Using scrap.tf's unusual bot for unusual suggestions

[Zeus_Junior]

Since scrap.tf always buys unusuals at a crazy discount and sells at a less crazy discount I think it Shouldnt be used for unusual suggestions.

http://backpack.tf/vote?creator=76561198232041512&state=0,1,2

This user has made quite a few unusual suggestions using only scrap.tf as proof. (No hate to Beaser)

I just think that this should be against the rules.

 

I suck at writing things and english is not my native language. Also I am doing this on my phone.

Thats realy all. Would like to hear what you think about this

[Geel]

I second this. Do not use our unusual bot for pricing.

[Mengh.]

First of all, http://backpack.tf/item/1193677956 - LOL

 

I somewhat understand where you're coming from, in the fact that the Scrap.tf Unusual Bot performs non-negotiable trades, expecting pure for the hat or willing to take heavy overpay, using their pricing system.

 

Let's say the Flaming Lantern Executioner had 2 more sales, both being around 240 - 280 keys, unusual overpay. 200 pure keys, out of someone's pocket, is a heck of a lot, and that is not possible unless you're willing to save up or use cash to buy the keys immediately. Because of this, it is likely to see someone be discouraged to attempt to save up as it's not worth a long time collecting the keys unless you're desperate to buy it. Furthermore, with the way Scrap.tf prices unusuals (30-40% off when you're selling yours), it would be only desirable to go to the other sellers of the unusual as they'd be pricing the unusuals at a better rate and the buyout is negotiable. In those instances, you can rule out Scrap.tf.

 

The only real reason for using an Unusual from the Scrap.tf Bot as proof is if the unusual (clean) has been listed at a high enough discount, yet, hasn't been sold in months. That's my take on it.

[Budi]

Given that it's pretty obvious that anybody buying or selling to the bot is quickbuying/selling, that pretty much should exclude those sales from being used. 

[Zeus_Junior]

I second this. Do not use our unusual bot for pricing.

You heard it boys. 

 

First of all, http://backpack.tf/item/1193677956 - LOL

 

I somewhat understand where you're coming from, in the fact that the Scrap.tf Unusual Bot performs non-negotiable trades, expecting pure for the hat or willing to take heavy overpay, using their pricing system.

 

Let's say the Flaming Lantern Executioner had 2 more sales, both being around 240 - 280 keys, unusual overpay. 200 pure keys, out of someone's pocket, is a heck of a lot, and that is not possible unless you're willing to save up or use cash to buy the keys immediately. Because of this, it is likely to see someone attempt to save up as it's not worth a long time collecting the keys unless you're desperate to buy it. Furthermore, with the way Scrap.tf prices unusuals (30-40% off when you're selling yours), it would be only desirable to go to the other sellers of the unusual as they'd be pricing the unusuals at a better rate and the buyout is negotiable. In those instances, you can rule out Scrap.tf.

 

The only real reason for using an Unusual from the Scrap.tf Bot as proof is if the unusual (clean) has been listed at a high enough discount, yet, hasn't been sold in months. That's my take on it.

Months. Not just one month. That's what annoys me the most about those suggestions. For an unusual worth 100+ Keys its not very weird that it cant sell for a month. 

 

Given that it's pretty obvious that anybody buying or selling to the bot is quickbuying/selling, that pretty much should exclude those sales from being used. 

Exactly ^

[Alberny]

I agree, but if a Hat cannot sell at 100 Keys less than its current value it needs a drop, there is no way around that.

 

The only thing we could change is that the time the hat has to be unsold for is extended.

Edit: Or rules specifically dealing with pricing based on scrap.tf eg. Time, value etc.

 

What scrap.tf could to:

This does not mean that I support that or we. Just something they could do so we get to accurately price a hat.

 

-Advertise

-Public auctions on these hats open for a week starting from 0 pinned on the frontpage for 1 week.

 

I wrote this on mobile, sorry for spelling mistakes etc.

[Zeus_Junior]

WORDS

100 Keys less and it cant sell, sure that's in need of a drop but not after just 1 month of it being there. Not everyone has 200 keys in their back pocket .-.

[UniqueBob]

100 Keys less and it cant sell, sure that's in need of a drop but not after just 1 month of it being there. Not everyone has 200 keys in their back pocket .-.

Not everyone has 100 keys, but you dont need everyone in order to sell a hat.

 

Good hats, like the 13th hour conjurer's I once saw, go instantly. Other hats don't, and leave in about a week or so, like the GE HWNN I once saw in the bot.

Still others take a month, or even more, and there's a good reason why they do. They're simply not worth buying, and not worth the price they are currently valued at.

 

And if something isnt worth what it's valued it, its fine to make a suggestion on it.

 

 

Also, the buyout drops are a placeholder for a hypothetical sale that could occur. Since the item is listed at X, and has been at X for a bit, if it sells for X it wouldnt be called a quicksale. So, the price is made under the assumption that the item will eventually sell for X or lower.

[Erik]

Usually it's a quick sell so it wouldn't be fair to include those sales in a suggestion. However if the item clearly needs a drop and the others sales are around the same value as the scrap.tf sale, then it could be used as supportive proof.

[Xergoyf]

Imo scrap.tf is the BEST evidence supporting a drop of a hat.  I'm gonna go through all the common arguments and try to disprove them below:

 

Argument #1: People don't look for the hats they want on scrap.tf 

Scrap.tf gets a TON of traffic; I bet just as many people have heard of scrap.tf as backpack.tf. Compare that to the amount of people looking at the Flaming Lantern Executioner Page. Lol its not even a competition. The mods argument is that people don't look on scrap.tf for the hats they want to buy, and that is sort of true, but the underlying truth is that if it was a hat that people would want at the price it is, the quickbuyers would snatch it up and easily sell for a profit. So wether its the quickbuyers or the people who want the hat, if its not selling at an insane discount, its not worth its current price, and needs a drop.

 

Argument #2: Keys take awhile to accumulate.

If you have any experience with the bot, you know the nice hats sell within minutes of being sold to the bot. Of course for high-tier like the Flaming Lantern Executioner, this take a bit longer, usually from 1 day to 1 week. Since 1 week is the amount of time you have to wait for keys to be tradable, anything longer than that shows its  price is too high. If you follow the unsold system in the rules (25 keys = 1 week, 50 = 2, 75 =3, more = 1 month) the length of 1 month make good sence for scrap.tf as well. That's 4 weeks of people being able to buy keys and buy it. That's a while.

 

Argument #3: Only quickbuyers/sellers use scrap.tf, so everything should be invalid.

I think people don't really realize quickbuyers are looking for hats that sell well, as I mentioned in point 1. Quickbuyer see unsellable inflated cancer such as the Flaming Lantern Executioner and purposely make a choice not to buy it, even if the discount is good and they have enough keys, simply because it is impossible to sell for more. And there are a TON of people looking, all with different opinions on hats, so something being unsold for 1 month with that many smart traders viewing there is no way the hat should be worth its current price. I also want to mention that there are plenty of people who are not looking for profit that go to the bot for an unusual. Maybe they got some keys and are looking for an unusual, Scrap.tf shows you a lot of hats, and is especially nice for people who are not sure what they are looking for.

 

All in all, scrap.tf is a great source to show if a hat is worth too much, and I think the mods and people like Beaser are correct in following the current system of 1 month.

[ThePickleCat]

Scrap should be valid for dropping prices if a hat has been resold to the bot two or more times close together or even back to back. I wish I could remember what hat it was but someone tried selling me a hat that had been bought from and sold back to scrap by 4 owners in a row. That should be a valid reason to drop

 

Edit: found the hat http://backpack.tf/item/4817599302

[Cave]

Scrap.tf should be valid in dropping the value of a hat, if it has been sold to scrap.tf several times in a row after being acquiried by a new owner.

[Foamy the Fearsome]

 

Argument #1: People don't look for the hats they want on scrap.tf 

 The mods argument is that people don't look on scrap.tf for the hats they want to buy, and that is sort of true

Just to clarify: Im probably the only mod that's against using scraptf to drop everything to an extent . 

 

I know a ton of hats need the drop, and if something doesnt sell there for ages ánd doesnt get any other sales, then theres nothing I can do or say to favor my point. Problems arise however, when I see people that use scrap to flip hats and thén drop the hat. I've seen a suggestion (think it was the flies ywn), which has been there for a few weeks. Scraptf's prices change, so odds are it hasnt been there at that value for the full time (thats my main concern in general here. Even most accepted pricesuggestions based on scraptf sellers are wrong since the prices at the time the suggestion was to be accepted were different from those when the suggestion were made and from when the hat entered the bot).

 

Anyway, the person bought it and sold it instantly for items you can sell to a quickbuyer for 10 keys more. thats a prime example of how hats cán sell for more, but dont because not everyone that wants a hat checks scraptf. Ofc right after I made my point there, one of the sellers on the market changed his BO to support the drop further, so rip. In such cases Im more comfortable using the reselling value only. In all the other cases I just ramble about waiting for sales or checking for sales and leave it at that, and end up accepting when they've matured without any new evidence/insight.

 

However, that is - and only is - when there are no other sales. Especially with many in existence, people are often easier attracted to those that actively sell on outpost or bptf. Again - if in-game sales continuously happen higher than scraptf's price even when the hat is in the bot, then that case is a prime example of hats that can sell for more, but dont because not everyone checks scraptf. That works two ways of course; sometimes the drop based on a scraptf seller isnt enough, because all in-game sales are even lower. Happens less frequently, but in those cases too Im against using just a scraptf seller.

 

the basis of my problem with this probably goes beyond scraptf; Ive never been a fan of buyout drop suggestions, especially when its clear that people change their prices or neglect their trades. there too - in many cases, the suggested price isnt necessarily too low, but it can also be too high. Just wait for a hat to sell and make the suggestion thén. Cap it at the BO if it sold over the BO or price it at what it actually sold for if it was lower. Why rush? why make the suggestion before it sold? especially on 1:1 in existence hats, or 1:1 on the market hats even. The people that buy them can see the buyout for themselves; they already know that thats the asking price. BPtf price changing while hes selling doesnt change the insight of potential buyers, or anyone for that matter, and in many cases, the price would need to be re-adjusted after it sold because the selling value is often different from the actual buyout.

 

I've gotten off-track here, but that's my two (hundred) cents 

[polar]

Scraptf's prices change, so odds are it hasnt been there at that value for the full time (thats my main concern in general here.

 

https://scrap.tf/blog/posts/7

 

Geel himself says the dynamic pricing is a better reflection of the hat's value in PURE than waiting for suggesters to update hats after many months and have them try to figure out complex sales that can sometimes be wrong. If he says it's a good thing, then it must be good right??

 

Dynamic pricing is exactly how you determine an item's pure value. Try at 100 keys for a week. Then 90 keys for a week. Then 80 keys for a week. If it finally sells for 70 in a day, it doesn't mean that it's immediately labeled a quicksell and its real value is way higher than that. If it finally sells at 70 after a step-wise decrease over the course of weeks, then the selling point IS its value.

 

Anyways, I want to emphasize that no single source of proof overrides everything else. Everything we look at is in the context of the entire market - in the context of other sales, offers, even old sales. If after looking at all of that, the only information we have is a hat selling for a month on scrap.tf with a selling price of 50 when we list it at 100, then 50 is clearly more accurate than 100 and it desperately needs an update.

[Xergoyf]

Just to clarify: Im probably the only mod that's against using scraptf to drop everything to an extent . 

Wow, didn't notice you replyed. My thoughts on what you said.

 

Most of the hats that are being dropped like this are hats that have no other usable sales, being quicksold and bet left and right. I agree that if theres usable sales you shouldn't use scrap.tf as primary proof, which was my logic in this suggestion:

The fact that scrap.tf changes there prices would be an issue, but it usually doesn't change that much and the changes are usually "roundable" Sure, maybe there not 100% accurate, but you could make the argument that all scrap.tf unsolds are just being updated as "better than current" and can and should be adjusted with new sales - the issue is that most of these hyper-inflated hats simple​ never ​sell, so its hard to reprice them off anything else.

 

Your point on the flies ywnm imo is pretty rare case for these hyperinflated unusuals. I agree with what youd do in that case, however that is very uncommon. The seller got really lucky to find a buyer, but this isn't the case with most of these hats. Which is why a lot of people resell it back to scrap.tf

 

Right, this only real reason to use scrap.tf is if there are no other usable sales. For cheap hats, theres almost no reason to use scrap.tf because there will likely be another sale. The issue is the 100+ key hats that definitely wont be selling, and I'm fine with leaving them up for a month to see if any sales occur. 1 month unsold + another month to wait for more sales is plenty so updating then off scrap.tf is fine.

 

Sadly, and countrary to basic economics, the bp.tf price does ​matter a TON. This is because people don't want to lose inventory value, or because they simply paid too much for a hat. Even if I own a super cancerous inflated garbage hat I will ​still ​list if for the inflated price; and if I don't think It will sell, I will offer it to a million people (usually fails),try to upgrade with it (no usable sales there) or quicksell it; and if all else fails, sell it to scrap.tf. Lowering the bp.tf price matters a ton here because it will finally tell people to lower there b/os (and usually, the hat from scrap.tf will sell, allowing for potential usable sales) The truth is that for inflated unusuals, bp.tf is all that matters; sometimes a hat is so inflated that even if it gets updated from say 100 to 60, it will still never get any offers; but the difference is that when your offering it on other's better hats, its worth 60, not 100. When its worth 100 nobody will offer on a 50 hat when scrap.tf will pay 50 pure. However if its 60, people might actually offer it on a 50 key hat, in turn getting a usable sale. Again, you can now adjust based on real sales.