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do you have money to spare and like gambling?


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edit: nvm, it's been proven wrong


TL;DR $16 FOR A 50% CHANCE OF WINNING $70 (or losing $10)


I want to prove my hypothesis

Via trade-up, you can get Catastrophic Companions ($95, or $82 without scm taxes, in unque quality)


There's only one assassin-grade (and no elite) item in the Tough Break Collection

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/A%20Well%20Wrapped%20Hat(currently $1.28)


When trading up, the chances of getting an item from an specific collection are calculated depending on the number of inputs from that collection.

i.e. if you put in 9 Tough Break items and 1 Gargoyle item, chances of getting a Gargoyle elite-grade item are 10%.

However, there's no existing elite-grade Tough Break Collection items, and it's impossible to trade up for nothing. Therefore, I believe that when attempting to trade up with such a combination, your chances of getting a Gargoyle item are 100%, and thus, there's a 50% chance of getting Catastrophic Companions (and a 50% chance of getting Arthropod's Aspect [$5.81])


The three assassin-grade items from the Gargoyle Collection are relatively expensive





Buying 9 Well Wrapped Hats would cost ~ $12 at most, add up one of the Gargoyle items and you get 10 items at roughly $16

So if my point is correct, you can either get (after taxes) a Companions ($82) or Aspect ($5), which is either a $75 gain or a $11 loss.

That means, even if you only get cats only once out of 8 attempts, you'd still be roughly breaking even (or end up with a minimal loss). Given chances are 1/2, it's unlikely you'll lose so many times consecutively.


So, who's up for it?


Alternatively, if you're as rich as Trump, you can try doing it with the stranges.

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20A%20Well%20Wrapped%20Hat($6-10, average ~8 if you buy the 9 cheapest)






http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Arthropod%27s%20Aspect($27, ~$23 after taxes) - roughly $70 loss



Current cheapest strange cats are listed at $370, though highest sale was $170 about 2 months ago.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56bfbc80dea9e9c0501222f3- strange cats have been offered as much as 150 keys pure, which on community market  would be around $320 after taxes. That translates to a 50% chance of winning $220.

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Sure I'm up. I've let you gamble with my keys before and it worked out brilliantly


but if you do it yourself your luck might be better than mine  :ph34r:

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Wouldn't by sheer chances make it so that you never lose money ?  :lol:


As in you can infinitely try to do it and always get profit out of it, because if you get 50% to win $70 or lose $10 then the chances of losing $10 7 times in a row is really slim, and you have to be really unlucky for this to happen.


That would mean tons of people would've won the companions and its price would've gotten considerably lower by now, it was literally something too good to be true.  :lol:

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but if you do it yourself your luck might be better than mine :ph34r:

Nah mate we should get bucket to do it



Oh it doesn't work. Should have know better than to expect you to come up with something brilliant :P

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Oh it doesn't work. Should have know better than to expect you to come up with something brilliant :P

hahaha you little shit

you know you really should lend me some more keys :D

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