * 7 = 16.33, which would be a loss given the above example. 2.33 * 8 = 18.66, which would be making profit given the above example.)

By doing these calculation, you can keep track of whether you're making profit or not!
Note: Whole-Number Starting Balances which are multiples of 7 can break even if only 3 AWPer Hands/Sharp Dressers are crafted for every 7 Refined spent.


Conclusion
While it can be very profitable if you manage to craft many AWPer Hands or Sharp Dressers, you are still at a risk of a losing streak. Even though you have a 1/6 chance of crafting an AWPer Hand/Sharp Dresser, that does not necessarily mean you are guaranteed an AWPer Hand/Sharp Dresser in at most 6 crafts. Albeit unlikely with a higher number of crafts, it is entirely possible to not craft a single AWPer Hand/Sharp Dresser.

Don't let this discourage you, though. Would you rather spend your key on 1 chance (with a < 1% probability) of getting an Unusual (Which can possibly not be worth very much) or 18 chances (with a 16.66% probability) of getting an item worth 2.33 Refined?


TL;DR, spend your key on crafting 18 possible AWPer Hands or Sharp Dressers, not on 1 crate.

[Jesus Lord Almighty Christ]

TL;DR, spend your key on crafting 18 possible AWPer Hands or Sharp Dressers, not on 1 crate.

 

lol tell that to bucket

[knavesmith]

lol tell that to bucket

and Woifi too.

[Christley </3 Peelz]

the conclusion is that in the long run this is worse than unboxing. unboxing atleast has a chance of giving you back the investment in unusuals.

this can only make profit in low amounts of crafting. in the long run you'll be losing like 4-5 scraps per craft

[The Radiated Banana]

TL;DR, spend your key on crafting 18 possible AWPer Hands or Sharp Dressers, not on 1 crate.

seen this quite a few times but what does TL;DR mean?

[Spicy Ham]

seen this quite a few times but what does TL;DR mean?

Too long; didn't read

In this context a summary 

[knavesmith]

the conclusion is that in the long run this is worse than unboxing. unboxing atleast has a chance of giving you back the investment in unusuals.

this can only make profit in low amounts of crafting. in the long run you'll be losing like 4-5 scraps per craft

It's all a game of luck. Either you pull a Woifi or you become super rich. However, you're more likely to pull a Woifi than to become super rich. Or you can run out of keys before you even unbox an Unusual.

 

There is still the risk of losing money by attempting to craft AWPer Hands and Sharp Dressers, which I pointed out in my guide, but you won't lose as much metal as you would unboxing.

 

Would you rather risk it for the biscuit or play it safe? Most people would rather play it safe. Only a handful of people actually get the biscuit.

[Woifi The Viking]

I just wait for the bow to become craftable.

 

Also why is my name everywhere.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Would you rather risk it for the biscuit or play it safe? Most people would rather play it safe. Only a handful of people actually get the biscuit.

Or, and this may sound crazy, don't unbox, don't craft, don't spy crab, don't heavy box--just earn legit profit. 

[Christley </3 Peelz]

It's all a game of luck. Either you pull a Woifi or you become super rich. However, you're more likely to pull a Woifi than to become super rich. Or you can run out of keys before you even unbox an Unusual.

 

There is still the risk of losing money by attempting to craft AWPer Hands and Sharp Dressers, which I pointed out in my guide, but you won't lose as much metal as you would unboxing.

 

Would you rather risk it for the biscuit or play it safe? Most people would rather play it safe. Only a handful of people actually get the biscuit.

 

oh no, you pull a christley. not woifi. ive unboxed 1000 crates and gotten 1 unusual. currently unboxed 2900 crates and only gotten 4 or 5 unusuals.

 

id rather risk it for potensial profit rather than certain loss

[knavesmith]

Or, and this may sound crazy, don't unbox, don't craft, don't spy crab, don't heavy box--just earn legit profit.

This is a guide for people who want to gamble in an attempt to make profit. If you wish to make profit without gambling, this guide is not for you.

[knavesmith]

oh no, you pull a christley. not woifi. ive unboxed 1000 crates and gotten 1 unusual. currently unboxed 2900 crates and only gotten 4 or 5 unusuals.

 

id rather risk it for potensial profit rather than certain loss

With those 1000 keys, you could of have 18,000 chances of crafting an AWPer Hand or a Sharp Dresser and you only need to craft 3,005 to make profit. I hope that 1 Unusual was worth at least 50 buds to compensate for the 1000 keys used.

 

2,900 keys could of given you 52,200 possible chances at an AWPer Hand/Sharp Dresser while you only need to craft 8,713 to make profit. Those 4 or 5 Unusuals would need to be worth at least 145 buds combined to compensate for the keys used.

 

But you seem to be a lucky man. I'm sure you'll be fine.

[Splat]

Gambling is useless in the long term, according to maths.

[knavesmith]

Gambling is useless in the long term, according to maths.

Theoretically, yes. Realistically, it all depends on luck.

[Phase]

This has really helped, already made three Sharp Dressers out of 7 crafts! That's luck, I know; but still.

 

Sold two of em, keeping one for me. I'll probably do the same for FC, AWP, Apoco, ApSap, ect.

[knavesmith]

This has really helped, already made three Sharp Dressers out of 7 crafts! That's luck, I know; but still.

 

Sold two of em, keeping one for me. I'll probably do the same for FC, AWP, Apoco, ApSap, ect.

ApSap cannot be crafted.

 

Apoco Fists have a much smaller chance of being crafted than the AWPer hand and the Sharp Dresser.

 

What is an FC?

 

Glad the guide helped.

[Phase]

http://wiki.teamfortress.com/wiki/Fortified_Compound

 

The Fortified Compound, if it can be crafted. It's the promo for Theif.

[knavesmith]

http://wiki.teamfortress.com/wiki/Fortified_Compound

 

The Fortified Compound, if it can be crafted. It's the promo for Theif.

It will most likely become craftable since it has craft numbers. When it does, this guide will mostly only apply to Sharp Dressers.