Question about new Backpack.tf feature.

[Leeo282]

Hi, this is my first post.

 

Something really bug me today and I had to ask about it.

It seem the new feature in item information allow us to see number of item in existence in past history.

At first, I was playing around with it and see the effect of duping have the price of big items. 2000 max duped? crazy

Then, thing got fishy. I saw number of keys continuously increased since beginning of time. I always though key been decreasing since Steam market, but watever, I didn't keep track of key existence.

 

Finally, something make me really question these existence number. The savage crates. I been kinda keeping an eye on # of crate #30. Couple months ago, I recorded that #30 been consistently decreasing in around 5-10 every weeks. After checking it for couple months, I just assume the number will decrease from then on. However, the existence # chart don't make any sense. It said there are 4088 in existence today and in April 20, 2012 with no change in between. 

http://backpack.tf/stats/5068/6/30 Check it out.

This is impossible according to my record.

Even if you don't believe me, there is no way that not a single crate in open in more than a year. These data are totally make up in the past!

What is going on here?! I almost though this is a April Fool Jokes before I realized that we are in August. 

 

Maybe I read something wrong. Can someone explain?

 

 

Edit update:

It turn out "ITEMS THAT ARE CRAFTED, USED OR DELETED CANNOT BE COUNTED" from "Brad Pitt," which mean consumable items existence # chart are inaccurate.

I will continues to watch existence # daily to see the changes. It turn out that the existence count are updated daily or even faster, not weeks as I initially thought.

As of now, key seem to be going up in #, 4 #30 are opened, and 23 #40 are open today. I hope key # increase today is only some random fluctuation. If it is a trend, I fear a possible crash.

 

Personally record the existence #.

8/12:

Key :  597581

#30 - 4088

#40 - 24282

 

8/13

key: 599083 to 599786

#30 - 4084

#40 - 24259

 

8/14

key: 600194 (Still increasing!)

#30 - 4085 (? increased by one!)

#40 - 24215 

 

8/15

key: 604690 (Jesus! I never seen money print this fast)

#30 - 4083

#40 - 24196

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

The reason is simple. Stats.tf doesn't update constantly. There are millions of backpacks, so it takes time for it to scan them all. So, by the time its done weeks could've passed since the first one was scanned. Its quite obvious how this could lead to skewed results. 

[Leeo282]

The reason is simple. Stats.tf doesn't update constantly. There are millions of backpacks, so it takes time for it to scan them all. So, by the time its done weeks could've passed since the first one was scanned. Its quite obvious how this could lead to skewed results. 

However, that will only explain why it take a week or two to update the existence #. I notice and understand that when I was first watching the #30 existence count. 

[Jymotion]

The reason is simple. Stats.tf doesn't update constantly. There are millions of backpacks, so it takes time for it to scan them all. So, by the time its done weeks could've passed since the first one was scanned. Its quite obvious how this could lead to skewed results. 

 

17 months between updates?  and the number is exactly the same?  

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

17 months between updates?  and the number is exactly the same?  

It appears that it hasn't scanned anything since april 2012. Look at the graph, it shows that the last scan point was april. For whatever reason that may be. 

[Jymotion]

Look at the graph

 

I did.  that's where I got my approximation from  I'm curious what that reason is.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

I did.  that's where I got my approximation from  I'm curious what that reason is.

It could be because thats about the time crate 30 stopped dropping. Stats.tf might not scan for an item that stops dropping.

 

Yep, pretty sure thats it, check crate 40 graph http://backpack.tf/stats/5068/6/40 . Its last update was around the time it stopped dropping. 

 

And the Fall Crate http://backpack.tf/stats/5080/6/48 .

 

It doesn't appear to be true with hats however (unique trophy belt was recently updated).

[Jymotion]

Stats.tf might not scan for an item that stops dropping.

Yep, pretty sure thats it

 

If true, then I feel the same way about this as I do about the "drop rates" for crates.  I'd rather show nothing at all than blatant misinformation

[Leeo282]

Even it had stop scanning for more than a year. It is ridiculous for the # to be the same as the time of "last scan" till now.

Check out Salvage#30 and #40. "last scan#" last year is same as the recent scan #. 

 

 

If true, then I feel the same way about this as I do about the "drop rates" for crates.  I'd rather show nothing at all than blatant misinformation

Not just nothing happen in between, The number should have decrease from the number last year. 

I personally kept an eye on the number couple months ago and I know people who had opened #30 this year for sure.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

If true, then I feel the same way about this as I do about the "drop rates" for crates.  I'd rather show nothing at all than blatant misinformation

Agreed, but as far as i can tell, its only true for crates as the unique trophy belt was recently scanned. 

 

@Leeo, there is no recent scan. Check the dates. There are 2 lines, when you see a dot on the red line, thats when the item was scanned. The only scans that happen after April 2nd are pricing scans. 

[Leeo282]

Agreed, but as far as i can tell, its only true for crates as the unique trophy belt was recently scanned. 

 

@Leeo, there is no recent scan. Check the dates. There are 2 lines, when you see a dot on the red line, thats when the item was scanned. The only scans that happen after April 2nd are pricing scans. 

 

Dude, I know they scan this every week or two. Couple months ago, I watch the existence# go down. 

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Dude, I know they scan this every week or two. Couple months ago, I watch the existence# go down. 

Try reading what i wrote. I assure you they don't. Look at the graph. The last time it was scanned was april 2, 2012. You have to realize, there are 2 graphs, one for the number in existence, and one for the price. And they are NOT connected. 

[Leeo282]

Try reading what i wrote. I assure you they don't. Look at the graph. The last time it was scanned was april 2, 2012. You have to realize, there are 2 graphs, one for the number in existence, and one for the price. And they are NOT connected. 

I see, the graph is even more misleading then.

The current scan date said April 2, 2012.

And yes, I know there are two graphs.... I thought the latest dot correspond to the date where it is positioned.

Also, I am sure as hell that I didn't not dream what I did months ago.

 

I guess we will have to wait for an answer.

I will keep watch on the number again for next couple weeks.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

I see, the graph is even more misleading then.

The current scan date said April 2, 2012.

Well, I am sure as hell that I didn't not dream what I did months ago.

 

I guess we will have to wait for an answer.

I will keep watch on the number again for next couple weeks.

I wouldn't count on it updating. Festive Winter Crate #6 hasn't been updated since January 3, 2011.

[Brad Pitt]

You guys are not reading the important line that says "ITEMS THAT ARE CRAFTED, USED OR DELETED CANNOT BE COUNTED"

 

What this means is if a crate from January 2011 is used, it will be removed from the January 2011 count. Basically, stats.tf doesn't know that crate has ever existed anymore since it simply deletes stuff that disappears from its database. So you'll notice that the graphs never go down. If someone went and uncrated 100 crate #50s, they'd simply vanish form the graph altogether.

 

Good night.

[Leeo282]

You guys are not reading the important line that says "ITEMS THAT ARE CRAFTED, USED OR DELETED CANNOT BE COUNTED"

 

What this means is if a crate from January 2011 is used, it will be removed from the January 2011 count. Basically, stats.tf doesn't know that crate has ever existed anymore since it simply deletes stuff that disappears from its database. So you'll notice that the graphs never go down. If someone went and uncrated 100 crate #50s, they'd simply vanish form the graph altogether.

 

Good night.

Thanks, that would explain what is going on and why the highest count of #30 is so low and exact same as latest count.

If this is true, then the application of this chart will be weaker.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

You guys are not reading the important line that says "ITEMS THAT ARE CRAFTED, USED OR DELETED CANNOT BE COUNTED"

 

What this means is if a crate from January 2011 is used, it will be removed from the January 2011 count. Basically, stats.tf doesn't know that crate has ever existed anymore since it simply deletes stuff that disappears from its database. So you'll notice that the graphs never go down. If someone went and uncrated 100 crate #50s, they'd simply vanish form the graph altogether.

 

Good night.

However, its still quite misleading that the graph never updates. Plus, why would an item that is used be deleted from a previous scan? that makes no sense. Thats like saying once a person dies, they disappear from any census that was taken during his/her life. 

[Leeo282]

However, its still quite misleading that the graph never updates. Plus, why would an item that is used be deleted from a previous scan? that makes no sense. Thats like saying once a person dies, they disappear from any census that was taken during his/her life. 

 

Yea, this will make consumable items chart very misleading. They really need to add some kind of super obvious disclaimer.

 

This lead back to one of my original concern, Key count.

I didn't not keep track of key existence #, so I don't know if key # had been increasing or decreasing.

Now, the chart practically became a chart of key of the past that were not used by today. It is useless to measure total number of keys in the past.

So, does anyone kept a personal record the key count? and can you share if key # had been increasing or decreasing since steam market?

[Brad Pitt]

You can see new keys are still getting bought though, and this is great information. stats.tf was originally created to track how many items of x existed, not over time. The database is already quite large -- 240 million items? If it did track every item that existed once and were deleted, imagine the number of "total" refined metal that would have existed over time, with people crafting and smelting every day, it'd be quite insane. Now, are you interested in how many refined metal existed, or how many refined metal exist today?

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

You can see new keys are still getting bought though, and this is great information. stats.tf was originally created to track how many items of x existed, not over time. The database is already quite large -- 240 million items? If it did track every item that existed once and were deleted, imagine the number of "total" refined metal that would have existed over time, with people crafting and smelting every day, it'd be quite insane. Now, are you interested in how many refined metal existed, or how many refined metal exist today?

I, and most people who look at the ref/key graphs, want to be able to see how many keys were around in January 2013 vs. August 2013. Just listing the amount of keys/ref in the market atm doesn't really do anything for anyone. 

 

Keeping track of how many are in existence at an instant without anything to compare it to is kind of pointless, unless you're referring to a rare item, which is marketed as a rare item (i.e. something thats 1 of 10).

[KingOfHeart]

http://backpack.tf/stats/221/11/0 < how is the Strange Mackral increasing? Is it counting dupes?

 

O.o Ae you saying that the key and metal count will never go down because it doesn't count it being deleted?

You've got to let the public know then! The fact we keep seeing more and more metal makes us think we're being flooded with it!

[Leeo282]

http://backpack.tf/stats/221/11/0 < how is the Strange Mackral increasing? Is it counting dupes?

 

O.o Ae you saying that the key and metal count will never go down because it doesn't count it being deleted?

You've got to let the public know then! The fact we keep seeing more and more metal makes us think we're being flooded with it!

Well, people still open crates, so more can be created.

 

About the second part, you might want to read the Brad Pitts"s comments more carefully.

[KingOfHeart]

Ahh, the fish part makes sence.

 

Can someone answer me one thing then...1639548 < is this refined counter true(at least close?) or do we have way way less?

[Jymotion]

Now, are you interested in how many refined metal existed, or how many refined metal exist today?

 

If you can only provide the latter, then it doesn't make sense to have a graph.  I feel the same way about this feature as I do about the estimate drop rates of crates.  you are presenting data in a manner than leads the user to believe it is something that it isn't.