You will go up the price of the white / black paintings in the future?

[unanormal]

Hi all friends. Sorry for my bad English.

 

 

My question is the following:

 

In the summer of 2015 I bought 500 white paint about $4.50 (at the Mann Co. Store). I thought the price would rise and could sell for a little more. But in late 2015 they began to sell $1 or $2 (at the Mann Co. Store). And now they are selling for $1. My question is, Is it possible to return to rise in price in the future? Or have I lost everything invested?

 

Also welcome any proposals to get my money back (if possible).

 

Do not know if this is the right subforum for these questions. But I think if anyone can tell me, is probably backpack.tf forum. If you know a better subforo, I'll thank you to tell me.

 

 

 

Thanks in advance for your time and effort.

[Manfred]

The white/black paints bought from the Mann Co Store back in Christmas were actually uncraftable, meaning they were different than the craftable ones you bought in Summer 2015. However, there is a trend that those paints are falling in price, so to be honest, you are starting to lose profit.

[Knight]

Because of the swissmas sale, the supply went waaaay up, and the demand sort of stayed the same. It'll take a long time, but if there aren't any more sales like the one we had this christmas, it'll probably go back up. I'm talking maybe this summer or fall.

[unanormal]

The white/black paints bought from the Mann Co Store back in Christmas were actually uncraftable, meaning they were different than the craftable ones you bought in Summer 2015. However, there is a trend that those paints are falling in price, so to be honest, you are starting to lose profit.

I buy them in the summer of 2015. All were "craftable". But at Christmas 2015 all my paintings became "non-craftable". In the store, "mann co" TF2, still worth approximately 2 keys. But in the market of the community no longer worth anything. Yes... I think there is no way to get my money. I do not know what to do with these 500 paintings.

[The Oddball]

Sell them all on backpack.tf for 1 key and kill the market

[unanormal]

Because of the swissmas sale, the supply went waaaay up, and the demand sort of stayed the same. It'll take a long time, but if there aren't any more sales like the one we had this christmas, it'll probably go back up. I'm talking maybe this summer or fall.

Yes, exactly. I was saving money for several years to wait to come out summer sales. And finally they came out rebates in summer 2015. But I did not expect to return to lower to -75% in 2015 Christmas. Sincerely, I do not mind waiting one year or 2. I just hope to sell the paintings for the same price you bought them. If another downgrade in summer / Christmas, I will have no chance.

[unanormal]

Sell them all on backpack.tf for 1 key and kill the market

Yes. Backpack.tf selling them would be impossible. Now they sold to 9-10 ref. If I want to regain some of my money, I guess I should be later, and sell into the market community.

[Manfred]

Sell them all on backpack.tf for 1 key and kill the market

After that, I'll price them at 1 key, like how I ruined the price of the craftable black paint.

[Royal]

I can see them slowly going up after some time. If they won't go on sale next summer, they'll probably fully recover; othwerwise they'll drop even more after the next sale.

 

However, nobody can tell or even guess if they'll go on sale anytime soon. During winter 2013, they were 50% off. After that, there weren't any Mann Co. sale for like 1,5 years, yet we had 3 big sales in the second half of 2015. So I don't see any logic in Valve's thinking.

[Scott Bakula]

So I don't see any logic in Valve's thinking.

 

They sold a metric fuckton of paint because enough people were dazzled by the sale to buy them in the triple digits. And after the sale, at least an asston of that went up on the SCM, netting Valve even more profit.

[Дебра]

Hopefully this will be a lesson to you, never invest all your money, or large chunks even, into one investment. All investments come with risks, if there were no risks everyone would be investing their money.

[Budi]

Gamble them all on sweetstakes and either lose or win big. 

[Gren]

There's one thing here that's not adding up: 

 

So you bought paint on sale during the summer sale.  Paint before the sale was 2 keys, during the sale it was ~1.6 then and as far as I remember it returned to 2 keys pretty much right after the sale.  So my question is, why were you still sitting on 500 paints 6 months later?  It's not like they were ever going to rise above the price at the Mann Co store.  

 

Anyway....

 

As for price, who knows when (or if) it'll return to 2 keys.  Paint is 2 keys at the mann co store meaning that there is no new supply of cheap paint, but there are probably millions bought at the cheap price so supply won't be returning to normal anytime soon.  It'll probably take 1 or 2 events with new cosmetics that will increase the demand of paints  in order for prices to rise.  

[NotWarlizard]

So let me get this straight...you spent 2.2 thousand dollars of paints in one go? Why not by stocks with that money.

 

It will probably take 1 year for it to reach $2.5, and even at that price you have a 1 thousand dollar loss.

 

There is a saying: never gamble the money you can't loose. So in other words, just look at it as a loss.

 

Also, I'm guessing you made your backpack private thinking you were smart and you didn't want people finding out.

[unanormal]

I can see them slowly going up after some time. If they won't go on sale next summer, they'll probably fully recover; othwerwise they'll drop even more after the next sale.

 

However, nobody can tell or even guess if they'll go on sale anytime soon. During winter 2013, they were 50% off. After that, there weren't any Mann Co. sale for like 1,5 years, yet we had 3 big sales in the second half of 2015. So I don't see any logic in Valve's thinking.

Yes. He spent several years without rebates.

Hopefully this will be a lesson to you, never invest all your money, or large chunks even, into one investment. All investments come with risks, if there were no risks everyone would be investing their money.

That's right, next time I'll be more careful.

There's one thing here that's not adding up: 

 

So you bought paint on sale during the summer sale.  Paint before the sale was 2 keys, during the sale it was ~1.6 then and as far as I remember it returned to 2 keys pretty much right after the sale.  So my question is, why were you still sitting on 500 paints 6 months later?  It's not like they were ever going to rise above the price at the Mann Co store.  

 

Anyway....

 

As for price, who knows when (or if) it'll return to 2 keys.  Paint is 2 keys at the mann co store meaning that there is no new supply of cheap paint, but there are probably millions bought at the cheap price so supply won't be returning to normal anytime soon.  It'll probably take 1 or 2 events with new cosmetics that will increase the demand of paints  in order for prices to rise. 

There are approximately 70,000

So let me get this straight...you spent 2.2 thousand dollars of paints in one go? Why not by stocks with that money.

 

It will probably take 1 year for it to reach $2.5, and even at that price you have a 1 thousand dollar loss.

 

There is a saying: never gamble the money you can't loose. So in other words, just look at it as a loss.

 

Also, I'm guessing you made your backpack private thinking you were smart and you didn't want people finding out.

Yes. I thought it no longer will make more sales. The valve cuts are once every four years. The last time was in 2012 (-25%). I thought it was a safe bet. Nobody expected a (-75%).

 

About my private bag, I do not know what you mean exactly. I have no paintings in this account. The translator is not accurate, but I'm not hiding from people or preventing people from finding out.

[Gren]

So let me get this straight...you spent 2.2 thousand dollars of paints in one go? Why not by stocks with that money.

 

 

 

Off-topic, but that's an even worse idea considering how the markets have been acting for the past 10 years or so.  I have friends who've lost much, much more than 2 grand on stocks....

[NotWarlizard]

Off-topic, but that's an even worse idea considering how the markets have been acting for the past 10 years or so.  I have friends who've lost much, much more than 2 grand on stocks....

 

He probably bought risky investments, there are many long-term, low-risk investment options that are a good fit for the normal person.

[dtn]

on 2013, lime/pink and white/black paints got a -50% sale, their price has fallen, but after 3 or 4 months, the price of the paints on sale came back to its normal price.

 

white/black paints got a -75% sale on the late of 2015, I'm pretty sure their price will come back to normal (~2 keys), in 5-6 months.

[NotWarlizard]

on 2013, lime/pink and white/black paints got a -50% sale, their price has fallen, but after 3 or 4 months, the price of the paints on sale came back to its normal price.

 

white/black paints got a -75% sale on the late of 2015, I'm pretty sure their price will come back to normal (~2 keys), in 5-6 months.

 

Nope. you're correlating 2013 vs 2015, that's two data points. The thing that's missing is the sheer amount of people who bought high amounts of white and black paint. Just this guy alone bough 500. I've seen many backpacks with 100+. Many with 50+. This means there is a market saturation of at least 5,000 paints waiting to be sold. Before the discount (if I'm not mistaken) paints used to sell around 10 per day of white/black paint. Sooo... at least a year, and that's hoping there aren't more discounts, which valve noticed they made a lot of money so they might.

[Shrap -tt-]

There's one thing here that's not adding up: 

 

So you bought paint on sale during the summer sale.  Paint before the sale was 2 keys, during the sale it was ~1.6 then and as far as I remember it returned to 2 keys pretty much right after the sale.  So my question is, why were you still sitting on 500 paints 6 months later?  It's not like they were ever going to rise above the price at the Mann Co store.  

Agree, I'm calling troll 

If I'm wrong then my sympathy, sucks to be you 

[#NewWizard]

Damn, the recovery is very slow. And you know that when the price will climb to some 2 euros, thousands of paints will be dumbed and the price will go back down again. Does the summer sale has tf2 market sale? I hope not.

[TNC Phoenix®]

People here seem to forget that Valve sneaked in a price raise on lime/pink to same price as black/white. 

My guess is that the most popular paints are most expensive.  

Now Valve probably dropped the price on black/white momentarily to get a stock of available paints. 

Remember alot of transactions today are made on Steam Market where Valve gets a percentage of each transaction. 

 

 

My guess is Valve will as of now sit back and collect the money when each paint keeps swapping hands. 

 

Also on a sidenote. 
Valve knows exactly how the market is doing. 

For example, why have Valve not released 1 st gen effects in new crates? 

Why are new unusual effects locked to crate events?

Because Valve knows not to screw with the market too much. 

Last time Valve made a screw around was with the Halloween spell glitch that got patched. That one angered alot of traders. 

 

If Valve now screws up by say making black/white paint or all paints cheaper permanently, they know over time nobody will buy (since the trader stock will be abundant) and eventually people will move away remembering how Valve screwed them. 

 

It has happened before,  (remember retired hats? which was a disaster)

 

My guess why everything is taking longer time today is because the market is bigger and also easier today. Back in 2013 you had to trade to get stuff, and most large sellers kept firm prices. 

Now the seller with lowest price will easily be shown to everybody on Steam Market.  And there is always somebody selling cheap, even selling unusual hats for nothing at all..... 

[#NewWizard]

delete pls

[Royal]

My guess why everything is taking longer time today is because the market is bigger and also easier today. Back in 2013 you had to trade to get stuff, and most large sellers kept firm prices. 

Now the seller with lowest price will easily be shown to everybody on Steam Market.  And there is always somebody selling cheap, even selling unusual hats for nothing at all.....

It's more like the other way around. SCM was a common thing by the end of 2013, and buying/selling was much easier back then (no trade lock, no additional confirmation etc.) I think the main reason why everything is taking longer is that a lot of people quited trading due to these annoying security steps introduced by Valve. The people we have now are mostly resellers only here to make some profit, which means the supply is way bigger than the demand for almost everything out there.

 

Also, Valve don't have to permanently reduce the price of white/black paints to ruin their value. Seeing how slow the recovery is, it's enough to make a similar discount once in a while (like two times a year), and the price will never recover.

[Royal]

It seems like they're slowly going up now (especially blacks). Not a drastic rise, but it's still something.