Currency price pattern

[Alen]

I didn't want to make this post, but after seeing the inflation of key prices I decided that I had to discuss this to get it off my chest.

Over the past few years since I started playing TF2, on an old account whose password I forgot and four years later re-acquired, I've recently gotten back into playing and trading into TF2. Of course, I'm one of those guys who only recently started using marketplace.tf and gets by. Back then, I was a very poor person and was very gullible. Didn't know the basics of trading or making profit, pure and simple. Enough of me, let's get back into what's relevant.

What I've noticed with key prices is that when they first started rising, bots were being set to sell at a higher price and buy at a lower price than the current. An example is now, we have bots selling at 34 ref (current key price is around 32 refined) and buying at lower prices than the current flow. (Look in the current key buy offers. You'll see what I mean.) This leads to people automatically assuming that the bot's prices are automatically the correct price, and a normal person would want to go with that flow because it makes sense; keys are apparently going up according to the bots. But that wasn't really the case until people actually started listening to bots because of one prime reason: they were the ONLY ones who could instantly accept and sell someone an item immediately without any wait.

This, of course, led to keys inflating in price due to people requiring more and more keys to either trade or fund their unusual gambling addiction, leading to the mess of a key price we have today.

These key prices not only affect traders, but also affect the community itself. Before I continue on, I will say this: The TF2 community is NOT dying, nor do I have or play OW. This is my opinion personally, you can feel free to disagree with me on it.

Free to Plays, also abbreviated as F2Ps, are one of the most hated types of players on the game, mainly due to many of them being unable to understand how to play the game, or how to understand certain game mechanics. These, however, are possible future premium players, meaning they can trade and make profit when they spend $5.00 or more in something like the Mann Co. Store. However, the key prices now have made the trading part of TF2 look, dare I say in my own words, "disgustingly unattractive".

Back in 2012, or whenever key prices were around 2 refined each, new players could easily make profit even with free to play accounts. All it would require was some patience and the luck to do something like, for example, craft a Maul or Three Rune Blade. You'd be up and running in no time if you could find a buyer for either. Hell, even with a lot of patience, you could get a single key if you waited for, or acquired through other means such as gifts or free items, 36 craft weapons. 2 x 3 = 6, equaling to 1 rec. 6 x 3 = 18, meaning 3 rec would be equal to, of course, one refined metal. Double that again, you have 36 weapons turned into 2 pieces of refined metal, from which you could buy a key with, and then wait double that time to acquire two keys for a premium upgrade gift.

Nowadays, key prices are so massive that new players are finding the trading very unattractive to do, as the current state the key prices are in right now as I type this are, again, inflated. Now, to even get ONE key, you would need to obtain, on average, a whopping 582 - 588 weapons to garner enough refined for one key. This is just an estimate, as key prices are set to around 32 refined at the time writing and I'm using 32.33 - 32.66 refined as a placeholder as I'm sure prices will change very soon. Now imagine DOUBLE that, trying to get 1164 - 1176 weapons to garner enough weapons to get the refined required to get TWO keys, which is about the price of a premium upgrade gift. I will also note mentioning, that a free to play could bypass this if they were lucky with their crafts and managed to get multiple three rune blades or mauls, which, even then, is a staggering 7.14% chance to acquire a Three Rune Blade and, akin to the three rune, a 7.14% chance to craft the Maul. This data was taken by counting all of the craftable pyro and scout melees, and dividing them into percentages. For example, there are around 14 craftable pyro melees, and if we divide 1 / 14, that's only a 7.14% chance to craft only ONE Maul. Basically, you're screwed unless you either pay REAL money to trade, or you wait all that time to get those weapons and obtain those keys. Nobody's gonna do that. And I can already hear the argument of "if they wanna trade, they should just spend real money on the game!"

And to that, I reply that they need real incentive to spend money on the game. There's a lot of players who wish to see what the game is like before they start investing their own money into it. And once they see that the game is just a load of people buying and selling $40 hats and rare weapons, they'll lose the will to continue playing, thereby rendering them a lost possible trader, which eats away at the community bit by bit. And even if they do begin to spend real money on the game, as I can guarantee that some of you will predict, one minor slip up will cost them plenty of currency that could've been used to make profit, and it will destroy their willpower to continue trading, hence why we see so many abandoned TF2 backpacks and people who have cashed out of TF2 itself and moved onto other games. Once again, this is my own personal opinion, and by no means do I mean to attack or slander anyone.

Here's a TL;DR for those who didn't bother to sit through: New players are driven away by key inflation. It's too difficult to begin trading in TF2, and harms the community.

If you bothered to sit through the entire explanation, congratulations! You've sat through the most boring rant you'll see to date, but also may have learned a thing or two, though I doubt that.

I look forward to your responses.

 

[Happysedits]

Valve has to step in

[Apo]

The key prices make early trading (for keeps) more attractive.

Oh you want every single weapon and tons of cosmetics? Buy a couple keys.

For the end consumer, it's good.

For profit traders, it's a little more daunting. Making a 0.05 ref profit scrapbanking means almost nothing compared to a 34 ref key.

[RED265]

2 hours ago, Alen said:

 

If you bothered to sit through the entire explanation

It's a false inflation. If tf2 forms a way to clear the refined issue, the refined market stabilizes. This is due to infinite ref vs finite keys. I don't see why valve does not allow a conversion of let's say 10 ref for a TOD ticket. This would clear up the market with ppl pushing for TOD, causing an influx of aussies and forcing down the prices, and in turn unusuals would be forced to maintain it's rate.

Bachelor in Monetary Economics graduate here btw

[AdamWTS]

58 minutes ago, RED265 said:

Bachelor in Monetary Economics graduate here btw

 

Kinda weird you needed an academic degree to understand that.

I admit, refined metal has entirely lost its purpose since buying a weapon or a hat with metal is almost always a more optimal option.

But let's be honest, refined metal was always free and will continue to be no matter what. Naturally keys that hold actual monetary value will be harder to obtain as the time goes. Just like in real life, you can't make a fortune out of pennies dropped by pedestrians. Also, those "new players" expecting to gain a profit while not contributing anything are simply leeching off the economy, damaging it. Constantly increasing ref-key ratio protects everyone from that. Those people will need to take care of themselves and adapt to market changes by actually contributing with their money.

There's also a positive side of the "inflation". As the keys become worth more refined, "basic needs" items, such as hats or stranges become cheaper to obtain. Back in the day where economy made their first steps, with one key, you could buy 1-2 hats. Nowadays, you can buy several hats and stranges for one key, making it possible to deck out multiple classes with fancy items for a low price of $2.49

[tardlife]

You talk as if scrapbanking is the only possible way to trade for a new trader.

A incentive to spend money on the game you say? how about being able to start trading and making a profit or spending $2 and being able to buy most of the hats in game..

 

I’d say the bots doesnt play as big part as you belive it to be, there’s just too much metal that nobody wants, more and more metal comes into the game and nowhere to spend it. As talked about on this forum 1000 times, tf2 needs a ref sink.

 

edit,

Design Bachelor here btw, also I took a ceramics class once, I quite enjoyed it

[RED265]

1 hour ago, AdamWTS said:

 

Kinda weird you needed an academic degree to understand that.

I admit, refined metal has entirely lost its purpose since buying a weapon or a hat with metal is almost always a more optimal option.

But let's be honest, refined metal was always free and will continue to be no matter what. Naturally keys that hold actual monetary value will be harder to obtain as the time goes. Just like in real life, you can't make a fortune out of pennies dropped by pedestrians. Also, those "new players" expecting to gain a profit while not contributing anything are simply leeching off the economy, damaging it. Constantly increasing ref-key ratio protects everyone from that. Those people will need to take care of themselves and adapt to market changes by actually contributing with their money.

There's also a positive side of the "inflation". As the keys become worth more refined, "basic needs" items, such as hats or stranges become cheaper to obtain. Back in the day where economy made their first steps, with one key, you could buy 1-2 hats. Nowadays, you can buy several hats and stranges for one key, making it possible to deck out multiple classes with fancy items for a low price of $2.49

Ain't hard to understand actually, but you know, high value traders do have people arguing that there's no such thing as inflation and all, talk much abt their business studies diploma and how key price is going up..... need a form of proof to shut them up sometimes

[Alen]

3 hours ago, tardlife said:

 

A incentive to spend money on the game you say? how about being able to start trading and making a profit or spending $2 and being able to buy most of the hats in game..

 

I’d say the bots doesnt play as big part as you belive it to be, there’s just too much metal that nobody wants, more and more metal comes into the game and nowhere to spend it. As talked about on this forum 1000 times, tf2 needs a ref sink.

 

 

To be able to even START trading items your actually "valuable" items, you'd have to get a PREMIUM account first. Like stated above, that's usually around 2 keys or $5.00 USD equivalent.

I disagree wholeheartedly. It's always the same thing every single key price update. They increase it by maybe 1-2 ref, then the greedy bot-owners readjust their bots and set THEIR key selling price higher than the norm. Due to a lack of immediate response from other players, this is why we have the inflation, because people don't have the patience to wait for items and would instead spend an extra rec/ref to get a key faster.

[Alen]

6 hours ago, Apo said:

The key prices make early trading (for keeps) more attractive.

Oh you want every single weapon and tons of cosmetics? Buy a couple keys.

For the end consumer, it's good.

For profit traders, it's a little more daunting. Making a 0.05 ref profit scrapbanking means almost nothing compared to a 34 ref key.

Like I said earlier in the post, incentive matters. I'm not gonna buy a copy of PUBG if I know it's total shit and I know nothing about it. I'm gonna buy it IF my friends think I should try it out. Same applies with TF2. I'm not going to buy keys to a game I don't really know all that much about until I see what the community is like. At that time they're probably free to play, trying to make the best of their weapons, and they've just maybe learned about crafting.

Again, as I said in the post, if they make ONE minor slip-up, they can kiss those keys goodbye, or they can kiss their own will to trade goodbye, because the most minor loss is massive due to the limited amount of options you have.

[tardlife]

2 hours ago, Alen said:

To be able to even START trading items your actually "valuable" items, you'd have to get a PREMIUM account first. Like stated above, that's usually around 2 keys or $5.00 USD equivalent.

I disagree wholeheartedly. It's always the same thing every single key price update. They increase it by maybe 1-2 ref, then the greedy bot-owners readjust their bots and set THEIR key selling price higher than the norm. Due to a lack of immediate response from other players, this is why we have the inflation, because people don't have the patience to wait for items and would instead spend an extra rec/ref to get a key faster.

 Either having to own the game (before freetoplay) or having to get premium has always been a thing, and it’s not a lot of money that’s need to start with trading. Also it’s not like it’s everyone’s god given right to be able to earn a profit in a game..

That wouldn’t happen if somebody was interested in the metal in the first place, what bots are doing is making it all go in a faster pace, it would happen anyway because nobody wants metal but people want keys.

[Scott Bakula]

2 hours ago, Alen said:

They increase it by maybe 1-2 ref, then the greedy bot-owners readjust their bots and set THEIR key selling price higher than the norm.

 

There is nothing greedy about this. A bot owner who does not keep their prices updated will quickly find their entire inventory cleaned out and will wind up taking a massive loss.

 

 

2 hours ago, Alen said:

Again, as I said in the post, if they make ONE minor slip-up, they can kiss those keys goodbye, or they can kiss their own will to trade goodbye, because the most minor loss is massive due to the limited amount of options you have.

 

OR they could learn form their mistake and try again, since their total losses were the equivalent value of a pizza.

[Julia]

Keys and metal are two separate currencies originated from two different things. One is money, the other is item drops. Guess which one is harder to afford with the other.

 

College dropout here btw.

[Apo]

7 hours ago, Alen said:

Like I said earlier in the post, incentive matters. I'm not gonna buy a copy of PUBG if I know it's total shit and I know nothing about it. I'm gonna buy it IF my friends think I should try it out. Same applies with TF2. I'm not going to buy keys to a game I don't really know all that much about until I see what the community is like. At that time they're probably free to play, trying to make the best of their weapons, and they've just maybe learned about crafting.

Again, as I said in the post, if they make ONE minor slip-up, they can kiss those keys goodbye, or they can kiss their own will to trade goodbye, because the most minor loss is massive due to the limited amount of options you have.

I fail to see how this is a counter-argument to my post. There is more incentive to buy keys now since a key can get you more than it did in the past.

(Keys are worth the same, but other items are worth less, meaning that keys have more bang for your buck than in the past)

 

If they "make ONE minor slip-up" they lose $2.

That's not "massive" as you state. Their "limited" options include dropping another "massive" $2 on a key.

[Alen]

4 hours ago, Scott Bakula said:

 

There is nothing greedy about this. A bot owner who does not keep their prices updated will quickly find their entire inventory cleaned out and will wind up taking a massive loss.

 

 

 

OR they could learn form their mistake and try again, since their total losses were the equivalent value of a pizza.

I never said bot owners were greedy for raising their prices updated. I was actually implying that raising the price to an unreasonably high amount in an attempt to raise key prices is greedy.

Okay, in response to your second reply, why do you keep ignoring the main point? Like I said, INCENTIVE.

[Alen]

8 minutes ago, Apo said:

I fail to see how this is a counter-argument to my post. There is more incentive to buy keys now since a key can get you more than it did in the past.

(Keys are worth the same, but other items are worth less, meaning that keys have more bang for your buck than in the past)

 

If they "make ONE minor slip-up" they lose $2.

That's not "massive" as you state. Their "limited" options include dropping another "massive" $2 on a key.

Which they won't do as they already lost. That's basic human psychology. If you lose once on the FIRST time you try something, it's highly likely that you'll quit and won't try again. But if you MANAGE to make desirable profit, then you'll want to do that again. Let's take roulette tables and slot machines at casinos as an example. A lot of people don't learn, so they drop more and more cash on the game only to end up on the short end of the stick at the end of it because they were stupid with their money.

You're looking past my incentive issue again. They're gonna need a reason to drop cash on the game, instead of buying a copy of Garry's Mod and playing it.

[AdamWTS]

53 minutes ago, Alen said:

never said bot owners were greedy for raising their prices updated. I was actually implying that raising the price to an unreasonably high amount in an attempt to raise key prices is greedy.

You clearly have no idea what you're even talking about. Rising the price isn't greedy. It's actually smart because it prevents the bot owners from losing money.

 

49 minutes ago, Alen said:

That's basic human psychology. If you lose once on the FIRST time you try something, it's highly likely that you'll quit and won't try again.

No. Just no. I'd make a long paragraph explaining how wrong you are but I'll try to keep it short so even you can understand it. If you give up on the first failure you will never achieve anything. Period. It's not "basic human psychology". It's basic loser psychology.

 

49 minutes ago, Alen said:

Let's take roulette tables and slot machines at casinos as an example. A lot of people don't learn, so they drop more and more cash on the game only to end up on the short end of the stick at the end of it because they were stupid with their money.

You just tried to make an example to prove your previous statement, yet you ended up contradicting it. Congrats.

 

49 minutes ago, Alen said:

They're gonna need a reason to drop cash on the game, instead of buying a copy of Garry's Mod and playing it.

And is there a better reason to spend the money on the game than getting all the premium perks and potentially 34 refined worth of items for a modest fee of $2.50?

[Alen]

Just now, AdamWTS said:

You clearly have no idea what you're even talking about. Rising the price isn't greedy. It's actually smart because it prevents the bot owners from losing money.

 

No. Just no. I'd make a long paragraph explaining how wrong you are but I'll try to keep it short so even you can understand it. If you give up on the first failure you will never achieve anything. Period. It's not "basic human psychology". It's basic loser psychology.

 

You just tried to make an example to prove your previous statement, yet you ended up contradicting it. Congrats.

 

And is there a better reason to spend the money on the game than getting all the premium perks and potentially 34 refined worth of items for a modest fee of $2.50?

First, you're completely ignoring what I said in the section you quoted.

Second, many people give up on first try, hence why there are so many abandoned backpacks. You'd know that if you actually read through the entire post, it's very obvious you didn't and decided to skim it.

Third, that was actually supporting a second claim I was making: Even if they spend more money on the game, they'll end up losing it due to having a lack of knowledge on what to do and current prices pressuring them to "go with the flow". Something you'd understand if you were actually in the position a lot of players who have quit were, which you never have been. So why don't you stop acting so smart and hostile towards me, and start adding something actually constructive instead of saying "No, just no.", and "congrats on contradicting your previous statement". Would seriously help your credibility.

[AdamWTS]

People giving up on their first try is entirely their problem, I don't understand how is this issue brought up here in a first place. If they don't have the knowledge or/and can't handle the pressure, they shouldn't participate in the economy in a first place.

[Alen]

Just now, AdamWTS said:

People giving up on their first try is entirely their problem, I don't understand how is this issue brought up here in a first place.

This isn't just about people giving up on the first try, although to that, I say that it's not entirely their own fault, it's the economy's fault. The current prices discourage players from trading for fear of losing their item value as well. It's not just their problem, because if you took the time to listen, those are abandoned backpacks and lost possible traders.

[AdamWTS]

You just ignored the second half of my post that literally answers your doubts. Kinda ironic as it comes from someone who accuses me of poor reading comprehension. So let me just say it again: If they don't have the knowledge or/and can't handle the pressure, they shouldn't participate in the economy in a first place. Trading isn't a straight walkway to profit, there is always some risk involved that needs to be considered. Stop blaming the economy for people's poor adaptation skills.

 

[Alen]

1 minute ago, AdamWTS said:

You just ignored the second half of my post that literally answers your doubts. Kinda ironic as it comes from someone who accuses me of poor reading comprehension. So let me just say it again: If they don't have the knowledge or/and can't handle the pressure, they shouldn't participate in the economy in a first place. Trading isn't a straight walkway to profit, there is always some risk involved that needs to be considered. Stop blaming the economy for people's poor adaptation skills.

 

You literally edited it to add the second part. I replied when the original version was out.

[AdamWTS]

My point still stands. Not everyone is suitable to participate in trading. A person who doesn't have the knowledge required or can't deal with risk won't make it too far. I myself made some bad deals in my "career", but they only helped me learn to get better. I may sound a little harsh here, but people who gave up on trading probably realized they don't have the skills required and decided to step down instead of learning from their mistakes.

[Alen]

49 minutes ago, AdamWTS said:

My point still stands. Not everyone is suitable to participate in trading. A person who doesn't have the knowledge required or can't deal with risk won't make it too far. I myself made some bad deals in my "career", but they only helped me learn to get better. I may sound a little harsh here, but people who gave up on trading probably realized they don't have the skills required and decided to step down instead of learning from their mistakes.

That may be true, but new players and traders are the lifeline of TF2. If they disappear, they're gone forever because they see the appeal in TF2 is too overwhelming for them. I too have made bad deals in my trades, and they have improved my decision making skills as well, but many others are not so confident in their trading skills. They may quit the game outright, again, losing players and eating away at the playerbase.

[Apo]

4 hours ago, Alen said:

You're looking past my incentive issue again. They're gonna need a reason to drop cash on the game

Lol. You asked a question that I had answered before you asked, I didn't think I'd have to specify the answer again.

18 hours ago, Apo said:

Want every single weapon and tons of cosmetics? Buy a couple keys.

 

[Scott Bakula]

4 hours ago, Alen said:

Second, many people give up on first try, hence why there are so many abandoned backpacks.

 

I'd attribute that more to the fact that most people don't play the same game over and over for years. People change over time, and their hobbies and interests change with them. And for a great deal of people who just stopped playing, there was never an "I'm done with this game, I'm cashing out!" moment; their free time was just taken up with a different game or life event until suddenly they haven't touched the game in over a year. Think about it, when was the last time you fed your Neopets?