Is the market going to crash?

[Pootis bird]

I know many retarded people ask this question but keys are at an all time high and may be going to 27 refined very soon. They fluctuate in price now from 2.30 dollars to 2 and never go to the forties anymore. I am worried that if i stay the price of keys will go down further on the market and ill be able to make no profit. Should I cash out?

 

EDIT: I normally sell for a small profit of ref so my REAL question should be should i move back into higher tier trading like i used to do like ausis, a different form of pure

[DeadZoNeD]

didnt this game die like 3 years ago

[Pootis bird]

didnt this game die like 3 years ago

Not even close

[NotWarlizard]

 They fluctuate in price now from 2.30 dollars to 2 and never go to the forties anymore

 

This is due to steam sales.

[° ͜ʖ °]

Only the unusual taunts are going to crash so unless you invested in unusual taunts you should have nothing to worry about.

[Broson]

It's certainly not as alive as it used to be, but I think the TF2 economy is far from dead. As long as people still continue to use it, it will keep on going. The value of items won't have a great deal to do with that. I've seen SCM keys at $2.45 or so as recently as two months ago if I remember right. It's not keys that are at fault, it's that refined metal is getting more and more worthless. Keys are and have always been the most stable item economically in TF2.

[ksolis01]

This is the best time of the year to profit, trust me. Your specific question though, ref is an infinite resource with no sink, so it's only path is inflation unless on of those two conditions change. I personally like this inflation, bigger bang per key.

[iStruggle to Run it on Mac]

It will probably* go lower sometime next year. I've noticed the refined price for keys always gets high around this time of the year....

[TheVirtualEconomist]

Only the unusual taunts are going to crash so unless you invested in unusual taunts you should have nothing to worry about.

 

I am really confused. The taunt market is in no way going to crash. The only market that might take a dent is the pool party shenanigans with them now being more common instead of ultra rare.

[Gyro]

Key prices are going up, better make a meme about this - r/tf2

[° ͜ʖ °]

I am really confused. The taunt market is in no way going to crash. The only market that might take a dent is the pool party shenanigans with them now being more common instead of ultra rare.

So far I have seen so many unusual taunts with silver cyclone or mega strike already being sold at half of its price, people trying to cut eachother off in listings. I also understand that the more rare unusual taunts such as the pool party will have more in existance. The taunt market may not crash but the demand for them is going to an all time low

[Acid Rap]

no u r gonna crash  Cx

[Great Lasaga]

Okay

[Scootaloo]

Noooo! TF2's stuff is perfectly fine! -silently converts to cisgo-

[MrDeepDarkmind]

Noooo! TF2's stuff is perfectly fine! -silently converts to cisgo-

Hah Secretly CSGO is gonna die with the gloves 

[Pearly Gates]

Noooo! TF2's stuff is perfectly fine! -silently converts to cisgo-

^this

 

Hah Secretly CSGO is gonna die with the gloves 

I don't think it's gonna die because of gloves... but they really suck tho, don't even look that good ingame 

[OverduePixels]

Don't know yet but it has sure slowed down a lot. I remember selling all my unique items within a day, it was pretty easy. Nowadays, it takes days if not weeks to sell some unique items. There are more sellers than actual buyers. I feel like when Overwatch came out, it has impacted Tf2 a lot. I myself don't even play Tf2 anymore. Is it gonna crash soon? Can't tell either, don't want to sound negative and all but with Refined Metal going as low as $0.07, I feel like something drastic might happen to the market soon. Ref might not be seen as a currency anymore, people might switch to something else, but only time can tell.

 

Valve really done it with Ref. They didn't and aren't doing anything about it, which is causing it becoming worthless and Key fluctuating a lot in ref. I never thought it would go as high as 27.00 ref. Looks like with this rate, we will be hitting 30.00 ref by next month.

[Jessica]

Don't know yet but it has sure slowed down a lot. I remember selling all my unique items within a day, it was pretty easy nowadays, it takes days if not weeks to sell some unique items. There are more sellers than actual buyers. I feel like when Overwatch came out, it has impacted Tf2 a lot. I myself don't even play Tf2 anymore. Is it gonna crash soon? Can't tell either, don't want to sound negative and all but with Refined Metal going as low as $0.07, I feel like something drastic might happen to the market soon. Ref might not be seen as a currency anymore, people might switch to something else, but only time can tell.

 

Valve really done it with Ref. They didn't and aren't doing anything about it, which is causing it becoming worthless and Key fluctuating a lot in ref. I never thought it would go as high as 27.00 ref. Looks like with this rate, we will be hitting 30.00 ref by next month.

No, the reason there are so many uniques piling into the game is because of the new single/multiclass crates, this is why it's much harder to sell unique cosmetics. Ever since those crates came out those cosmetics have been dropping in price. People blame overwatch, but it's really not.

[OverduePixels]

No, the reason there are so many uniques piling into the game is because of the new single/multiclass crates, this is why it's much harder to sell unique cosmetics.

 

I know that but you can't deny the fact that there are far far more sellers now than actual buyers. 

 

Edit : Seems like you added some more.

 

Overwatch did have an impact on Tf2, Many Tf2 players moved on to Overwatch, myself included. It may have not impacted the market by a lot but it did shift many players / pros to Overwatch.

[NotWarlizard]

So far I have seen so many unusual taunts with silver cyclone or mega strike already being sold at half of its price, people trying to cut eachother off in listings. I also understand that the more rare unusual taunts such as the pool party will have more in existance. The taunt market may not crash but the demand for them is going to an all time low

 

Yeah it's called unusualifiers and the halloween taunts unboxed.

[womentigerthai]

Couple of years ago I predicted that key will sell for 20 refines. Most people laughed and thought I was crazy ~

[NotWarlizard]

Couple of years ago I predicted that key will sell for 20 refines. Most people laughed and thought I was crazy ~

 

I doubt it was a couple years ago, care to provide proof?

[Gren]

There won't be a crash.  But here's what's been happening as I see it: 

 

1.  Demand has gone down, meaning less people looking for items to buy.  However, I don't think it's gone down significantly, still plenty of people playing this game.

2.  Supply is always increasing.  Every update adds new cosmetics and floods the market.  Cosmetics were easy to sell when every class only had 3 or 4 miscs.  Now there's just so much choice. 

3.  No item sink.   There's no outlet for refined or craft hats.  There hasn't been a crafting event that gives low crafts in 2 years and it doesn't look like there ever will be again. 

 

I believe what we're currently seeing isn't exactly a crash, but the bottom of the economy (so basically everything worth less than a key) is dropping at such a fast rate that it's not profitable anymore, unless you're trading in massive numbers of items.  

 

I've been saying this for years: this could all be fixed with an item sink.  Give me a reason to craft and I will craft.  Trade-up contracts are a start, but they're not ideal for TF2 seeing how the majority of items is still in the old - non-CSGO - format.  

[Happysedits]

far from dead 

yet