Eric M Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I was looking at keys because panics and bank runs interest me, when I noticed something a little suspicious. These two accounts ( http://backpack.tf/u/76561198081471561 and http://backpack.tf/u/76561198081506889 ) both have 2 keys for sale at the same price, which are competitively priced to be some of the lowest on the classifieds. Both have 1 friend, guess who, have identical BP values, and both went offline on steam within 3 minutes of the other. I'm not flat out accusing anyone of scheming to drive prices down by lowering the price floor on the classifieds and then going offline so the listings remain for hours/days, but it is otherwise awfully coincidental. Perhaps a mod can look into it. Appologies if this isn't the right forum, but looking at the list, it seemed most appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakeTheAwesome Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I think it also might be worth mentioning that both accounts were created on the same day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Wiggum Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 2 sellers is not enough to affect price suggestions. Failed attempt at manipulation if it even is an attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
praise Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 2 sellers is not enough to affect price suggestions. Failed attempt at manipulation if it even is an attempt. 2 very low offline sellers can cause people to undercut. Which then leads to more undercutting elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric M Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 Doesn't help that one of them calls out two autotrade listers as "scanners" (scammers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polar Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Thanks, banned. And warned the main. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Wiggum Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Thanks, banned. And warned the main. Which one is the main account? You permanently banned both, so does this mean there's a third, main account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polar Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 does this mean there's a third, main account? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
☾Link✞Skorpion☽ Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Because greedy people can't leave well enough alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric M Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 I'd look into http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077189328 as well. 0 achievements in tf2 despite 200ish hours (last played October 2013 :|), 0 friends, offline, no backpack to speak of. Definitely not as straight-forward as the two above, but certainly suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polar Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I'd look into http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077189328 as well. 0 achievements in tf2 despite 200ish hours (last played October 2013 :|), 0 friends, offline, no backpack to speak of. Definitely not as straight-forward as the two above, but certainly suspicious. Yup. Alt of the same guy. Keep em coming. P.S. I wish our IP tool didn't suck so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric M Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 http://backpack.tf/u/76561198008890158 Isn't necessarily in the same boat as the alts, but he's friends with the person whom I suspect you've pinged as the main. I sent an offer, I'll see how it turns out. He hasn't played tf2 in the past 2 weeks, no outpost activity in a year, both key histories are from [bOT] Alan (KEY #4), which, unsurprisingly, is friends with the person I suspect you've pinged as the main. It's circumstantial evidence, but he's been online since posting the keys, and he hasn't gotten around to checking his trade offers since. edit: VidalSaloon and ShipSkipper both got their keys from the same bot. He accepted the offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric M Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 http://backpack.tf/u/76561198028448403 The key histories are from http://backpack.tf/u/76561198114377220 who is also selling keys at a low value. Both have been online since posting -- I find it challenging to believe that no one would have added them by now, or to believe that Sepu would buy the keys and then sell them for the exact same price. Either way, I sent Sepu an invite, we'll see if he ever gets around to accepting. 6:53pm GMT -5 Edit: Sepu declined the friend request. I guess he's not a fan of my work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Penguins Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 ^ This guy is on fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
..:Vorlex:.. Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 ^ I Agree :3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
☾Link✞Skorpion☽ Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Keep 'er goin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric M Posted April 17, 2015 Author Share Posted April 17, 2015 http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152924341 Listed a key for 16 ref, last online 22 days ago. BP value <$4, steam profile comments reveal that he has a history of this sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keroro1454 Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Damn son. 6 posts in and you've already taken down like 4 alts. Keep up the good work OP, you'll go far in the community! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric M Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066595932has been online pretty much 24/7. He had 2 keys for sale yesterday when I was going through the list, online the whole time, for "competitively low" prices. He's sold one since relisting today. It's hard for me to imagine that he hasn't had any adds for them. Anyway, I sent an add, I'll see if he ever gets around to dealing with it. http://backpack.tf/u/76561198143240192This key has been around since yesterday, with him online most of the time [ayy guess who finally went offline]. I sent an offer, we'll see if he get's to it. No blatantly obvious manipulators like yesterday, fortunately. I'm going to try to not post clean-up crew updates unless they're a little fishy. Are there any plans in the works to auto-cancel high supply / high demand listings after a set amount of time, for instance key listings after 24 hours unbumped? If you can't sell it within 24 hours of bumping, nor bump it within a 24 hour period, it's likely that you're either offline for a while and probably shouldn't have the listing up, you're doing it on purpose, or you really aren't one to deal with the whole "trading" thing. If anyone would like to chime in on that suggestion, whether for or against it, lay out your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qnqnx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 >he snitches >he does it for free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric M Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 >he snitches >he does it for free Someone has to. You see how stupidly blatant the first two alts were? Can you in good conscience let someone with an IQ 2 standard deviations below the mean try to get away with highway robbery like that? I can't. I just wish there was a better method in place to stop the bastards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunion Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Rawr! HunionKnight here... (Suprised I am still able to make forum posts, I'm sure it'll get banned and I'll have to make an alt to repeat myself) As those of you who are diligent enough to decypher Eric M's posts know, I am the man responsible for the manipulation of tf2 supply crate key classifieds over the past 120 hours which has seen a reduction of key prices by 15%. I have accepted and will not appeal a 4 week ban imposed upon me by bp.tf admins who, for the most part, take part in more serious infractions, that those of you who have paid close attention over the years already know about. I write now to explain my actions, so that a few people might actually understand why I took this radical action and press for more security over bp.tf classified listings. There is a growing trend, in which several high ranking tf2 users have warned mods, and even Brad Pitt about several months ago, concerning automated classified scanners (yes, scanners, not scammers) used by people owning restocking bots (keys, ToD's, paints etc) causing a manipulation in the classified listings. Such scanners are used to look at classified listings in 20 second intervals for specific items at a <= X (value), and automatically send trade offers to people. I implore anyone who is dubious about that claim to make a classified listing on the aforementioned items and see the results, close down the listing, reopen, and see the same automated bots offer you a second trade within moments. The widespread and growing usage of such third party programs has caused an upward trend on classified listings of concerned items, going to restockers who resell for higher, opposed to users who use said items and benefit from them. I took this action not for the benefit of myself, but to show in plain sight the effect manipulation of classified listings can have. Should my actions be deemed wrong by backpack admins, which it was... So should that of automated scanners which set a determined price, to which normal users cannot hope to purchase at due to the speed such scanners can process listings. While my actions do not justify what I have done, I hope a few of you understand the point I have made... If you feel these sort of third party programs are as much a manipulation of classified listings as what I have done, please speak to your nearest bp.tf mod and ask for more stringent measures on sending trade offers to people through classified listings. Otherwise.. flame below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
♠Derpeh♤ Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 -snip- 1) actions on the main site does not constitute to a ban here on the forum (unless you're a marked scammer then you cannot post a trade thread) 2) Everyone knows about bots who scan backpacks however they cannot effect the price of items, they simply scan trades abut buy who is selling for a price which they have specified (basically automated quick buying) this isnt manipulation and bots buying/trading doesnt cause any issues. We have trade.tf and more recently scan.tf which allows users to essentially camp out trades to buy up things cheap, this isnt an issue and user have been doing this since the beginning of trading, everyone looks for the cheapest option. 3) automated buying bots do not cause problems, the only issues "scanners" cause is where scammers would prey on those with low tf2 time and own an unusual in an attempt to shark 4) You seem to be trying to take the high group in proving a point, the fact is you could have easily made a website suggestion increasing the security of classifieds, or a bug report, many of our mods read through those and if an idea is sufficient they will be implemented. 6) I fail to see how you listing items for a lower price in an attempt to manipulate other users to undercut your price does anything in regards to automated bot buyers. This doesnt do anything other than have a few panic sellers lose profit if anything that goes against everything you've said. Again buying bots dont cause any problems, just like how quick buying trades have never been a problem you attempting to manipulate is a whole different story and i doubt you did that to prove a point in a website where not one knows who you are. You got caught and you're trying to take the high ground is all im seeing. You trying to manipulating has next to no correlation to automated quick buyers if anything helps them out because users will undercut you. Also note worthy is that automated bot buyers are not very sucessful as they are up against users of trade.tf, scan.tf and those who sit down and keep refreshing the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
♥Prof. Sugarcube♥ Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 This guy is golden, someone give him a god damn medal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric M Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 <also snip> First, I'd like to stroke my own ego for Sherlocking* the shit out of this. I'm vain. (*I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you made it easy to catch on purpose. You seem smart enough to have considered that. Looking at the alts and blowing the whistle clearly didn't take the work of a genius mastermind, but I at least had the time to give a fu...dge.) Second, you certainly helped lower the prices, but as much as I'd love to say it was just one user who masterminded the downfall of keys, I'm sure there are more people out there. You did a great job demonstrating the use of classified listings to create panic and showing inherent flaws in the system ("I took this action not for the benefit of myself, but to show in plain sight the effect manipulation of classified listings can have"), I have to give you props for that. Panic and fear are strong, which is why I took an interest in trying to put an end to it, but they're just two of the many factors bringing keys down. The issue with your soapbox is that there isn't a connection between you lowering the price floor on the classifieds and scanners buying up deals ("Should my actions be deemed wrong ... So should that of automated scanners"). In no way does creating a bankrun highlight the scanner issue (with the assumption that it's an issue in the first place), or even give any logical, valid argument as to why it is a problem. On the point of mistaking you calling them scanners as an attempt to call them scammers, that was my bad. I don't trust people to not make simple mistakes when put behind a keyboard. It's a bias of mine. Anyway, tl;dr yeah the classifieds are flawed. You showed that. I agree that the system could use a look at. The scanners argument seems like baseless Luddite rhetoric. You didn't come asking for forgiveness, I don't intend to forgive you. Thanks for making the alts obvious so that someone could find them easily, if that was your intention. :edit: Lowering the classifieds' price floor was a far more creative approach than creating a key price suggestion like 99% of users do, so props for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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