TheVirtualEconomist's opinion on how the lower the price of keys (Metal sink)

[Happysedits]

 

He talks about adding a ref sink, he has quite a few ideas that some of you suggested here http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/58932-adding-ref-sinks-to-tf2-i-need-your-help/and explains why some would work and some not.

 

[Erik]

I doubt Valve is going to make a 'metal sink' though.

[MrDeepDarkmind]

Didn't we already talked about this

Didn't some people think it would kill the economy while others thought they can just do it but it's hard to implement because trading in tf2 has trading bots with a fuck ton of metal, Pretty sure VirturalEconomist already made a thread about this

[Axle Change]

I feel like the misconception here is that inflation is bad. Inflation is not bad, its simply a result of a growing number of users and is not really harmful imo. Refined isn't going anywhere, so making metal sinks would just devalue other items.

[Jacobmeister]

I doubt Valve is going to make a 'metal sink' though.

 

I wouldn't rule it out; as unlikely as it is, it's happened in the past with the strongbox cosmetic strangifiers.

[Haxor Gaming]

Another Point that he made in the second vid, was that bp.tf could have all the currency set around keys, not refined metal. So keys would have a fixed price (Probably around 2.40 or lower to correspond more like SCM) and then refined based on that would change value on keys. Ex: Right now keys are valued at 26.55 ref. With this system, keys would be fixed to around 2.40. 2.40/26.55 which makes the value of Refined metal around 0.09 USD or 9 cents. This could help the problem with the ref and keys for bp.tf

[Budi]

I feel like the misconception here is that inflation is bad. Inflation is not bad, its simply a result of a growing number of users and is not really harmful imo. Refined isn't going anywhere, so making metal sinks would just devalue other items.

 

Apparently you aren't very versed in maco-economics then. Inflation is certainly not a good thing, because it creates huge issues with purchasing power of the people looking to acquire goods and also creates larger gaps between the haves and have nots. There have been very many examples of inflation that have crippled entire world economies dating back to ancient times. 

[∞Ramses]

About that last solution

• Hackers will ruin it
• AFK's will ruin it
• Guys trying to be funny will ruin it
• Being in the same shitty team every play will ruin it
• Competitive already has a long waiting cue these days, I don't think this will improve at all when a refined fee is implemented.

 

Just my thoughts.

[McBro]

Never considered the "Pay ref for a match" mode but honestly think it sounds fun. I'd love to see it come in-game. Another idea like this is a new type of MvM but instead of tickets it uses refined. The rewards could be a new set of non-stock aussie and botkillers (Like the unused uranium botkiller).

 

My personal idea for the idlers (Old idea I had but I'll throw it out here) was to make F2P drops all untradable. So if a idler really wanting to make 8 cents off refined they'll have to buy something off the Mann-co store first. Not the most solid idea but an old one I had.

 

Lastly I hear people say "Valve won't add a refined sink. Ha ha ha idiot!" far too much. They've openly mentioned it and acknowledged this with Jewlander. Even if they don't do it now then they'll have to consider it if the economy severely declines in the future.

[Budi]

 

Lastly I hear people say "Valve won't add a refined sink. Ha ha ha idiot!" far too much. They've openly mentioned it and acknowledged this with Jewlander. Even if they don't do it now then they'll have to consider it if the economy severely declines in the future.

 

And this was already implemented by them with the End of the Line Bread Boxes. So they've done it before and know it works, they certainly will keep it in mind for the near future I'm sure. 

[Axle Change]

Apparently you aren't very versed in maco-economics then. Inflation is certainly not a good thing, because it creates huge issues with purchasing power of the people looking to acquire goods and also creates larger gaps between the haves and have nots. There have been very many examples of inflation that have crippled entire world economies dating back to ancient times. 

Population growth has to be met with inflation. More and more accounts, though not active users, are created every day. Inflation is irrelevant to purchasing power, and if anything it is more favorable to have a smaller denomination of currency than no alternative. The difference between tf2 real world examples of currency collapse is that tf2 has multiple currencies while countries largely lacked these, providing the foundation for economic collapse because of a single currency. 

 

Stable and consistent inflation is generally considered part of a stable economy. Key prices have been following a regular trend of increasing, with the exception of a few moments of panic selling.

 

I feel like inflation is always what gets pinned as the problem when honestly the real issue is that this game is dying. When trading was at its "prime", key prices were also increasing, yet it is only now that people pin it as an issue.

[McBro]

And this was already implemented by them with the End of the Line Bread Boxes. So they've done it before and know it works, they certainly will keep it in mind for the near future I'm sure. 

**Love and war added the bread boxes

 

But yeah

[TheWiz]

Population growth has to be met with inflation. More and more accounts, though not active users, are created every day. Inflation is irrelevant to purchasing power, and if anything it is more favorable to have a smaller denomination of currency than no alternative. The difference between tf2 real world examples of currency collapse is that tf2 has multiple currencies while countries largely lacked these, providing the foundation for economic collapse because of a single currency. 

 

Stable and consistent inflation is generally considered part of a stable economy. Key prices have been following a regular trend of increasing, with the exception of a few moments of panic selling.

 

I feel like inflation is always what gets pinned as the problem when honestly the real issue is that this game is dying. When trading was at its "prime", key prices were also increasing, yet it is only now that people pin it as an issue.

If we go back a year (keys were 18 ref) and I had 18 ref, my purchasing power would be 1 key. That same 18 ref today is less than 1 key. Please tell me again how inflation is irrelevant to purchasing power as both inflation and location affect a person's purchasing power. And yes, stable inflation that is kept in check can be beneficial, when it is considerably low (U.S.'s inflation rate is ~2-3%) as that allows for growth without causing too many negative effects for everyone. Using the key price from a year ago and today the inflation rate is (((26.55 - 18) / 18) x 100%) = 47.5%. 

[Apo]

My personal idea for the idlers (Old idea I had but I'll throw it out here) was to make F2P drops all untradable. So if a idler really wanting to make 8 cents off refined they'll have to buy something off the Mann-co store first. Not the most solid idea but an old one I had.

 

 

I'm pretty sure this is already a thing.

 

 

And this was already implemented by them with the End of the Line Bread Boxes. So they've done it before and know it works, they certainly will keep it in mind for the near future I'm sure.

 

Wasn't that love & war?

[McBro]

 

 

I'm pretty sure this is already a thing.

 

 

Wasn't that love & war?

Yes and no. Free to plays can't trade but after they become P2P they can. My idea is entirely make the weapons have the untradable quality

[Budi]

Yes and no. Free to plays can't trade but after they become P2P they can. My idea is entirely make the weapons have the untradable quality

 

Sorry correction, not End of the Line, I was thinking Expiration Date with the video that came out and two things with "E" made me think of End of the Line. 

[Budi]

 

Stable and consistent inflation is generally considered part of a stable economy. Key prices have been following a regular trend of increasing, with the exception of a few moments of panic selling.

 

I feel like inflation is always what gets pinned as the problem when honestly the real issue is that this game is dying. When trading was at its "prime", key prices were also increasing, yet it is only now that people pin it as an issue.

 

First, yes, the key is stability and consistency over time. I can't really say that's been the case with key/ref ratios over the last 2 years. The rise has been pretty sharp. 

 

And I will add I completely agree with you on the second point. The game is absolutely dying, I've been saying that for years with no one listening and all the little children around here throwing out stupid rhetoric like "the economy is as strong as ever" "the game won't die ever" "if it dies it will be 10 years later" blah blah blah and spawning useless facts like players in game over 24 hours, etc. All games die eventually, it's a reality. 

[Argos]

From what I've heard the problem isn't really the notion of a metal sink, the real issue is related to how effectively bot/idle accounts operate. The reason metal sinks in the past have been sort of sudden, quick, and convoluted is because idlers cannot plan around them. A sustained and reliable metal sink, however, will have its effects nullified by more aggressive farming and give Valve an even more daunting challenge in terms of handling idling. Until mass idling is "solved", I would expect future metal sinks to come in the form of random, limited time events, if at all.

 

 

Yes and no. Free to plays can't trade but after they become P2P they can. My idea is entirely make the weapons have the untradable quality

 

That helps nothing and frustrates potential F2P's. Mass idling accounts are already premium.

[Gren]

The concept of ref sinks (and item sinks for stranges, craft hats, etc.) isn't new.  But here are the facts:

 

We haven't had a low craft update in at least 2 years (meaning an event where the new hats are actually craftable)

We haven't had an event that uses ref since the breadboxes, again years ago

 

Valve has fully embraced the CSGO model of items, tiered skins and tiered cosmetics which have the item sink built in via trade-up contracts.  Considering all of that, it seems highly unlikely that Valve has any intentions at this point of dealing with ref inflation.  Not really surprising, since that problem is pretty much limited to trading and doesn't affect SCM.  Valve would prefer it if all item exchanges were done via SCM (for more or less obvious reasons) so I don't think they're going to help out in this area anytime soon. 

[BovineUgrad]

I would oppose anything that would discourage people from using community servers over valves, so replacing the current drop system with using drops in competitive play instead is a turn off and I'd bitterly oppose such a move. A metal sink would be nice but honestly, the ridiculous ratio of refined to keys discourages idling... you're better off collecting cans and buying steam cards than idling for keys even if you sell them via paypal.