What is the drop rate of the new halloween effect?

[louisclub]

So far i noticed, in availability:

Pumpkin party > Pyroland nightmare > Laught-O-Lantern > Goudian angel > Vexed volcanics

 

But its hard to tell from whats on sale only.

 

Also, will rarity dictates prices? Gourdian doesnt seems as valuable as the three laughing effects, but its more rare.

[Mengh.]

When viewing a case, they will display the roll rates of the effects e.g Pyroland Nightmare, Gourdian Angel and Pumpkin Party have a 20% chance each of being picked (3 chances out of 15). Because of that, some effects are rarer than others as chosen by the TF2 team.

 

Effect rarity can play into the pricing alongside the looks of the effect. If an effect is more common, there potentially will be more supply of an unusual with that effect and you'll have to be competing with others to sell yours.

[h21]

gourdian's not rare, if you check every new hat from the new case on the SCM and amount available the cheapest ones all have the gourdian effect, if you check every case unusual right now + the one's on the SCM pumpkin and gourdian and pyroland are the most common

 

gourdian is the least desired effect

 

you can just look at any of the new case hats and the distribution rate should be fairly similar

https://backpack.tf/unusual/Seared Sorcerer

for some hats there's an equal amount of graves/vexes

other hats more green gigglers than plum, more laughs than plum, etc.

 

but the most common all are pyro, gourdian, and pumpkin; and pumpkin seems to be more popular than the other two most common, gourdian right now is hard to sell; and like the guy above me said, the more there are of a certain item, the more competition there is (so people will undersell and cut), and it'll be less desirable

[Alecto]

Availability =/= drop rates

Certain effects look about as appealing as a boot to the teeth (looking at you gourdian), so people unbox them and go 'yeah nah I'm selling this piece of crap'. Then it sits on the market because not many people are interested in it either. Others are good enough for the owner to hold onto it so it doesn't make it to the market, this will skew your statistics of 'how many of each effect have been unboxed' based on how many of each people are selling. If you choose a few hats and look at the unusual statistics that will give you much more useful information - how many of them exist in scanned backpacks - you'll have a much better idea of how many are getting unboxed.

Example: https://backpack.tf/unusual/King Cardbeard

 

How it's been working since at least Halloween 2018 is that each family of effects (so the original effect and it's different colours) has an equal unbox rate. So the families this time would be:
-Pyroland Nightmare

-Gourdian Angel

-Pumpkin Party

-Vexed Volcanics/Gravelly Ghoul

-Laugh o Lantern/Green Giggler/Plum Prankster

 

Yes this results in some effects being more common than others, but it's not like valve looks at the effects and decides 'we should make this one rarer, it looks a lot nicer'. In fact based on this set of effects vs the summer 2020 effects it feels like they didn't even look at them at all lol