Currency price pattern

[Alen]

1 hour ago, Apo said:

Lol. You asked a question that I had answered before you asked, I didn't think I'd have to specify the answer again.

 

Why are you quoting past statements? You're making ME specify MY answers again because you're changing the subject to incentives, which, as I already explained before, someone needs before investing money. At the start, IF they buy cosmetics, they're already in the hole, because once they realized they screwed themselves over, they'll want to sell those cosmetics, and so begins the vicious cycle of selling cosmetics to bots instead. And of course, with bots comes terrible deals that make them lose profit. They're going to want to make profit after realizing their mistakes, but they've already done themselves over and need to invest more money. By then, they've either exhausted their willpower to trade or they've drained their PayPal account trying to get items. Even some of the oldest steam "veterans" fall for this because almost everyone refuses to look up a guide to not busting their ass and losing everything.

As said before, some people simply do not have access to a credit, debit card, or a PayPal account, but desperately want to get into trading for fun and the hell of it.

[Alen]

42 minutes ago, Scott Bakula said:

 

I'd attribute that more to the fact that most people don't play the same game over and over for years. People change over time, and their hobbies and interests change with them. And for a great deal of people who just stopped playing, there was never an "I'm done with this game, I'm cashing out!" moment; their free time was just taken up with a different game or life event until suddenly they haven't touched the game in over a year. Think about it, when was the last time you fed your Neopets?

No clue what neopets are, but you do have a point, many people do become preoccupied with other life events. There's a bunch who have played this game while simultaneously playing other games and still manage to find the time to trade. Either ways, there's gonna be a lot more abandoned backpacks due to the shoddy currency raises since 2012.

[Apo]

2 hours ago, Alen said:

Why are you quoting past statements?

You asked a question I had already answered. I was showing you the answer (again).

I guess I'll have to give you the same answer.... again. Because you're completely missing the point.

 

2 hours ago, Alen said:

At the start, IF they buy cosmetics, they're already in the hole, because once they realized they screwed themselves over, they'll want to sell those cosmetics because once they realized they screwed themselves over, they'll want to sell those cosmetics, and so begins the vicious cycle of selling cosmetics to bots instead.

You're assuming:

1. Every single person who would consider spending money on TF2 is trying to break even/profit by buying cosmetics. (Because nobody buys items for keeps amirite???)
2. They will want to sell the items that they bought immediately for profit (Again, they may have bought them for keeps?)
3. They will screw themselves over . . . ? And then "realize it" . . . ? (No... they won't. Buying cosmetics isn't screwing yourself. At the very worst you'll have lost a few cents buying a cosmetic you don't want to keep)

 

Side note: If someone thinks losing $0.01-$0.05 on an investment is devastating, they do not have anywhere near enough capital to be investing.

 

2 hours ago, Alen said:

They're going to want to make profit

No? If you assume EVERYONE who buys any item is in it for profit, you are absolutely 100% wrong.

 

2 hours ago, Alen said:

And of course, with bots comes terrible deals

LOL. On low tier items, the profit margin on many bots is 0.11-0.33 ref, which is <$0.05.

Buying from bots is not a "mistake" or a "terrible deal." People who buy from bots, most of the time are buying their item for keeps, and pay the extra $0.10-$0.01 in refined for convenience. Losing a couple cents when trading items for keeps is no big deal at all (unless you're a profit whore, which is a minority of people who spend money on virtual items.)

Guess what? There's an INCENTIVE to use bots! They're faster than real people and you only lose half a cent by trading them instead of a real person! (You can also  wait for 18 hours to maybe trade with the human pablo.rodriguez.2007 and save half a cent. There's an incentive there too, just a very poor one.)

 

If you think spending an extra few cents to buy an item faster is a bad deal, then wait for a better one.

If you think losing a few cents to instantly sell an item is a bad deal, then wait for a better one.

Most people in extremely low tier trading are able to write off a $0.06 loss and feel no pain.

You can make that back easily. If that $0.06 loss is devastating, you should not be trading items for a living. If you're trading for fun, then the loss doesn't matter.

 

2 hours ago, Alen said:

incentives [are something that] someone needs before investing money

No shit Sherlock. The INCENTIVE to buy items, for the majority of people spending money on virtual items, is to HAVE ITEMS*. Sure, many people buy items to profit, but without people buying items for keeps, there will be no economy*.

 

The INCENTIVES for people to buy items are:

• Customize their character
• Stand out
• Bragging rights
• Unlock Weapons
• Track kills/stats with stranges
• Trade for fun/profit.

Saying that there is no (or a very low) incentive to spend money because "trading is haarrrddddd" is absolutely foolish and completely wrong.

 

There are plenty of incentives to spend money that are positively affected by the higher refined price of keys.

Some positive things about a key that is worth more refined:

• Getting more cosmetics (Up to ~25, instead of the ~2 you'd get back in the day) from a $2 key
• Getting more weapons (Up to ~300, instead of the ~18 you'd get back in the day) from a $2 key.
• Getting more stranges from a $2 key
• Getting more taunts from a $2 key
• Getting more etc. from a $2 key

Using your logic, people wouldn't ever buy skins in LOL or lootboxes in Overwatch, since they literally can't resell their items for profit. (They can't trade those at all! They are "draining their paypal accounts" and "can't make a profit!!")

 

*The majority of people who spend money on these items are not doing it for profit. You can see this with other games that include microtransactions, which have no way for a player to "cash out." Those games still sell tons of virtual items, even though there's not a way to make money from buying their microtransactions.

*If nobody is buying items for keeps, every single item is worth nothing, since nobody wants to buy those items. If nobody wants to buy anything for keeps, there's no room for profit, since everyone wants only profit, and nobody is willing to take a loss.

 

2 hours ago, Alen said:

As said before, some people simply do not have access to a credit, debit card, or a PayPal account, but desperately want to get into trading for fun and the hell of it.

If they have no access to money, it doesn't matter what incentive there is to spend money, they literally CAN'T spend/invest any! This argument is completely invalid.

 

Guess what? These are the people who are raising the prices of keys in terms of refined. They farm refined to buy keys since they don't want to pay for them. The amount of refined goes up, and the demand for keys goes up, while demand for refined falls.

If you take issue with keys being priced so highly in refined, these people are the ones causing it. So guess what?

They're making it harder for themselves to trade up for nothing, simply by doing that! Trading up from nothing!

[ksolis01]

29 minutes ago, Apo said:

~snip~

I am trying to think of a way to add to your post but you got pretty much every base covered, and I couldn't have said it better myself.

I'll edit this if I can think of anything.

[RED265]

5 hours ago, Scott Bakula said:

 

I'd attribute that more to the fact that most people don't play the same game over and over for years. People change over time, and their hobbies and interests change with them. And for a great deal of people who just stopped playing, there was never an "I'm done with this game, I'm cashing out!" moment; their free time was just taken up with a different game or life event until suddenly they haven't touched the game in over a year. Think about it, when was the last time you fed your Neopets?

My neopet probably had less food than an african child.

 

Dark humor is like food, not every one gets it.

[Alen]

17 hours ago, Apo said:

You asked a question I had already answered. I was showing you the answer (again).

I guess I'll have to give you the same answer.... again. Because you're completely missing the point.

 

You're assuming:

1. Every single person who would consider spending money on TF2 is trying to break even/profit by buying cosmetics. (Because nobody buys items for keeps amirite???)
2. They will want to sell the items that they bought immediately for profit (Again, they may have bought them for keeps?)
3. They will screw themselves over . . . ? And then "realize it" . . . ? (No... they won't. Buying cosmetics isn't screwing yourself. At the very worst you'll have lost a few cents buying a cosmetic you don't want to keep)

 

Side note: If someone thinks losing $0.01-$0.05 on an investment is devastating, they do not have anywhere near enough capital to be investing.

 

No? If you assume EVERYONE who buys any item is in it for profit, you are absolutely 100% wrong.

 

LOL. On low tier items, the profit margin on many bots is 0.11-0.33 ref, which is <$0.05.

Buying from bots is not a "mistake" or a "terrible deal." People who buy from bots, most of the time are buying their item for keeps, and pay the extra $0.10-$0.01 in refined for convenience. Losing a couple cents when trading items for keeps is no big deal at all (unless you're a profit whore, which is a minority of people who spend money on virtual items.)

Guess what? There's an INCENTIVE to use bots! They're faster than real people and you only lose half a cent by trading them instead of a real person! (You can also  wait for 18 hours to maybe trade with the human pablo.rodriguez.2007 and save half a cent. There's an incentive there too, just a very poor one.)

 

If you think spending an extra few cents to buy an item faster is a bad deal, then wait for a better one.

If you think losing a few cents to instantly sell an item is a bad deal, then wait for a better one.

Most people in extremely low tier trading are able to write off a $0.06 loss and feel no pain.

You can make that back easily. If that $0.06 loss is devastating, you should not be trading items for a living. If you're trading for fun, then the loss doesn't matter.

 

No shit Sherlock. The INCENTIVE to buy items, for the majority of people spending money on virtual items, is to HAVE ITEMS*. Sure, many people buy items to profit, but without people buying items for keeps, there will be no economy*.

 

The INCENTIVES for people to buy items are:

• Customize their character
• Stand out
• Bragging rights
• Unlock Weapons
• Track kills/stats with stranges
• Trade for fun/profit.

Saying that there is no (or a very low) incentive to spend money because "trading is haarrrddddd" is absolutely foolish and completely wrong.

 

There are plenty of incentives to spend money that are positively affected by the higher refined price of keys.

Some positive things about a key that is worth more refined:

• Getting more cosmetics (Up to ~25, instead of the ~2 you'd get back in the day) from a $2 key
• Getting more weapons (Up to ~300, instead of the ~18 you'd get back in the day) from a $2 key.
• Getting more stranges from a $2 key
• Getting more taunts from a $2 key
• Getting more etc. from a $2 key

Using your logic, people wouldn't ever buy skins in LOL or lootboxes in Overwatch, since they literally can't resell their items for profit. (They can't trade those at all! They are "draining their paypal accounts" and "can't make a profit!!")

 

*The majority of people who spend money on these items are not doing it for profit. You can see this with other games that include microtransactions, which have no way for a player to "cash out." Those games still sell tons of virtual items, even though there's not a way to make money from buying their microtransactions.

*If nobody is buying items for keeps, every single item is worth nothing, since nobody wants to buy those items. If nobody wants to buy anything for keeps, there's no room for profit, since everyone wants only profit, and nobody is willing to take a loss.

 

If they have no access to money, it doesn't matter what incentive there is to spend money, they literally CAN'T spend/invest any! This argument is completely invalid.

 

Guess what? These are the people who are raising the prices of keys in terms of refined. They farm refined to buy keys since they don't want to pay for them. The amount of refined goes up, and the demand for keys goes up, while demand for refined falls.

If you take issue with keys being priced so highly in refined, these people are the ones causing it. So guess what?

They're making it harder for themselves to trade up for nothing, simply by doing that! Trading up from nothing!

Guess what? They're not. It's the people like you with high value backpacks raising the prices up the ass so you and only you can profit from it.

Trading IS difficult. Try buying a 10 key unusual and trying to get an offer that breaks even or doesn't lowball you at 8-9 keys. Good luck with that.

I'm not talking about a $0.06 loss, that's about a craft hat's worth. I'm talking about mistakes worth $1.00+ that force you to invest more money to continue trading.

Actually, you'd get 36 weapons back in the day because a key was 2 refined. That was when the community was booming, because you could make an easy trading life out of what you had, even if it was just 18 weapons.

Getting more stranges, taunts, or etc. out of a key is irrelevant because if the economy was like the one back in the day, keys would be even easier to obtain and taunts, stranges even more so due to the abundance of crafting. The prices would be different no doubt, but it'd be in a way obtainable for someone who's on a budget as they say.

[Apo]

5 hours ago, Alen said:

Guess what? They're not. It's the people like you with high value backpacks raising the prices up the ass so you and only you can profit from it.

You're just wrong.

People who introduce tons of refined into the game without buying keys (with real money) are the ones devaluing refined.

Keys are not getting more expensive, refined is becoming worthless. Refined is becoming worthless because of people who farm it and don't buy keys with real money.

 

They farm refined (increase supply of refined) and want to get rid of it (decrease demand for refined) in exchange for keys (raise demand of keys.)

These people literally destroy the value of refined metal. Refined used to be worth a lot more in USD. (see: https://web.archive.org/web/20130918021604/http://backpack.tf:80/)

Now it is worth next to nothing because everyone gets it for free.

 

People with high value backpacks who buy a bunch of keys are the ones who increase supply of keys.

Guess what? With a higher supply of keys, if the demand stays stable, means a LOWER PRICE for keys, in terms of refined.

 

Breakdown:

• The price of keys in USD remains relatively the same because valve sells keys for a fixed price.
• The price of refined in USD falls because everyone gets it for free.
• The exchange rate between the two items changes as the price in USD fluctuates for each one.

For either keys or refined, a higher supply generally means a lower price.

However.. Keys generally decrease in supply or remain about the same, whereas refined is infinitely pouring into the economy.

 

5 hours ago, Alen said:

Trading IS difficult. Try buying a 10 key unusual and trying to get an offer that breaks even or doesn't lowball you at 8-9 keys. Good luck with that.

That's a non-issue. You'll of course get lowballs from profit traders. But guess what? Remember those people I mentioned earlier?

Y'know.. the ones who buy items for keeps? Collectors, or other people who buy items for keeps, will usually pay a fair price for items they want.

Trading isn't hard. Trading specifically for profit, on the other hand, requires you to be smart and/or take risks.

 

5 hours ago, Alen said:

I'm not talking about a $0.06 loss, that's about a craft hat's worth. I'm talking about mistakes worth $1.00+ that force you to invest more money to continue trading.

You say trading a cosmetic to a bot is a bad idea because its a loss. I say its a few cent loss.

You can't then say "I'm not talking about a small loss, that's what'd happen with a craft hat."

That is the example I used, because its the SCENARIO THAT YOU USED. With cosmetics and bots!

 

Regardless, if we do go with a "loss of $1" then we'll use the scenario where you mention trading 10 key unusuals.

If you have 10 keys and you lose a dollar or two, its not the end of the world. You do not need to invest more money to keep trading.

You can make your losses back pretty quickly if you're actively trading.

 

5 hours ago, Alen said:

Actually, you'd get 36 weapons back in the day because a key was 2 refined.

Oh my bad. Here's the correct comparison:

TF2 key back then: 36 weapons

TF2 key now: 300+ weapons

Huh.. Still looks like a key nowadays nets you a way better bang for your buck. Still a landslide victory.

 

5 hours ago, Alen said:

Getting more stranges, taunts, or etc. out of a key is irrelevant

Getting more items from a key is literally the definition of increased incentive to buy keys.

Getting more bang for your buck means you have more incentive to spend money.

 

5 hours ago, Alen said:

if the economy was like the one back in the day, keys would be VERY easy to obtain and taunts, stranges even more so due to the abundance of crafting.

If everything is more expensive relative to a key (1 key only nets you 30 weapons instead of 300), and you can easily trade and get these items for free, it creates LESS OF AN INCENTIVE to spend real money, as you get less bang for your buck, plus: you can get everything for free super easy anyways so why spend money? Just trade for free!

 

Here are your two options:

• Keys back in the day: Spend $2 and get 36 weapons
• Keys now: Spend $2 and get 300+ weapons

Which of these has a better incentive for a consumer to spend $2?

 

5 hours ago, Alen said:

What you're trying to defend is big backpacks without realizing the side effects. People like you kill the community and just shrug it off when you notice that there's less of everything now, most importantly traders because of the prices that keep raising.

What in the hell are you talking about. Prices for most items are constantly falling.

This statement makes literally no sense. If there's "less traders" then how in the hell would the price for everything go up? There'd be "less traders" to sell items to, with a ton of bots competing for profit. This competition, paired with a lower amount of buyers, will LOWER the price, not increase it.

 

 

--

 

 

Real life example of what I'm talking about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

Germany printed a bunch of extra currency (similar to adding bunch of refined to the tf2 economy) while the amount of gold (similar to keys) they had in reserve remained the same.

Now, look at this graph:

One could say that the "price of gold" increased, because it takes more paper currency (refined) to buy gold (keys).

They would be wrong.

The value of their gold (keys) stayed the same in $USD, but their paper marks (refined) were almost entirely worthless.

 

Just a few years before, a few hotdogs would have cost you ~90 paper marks (about $1 USD equivalent in 1921.) But just 2 years later, in 1923, you'd have to spend 4,210,500,000,000 paper marks (about $1 USD equivalent in 1923) for a couple hotdogs.

Did the price of hotdogs increase? Not at all. Either way you spent $1. The value of the paper mark simply decreased.

 

This is the same with ref and keys.

Keys remain relatively stable, while refined is constantly generated for free.

 

--

 

Trading for items in low tier trading is positively influenced for consumers by a low refined price (in $USD.)

Trading for profit (in terms of $USD), however, will take longer if you're trading extremely low tier items. This is because refined is $0.05-$0.10, so if you make a 1 refined profit, it is worth less (in $USD) than when ref was $0.50 or more.

The reason ref is worth less (in $USD) isn't because high tier traders are manipulating the economy to destroy noobs' hopes and dreams. It's because there is too much refined and too little demand for it.

[tardlife]

I don't even know what the topic is anymore.

Anyway...let's burn all the bots and solve this crisis once and for all!

[RED265]

1 hour ago, tardlife said:

I don't even know what the topic is anymore.

Anyway...let's burn all the bots and solve this crisis once and for all!

The typical argument of keys increasing in value from the point of a low tier trader vs refined falling in value from the point of a high tier trader. My own opinion? Refined crashes in value due to its oversupply, but bots are semi-destroying the market by performing the role of a 'bank'. (Banks have been found to have caused the economic collapse multiple times in history, the property, south East Asian, orchid bubble to name a few)

[Scott Bakula]

12 hours ago, Apo said:

Guess what? These are the people who are raising the prices of keys in terms of refined. They farm refined to buy keys since they don't want to pay for them. The amount of refined goes up, and the demand for keys goes up, while demand for refined falls.

 

And to add to that, people who farmed refined weren't using just one account. When the f2p update happened, people made dozens of alt accounts for themselves, and had them all running tf2 in text mode on virtual windows desktops, drastically increasing the flow of metal and craft hats into the economy.

[Alen]

4 hours ago, Scott Bakula said:

 

And to add to that, people who farmed refined weren't using just one account. When the f2p update happened, people made dozens of alt accounts for themselves, and had them all running tf2 in text mode on virtual windows desktops, drastically increasing the flow of metal and craft hats into the economy.

That's where valve put an end to that, remember the Cheater's Lament?

[Alen]

6 hours ago, tardlife said:

I don't even know what the topic is anymore.

Anyway...let's burn all the bots and solve this crisis once and for all!

"She's on fire..."

No, but really, I just have a seriously low opinion of people who use bots, and it'll remain that way for a long time. I'm sure many low-tier traders hate bots too, as they were primarily (imo) the cause of key inflation.

[Alen]

6 hours ago, Apo said:

You're just wrong.

People who introduce tons of refined into the game without buying keys (with real money) are the ones devaluing refined.

Keys are not getting more expensive, refined is becoming worthless. Refined is becoming worthless because of people who farm it and don't buy keys with real money.

 

They farm refined (increase supply of refined) and want to get rid of it (decrease demand for refined) in exchange for keys (raise demand of keys.)

These people literally destroy the value of refined metal. Refined used to be worth a lot more in USD. (see: https://web.archive.org/web/20130918021604/http://backpack.tf:80/)

Now it is worth next to nothing because everyone gets it for free.

 

People with high value backpacks who buy a bunch of keys are the ones who increase supply of keys.

Guess what? With a higher supply of keys, if the demand stays stable, means a LOWER PRICE for keys, in terms of refined.

 

Breakdown:

• The price of keys in USD remains relatively the same because valve sells keys for a fixed price.
• The price of refined in USD falls because everyone gets it for free.
• The exchange rate between the two items changes as the price in USD fluctuates for each one.

For either keys or refined, a higher supply generally means a lower price.

However.. Keys generally decrease in supply or remain about the same, whereas refined is infinitely pouring into the economy.

 

That's a non-issue. You'll of course get lowballs from profit traders. But guess what? Remember those people I mentioned earlier?

Y'know.. the ones who buy items for keeps? Collectors, or other people who buy items for keeps, will usually pay a fair price for items they want.

Trading isn't hard. Trading specifically for profit, on the other hand, requires you to be smart and/or take risks.

 

You say trading a cosmetic to a bot is a bad idea because its a loss. I say its a few cent loss.

You can't then say "I'm not talking about a small loss, that's what'd happen with a craft hat."

That is the example I used, because its the SCENARIO THAT YOU USED. With cosmetics and bots!

 

Regardless, if we do go with a "loss of $1" then we'll use the scenario where you mention trading 10 key unusuals.

If you have 10 keys and you lose a dollar or two, its not the end of the world. You do not need to invest more money to keep trading.

You can make your losses back pretty quickly if you're actively trading.

 

Oh my bad. Here's the correct comparison:

TF2 key back then: 36 weapons

TF2 key now: 300+ weapons

Huh.. Still looks like a key nowadays nets you a way better bang for your buck. Still a landslide victory.

 

Getting more items from a key is literally the definition of increased incentive to buy keys.

Getting more bang for your buck means you have more incentive to spend money.

 

If everything is more expensive relative to a key (1 key only nets you 30 weapons instead of 300), and you can easily trade and get these items for free, it creates LESS OF AN INCENTIVE to spend real money, as you get less bang for your buck, plus: you can get everything for free super easy anyways so why spend money? Just trade for free!

 

Here are your two options:

• Keys back in the day: Spend $2 and get 36 weapons
• Keys now: Spend $2 and get 300+ weapons

Which of these has a better incentive for a consumer to spend $2?

 

What in the hell are you talking about. Prices for most items are constantly falling.

This statement makes literally no sense. If there's "less traders" then how in the hell would the price for everything go up? There'd be "less traders" to sell items to, with a ton of bots competing for profit. This competition, paired with a lower amount of buyers, will LOWER the price, not increase it.

 

 

--

 

 

Real life example of what I'm talking about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

Germany printed a bunch of extra currency (similar to adding bunch of refined to the tf2 economy) while the amount of gold (similar to keys) they had in reserve remained the same.

Now, look at this graph:

One could say that the "price of gold" increased, because it takes more paper currency (refined) to buy gold (keys).

They would be wrong.

The value of their gold (keys) stayed the same in $USD, but their paper marks (refined) were almost entirely worthless.

 

Just a few years before, a few hotdogs would have cost you ~90 paper marks (about $1 USD equivalent in 1921.) But just 2 years later, in 1923, you'd have to spend 4,210,500,000,000 paper marks (about $1 USD equivalent in 1923) for a couple hotdogs.

Did the price of hotdogs increase? Not at all. Either way you spent $1. The value of the paper mark simply decreased.

 

This is the same with ref and keys.

Keys remain relatively stable, while refined is constantly generated for free.

 

--

 

Trading for items in low tier trading is positively influenced for consumers by a low refined price (in $USD.)

Trading for profit (in terms of $USD), however, will take longer if you're trading extremely low tier items. This is because refined is $0.05-$0.10, so if you make a 1 refined profit, it is worth less (in $USD) than when ref was $0.50 or more.

The reason ref is worth less (in $USD) isn't because high tier traders are manipulating the economy to destroy noobs' hopes and dreams. It's because there is too much refined and too little demand for it.

Maybe that's the thing. Maybe refined does have no use. Respectable amount of points you put in that, but you forgot one thing: How are low tier traders with limited currency supposed to start out? I think what you're forgetting here is that low tier traders make up most of the player base of TF2. If they die, everyone else does, because there'll be no buyers for their items, and then what? Will valve have to import a playerbase? The point is that without steady prices, there's null to do. People are gonna be "cashing out" because they may predict a currency fall like what happened with earbuds. And what about keys? Keys are also unlimited as well, no doubt, because people purchase them every day and they're produced by Valve to put into people's backpacks. There's an endless supply akin to Refined metal.

[tardlife]

24 minutes ago, Alen said:

"She's on fire..."

No, but really, I just have a seriously low opinion of people who use bots, and it'll remain that way for a long time. I'm sure many low-tier traders hate bots too, as they were primarily (imo) the cause of key inflation.

 

All these bots coming here taking our jobs! 

Hmm...sounds familiar somehow....some...hoowwww..

Must be nice to have something to blame everything on, convenient to say the least.

[Scott Bakula]

42 minutes ago, Alen said:

That's where valve put an end to that, remember the Cheater's Lament?

 

The Cheater's Lament incident was years before the f2p update, and was targeting people who were using external idling programs. The only thing Valve did to shut down idlers after the f2p update hit was changing the drop system so a person could only obtain one item at a time and could not be running in text mode. However, that change was made in 2013, 2 years after the Uber update, so by then the damage was already done.

 

Quote

People are gonna be "cashing out" because they may predict a currency fall like what happened with earbuds.

 

Earbuds crashed because they lost their use. They only had value back in the older days because trades were limited to 8 items at a time. And with Earbuds (As well as Bill's and Max's), they were a promotional item as such had a finite quantity so people didn't have to worry about the market being flooded with them. However, as time passed, their usefulness came to an end as the trade UI improved and people were able to increase their backpack's size, as people found that they would rather have X amount of keys than an item that was worth between X-Y keys depending on the time of the year. Buds' death-knell however, was because of Valve. When they made buds marketable on the SCM, people just started dumping their buds on the market, and because they wanted a quicksell, listed theirs as the lowest price on the market. This turned a gradual decline into a nosedive.

 

Quote

Keys are also unlimited as well, no doubt, because people purchase them every day and they're produced by Valve to put into people's backpacks. There's an endless supply akin to Refined metal.

There is technically an endless supply, yes. But you also need to factor in two things:

1) Every key out there was purchased from the Mann Co. Store. They didn't just pop into a person's backpack; somebody had to fork over the 2 1/2 bucks to Valve for that key somewhere along the line.

2) Keys are being consumed at a rate about equal to the rate at which they are being introduced into the market. People like to unbox, that is the backbone of the economy from Valve's perspective. Every base strange, strange part, tiered cosmetic, and a whole lot of other items out there are because someone bought a key, and that key was used to open up a crate.

Companies with f2p models do not give a fuck about the people who don't spend money on their game; their focus are what's known in the industry as a "whale", or people who spend large amounts of money either at a constant rate or via huge purchases. These are the people who make the company money, everyone else is just krill being used to bait another whale.

[ksolis01]

1 hour ago, Alen said:

Maybe that's the thing. Maybe refined does have no use. Respectable amount of points you put in that, but you forgot one thing: How are low tier traders with limited currency supposed to start out? I think what you're forgetting here is that low tier traders make up most of the player base of TF2. If they die, everyone else does, because there'll be no buyers for their items, and then what? Will valve have to import a playerbase? The point is that without steady prices, there's null to do. People are gonna be "cashing out" because they may predict a currency fall like what happened with earbuds. And what about keys? Keys are also unlimited as well, no doubt, because people purchase them every day and they're produced by Valve to put into people's backpacks. There's an endless supply akin to Refined metal.

The player count has been pretty constant for the past few years. The playerbase is not low tier traders. It is f2p's, some people who buy stuff for keeps, high tier traders and then a bit of low tier traders. However, those low tier traders should just really end. It's the equivalent of picking pennies of the ground. Just stop and play the game for fun or put some money into the game. 

 

My question to you:

How the fuck is making a few pennies in an hour fun? Please tell me...

[Apo]

2 hours ago, tardlife said:

 

All these bots coming here taking our jobs! 

Hmm...sounds familiar somehow....some...hoowwww..

Must be nice to have something to blame everything on, convenient to say the least.

 

3 hours ago, Alen said:

How are low tier traders with limited currency supposed to start out?

Spend $5 and get literally every weapon and a bunch of cosmetics + change.

 

3 hours ago, Alen said:

I think what you're forgetting here is that low tier traders make up most of the player base of TF2. If they die, everyone else does, because there'll be no buyers for their items, and then what?

I'd say most low tier traders buy keys with real money to buy the items they want. Refined, and other items being worth less compared to a key lets them get more bang for their buck.

For profit traders who make no investment (or a reallly small investment) are gonna have a bad time. And they should. The people who invest money should get more reward than people who don't.

If it wasn't that way there'd be way less incentive to spend money. And, if there's less incentive to spend money, the economy suffers.

 

3 hours ago, Alen said:

Keys are also unlimited as well, no doubt, because people purchase them every day and they're produced by Valve to put into people's backpacks. There's an endless supply akin to Refined metal.

Keys are theoretically unlimited, yes. But to say they are akin to refined metal is wrong.

Refined metal is produced for free, and is constantly brought into the economy from people playing/idling.

Keys are only brought into the game by players spending real money.

The second part of this is that people constantly use keys to unbox, whereas the only way to get rid of refined is to craft it away. The incentive to unbox with keys is also way greater than the incentive to craft with refined.

I can guarantee you that refined metal flows into the game at a way higher rate than that at which keys are bought.

 

Keys will only come into the game if people think it is worth it to buy keys at that point and time. (The keys also have to be bought from the mann co store to introduce more keys. Many/most keys are bought via SCM / Marketplace, which just recirculates keys)

Refined metal will always be constantly flowing in to the economy, no matter what. (as long as at least 1 person plays tf2.)

[Scootaloo]

Is it possible for there to be a pop-up for first time forum visitors that explains the reason keys keep going up is because of the lack of a good metal sink and have them verify that they actually read and understood the entire thing ala Scrap.tf's Companion Cube Badge? Getting a bit tired of the 40000 "Keys are going up and we don't know exactly why" threads.

[Alen]

59 minutes ago, Scootaloo said:

Is it possible for there to be a pop-up for first time forum visitors that explains the reason keys keep going up is because of the lack of a good metal sink and have them verify that they actually read and understood the entire thing ala Scrap.tf's Companion Cube Badge? Getting a bit tired of the 40000 "Keys are going up and we don't know exactly why" threads.

I also wonder if there can ever be a pop-up that asks you if you're going to make a gif for a six year old show with a target demographic of 4-10 year olds. But you can't have everything, can you?

[Alen]

1 hour ago, Apo said:

 

Spend $5 and get literally every weapon and a bunch of cosmetics + change.

 

I'd say most low tier traders buy keys with real money to buy the items they want. Refined, and other items being worth less compared to a key lets them get more bang for their buck.

For profit traders who make no investment (or a reallly small investment) are gonna have a bad time. And they should. The people who invest money should get more reward than people who don't.

If it wasn't that way there'd be way less incentive to spend money. And, if there's less incentive to spend money, the economy suffers.

 

Keys are theoretically unlimited, yes. But to say they are akin to refined metal is wrong.

Refined metal is produced for free, and is constantly brought into the economy from people playing/idling.

Keys are only brought into the game by players spending real money.

The second part of this is that people constantly use keys to unbox, whereas the only way to get rid of refined is to craft it away. The incentive to unbox with keys is also way greater than the incentive to craft with refined.

I can guarantee you that refined metal flows into the game at a way higher rate than that at which keys are bought.

 

Keys will only come into the game if people think it is worth it to buy keys at that point and time. (The keys also have to be bought from the mann co store to introduce more keys. Many/most keys are bought via SCM / Marketplace, which just recirculates keys)

Refined metal will always be constantly flowing in to the economy, no matter what. (as long as at least 1 person plays tf2.)

Did you not just hear me say limited currency?

I'm done trying to explain it, you're just reverting back to old arguments. This obviously isn't going anywhere because you're ignoring the things that I say and you expect me to listen to you.

[Alen]

2 hours ago, ksolis01 said:

The player count has been pretty constant for the past few years. The playerbase is not low tier traders. It is f2p's, some people who buy stuff for keeps, high tier traders and then a bit of low tier traders. However, those low tier traders should just really end. It's the equivalent of picking pennies of the ground. Just stop and play the game for fun or put some money into the game. 

 

My question to you:

How the fuck is making a few pennies in an hour fun? Please tell me...

Look, I craft three runes and mauls as a fun little experiment if you will. It's REAL fun because I get to appreciate the little things and get to enjoy the times when I actually do manage to craft one. The excitement and feeling of making something rare and profiting of of it, no matter how miniscule, can brighten someone's day up by a lot. I know it does me a lot of good.

If your way of keeping the economy alive is to have people play the game or put money into it because you don't want them if they don't supply you with money, then that's some... unique mindset you have.

[Alen]

This thread is going nowhere, no need to keep it open as it just causes more and more arguments. Locking it.