Gren Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 This is for the people that come on here asking for advice on how to go about getting into unusual trading. In my opinion, the answer is "don't". The reasons I'm listing below are of course my own, they are subjective and many of you won't agree with them. I'm going to write them down nonetheless. I'm also including a TLDR summary of every point seeing how most people here evidently don't like to read. 1. Too many hats & effects The amount of unusuals in TF2 increases literally on a daily basis. Sure, some hats leave the economy (e.g. collector's backpack), but the inflow of new hats is greater than the outflow of hats. This creates several problems, but they can all be summed up in terms of raising supply whereas demand stays relatively stable. The result of this is for example, that it gets harder and harder to sell your hat(s), simply because there are more and more options for the buyer. It also means that it gets more difficult to get your desired price for your hat, because it gets easier and easier for the buyer to locate a seller that's willing to let his hat go for less. TLDR: Constantly increasing supply, relatively stable demand. Not a good situation for the seller. 2. The price of keys The rapid increase in the price of keys has a negative impact on the price of hats since the price of hats is expressed in buds (this is assuming we all acknowledge that there is a direct correlation between the rise of keys and decline of bud price). I'll use an example to explain: Let's say you bought a 5 bud hat last winter when buds were going for 20 keys. You bought it for 100 keys. Now you're deciding to cash out, and you plan on converting your inventory into keys so you can sell of chunks of keys in order to maximize your profit and minimize your risk. You sell the hat for 5 buds. You turn those 5 buds into keys, but now you're only left with 70 keys. You just lost 30 keys and the paypal price has remained relatively stable at 1.8 - 1.9. Your initial investment of $180 dollars is now only worth $127. In other words, you lost 30% of your initial investment. Ouch. TLDR: The rising price of keys is constantly devaluing your hats since your hat's value is expressed in buds which are in turn valued in keys. The losses get exponentially worse the bigger your investment in unusuals. 3. Trading Community As opposed to "normal" trading (i.e. craft hats, miscs, stranges), unusual trading is almost entirely profit driven. In other words, nobody is buying hats because they think they're cool and want to wear them in game, but rather because they're seen as more profitable as another hat. This translates into a constant flow of lowball offers and negotiations that are so retarded you want to pull your hair out. Further, it creates a toxic atmosphere where everyone is constantly trying to manipulate and misrepresent facts in order to shift the trading advantage to their side. It also leads to constant penny pinching situations, where you find yourself arguing over profit that translates into a handful of dollars, often not even enough to buy even a happy meal at Mc Donald's. TLDR: The community is overwhelmingly filled with profit whores. 4. Backpack.tf pricing Continuing the point above, there is a problem where most of the community takes backpack price as bible. As I'm sure we all know, the backpack.tf value for a hat isn't actually a price, but merely a representation of what that particular hat traded for recently. Yet, 90% of traders take the backpack value of a hat to be an absolute price. What's worse is that it's a self perpetuating system (best example is the relatively slow drop of 3rd gens which are only now - 1.5 years after release - starting to drop to a point where they can actually be sold. They stayed so high because they'd be traded for other inflated 3rd gens which were also overpriced). It's no longer "I have a nice demo hat with G Energy and you have a nice pyro hat with G Energy. Let's trade". Now it's "My hat is worth 10.7 buds on backpack and yours is worth 9.5 so you'd have to add.". To be clear, I'm not saying that backpack pricing of unusuals is the problem. The problem is that every trader takes these prices as absolute values whereas they're nothing more than rough guidelines. TLDR: Taking backpack.tf values as bible is bad, yet everybody does it. 5. Self-policing community (especially SR) SR at this point at best doesn't do anything to help the community and at worse does much more harm than good. What's the point of SR? So you mark some scammers. Great, for every marked scammer, 3 more pop up. SR marks people that traded with scammers, Great, now you've taken some rare and desirable hats out of the economy. The deterrent argument here doesn't work, since people are still getting marked for trading with scammers, even though it's very common knowledge at this point that SR will step in. Also, the system does nothing to deter scammers (as it claims) which is a self evident point seeing how years after SR's conception there are just as many scammers as before if not more. The SR's "war on scamming" is pretty much just like the war on drugs: it doesn't do anything to actually decrease scamming, but only serves to punish individual members. Marking community members for trading with scammers just takes pure, rare hats and activity out of the community. TLDR: SR does more harm than good at this point. I'm sure many (or perhaps most of you) will disagree with some points (or all of them), but this is how I see the economy at this point. I'm not ringing an alarm bell saying this whole thing is about to go down, but I am saying is that getting into unusual trading is ill-advised at this point. If you want to get into this because you actually like hats with cool particles, then yes, get into unusual trading. If you're getting into it because of profit, you're better off getting a job flipping burgers - it pays better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffyy Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 i would write an essay disagreeing with everything you have just said but i need to calm down first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prince Lowell Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 TL;DR Interesting. but i still want to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
λngelღмander Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Completely agree with the steamrep part, steamrep tries to do good but it's really only harming the market because it's ruining the trading careers of people who are upstanding citizens of the community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gren Posted November 30, 2014 Author Share Posted November 30, 2014 i would write an essay disagreeing with everything you have just said but i need to calm down first My intention was not to offend anyone. Please go ahead and post some counter arguments, would love to hear what others think, especially if they're differing points of view from my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
♥Prof. Sugarcube♥ Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I wanted to make serious profit to buy Dixies for my growing Dixie collection. Seems that I need to do so through CS:GO or through non-unusual high-tier trading :3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Budi Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I think you are overstating the difficulty of unusual trading for a profit just a bit. While I agree with pretty much all your arguments, it doesn't mean that unusual trading for a profit can't be done, it just requires very smart, skilled traders that know what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#Tech Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffyy Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 i agree with the steamrep part tho dey gei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slocumruls Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 unusual trading can be difficult yes. And most people will lose their mind and money but for those that truly know what they are doing and have patience it can be quite rewarding. Otherwise, I'm fairly certain I wouldn't have a 200+ bud bp (not including my unpriced hats of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiny(: Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Unusual trading is easy as fuck lol. It's not even that difficult. All this unusuals take time to sell is bullshit. Offer it everywhere, get it over and done with. That's how I made ~6-7 buds in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSkelly Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I just got into it, and I have to agree with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Senpai Absol~ Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I've made most of my bp off unu trading...as everyone else is saying it just takes time and skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanner the Original Scout™ Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 for every marked scammer, 2,503 pop up fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I like unusual trading because it is a challenge, and it gives you an opportunity to get some appreciation for hats/effects that you might not have even liked otherwise. That being said, I was one of those people who only traded for hats that I would wear unless there was insane profit in it for me. I will agree with you on a lot of your points though. SR? POISONOUS CANCER GET IT OUT OF HERE PLEASE! Their system is unfair and inefficient. It might have worked back when scamming wasn't such a huge part of the trading community, but it doesn't work anymore. It has essentially divided the community into two groups of people, scammers, and non-scammers. "Scammers" are basically forced to trade with other "scammers" because they got marked for buying a stolen hat on accident or needed to buy that 1 of 1 hat for their collection from a scammer. You also have those people who are really pretty big in this community that aren't banned or marked who really should be (I won't name names, but I have about 5 of you in my mind). I mean, I've had a open report on steamrep for a year and a half now because I accidentally fenced for an unmarked scammer literally 5 minutes after he made his first scam, and the guy who got stolen from was insanely butthurt. FIRST SCAM (and I even lost profit on that trade). Now, I'm not upset about having a report on me or being marked, but FUCKING MARK ME OR CLOSE THE REPORT. People won't even touch me with a 10 ft stick because they see the yellow tag from over a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pwndaz! Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 You forgot to mention that you can make TONS of profit off ONE trade versus 1 reclaimed off selling your craft hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyWaffles Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I got mad when bp updated the price of my kw viewfinder, 18-19buds to 12-13buds. so i just put my trade on op and asking for my original price (16pure, 18+ on mixed/unusuals) ( NO ONE GONNA SELL TO THIS NEW PRICE ) btw, this viewfinder was sold for 18 on mixed offer, the new owner was so agree/happy with the price. so i'm agree with your point 4 ''The problem is that every trader takes these prices as absolute values whereas they're nothing more than rough guidelines.'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gren Posted November 30, 2014 Author Share Posted November 30, 2014 Unusual trading is easy as fuck lol. It's not even that difficult. All this unusuals take time to sell is bullshit. Offer it everywhere, get it over and done with. That's how I made ~6-7 buds in a week. Come back and tell us how it's easy as fuck when you don't have hats that are utter and complete shit. Yes, even that TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawtch Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Come back and tell us how it's easy as fuck when you don't have hats that are utter and complete shit. Yes, even that TC. and dat vac ban Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingOfHeart Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Completely agree with the SR thing. They only like to punish, which is not a good thing! For profit wise, it depends on your style, luck, and greed. Some users can make bud profit easily here. You just have to master it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leviathan76 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 lol i only bought my unusuals because i love those particles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gren Posted November 30, 2014 Author Share Posted November 30, 2014 I think you are overstating the difficulty of unusual trading for a profit just a bit. While I agree with pretty much all your arguments, it doesn't mean that unusual trading for a profit can't be done, it just requires very smart, skilled traders that know what they are doing. unusual trading can be difficult yes. And most people will lose their mind and money but for those that truly know what they are doing and have patience it can be quite rewarding. Otherwise, I'm fairly certain I wouldn't have a 200+ bud bp (not including my unpriced hats of course). I've made most of my bp off unu trading...as everyone else is saying it just takes time and skill You forgot to mention that you can make TONS of profit off ONE trade versus 1 reclaimed off selling your craft hat. To clarify, I'm not saying it's impossible to make profit, far from it. I've made my share of profit in this game for sure. My point however is that it's becoming more and more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
♥Prof. Sugarcube♥ Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Question though; If Unusual trading is cancer for newbie high-tier traders, what should we use to get major profit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merndy Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 TLDR: The rising price of keys is constantly devaluing your hats since your hat's value is expressed in buds which are in turn valued in keys. The losses get exponentially worse the bigger your investment in unusuals. Are you kiddin'? Refined is dieing because drop rates of items are now retardedly common introducing more and more refined every single day while keys are still limited. As refined goes up/down so does EVERY SINGLE ITEM IN THE GAME. Some thing's other then unsuals are worth less the other things such as promo's. So this is basically an excuse not to buy anything valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gren Posted November 30, 2014 Author Share Posted November 30, 2014 Question though; If Unusual trading is cancer for newbie high-tier traders, what should we use to get major profit? The only way to make major profit is buy trading high tier items which means basically unusuals or strange festives or aussies. Again, I'm not saying it's impossible. You have to know the dynamics of the market, hats and effects, which a lot of people here do. However, a new trader will not necessarily know for example that even though Miami is generally priced higher than peace sign, it's far easier to get rid of peace sign hats at a profit than Miami hats. They'll also not know just how much of an impact market availability has on the price a hat can get (e.g. you have a nice G energy hat, but there are 8 others on the market just like it. Clearly, it will be much more difficult to make profit in this situation). It's all about making smart investments. Invest in hats of which there aren't many in existence and/or on the market and make sure those hats are decent. That, and patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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