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Are keys finally gonna stabilize?


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This always happens.

 

Key prices go up, in the holidays they drop and after the holidays are over they begin to rise again. Probably a hype, usually keys don't drop 4 ref in 1 day :P

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Rather 3 things happen.

 

1. The hype of losing .22ref gets so extreme, that it ruins the price of keys completely and ruins the entire economy. 

 

2. That this hype will just set it to a certain price and then start rising again.

 

3. Or that people wont fuck around with key prices for a while once the price is set to its stable value. 

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For the first time in months i have  seen the price of the key go somewhere besides up. There is already another suggestion for keys to go down to 26 ref (http://backpack.tf/suggestion/586d985e0e2cad076238717e) which I think is a pretty ok price for a key. If I had a choice I would make them like 22-25 ref. And I was honestly expecting keys to go up to 30 ref.

 

Btw, what caused this jolt in key prices. Can't get a good answer but most like to blame it on the key bots.

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¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Probably not though. They've never stayed in one place for more than a month or two before, why would they start now?

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It always falls down a little after December. People are selling for 26.55 now. It will go to like 25 and then go slowly up again until its 40 the next Smissmass.

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Posted · Hidden by puddingkip, January 5, 2017 - No reason given
Hidden by puddingkip, January 5, 2017 - No reason given

It always falls down a little after December. People are selling for 26.55 now. It will go to like 25 and then go slowly up again until its 40 the next Smissmass.

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It always falls down a little after December. People are selling for 26.55 now. It will go to like 25 and then go slowly up again until its 40 the next Smissmass.

Would not be too shocked if keys ever got above 30 ref. And at that point I would not be trading for keys. I would save my metal 'till another price drop.

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Would not be too shocked if keys ever got above 30 ref. And at that point I would not be trading for keys. I would save my metal 'till another price drop.

 

Then you'll be waiting a while. 

 

It's simple economics folks. It has nothing to do with keys rising or falling and everything to do with the value of metal that it is tied to. The metal supply keeps growing and metal has almost no use anymore, few people craft hats anymore and most are cheap anyways. Keys in circulation stay pretty steady and have a use to sell on the SCM for funds or to open crates. 

 

This dip in the key refined price is short term as people no longer need SCM funds to buy games during the Steam sale. The keys will start to rise soon when the refined price of them stabilizes and then will keep its ascending. This cyclical pattern will keep going forever until the TF2 economy crashes or ceases to exist. 

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This always happens.

 

Key prices go up, in the holidays they drop and after the holidays are over they begin to rise again. Probably a hype, usually keys don't drop 4 ref in 1 day :P

^ This.

 

With the Mann Co. Store sales always happening during the end of December until mid-January every year, people collect funds before-hand. This may be through saving up money, to be invested in the goods that are on sale. Generally speaking, during this season, it does shift demand away from keys as people attempt to find better ways of turning refined into Steam Wallet Funds e.g Limited Cosmetics. The drop in keys occurs due to the lack of demand and the surplus of keys in the market, as people have seen with people like Spirit Bots and STN attempting to sell their huge stockpile of keys as quickly as possible right now, causing undercutting.

 

However, once the sales end, keys will just do a u-turn back up as with people hoping to turn their short-term investment into pure.

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Keys always drop after xmas/steam sales we

Ref is still worthless so yeah…

I blame key bots for this drop, would have been not that big of a drop without them imo

Keys will go up again of volvo won't change do anything

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I blame key bots for this drop, would have been not that big of a drop without them imo

 

If you check the graph, this also happened in January of 2015 where there was a massive drop right at the start of the New Year, which was before the proliferation of bots.

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Oh, finally keys are droping and its really nice, its stupid pays 30 ref for one key.

Best price for key is like 16 ref. Ok have a good day.

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-snip-

Best price for key is like 16 ref. Ok have a good day.

except it's not, because refined is worth less than 10 cents a piece

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Oh, finally keys are droping and its really nice, its stupid pays 30 ref for one key.

Best price for key is like 16 ref. Ok have a good day.

 

 

Ok I have a great proposition for you then. You sell me your backpack for keys, and I'll give you 16 refined for every key of value of your backpack, how's that sound? 

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Ok I have a great proposition for you then. You sell me your backpack for keys, and I'll give you 1 key for every 16 refined of your backpack, how's that sound? 

wait doesn't it make more sense for you to pay 16ref for every 1key of his backpack value?

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wait doesn't it make more sense for you to pay 16ref for every 1key of his backpack value?

 

Sorry that's what I meant. But my point is, that he wants to see keys at 16 refined, then you can only value keys at $1.12 (I get that number from refined being 7 cents x 16). People can't have it both ways. And obviously, this would never ever happen because in no free market would it ever make sense to be able to buy a commodity at $2.49 to then have it only be worth $1.12. No one would buy keys and the entire system would collapse. 

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