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The main problems with using SCM sales ONLY


Slocumruls

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Seeing unusuals priced using scm sales only makes me feel this needs to be addressed. 

The main issues with using scm sales ONLY:

1. There are multiple ways to value scm $.

A. Value using how many buds/keys the seller could buy with the money or how many the buyer could have bought instead

B. Value using how many buds/keys the buyer needs to sell to buy the item (trade.tf valuation)

C. Value how many keys/buds the seller would have to sell to receive the same amount of money

Each of those methods ends with a different Value

2. Without screenshots from the buyer/seller the specific effect sold cannot be proven and the amount of time the sale took cannot be proven

3. Many lower tier effects on high tier hats sell for significantly more than their current bp.tf value

example from my own scm history: http://imgur.com/dKcAzHD

http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Texas%20Ten%20Gallon/Tradable/Craftable/36

 

Provide thoughts if you want.

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SCM is fine for support proof, or main proof if there are absolutely no other sales in 3 months. My Collector' VRH Suggestion is like this;

 

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5416a739ba8d889f218b47c0

 

However this was only because there were no other sales (it was 1:1)

 

 

SCm should be Support proof if there are legit trading sales, but main if there are no other sales and you have a Viable way to prove it was the Hat + effect

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Market price is good for proving when a price is wrong.  If a "2 buds" hat is unsold on market for $40, then 2 buds is too high no matter which conversion method you use. 

 

The most common source of unusual price info is unusual-vs-unusual trades which also suffer from uncertainty.  

 

Suppose I have "hat A", pricechecked at 7 buds.  It's an old price and outpost has 4 of them unsold at 7-.  I list it for 6 and intend to accept 5.5 pure.  A month later, guy offers "hat B" for mine, pricechecked at 6.5-7 buds and everyone on outpost wants 7+.  I figure I can sell B faster than A, do trade, list for 6 firm and sell for pure later that day.

 

From my point of view, I made at least .5 buds on the deal since I couldn't sell A for 6 buds.  But for all I know that guy had a buyer lined up at 7 buds.  Did I overpay?  Did he?  Did both of us overpay?  It's unknowable.

 

The difference between maximum and minimum SCM conversions is ~31% (maximum = minimum + two sets of 15% fees) and I'd say that's no worse than the plausible range of unusual-vs-unusual valuations.

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Seeing unusuals priced using scm sales only makes me feel this needs to be addressed. 

The main issues with using scm sales ONLY:

1. There are multiple ways to value scm $.

A. Value using how many buds/keys the seller could buy with the money or how many the buyer could have bought instead

B. Value using how many buds/keys the buyer needs to sell to buy the item (trade.tf valuation)

C. Value how many keys/buds the seller would have to sell to receive the same amount of money

Each of those methods ends with a different Value

2. Without screenshots from the buyer/seller the specific effect sold cannot be proven and the amount of time the sale took cannot be proven

3. Many lower tier effects on high tier hats sell for significantly more than their current bp.tf value

example from my own scm history: http://imgur.com/dKcAzHD

http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Texas%20Ten%20Gallon/Tradable/Craftable/36

 

Provide thoughts if you want.

 

Helix asked me about this and this is what I relayed to him.

 

(1) In most situations, SCM should be used ONLY as supportive proof just as Naknak indicates above.

 

(2) However, in the situation where there are no other sales in 3 months and the hat went to a collector, I think it's fine. These are cases where if we don't price off the SCM sale that hat will probably never get priced (or won't be priced for a very long time). Then, since prices are estimates anyways, the SCM sale is our estimate.

 

In these cases, I told him to make a range. High end = what seller pays (no taxes). Low end = what buyer gets (after taxes). And buds at their selling point at the time of the sale (to make it simpler). Only fair way I see of handling this.

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