TF2's Economy

[Mitten]

I've dabbled within the trading scene since its introduction to the game back in like 2010(?). For years people have been claiming that the trading scene has been fading, but most of the time i considered it to be the same as the "tf2 is dead lmao" spiel that has been spewed for years. However coming back once again, I notice the trading scene seems to be relatively weak compared to just a year ago. Values of most cosmetics have plummeted, the value of refined has crashed, and many promo items are relatively worthless. I guess the point of this thread is to ask if anyone would consider taking the time to explain to me what exactly happened, what the future for the in-game economy is, and if there is anything that might help dredge the games economy out of its hole.

 

Thank You!

[ksolis01]

Basic economics. More cosmetics in the game means everything goes down. Ref is unlimited and free. People are finally realizing promos are overrated. The only way to boost this economy is increasing the players who are willing to put money into this game.

[Bewitched]

Undercutting

[Kote]

We have an economy with no reliable way of getting rid of currency.  As such, this currency (ref) and things created from it (hats) are steadily losing value.  Sure stuff like undercutting is an issue, but this is an issue based off the fundamentals of the economy, nothing to do with how we run it or bots or whatever.  Either way, trading of hats and small items is worthless because the hats are practically worthless.  Case and point, unless you're willing to sit in a trade server good luck getting anything done.

[Apo]

By increasing the amount of items ingame, without a proper sink, other items will continue to fall.

 

Why would someone want a bills hat or buds when they can get hundreds of other hats?

The supply stays the same, but demand falls, because people have more options. More things to spend their money on. So, the demand for particular items, falls.

 

With more and more unusuals coming in to the game as well, without any sort of sink, all unusuals should theoretically keep falling, since there's more alternatives coming in to the game.

Of course, with rare (discontinued) collector's unusuals/items, the value could go up.

 

Ex: Halloween miscs. Usually 0-5 exist for a certain effect per class. Now, the supply cannot go up, since miscs are no longer unboxable in unusual form, and old H'ween effects seem to be discontinued.

Usually these items are with collectors already, and won't sell unless someone else really wants it, and will overpay in pure.

Alternatively, nobody may want it, and the collector may have to sell for a loss.

[HarryG]

Econ. Promos aren't in demand, there is no price ceiling or floor so there is no equilibrium for ref and so it's really cheap and unusual hats are in demand. Unusual taunts are not in demand because there was a recent surge in quantity and so price dropped. Retired unusuals and collector's cosmetics are rising in value with no end in sight because they are in demand and have a perfectly inelastic supply. 

[Xergoyf]

Econ. Promos aren't in demand, there is no price ceiling or floor so there is no equilibrium for ref and so it's really cheap and unusual hats are in demand. Unusual taunts are not in demand because there was a recent surge in quantity and so price dropped. Retired unusuals and collector's cosmetics are rising in value with no end in sight because they are in demand and have a perfectly inelastic supply. 

 

Collector's cosmetics are only perfectly inelastic because of you. xD