Tako Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Simple question, has the key price finally stabilized? Most of the time it goes up, then down, then up again. But this is the longest I have seen the price stay at around 16 ref. Also do you think it will go higher eventually? Do you think the price is too high or too low? (Also a note to the rich TF2 players,) Keep in mind that many people do not have hundreds and hundreds of keys maybe can't have the price go higher than it already is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knavesmith Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 If the price was too high/low, then you'd be seeing a shift in the key market, wouldn't you? The key price will probably drop a bit during the Halloween update in favor of the new keys (if there is one this year) but rise up around Christmas when Valve launches their winter sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Bakula Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The key price will probably drop a bit during the Halloween update in favor of the new keys (if there is one this year) but rise up around Christmas when Valve launches their winter sale. I think you mean the other way around. Keys shoot up during Halloween as everyone tries to unbox for the Halloween unusuals, and then drop during the winter sale when everyone's liquidating their assets for more games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I think you mean the other way around. Keys shoot up during Halloween as everyone tries to unbox for the Halloween unusuals, and then drop during the winter sale when everyone's liquidating their assets for more games. For some reason I'm being confused by the Halloween one. People rush to buy Halloween keys so the actual value of the keys drop in comparison to the Halloween keys? Unless people buy Halloween keys to exchange for normal keys so normal keys rise. Based on bp.tf history, it seems to remain stable during Halloween though. Unless you meant in SCM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knavesmith Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I think you mean the other way around. Keys shoot up during Halloween as everyone tries to unbox for the Halloween unusuals, and then drop during the winter sale when everyone's liquidating their assets for more games.I think you're referring to the SCM price of keys. Yes, the price of keys on the SCM does go down during the winter sale, but in Refined, people are buying Keys like crazy, so its price rises. I'm not entirely sure about Halloween, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
♠Derpeh♤ Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 For some reason I'm being confused by the Halloween one. People rush to buy Halloween keys so the actual value of the keys drop in comparison to the Halloween keys? Unless people buy Halloween keys to exchange for normal keys so normal keys rise. Based on bp.tf history, it seems to remain stable during Halloween though. Unless you meant in SCM. Traditionally during the Halloween period any unbox has the chance of getting the limited edition effects (and past halloween effects) the halloween keys have this chance as well but most of it's unboxes are the halloween themed items which are traditionally bad looking and worthless when the novelty wears off so people prefer to spam unbox for 1gen unusuals with the added bonus of a possible halloween effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacobmeister Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Keys are normally pretty stable, bar any major events like Halloween or Smissmas or whatever. Then again, you can say that about most items, right? I expected a drop come Halloween, due to people trying to offload their keys for the new crates and keys (and that drop is evident especially on SCM) but it's looked rather stable in refined, which is interesting. Oh well. But it's impossible for keys to maintain a constant value, or any currency for that matter. Taking a quick look at the classifieds, I'm seeing only three sellers at 16. Perhaps it needs a rise up to 16.11 flat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polar Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I'm not entirely sure about Halloween, though. All those really solid 2nd and 3rd gen crates that no one wants to unbox during the rest of the year are amazing during Halloween because they actually give good effects. So not only do you return ~60-70% value on what you uncrate, but since the rare unboxes are halloween effects instead of 2nd or 3rd gen effects, you might actually be able to recoup your value of the key+crate with an average hat. And if you get lucky you can get a really valuable hat. That's why keys tend to do well both in dollar value and against all other items during halloween. Not sure about this year, though, without an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knavesmith Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 All those really solid 2nd and 3rd gen crates that no one wants to unbox during the rest of the year are amazing during Halloween because they actually give good effects. So not only do you return ~60-70% value on what you uncrate, but since the rare unboxes are halloween effects instead of 2nd or 3rd gen effects, you might actually be able to recoup your value of the key+crate with an average hat. And if you get lucky you can get a really valuable hat. That's why keys tend to do well both in dollar value and against all other items during halloween. Not sure about this year, though, without an event. Huh, I thought that was a rumor. Now I know it's actually true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polar Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Huh, I thought that was a rumor. Now I know it's actually true. I unboxed 350 crates. Got only a ghastly gonzila but still recovered about 80% of my investment value. So yeah, unboxing during halloween carries with it the lowest risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrW Zest Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I unboxed 350 crates. Got only a ghastly gonzila but still recovered about 80% of my investment value. So yeah, unboxing during halloween carries with it the lowest risk. Hey Polar , could you be more specific on the crate numbers ? I really want to do some unboxing this halloween and I want to make it in the most sensible way . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polar Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Hey Polar , could you be more specific on the crate numbers ? I really want to do some unboxing this halloween and I want to make it in the most sensible way . Prices have changed a lot. Here were my steps: (1) Narrow down to ~10-15 crates based on this: http://www.trade.tf/crates (2) Re-do calculations myself based on SCM prices to get the 5 best crates (bp.tf can be off by quite a bit, especially on rare strange parts) (3) Set up a ton of 3-5 cent buy orders for my 5 favorite crates. I want to say that the crates I did were 28, 31, 33, 38, 42, and director's cut reel (make sure you know the combo for the four best outcomes). My guess is that crate 42 is going to be the best now. Headshots is >1 key and buildings is >>8 ref. But in general, it looks like you won't do better than 50% this time around. I remember when I did it, I was losing only ~3-4 ref per crate. Looks like that number has shot up to 8 ref now on the best ones. Last thing I'll say is maybe it's best not to overthink it. I unboxed 350 and got one crap hat. Plenty of people unbox random crates that don't have a good payoff and get a god-tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liddojunior Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Prices have changed a lot. Here were my steps: (1) Narrow down to ~10-15 crates based on this: http://www.trade.tf/crates (2) Re-do calculations myself based on SCM prices to get the 5 best crates (bp.tf can be off by quite a bit, especially on rare strange parts) (3) Set up a ton of 3-5 cent buy orders for my 5 favorite crates. I want to say that the crates I did were 28, 31, 33, 38, 42, and director's cut reel (make sure you know the combo for the four best outcomes). My guess is that crate 42 is going to be the best now. Headshots is >1 key and buildings is >>8 ref. But in general, it looks like you won't do better than 50% this time around. I remember when I did it, I was losing only ~3-4 ref per crate. Looks like that number has shot up to 8 ref now on the best ones. Last thing I'll say is maybe it's best not to overthink it. I unboxed 350 and got one crap hat. Plenty of people unbox random crates that don't have a good payoff and get a god-tier. Polar is right, I was able to make more than double my investment last year in halloween, using .03$ crates. That had good items, but were hardly unboxed in large amounts to get the good items. Granted I got good unusual unboxes, but with the items themselves I was able to make close to my key amount spent back. I'm hoping for another halloween event this year, I really like the new unusual effects. The problem is that many new unusual owners try to over price hats, leading to them not selling, leading to people looking down on them when they are perfectly nice hats that sell for decent amounts. I'm actually hoping to just sell over paypal during the event cause key demand usually goes up and so does the price you can sell at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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