Wooden House Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 My friend Updog, http://steamcommunity.com/id/iUpdog Unboxed 2 unusuals, in 2 days, they were the same hat, with the same level, but one was steaming and the other one was Nuts and bolts. What are the chances of him getting the SAME TWO HATS with the SAME LEVELS in 2 days. You can check the history on both of the hats, he is the first owner. Has this happened to anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slocumruls Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 chances are very low for any 1 person but for entire tf2 community it actually becomes quite likely to occur on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wooden House Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 chances are very low for any 1 person but for entire tf2 community it actually becomes quite likely to occur on occasion. I was there when he unboxed each one, One of them isnt even tradable until the 31st, that's the one he just unboxed the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
♠Derpeh♤ Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This happened to quite a few people did it not? I recall a few trades in the past where this has happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vegan T-Rex Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1pug4n/psa_i_believe_i_have_cracked_how_unusuals_are/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wooden House Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 This happened to quite a few people did it not? I recall a few trades in the past where this has happened I seen a guy on outpost that unboxed 2 consecutive nuts and bolts waxy wayfinders. It happened on pink tacos server, pink taco was talking about it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wooden House Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1pug4n/psa_i_believe_i_have_cracked_how_unusuals_are/ I've seen that post before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
♠Derpeh♤ Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I seen a guy on outpost that unboxed 2 consecutive nuts and bolts waxy wayfinders. It happened on pink tacos server, pink taco was talking about it as well. There was the waxys, the electric escorter and some others too same levels, same effect as well. If i remember correctly someone explained it as valve's way of "randomising" unusual unboxing which can cause this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puddingkip Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well, there are currently 258 different hats in unusual quality. Of those 12 are no longer unboxable so 246 available. The levels are random 1-100, so twice the same level is 1/100 chance So, 1/246 * 1/100 = 4,0650406504065040650406504065041e-5 This all is disregarding the fact that drops are NOT truly equal among all hats (shaman) But unboxing a specific hat with a specific level twice in a row, say a data mining light lvl 30 = 1/126*1/246*1/100*1/100 = 1,6524555489457333597726221164651e-9. If you also need a specific effect, the chances will be even slimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wooden House Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well, there are currently 258 different hats in unusual quality. Of those 12 are no longer unboxable so 246 available. The levels are random 1-100, so twice the same level is 1/100 chance So, 1/246 * 1/100 = 4,0650406504065040650406504065041e-5 This all is disregarding the fact that drops are NOT truly equal among all hats (shaman) But unboxing a specific hat with a specific level twice in a row, say a data mining light lvl 30 = 1/126*1/246*1/100*1/100 = 1,6524555489457333597726221164651e-9. If you also need a specific effect, the chances will be even slimmer wot, lel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puddingkip Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 wot, lel Me in class with calculator and extremely little to do calculated this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 a pair of waxys (iirc) were unboxed at the same time by the same person with the exact same level and effect a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjjon123 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 If I recall correctly, there was a similar incident with a pair of price tavish crowns a-while back. Identical level and effect unboxed by the same person within a short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slocumruls Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Valve uses a time and userid based randomization algorithm. this could easily explain unboxing the same hat/effect twice in a row. The level is likely simply another randomization algorithm (again most likely using time as a factor) which adds just around a 1/100 chance of someone that gets same hat to also get the same effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knavesmith Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well, there are currently 258 different hats in unusual quality. Of those 12 are no longer unboxable so 246 available. The levels are random 1-100, so twice the same level is 1/100 chance So, 1/246 * 1/100 = 4,0650406504065040650406504065041e-5 This all is disregarding the fact that drops are NOT truly equal among all hats (shaman) But unboxing a specific hat with a specific level twice in a row, say a data mining light lvl 30 = 1/126 1/246*1/246*1/100*1/100 = 1,6524555489457333597726221164651e-9. If you also need a specific effect, the chances will be even slimmer So a 1 in 605,160,000 chance. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Prince Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Some hats never get unique level's little buddy for example is always level 10, i was very disappointed that it did't have unique level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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