=TNW= Maximus™ Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Who would it be? What are the chances that someone would run as a 3rd party? What are the chances that someone like that would win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vrakos Anthrakir Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 odds to win for whoever it would be would probably be pretty poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KERPKEK Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 well if we're talking about bernie, presidencies have been won on a contested convention in the past (I believe FDR was one of them), but I don't know how well a third party run would go for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarryG Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
λngelღмander Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 If any third parties run, they're going to draw votes away from whichever establishment they are most like. It will only hurt their cause because they'll without a doubt cause the party they're partial to to lose votes and probably the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
=TNW= Maximus™ Posted May 10, 2016 Author Share Posted May 10, 2016 odds to win for whoever it would be would probably be pretty poor splitting the vote though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caboose Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 If someone from Party A doesn't get the nomination, he'll go off and start his own party. But because he was Party A and had supporters from there, it splits the party since now they have to battle with Party C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
=TNW= Maximus™ Posted May 10, 2016 Author Share Posted May 10, 2016 If any third parties run, they're going to draw votes away from whichever establishment they are most like. It will only hurt their cause because they'll without a doubt cause the party they're partial to to lose votes and probably the election. Right, but lets say bernie and trump get the nominations, some people would vote bernie and some for trump. The interesting part, there are definetly people who wouldn't vote for either... If a third party were to run, he would get those votes, and could win (trump and bernie spoil each other) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
λngelღмander Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Right, but lets say bernie and trump get the nominations, some people would vote bernie and some for trump. The interesting part, there are definetly people who wouldn't vote for either... If a third party were to run, he would get those votes, and could win (trump and bernie spoil each other) Let's say hillary and trump go at it. Bernie, discontent with defeat, defects (see what I did there? ) to form the Socialist party and runs too. The democrat vote will be split around half and half, even if trump only got 40% (which would have left a landslide victory for the dems) would leave trump with the presidency. Or say Cruz decides to run third party as a tea party conservative or something, (which I know cruz isn't going to do but this is hypothetical, hes already said he'd support the nominee) that would also split the vote half and half for the republicans and make the democratic nominee the winner. I don't think there is any room for a moderate party that would gain votes equally from both sides, if anyone runs third party they're going to steal votes from their side and ruin the election. And it doesn't look like bernie can win now. He won't have the majority by the convention and it's unlikely that Hillary could be usurped. It's looking like hillary v trump, which is going to be a REAL show, because they're going to sling more shit than any two candidates have ever slung in history (probably). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperqube Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 I think, in the current situation, idealy a fourway would be best: for example Bernie-Hillary-Kasich*-Trump (*: or another republican establishment candidat) (while hard to set up, this could theoretically happen, if the Republican party kicks out Trump, who then decides to run as 3rd party member. At that point, Bernie can also enter, without splitting the vote) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
=TNW= Maximus™ Posted May 10, 2016 Author Share Posted May 10, 2016 -snip- Yeah, for sure. If a third party were to run (and wanted to win), it would have to be someone moderate to pull votes from both sides. I am interested to see what happens in the general election though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silencedotmid Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Bernie has said that he's not running as a third party when he loses the nomination, which is good since he needs to direct his supporters towards Hillary for the general elections. Of course, there are some actual third parties in the running. The libertarian party, which got a bit over 1% of the national vote last year, should have a shot at improving their reputation. With an election between two disliked candidates, if the libertarians offered up a reasonable fiscally conservative yet socially progressive candidate, they could siphon away votes from both sides. Too bad they're squandering away their chances, since they're not even trying to end up on the ballot for all 50 states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utsoob Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 I think, in the current situation, idealy a fourway would be best: for example Bernie-Hillary-Kasich*-Trump (*: or another republican establishment candidat) (while hard to set up, this could theoretically happen, if the Republican party kicks out Trump, who then decides to run as 3rd party member. At that point, Bernie can also enter, without splitting the vote) There is absolutely no way that it's a four way vote. The remaining Republicans have dropped out/suspended their campaigns, and it's well into the "even if he loses the first ballot we have to choose him" territory in terms of Delegates. Now the best way is a ménage à trois sort of deal, with Bernie running third party (idk who) to split the democrat vote. Other than that, Bernie is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
t0night Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 i think bernie knows enough to know he's not going to win a 3rd party campaign, and would rather not risk a trump presidency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperqube Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 i think bernie knows enough to know he's not going to win a 3rd party campaign, and would rather not risk a trump presidency. ^ This. Simply because everyone understands the concept of "splitting the vote" Dispite Utsoob 'laughing harder', I think the chances are smaller Bernie would risk splitting the vote, then there be a republican heavyweight who says "Trump? not my candidat' - and launch a 'suicide' campaign; not to win, but to show the electorate that not all republicans are like that, and hope to save the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
=TNW= Maximus™ Posted May 14, 2016 Author Share Posted May 14, 2016 ^ This. Simply because everyone understands the concept of "splitting the vote" Dispite Utsoob 'laughing harder', I think the chances are smaller Bernie would risk splitting the vote, then there be a republican heavyweight who says "Trump? not my candidat' - and launch a 'suicide' campaign; not to win, but to show the electorate that not all republicans are like that, and hope to save the party. I don't know if Bernie is too rational about politics and theory ​i mean, he's a socialist If he loses the nomination, he'd probably run as a third party. Just like Trump, he pulls his voters from people who haven't voted before, so if he splits, he might take some party democrats, but mostly from the outside, therefore, not taking votes away from Hilary (the people who vote for Bernie would probably not vote for Hilary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NewWizard Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Dispite Utsoob 'laughing harder', I think the chances are smaller Bernie would risk splitting the vote, then there be a republican heavyweight who says "Trump? not my candidat' - and launch a 'suicide' campaign; not to win, but to show the electorate that not all republicans are like that, and hope to save the party. As if anyone actually thinks that Trump represents republican establishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
=TNW= Maximus™ Posted May 15, 2016 Author Share Posted May 15, 2016 As if anyone actually thinks that Trump represents republican establishment. I don't think anyone does xd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperqube Posted May 15, 2016 Share Posted May 15, 2016 As if anyone actually thinks that Trump represents republican establishment.Where did I say "establishment"? As nominee, he will represent the republican party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utsoob Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 Where did I say "establishment"? As nominee, he will represent the republican party. What do you think the establishment means mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperqube Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 What do you think the establishment means mate In the english language, establishment denotes the dominant group (or elite) that hold the power of authority in an orginanisation. Why? what do you think establishment means? elites of an organisation =/= the organisation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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