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Uncle Dang

So about that CSGO key ban thing

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Uncle Dang

Looks like it's now taking its toll on the key price on marketplace.tf https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

 

prepare for the apocalypse friends

 

granted, I could be wrong and that it's due to a seasonal Christmas cashout, but all your inventories are looking like they got devalued 10%

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mike_ers

I personally think it's just from the Christmas / Autumn Sale cashout period. There's hundreds of thousands of CS:GO keys that are tradable in existence, and buying TF2 keys from Marketplace is the same as buying CSGO keys from something like Bitskins, except now you have keys that despite being bought for less are also worth less to 99% of CS:GO traders and always have been since the earlier days of CS:GO trading. I'm sure that some people are bulk buying/selling TF2 keys due to this with some higher end CS:GO traders potentially wanting to stock up on TF2 keys incase it ends up working out for them, but the thing is if that was actually happening, key prices would go up, as price is determined by supply and demand. TF2 keys already have a ridiculously massive supply, so demand is the only real thing that drives their price, so if the CS:GO key situation is causing demand to go up, then theoretically keys should be selling easily for equalor greater price than they were before. Even if that's not how it works in this situation, if Valve did this to CSGO keys, they'll do the same to TF2 keys in the future if all the fraud shifts to TF2 keys instead. Thus, swapping to TF2 keys isn't actually that safe of an investment and as such, many CS:GO traders probably don't see any reason to do it.

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HaloGAMER0329

Europe is able to buy keys for 2 euros right now, which is only 2.2 usd instead of the standard 2.49. This price was updated November 12th. The price of keys in British pounds is 1.79 which is only 2.32 usd. Blame valve for not using real world exchange rates. Europe being able to get keys and everything else from the store super cheap causes their price to drop. CSGO has little to do with this.

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Morgana

Pretty sure ToTh was on is is. Geel dumps keys onto mp.tf for cheap since he takes his own 10% fee. They are always cheap when this happens. 

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Uncle Dang
40 minutes ago, HaloGAMER0329 said:

Europe is able to buy keys for 2 euros right now, which is only 2.2 usd instead of the standard 2.49. This price was updated November 12th. The price of keys in British pounds is 1.79 which is only 2.32 usd. Blame valve for not using real world exchange rates. Europe being able to get keys and everything else from the store super cheap causes their price to drop. CSGO has little to do with this.

my point in bringing CSGO into it is more so that since you can't do exchange rate tricks like that in CSGO anymore (which is where most of the money was), now people are scanning for those exploits in TF2 far more

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Uncle Dang
35 minutes ago, Morgana said:

Pretty sure ToTh was on is is. Geel dumps keys onto mp.tf for cheap since he takes his own 10% fee. They are always cheap when this happens. 

the timing would suggest this only started a month later

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flirganovski

I just hope they wont destroy TF2 trading. 

Trading is my favourite hobby! :)

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HaloGAMER0329
22 minutes ago, Pixxi0us said:

its not only marketplace. Same on mannco.store. - https://mannco.store/item/1
People are just panicking with no reason to be honest.

its not a panick, its just instead of a key being 2.49 steam wallet and selling for $1.80 paypal or whatever, the cost is $2.20 so they can sell for cheaper on paypal and still get the same ratio of money. Until valve puts fair exchange rates were just gonna have cheaper keys.

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Pixxi0us
Just now, HaloGAMER0329 said:

its not a panick, its just instead of a key being 2.49 steam wallet and selling for $1.80 paypal or whatever, the cost is $2.20 so they can sell for cheaper on paypal and still get the same ratio of money. Until valve puts fair exchange rates were just gonna have cheaper keys.

prices dont depend on valve but on sellers,

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HaloGAMER0329
23 minutes ago, Pixxi0us said:

prices dont depend on valve but on sellers,

All keys are bought from valve, if valve sells keys cheaper in Europe then you end up with keys being sold cheaper on paypal. Its not music theory, valve price drops, paypal seller price drops. If valve sold keys for the equivalent of 1 USD in Europe and 2.49 in the rest of the world, the price is going to drop, same concept here. 

 

Its extremely unfair anyway considering Europe has taxes included in the price which can be up to 30%, meaning valve pockets way less from them, and still sells them cheaper there. If they used automatic exchange rates like in the steam market this wouldnt be a problem, but valve manually sets their prices for the in game store and only updates them every few months, last update was November 12th.

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Alecto

I think this is more to do with the VNN video about how TF2 is on hold because of HL:VR
People have watched it and really only clinged to the part where it says 'they're not going to tell us if they're not going to do any more updates', started panicking and decided to sell all their stuff
From memory it was the days following that video where keys started sinking below the $1.80 mark it's been happily floating at for the last year (give or take)
 

It's people losing faith in the longevity of the game and not wanting to be stuck with hundreds or thousands of dollars worth of items for an unsupported fading game.

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HaloGAMER0329
12 hours ago, Uncle Dang said:

my point in bringing CSGO into it is more so that since you can't do exchange rate tricks like that in CSGO anymore (which is where most of the money was), now people are scanning for those exploits in TF2 far more

it was already being done in tf2, it just so happens the disparity in store price vs real world exchange rates is much larger, these "exploits" are only temporary until volvo puts fair prices and then messes them up all over again. The UK was the cheap region previously. 

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NineDevil

As some people mentioned above, to much stuff is going on the past 1-2 weeks.

 

We got the VNN video (of course drama, drama is life), the Autumn Sale and the new Half life, what probably almost anyone gets out there and besides this, one of the top sales is the VR Kit from valve too. (1k$) And of course the key drop itself strikes again, people see keys droped from 1.8 to 1.6 in 2 weeks what makes more people panicing, so stuff keeps going on and on until people stop undercuting or quickselling.

 

It will recover, atleast i hope it will, since not only keys on mp.tf are affected as well other stuff especially australium.

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flirganovski
7 minutes ago, NineDevil said:

As some people mentioned above, to much stuff is going on the past 1-2 weeks.

 

We got the VNN video (of course drama, drama is life), the Autumn Sale and the new Half life, what probably almost anyone gets out there and besides this, one of the top sales is the VR Kit from valve too. (1k$) And of course the key drop itself strikes again, people see keys droped from 1.8 to 1.6 in 2 weeks what makes more people panicing, so stuff keeps going on and on until people stop undercuting or quickselling.

 

It will recover, atleast i hope it will, since not only keys on mp.tf are affected as well other stuff especially australium.

It will recover surely but i hope TF2 will stay safe and without trade restrictions in the future.  :) I was CS GO trader in the past and like you already know TF2 community is way less toxic than CS GO, TF2 traders are real gentlemans compared to many CS GO kids and scammers who blocked me just because i declined big lowball trades, thats insane. 

I also cant understand gamblers, thats sickness!  

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Uncle Dang
9 hours ago, HaloGAMER0329 said:

it was already being done in tf2, it just so happens the disparity in store price vs real world exchange rates is much larger, these "exploits" are only temporary until volvo puts fair prices and then messes them up all over again. The UK was the cheap region previously. 

yeah but TF2 had like 1/10th the volume as CSGO (and even that might be generous), so now they have to raid the second best option with TF2 keys

 

I saw what happened this year with the argentine peso, it did also affect TF2 keys but it wasn't uniformly done among the more obscure keys (since they won't actually sell compared to literally any CSGO key)

 

Either way, yeah this key thing is likely a very caustic combination of Steam cashins for all sorts of sales and the VR kit and whatnot, general Christmas money, overall fear about TF2, and the likely situation that CSGO keys are effectively useless for cashing out Steam wallet funds now (hence migration to doing it with TF2 keys)

 

Also, I'm truly amazed if that VNN video actually is the tipping point for people, TF2 has been "on hold" with only community content for years now and if you couldn't see it you were hopelessly naive

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AR3M

It isn't anything to do with the CS:GO Key ban. Nothing changed when it first happened, in fact TF2 keys almost went up a bit as some people we're thinking that they might be the new things. The drop in key prices correlates with the CS:GO Operation, Steam Sales and general events that cause price fluctuations. Literally every skins in CS:GO has dropped in price due to people selling to buy the operation pass and/or buy on sale games.

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HaloGAMER0329
18 hours ago, Uncle Dang said:

yeah but TF2 had like 1/10th the volume as CSGO (and even that might be generous), so now they have to raid the second best option with TF2 keys

 

I saw what happened this year with the argentine peso, it did also affect TF2 keys but it wasn't uniformly done among the more obscure keys (since they won't actually sell compared to literally any CSGO key)

 

Either way, yeah this key thing is likely a very caustic combination of Steam cashins for all sorts of sales and the VR kit and whatnot, general Christmas money, overall fear about TF2, and the likely situation that CSGO keys are effectively useless for cashing out Steam wallet funds now (hence migration to doing it with TF2 keys)

 

Also, I'm truly amazed if that VNN video actually is the tipping point for people, TF2 has been "on hold" with only community content for years now and if you couldn't see it you were hopelessly naive

I saw it done with paint, tod tickets and expanders all the time and even the case keys. people listed paint and tickets for about 1.06-1.08 and keys for about 2.65-2.69 this made them a penny or two in profit. So valve price goes down x%, paypal price should go down x%. That means the prices we have right now are actually pretty normal. 

 

Keys have historically sold for about 75-80% of the cheapest possible store price. We can say keys were previously about ~$1.8 that was about the typical range, sometimes a little higher sometimes a little lower, the UK was able to buy for roughly $2.30-2.35, so we get about 76-78% conversion rate. Europe is currently able to buy for $2.20-2.22, keys are currently selling for about ~$1.7, we get the same 76-78% conversion rate.... so nothing changed

 

Everyone knows TF2 does not get attention from volvo, this is basically just the same thing as the argentina currency thing on a less extreme but more "permanent" scale. The problem stems from valve not using a real world exchange rates and instead using whatever nice round number they think will sell them the most keys. Im sure people in those regions could be put off from buying if their key prices changed daily, imagine buying from the store and a few hours later they are cheaper. The amount of refund request would be absurd.

 

Keys were previously €2.19 or €2.1 I dont remember,  but I think £1.79 stayed the same. I dont constantly check exchange rates, only when they annoy me. If they were fair theyd be €2.25 and £1.90, check the rates for yourself.

https://wiki.teamfortress.com/wiki/Mann_Co._Supply_Crate_Key

 https://wiki.teamfortress.com/wiki/Tour_of_Duty_Ticket

https://money.cnn.com/data/currencies/

 

 

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