High Tier Economy will go Down

[ksolis01]

Asides from the effects like Halloween and Invasion, these keyless crates are creating hype and unboxing will probably be at an all time high, so high tier first gens will be unboxed. There is also the possibility of strange unusual. Strange Burning Team Captain is a possibility.

[HarryG]

But that's extremely unlikely even if it is technically possible....

[Weedoof]

these keyless crates increase the chances of high tier first gen being unboxed

 

I'm going to stop you right there.

 

High tier first gens have been unboxable through standard crates ever since series #90. Unusual effect drop rates for those crates were no different than they are for these ones. A decent amount of god-tier items (Sunbeams KE, scorching Crown of the old Kingdom, you name it) have come out of those crates but their economy is no different than it was before.

 

And the odds of getting a strange unusual are also extremely low. Historically, the odds of getting a strange out of one of these crates has been ~10-15%. The odds of unboxing an unusual is ~0.66%. The odds of getting both of those at once, mathematically, are 0.066%. Meaning only around 1 in 1500 unboxings will be strange unusual.

And the odds of getting any specific unusual with that? Forget it. The chances are so low that you can pretty much forget about it.

I'll calculate it anyway, though, since I'm curious myself.

 

 

Got the number.

Let's say you unbox a multiclass crate. There are ~50 hats you can get with it, to start off. Combine that with the odds of getting an unusual, which is about 1/150. Then take into account that you can get ~50 different effects. And if you want it to be strange, that's an extra 1/10 chance right there. Multiply all that together, and...

 

You have a 0.0000493% of getting any specific strange unusual.

That means that you will get your specific unusual 1 out of 2,025,000 times.

 

Don't get your hopes up.

[A Ninja]

I could see all classes dropping a bit from people unboxing the multi class crate, a beams crone was already unboxed.

[Squelch]

I could see all classes dropping a bit from people unboxing the multi class crate, a beams crone was already unboxed.

Damn m8

 

Also would these new unlocked crates cause key prices to go down? (Thought about this because now you don't really need keys to try and get unusuals or good cosmetics. You can still use them to get skins, stranges, or strange parts.)

[ksolis01]

Edited my post. Was being lazy with my wording.

[♣ Scorchen ♣]

Apparently a PE Ritzy Rick's Hair Fixative was unboxed from the sniper crate which is pretty insane..

[ksolis01]

Apparently a PE Ritzy Rick's Hair Fixative was unboxed from the sniper crate which is pretty insane..

https://www.reddit.com/r/tf2/comments/4rs4ba/so_my_friend_just_unboxed_an_unusual_ritzy_ricks/