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Keys and metal


Wes.mShift

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I don't know if anyone's thought of it this way before anyways as we all know refined metal is going down in money value hence the amount of metal needed to buy a key is rising

 

Anyways, one of the main reasons(at least I've heard) why refined metal and metal in general is going down in value is because theres an infinite amount to the amount of metal we can 'craft' so in other words there's so much metal the price is going down (I can't think of a word for it I think it's 'deflation' of value).

 

But how many keys do we have? A lot I presume but you might think "Well, people unbox stuff so the amount of keys keep going up and down but there's a Mann co store so in other words there's also an infinite amount of keys in the economy hence making keys "less rare" and lowering the price. By now you might be thinking "Well there's still a TON of metal out there; by all means it's true but also think about this; people can craft 3 refined metal together a "craft hat" so in other words, the amount of metal in the market is also going up and down more so up than down. Anyways the point I'm trying to make is the main reason metal is going up is because there's an infinite amount of it but there is also an infinite amount of keys; so shouldn't that make it less rare

 

Sorry if my thoughts are totally wrong and I would be happy to receive comments about this

-Thanks,

Wes

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That's really cool :P

There's still an infinite amount and there's still people that are going to buy them and trade them hence making more keys in the economy thus making keys less rare like I said in my post

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but also think about this; people can craft 3 refined metal together a "craft hat"

 

Except practically nobody does that as it's cheaper to get to craft hats for 1-1.22 ref apiece and smelt them together.

 

Really, the only practical use metal gets currently is from smelting spy and melee tokens to try to get sharp dressers. For every other use of metal crafting, it's just cheaper to trade. This means that most metal doesn't leave the market, leading to the decrease in value.

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Yes that is true but how would we get more craft hats my point is people will keep crafting especially when new hats/miss come out

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Yes that is true but how would we get more craft hats my point is people will keep crafting especially when new hats/miss come out

Regular drops, genuine promotions, and opening crates are also sources of craft hats.

 

As for crating for new hats/miscs, that's an incredibly small window people craft for, as once you get past craft #100, it tends to be pointless to craft. And even then, they'll drain places like scrap.tf or the many other craft hat bankers out there before using raw metal.

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Keys aren't only expensive due to rarity. If rarity was the only thing that mattered then why are buds, one of the most common cosmetic items, also one of the most expensive?

 

Usefulness, demand, and rarity all play a part in an items value, and they're all tied together. 

 

Usefulness:

  • Keys can be used to unbox new stranges (the only way to get stranges), and can also be used to unbox an unusual potentially worth $4500 USD. 
  • Refined can be used to craft hats which initially could be worth up to 5~ keys, but then after a bunch of been crafted they drop to like 8 Ref max. Also, almost any hat/misc that can be crafted can also be found during random drops, or purchased from the store. 

Demand

  • Keys: People realize there can be a lot of profit in unboxing if you get a strange while its brand new, or get an unusual. 
  • Ref: Crafting, most of the desired hats are already old, and the new ones aren't very enticing (i.e. they're very similar to previous ones); also, as ref is free theres a lot more of it around then there are keys, which leads to hats being more common, which leads to them not being very profitable. Resulting in a higher demand for keys. 

Rarity 

  • Keys can ONLY be obtained via purchasing one from the Mannco. Store for $2.50 USD. 
  • Ref can be obtained by selling a hat/crafting weapons found in drops. (Completely free)
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