Keys & their prices?

[Sprinkz]

if this is in the wrong section, then I apologize (please forgive me.) and request it be moved to the correct location if so. 

 

so, I've been watching the prices for keys lately - like the vast majority of all of us have

and I keep coming up with the same question. where did all this inflation come from all of a sudden?

 

I'm not trying to start a debate or argument here about what the price should or shouldn't be,

just curious as to where this came from or what caused it so suddenly. 

 

surely it couldn't be everyone just started to just high-ball their asking prices right?

it's just the fact that I even have to ask myself, and the forum, that makes it feel so unnatural. 

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Explained it pretty thoroughly Here.

 

Quick summary (although i would suggest reading that).

>Exponential increase in traders (with very little change in key value)

>Buds rose from 12-27 Keys while keys only rose from 2-2.66 Ref

>Tons of idling-->devaluation of metal-->Higher Metal:Key ratio

>Halloween+Marketplace

During Halloween the demand increased bringing the price up, valve added the marketplace while the key supply was on the decline thanks to halloween. Speculators started buying up keys as they predicted they would go up in price (and they did), and its speculators that keep supporting the market increase. Buyers are willing to pay because they think it will still climb. BUT, since key prices appear to have leveld off (for now anyway), i'm going to take a guess and say that the number of speculators has diminished and keys should level off some time soon around 4.66~ Ref.

[Sprinkz]

Explained it pretty thoroughly Here.

Thank you, I appreciate it.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Edited my post, so be sure to read it.

[Qusk]

fuck keys

[Jester]

Don't forget the introduction of MVM. That adds a lot of metal into the system too. a Full 6 man voucher group gets you lot's of metal fast.

[F CHARLIE]

Explained it pretty thoroughly Here.

 

Quick summary (although i would suggest reading that).

>Exponential increase in traders (with very little change in key value)

>Buds rose from 12-27 Keys while keys only rose from 2-2.66 Ref

>Tons of idling-->devaluation of metal-->Higher Metal:Key ratio

>Halloween+Marketplace

During Halloween the demand increased bringing the price up, valve added the marketplace while the key supply was on the decline thanks to halloween. Speculators started buying up keys as they predicted they would go up in price (and they did), and its speculators that keep supporting the market increase. Buyers are willing to pay because they think it will still climb. BUT, since key prices appear to have leveld off (for now anyway), i'm going to take a guess and say that the number of speculators has diminished and keys should level off some time soon around 4.66~ Ref.

 

1. Most new players don't become key traders because many don't become traders at all and would still buy thier keys even when they become aware of trading.

 

2. Buds are a wearable item that are worn by 70% of its owners.  Some part of it's increase has to do with its desirability.  Just as the TUX will be less desirable and will have a much lower end price.  Once it showed that it had stable high value it became suitable for universal exchange but it is an item and doesnt share that many properties with the key.  Bills are the same.

 

3. From 3/4/13 the volume of ref in the game rose 2.5% while the volume of keys in the game rose 6.9%.  Trading price of keys also rose faster than

the volume increase of ref.  New players in the game simply expands the economy.  Remember they also get other kinds of drops like salvage

crates, taunts, high value hats.  And how long did it take the rescue ranger, vacc and lose cannon to become scrap worthy?  thats an

interesting number to study when discusing the inflationary effect of free drops.  I have never believed that ref volume was the cause for the

price increase.  Not even a major contributing factor, it was just easier to blame.

 

4.  I thought holloween had a special key and then shouldnt effect normal key demand.

 

 

As it appears that the true reason is the second hand market effect on primary trading market than it is reasonable to suggest that that trading price could lvl off at around 5 ref.  That assumes that the secondary market price for key won't rise to its more natural price that is closer to $2.5, given all other factors equel.

 

I suggest that we set the price at a higher level now and let it come down to the right point.  It should be set near the mann co key price lvl which would be 7+ ref.  The interesting side effects would be a benifit to item traders as key traders try to move their now deflating stock to stable items.  Considering the fraud and profiteering that has happened I don't think that will be a problem.

[Crabislav]

lol @ "idle accounts" argument

no one came up with this until this halloween yet idlers existed 4 years before and nobody was talking about them throughout 2 years after TF2 became F2P

Stop kidding yourselves.

[F CHARLIE]

lol @ "idle accounts" argument

no one came up with this until this halloween yet idlers existed 4 years before and nobody was talking about them throughout 2 years after TF2 became F2P

Stop kidding yourselves.

my sentiment

[RuffRyders]

lol @ "idle accounts" argument

no one came up with this until this halloween yet idlers existed 4 years before and nobody was talking about them throughout 2 years after TF2 became F2P

Stop kidding yourselves.

Exactly. People here always have the most stupid theories, saying metal, idle, halloween etc. But basically it is just the blame of greedy sellers and backpack.tf accepting greed

 

Key voting in a nutshell

 

Try to gather proof ahead of time.

 

Bottom end rises 1 scrap.

then

Top end rises 1 scrap.

then

Bottom end rises 1 scrap.

Repeat.

[Crabislav]

I already made a huge post in one of the suggesstions proving that there's nothing that makes keys go up in price except seller's greed. I've proven every counter-argument wrong. 

inb4stupidSupply&Demandtheory that I've torn into pieces too.

[F CHARLIE]

i just got banned from outpost forrums for "causing trouble"

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Idle accounts is not a new argument, it's been around for over a year (or so), and the idle account, you not the existence of accounts bc idling didn't become big immediately.

 

And you can't blame the rise in the seller's, but rather the buyers who are more than willing to pay what the sellers ask.

 

Furthermore, and bptf isn't really affecting key prices. I've been selling keys at 4.33 ref with no issues yet bptf has moved in about a week. Whether botf speeds it up is still a bit unclear, and but it most certainly is not causing the rise.

[F CHARLIE]

Price needs to go to 7.33

[Crabislav]

Idle accounts is not a new argument, it's been around for over a year (or so), and the idle account, you not the existence of accounts bc idling didn't become big immediately.

 

And you can't blame the rise in the seller's, but rather the buyers who are more than willing to pay what the sellers ask.

 

Furthermore, and bptf isn't really affecting key prices. I've been selling keys at 4.33 ref with no issues yet bptf has moved in about a week. Whether botf speeds it up is still a bit unclear, and but it most certainly is not causing the rise.

It's been said million times that if you need keys quick, you'll pay what people ask. Price rises only because of quickbuyers. Nobody is willing to pay over 4 ref.

[F CHARLIE]

It's been said million times that if you need keys quick, you'll pay what people ask. Price rises only because of quickbuyers. Nobody is willing to pay over 4 ref.

it will be paid until it is at a level where there is no difference between it and mann co store and secondary market

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

it will be paid until it is at a level where there is no difference between it and mann co store and secondary market

Except as the ref price of keys increase, and the dollar value of ref decreases., and so they will never be the same.

[Liddojunior]

How Keys Go up:

 

Seller sells key at X price. X price is the desired exchange rate for buyers. Buyers buy keys quick.

Seller runs out of keys quick. Rule of thumb for trading, if you sell out too quick price must be low.

Seller raises by Y and others have followed along. And it continued.

 

Traders have a belief that today's price is better then tomorrows and buy keys up quick. 

Huge amounts of metal owners are continually trying to cash in their metal. 

Selling keys for metal has become a way to lose profit. Leading to less key sellers.

[Arry Waters]

Is it too farfetched to hypothesize that the devaluation of Refined has reduced confidence in traders to use it to convert Keys to Metal and vice-versa? If so, the difference between Keys being sold for Metal and Keys not being sold for Metal would be very large, where Keys being sold for Metal would be on the low end of the ratio.

Think about how much Refined Metal has been devalued in comparison to Keys. If the value of Metal is indeed decreasing, all items should see an increase of Metal value. Unfortunately, this is not the case. No other item that is more commonly traded for Metal has seen any of the price increases the Key has been getting even though the value of Metal has been decreasing. We can safely say that Metal is only being devalued in comparison to Keys.

As Keys go up, and Metal goes down, the prices of items more commonly bought with Keys go up and those commonly bought with Metal go down; but only when comparing between the two currencies. When we see people stating that the value of Keys hasn't changed at all, only the value of Metal is decreasing, and those who say that the value of Keys are indeed increasing; to say that either statement is true or false would be wrong.

To understand this concept, we have to expose the possibility that the TF2 economy is a dualconomy, meaning there are two economies trying to co-exist. As you can guess, the two economies I'm referring to are that of Metal and Keys. Just for this theory, if we can imagine that there are indeed two different economies, if we see the price fluctuations in the Key economy we would be able to see that it has been fairly stable. The same could be said for the Metal economy. Hats are still 1.33 Refined Metal and Bill's are still 8 Keys and have been for a very long time.

Only when the two economies clash, do we see unstable prices. This is uncannily similar to comparing exchange rates between countries. Internally, the Dollar is very stable in the U.S., but globally it's impossible that it won't see some devaluation in a different economy. So what does this have to do with  the TF2 economy? People tend to think of Metal as pennies, nickles, dimes and quarters when dealing with Keys. If the dualconomy exists, then thinking that Metal is change for Keys is a very dangerous concept. When people refer to the two different currencies, they should be comparing them between the Peso and the Dollar. But because all of this happens in the singularity that is TF2, it's understandable that traders would see both Metal and Keys as part of the same economy.

If the prices of Keys and everything bought in Keys are inflating because the prices of Metal and everything bought in Metal are deflating when using them to buy Keys within the dualconomy, why would anyone want to sell their Keys for a constantly devaluing currency? Going back to real world economics, what's the number one reason why people would want to retire in a different country? It is all about the exchange rates. If people could get more with their Dollar, they could do more with their Dollar. If traders can get more and do more with Keys than with Metal, it's no surprise Metal is so constantly devalued.

With the pace that Metal is being devalued, profit off of currency exchanging needs to be done quickly before it takes more Metal to buy the Key back than what you sold it for. This type of business model is very successful with a large inventory of Keys because you can sell for high and buy for cheap at the same time and any losses can be quickly gained back by selling reserved stocks of Keys when a new price emerges. It is very cumbersome work only for those who have recently converted from profiting off from the Metal economy as it is expected because they are not moving as many and as quickly, again only reaffirming how much more you can do with Keys than with Metal.

If it's so difficult to get to the point to have enough Keys in your backpack after profiting in the Metal economy to make a profit off of the cat and mouse chase of currency exchange, is the time spent to get to that point worth it? Is it worth it to get involved in the currency exchange market, to sell and buy Keys with Metal and Metal with Keys? It's up to the individual to decide what they would do with their time, what role Keys and Metal play in the economy/economies. As a trader, I'd rather my Keys and Metal not intermingle. It has come to the point where I must not use Metal to buy Keys or sell my Keys for Metal. I would rather keep Metal and Keys in their own respective economies until they stop drifting apart further away into their own entities and start merging back into one.

[base64]

...

 

 

Best read I had in months. Thanks for writing. 

[Puddilicious]

...

The dichotomy of the metal and key economies stems from the fact they have completely different in-game uses. Trying to artificially tie the two currencies together into a fixed price ratio was always doomed to fail barring closely and carefully administered manipulation of supply and demand by Valve or a direct way to convert one into the other and vice versa.

[Arry Waters]

The dichotomy of the metal and key economies stems from the fact they have completely different in-game uses. Trying to artificially tie the two currencies together into a fixed price ratio was always doomed to fail barring closely and carefully administered manipulation of supply and demand by Valve.

 

Exactly. The only thing Valve has ever done that comes even a hairline close to any regulation of the market was to add a fixed drop rate, craft hats and weapons. If there was more you could do with Metal, it wouldn't be so devalued. There's always been a separation between the two, but it has completely split so far and so quickly in recent time that the conversion blur that used to be there is no longer existent. Many are still holding on the Metal=Change concept that is no longer as applicable as it was.

[Uranium235]

Exactly. The only thing Valve has ever done that comes even a hairline close to any regulation of the market was to add a fixed drop rate, craft hats and weapons. If there was more you could do with Metal, it wouldn't be so devalued. There's always been a separation between the two, but it has completely split so far and so quickly in recent time that the conversion blur that used to be there is no longer existent. Many are still holding on the Metal=Change concept that is no longer as applicable as it was.

 

I completely agree. You wisely did not go into trying to explain the reason why Keys have increased in Metal so fast recently.

 

I tried to make those arguments (2 different "economies" or 2 tiers of items, metal linked to only one of them) numerous times as well, not much success. You won't convince those conspiracy theorists that think greed and bptf are to blame and that the system is broken.

 

There are real world examples of one economy using 2 different currencies, the dollar is accepted in everyday trading in many countries that do not have a stable currency themselves.

So is the Euro, which is, at least was when I was last there, even preferred to the own currency in Turkey for example.

You get better exchange rates with your merchant that has a newspaper close by (and they all do) than with any bank or exchange booth.

 

But the analogy is still a little flawed, as was already said, money has no direct link to goods, unlike metal has to craft hats / miscs. So the TF2 economy is unique and it is impossible to explain everything with stuff you learn in business school.

[Arry Waters]

I completely agree. You wisely did not go into trying to explain the reason why Keys have increased in Metal so fast recently.

 

I tried to make those arguments (2 different "economies" or 2 tiers of items, metal linked to only one of them) numerous times as well, not much success. You won't convince those conspiracy theorists that think greed and bptf are to blame and that the system is broken.

 

There are real world examples of one economy using 2 different currencies, the dollar is accepted in everyday trading in many countries that do not have a stable currency themselves.

So is the Euro, which is, at least was when I was last there, even preferred to the own currency in Turkey for example.

You get better exchange rates with your merchant that has a newspaper close by (and they all do) than with any bank or exchange booth.

 

But the analogy is still a little flawed, as was already said, money has no direct link to goods, unlike metal has to craft hats / miscs. So the TF2 economy is unique and it is impossible to explain everything with stuff you learn in business school.

 

Well, Bp.tf is kinda broken. If you read my first post, I'm also questioning whether Keys have any direct link in Metal being devalued so much that it takes more and more to buy Keys with it. If Metal is so undesirable and useless, why are people even selling their Keys for Metal? I'm pretty confident that the majority of people trading Keys do not sell them for Metal. The conversion of Keys to Promos, Festives, Salvaged Crates, Unusuals and many more items almost exclusively traded for Keys could very well be affecting Key prices in Metal more than Key sellers on OutPost ever could.

[Uranium235]

Well, Bp.tf is kinda broken...

 

And I thought you came to the conclusion that bp.tf is not the reason and that the system is not broken, my bad.